What might the future hold for Scotland’s Seabirds?

Phil Taylor, Seabird Centre Trustee and Head of Policy at Open Seas

Seabird Centre Trustee and Head of Policy and Operations at Open Seas, Phil Taylor, shares his thoughts on climate change, renewable energy and what this could mean for our seabird populations.

As members of the Seabird Centre will only be too aware, Scotland’s seabird populations have struggled over the past 40 years. Things have become increasingly desperate year-on-year - Fair Isle reportedly recorded its lowest ever kittiwake population this year, puffin counts are well down in Shetland and Arctic skua numbers are falling to such a degree that they may soon stop breeding around our coasts entirely.

So what does the future hold for our seabird populations, and more importantly, what can we at the Centre do to conserve them?

Without doubt, our climate is changing. In our seas this is happening in serious ways. A 2°C change in climate will not only mean our seas become warmer, it will also mean a half metre rise in sea level by 2100, about a 25% increase in ocean acidity and that the Gulf Stream reduces in strength by a third.

Unfortunately, climate change is a doubleedged sword for our seabirds, renewable energy is both our best hope of mitigating climate change, and competes for space with seabirds in our sea. In Scotland we are now expecting to see about 4 GigaWatts of offshore wind built in the Outer Forth banks (this is around the same amount as all onshore developments combined). Is this the right place for such developments? They have the potential to displace razorbills, guillemots and puffins from their feeding grounds, to act as a barrier for gannets trying to reach distant feeding sites and to collide with and kill kittiwakes in the air – but they will significantly reduce disruption caused by climate change, and its impact on our seas and seabirds.

Critically, we need to figure out a way to ensure such developments can be built alongside and without harm to our seabirds – this is made more urgent by the fact that there is potential for more renewables. Governments have had the tools to designate and protect areas of sea for around 40 years and in 2016 Scottish Government committed to using them, designating a suite of ‘Special Protection Areas’ in our sea – these included the waters in the Forth up through St Andrews Bay to Carnoustie and south to St Abbs. Unfortunately, little progress has been realised in the 2 years, and such protection is yet to be given. These sites remain simply proposals on paper, without legal protection and without a clear plan of how they might be used to recover the seabird populations we have watched decline and disappear. Whether it be offshore wind, fishing, marine traffic or any other use, our activity in the sea needs to be balanced and thoughtfully planned out alongside our wildlife. If those in power continue to overlook this problem, they will hamper not only our seabird futures, but the ability of these industries to make progress themselves.

The future is opaque, our climate will change and with it so will our seas, its impact on our seabirds is less clear. However, in profound and meaningful ways, we now have an opportunity to decide that future. Renewables genuinely have the potential to deliver a sustainable future, but this is only possible if done alongside protection, and honest consideration of our seas and seabirds.

Guillemots