2.4 Uses in La Parguera

Figure 29. Grounding on Margarita Reef, La Parguera and damage to coral September 2009 (photo credit M. Nemeth). matter, González-Liboy (1979) reported intense impacts in the channel near Magueyes Island that caused significant patchiness of seagrass beds in this area. More recently, Otero and Carrubba (2006) documented major propeller scar impacts in various locations including shallow areas near Magueyes Island, Cayo Caracoles and Cayo Collado back reefs, where 43-74% of the area potentially affected by boat traffic showed damage due to propeller scarring. Uhrin and Holmquist (2003) found that shrimp and mollusk abundances were lower in scars compared to the undisturbed areas, although the impacts to the seagrass community at a larger scale were not determined. In addition, boating impacts are prevalent in the back reefs of keys and in shallow channels due to the heavy transit of vessels (Otero and Carrubba 2006). Some areas of La Parguera are consistently impacted by large numbers of vessels that anchor, scar the seafloor, and re-suspend sediments in shallow marine habitats (Figure 28). Over the years, several emergent coral reefs have been impacted by recreational vessel groundings. At least two recreational vessels grounded during the past 5 years in La Parguera. Part of one of these vessels hull was pushed onto the back reef zone of Corral reef and another was removed from Margarita Reef (Figure 29), both important fishing areas and perceived as having a high biodiversity. As a response to these events, an emergency restoration was conducted by the NOAA Restoration Center at the latter site to re-attach corals to the fore-reef. However the extent of groundings similar to these on the reefs of La Parguera is hard to determine due to the lack of reports and documentation. Quantification of the impacts of recreational use upon the habitats of La Parguera is essential for appropriate assessment of the ecosystem.

4.3 Global scale disturbances

It is widely accepted that bleaching and coral reef infectious diseases are two factors that have become major players in the deterioration of coral reef condition over the last two decades (Weil 2004). CRES researchers devoted a considerable amount of effort studying the prevalence and distribution of these conditions in La Parguera. Coral diseases and syndromes generally occur in response to biotic stresses such as bacteria, fungi and viruses, and/or abiotic stresses such as increased seawater temperatures, ultraviolet radiation, sedimentation, and pollutants. The patchiness and irregular distribution of coral diseases and bleaching is related to differences in the distribution, composition, and abundances of susceptible species and the environmental conditions and susceptibility of hosts and/or pathogens to disturbed environments (Appeldoorn et al. 2009). Bleaching events Bleaching is the whitening of corals and other endosymbiotic taxa due to the expulsion of photosynthetic symbiotic algae. The intensity and frequency of bleaching has increased during the last three decades in La Parguera, after the benchmark observations made by Goenaga et al. (1989). Although a number of environmental conditions may lead to bleaching, temperature is widely accepted as one of the primary causes (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007). Data from La Parguera of 1966 to 1995 indicate that there is a strong relationship between severe bleaching and cumulative heat stress, but reports do not necessarily indicate the exact mechanisms correlating temperature to the onset or severity of bleaching (Winter et al. 1998). Mass bleaching events have occurred periodically worldwide, and in the Caribbean at least seven recent events have been reported. Puerto Rico had various bleaching events since 1985, four of which occurred between 1998 and 2006. Bleaching has been observed under slightly elevated sea surface temperatures, extended periods of calm seas, clears skies and high water transparency which increase the penetration of solar radiation (Goenaga et al. 1989, Winter et al. 1998). The assessment of the 2005 bleaching event in southwest and west Puerto Rico by Hernández-Delgado revealed that 65% of 4,000 corals examined exhibited bleaching, with highest occurrence of bleaching found in La Parguera of which 42% were fully bleached and 31% partially bleached (García-Sais et al. 2008). While most attention has been given to the coral species of the Scleractinian taxa, a number of studies in Puerto Rico and La Parguera have observed the physiology and behavior of octocorals, species that show a slightly different response to environmental stressors. Prada et al. (2009) surveyed La Parguera octocorals in in November of 2005, noticing that a number of them showed different levels of susceptibility to bleaching, suggesting differences in temporal patterns which implies a higher tolerance to thermal stress of octocorals compared to the other major cnidarian taxa. It follows that bleaching of octocorals was preceded by bleaching in scleractinian corals, hydrocorals, and the some zoanthid species (Prada et al. 2009). In La Parguera, the combined effect of the 2005 bleaching event and mortality due to subsequent disease, led to a failure of sexual reproduction in Acropora spp. and Montastraea spp. in 2006, as reported by Ballantine et al. (2008).That same year (2005) researchers conducted a survey to assess the extent of coral mass mortality after the bleaching event, to find out that La Parguera exhibited a higher percentage of partial mortality (5.4%) when compared to sites off the west coast 1.4 - 2.8% (García-Sais et al. 2008). Indeed, coral mortality was compounded by outbreaks of white plague type II (WP-II) and yellow band disease (YBD) that seemed to target the Montastraea species complex after the peak of the 2005-bleaching event. The colonies of Montastraea spp. experienced a massive loss of live tissue (an average of 50-60%) at the intermediate and deeper habitats of Turrumote Reef in that same period (García-Sais et al. 2008). These rather dramatic effects of bleaching on the coral reef communities are characterized by a suite of physiological responses that include: (1) death, (2) increased vulnerability to disease, (3) reduced reproduction and (4) shifts in community structure (Edmunds 2000, Harvell et al. 2002, Weil et al. 2009). Diseases

Since the mid 1990’s, coral reef disease research in Puerto Rico has yielded important information on the number, distribution, prevalence, and impact of the most common diseases.

Several reef localities in Puerto Rico and La Parguera have been studied intensively (Cróquer and Weil 2009). A number of recent studies have shown that coral cover continued to decline rapidly (e.g., 53% in the last 4 years) and most unexpectedly, that the number and prevalence of diseases is higher in reefs located at a distance from the developed coastal areas (Appeldoorn et al. 2009),suggesting perhaps a more complex suite of variables involved, including climate change, among others. Research on coral reefs of Puerto Rico has demonstrated that WP-II and YBD are the most widespread and damaging diseases affecting scleractinian corals in Puerto Rico. The first reports of WP-II are from 1995 and since 1999 the prevalence has increased for shallow and deep reefs across the insular shelf of La Parguera (Bruckner and Bruckner 1997). The coral diseases, particularly white band disease, have caused significant declines in Acropora palmata since 1980 when it was first reported. There are some indications that YBD may be associated to one or more types of Vibrio spp. and the potential pathogenicity could be affected by temperature (Appeldoorn et al. 2009). A difference in the mucous layers of corals has been found in healthy vs. diseased M. faveolata colonies, and it seems to be specific to cellulose degradation and nitrification which suggests physiological changes in the coral that allows the pathogens and other microorganisms to colonize (Kimes et al. 2010). Research has revealed that a diverse micro biota exists on coral mucus which can be altered when corals are under stress. Some of these changes have been documented in gorgonians affected with aspergillosis (Gil-Agudelo et al. 2006). Ocean Acidification

On a global scale, changes in the atmosphere and climate are producing a chain reaction in a number of physical and chemical processes that are transforming the oceans. Increases in temperature, produced by the greenhouse effect (caused by increased emission and accumulation of CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere and the oceans), and the rise in sea level are responsible for dramatic changes in ocean and coastal habitats, ecological processes, species behavior (for example, in corals) and the composition and behavior of the oceans at a planetary scale.

The rise in seawater temperature is one of the most commonly cited causes of coral bleaching and may have led to the increased incidence of coral disease after major bleaching events in La Parguera. One dramatic consequence of the rise in levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is a decrease in pH, a process also known as ocean acidification. The result of this change is the degree of supersaturation that strongly controls the ease at which calcium carbonate minerals can be precipitated from the seawater. This is important for most reef building species, as well as for some important commercially important species for local fisheries. The combination of these factors draws a bleak scenario for coastal communities such as La Parguera. A feasible prediction is that reduced reef accretion due to rising temperatures and acidification combined with increased sea level will undoubtedly make the social component of the shoreline (communities, settlements, infrastructure, economic activities, livelihoods) more vulnerable to natural events (storms, hurricanes) and probably less resilient (in ocean, atmospheric and geophysical terms). An ocean acidification study is being conducted in La Parguera and provides an opportunity for monitoring carbonate chemistry dynamics across the ecosystem (Meléndez et al. 2011). Preliminary results have detected higher acidification during winter and spring months. This is an important area of research, with a bearing on our understanding of the Socio-Ecological System of La Parguera that deserves more attention.

Chapter 5 - The Complexity of the Social-Ecological System of La Parguera: The Case Study of a Local Fishery

We define the social-ecological system as the collection of habitats, land and sea formations, human presence, species, habitats and climatic conditions that form complex relationships and support interactions among its sectors. A social-ecosystem is dynamic and for the purposes of this document we are scaling the area geographically to the limits of the Lajas municipality. Appendix 3 contains a graphical representation of the social-ecosystem in the context of La Parguera, and includes a schematic of scientific information available, possible actions and reactions as well as other features that have been identified during our research and expert consultation. This is by no means a complete conceptual map since the scientific community perceptions were recorded and provide a starting point for mapping the social-ecosystem. For this section only the main categories will be discussed as the importance of the elements is how they are interacting and some of these relationships have been mapped, although many probable remain undocumented. A useful result of this exercise has been the identification of gaps in the scientific knowledge that would lead to a better understanding of impacts of the complex relationships and what information is necessary to adapt management of the area following an ecosystem-based approach. The main categories under which different themes were organized include: water, the watershed, climate, sediment dynamics, habitats, biological populations, the human population and a grouping of restoration science. Water is viewed as an important element that connects the other elements of the marine environment with the neighboring areas and activities that shape the ecosystem. Various studies have measured water quality and changes in the optic characteristics of seawater off La Parguera. However long-term monitoring of the coastal waters is lacking, which limits any conclusions about the changing conditions of the ecosystem. A high resolution map indicating the flow dynamics of these near shore waters would also help determine the movement of these water masses and the particles they transport. The watershed has a high degree of connection with the other main elements from which activities and impacts were identified. Many of the processes that were identified as detrimental to the ecosystem are originated in the watershed, including sedimentation, pollution, and habitat deterioration. However many of these processes need to be measured from their source and throughout the ecosystem in order to determine the direction of the gradient of anthropogenic impacts. Habitats are subdivisions of the ecosystem that contain similar characteristics and support several of the biological populations. The habitats of La Parguera support most of the productivity of the ecosystem and are influenced to different degrees depending on their location and patterns of use. The perceptions of how to categorize habitats are variable and in La Parguera much attention has focused on coral reef habitats as they provide much of the structure and diversity to the ecosystem. However the combination of the associated habitats is what makes the ecosystem of La Parguera so unique. The connectivity between habitats has been identified as an important process shaping the ecosystem. For example water quality was probably maintained by the wetland habitats’ function of trapping sediments and organic matter near shore. This allowed a filtration of rainwater and runoff from the watershed that limited the sediments and other particles reaching the waters. As these habitats were destroyed, the functions they provided were reduced and the water quality impacted, leading to changes in the ecosystem, as we know it today.

In La Parguera at least 6 major habitat classifications were identified, including: wetlands, bioluminescent bays, seagrass, mangroves, coral reefs and unconsolidated sediments. Each habitat can be further characterized and subdivided based on its location, benthic composition and ecological functions. Currently a benthic habitat map has identified most of the submerged habitats for La Parguera (Pittman et al. 2010). However the representation of near shore habitats is incomplete due to the limitations that aerial photography presents in turbid waters. The lack of transparency in many coastal areas of La Parguera resulted in the ‘unknown’ classification for benthic habitats that are perhaps the most directly impacted in this ecosystem. Although many of the habitats, uses, and impacts have been mapped these are dispersed in various location. Different methodologies over time allow for better interpretation of data that has been collected on the habitats over time. All benthic habitat-mapping products would serve a wider purpose if they were available and utilized by subsequent projects and integrated for improvement and application to other research questions. The biological populations of the marine organisms of La Parguera have been the focus of many investigations throughout the years at the Department of Marine Sciences. The bibliography of theses and dissertations generated here provide information of almost all the groups of biota in La Parguera. Pittman et al. (2010) reported that many of these populations are distributed throughout the habitats of La Parguera and spatial distribution of reef fishes and benthic organisms is available. One of the most notable findings of this study was the lack of large bodied fishes and the smaller sizes of commercially important species that supported a productive fishery for La Parguera in the past (i.e. Mutton snapper). Despite searching during 7 years in over 1,000 surveys, only a handful of commercially important reef fishes have been documented in La Parguera wide studies. Although the metrics on fisheries landings for La Parguera are not available over the same time frame, the condition of the biological populations is thought to have decreased, significantly affecting the condition of the ecosystem. Perhaps the most important of the biological populations in terms of the ecosystem of La Parguera is the human population. Many of the historical and current behaviors of the humans have shaped the ecosystem and remain an inextricable part of La Parguera. The quantity and quality of human activities in La Parguera is constantly acting upon the other elements identified in this model. These actions and subsequent impacts provide a significant source of complexity to the social-ecological system. Unfortunately these impacts and activities are less studied than other components of the ecosystem and require quantification and mapping in order to address them adequately. Finally climatic influences are a significant factor in shaping the environment and the ecosystem of La Parguera. Changes due to climate that have been observed affecting some elements of the social-ecological model include increased coral bleaching, changes in precipitation, and storm impacts. The expectation is that climatic changes will continue to influence the ecosystem in the years to come and the complexity of this model will increase with time.

5.1 Fishing in La Parguera

Understanding fishers’ behaviors is critical for the construction of the social-ecological system in a coastal tropical environment such as La Parguera. Fishers (Figure 30) are one of the key users of the natural resources, and thus are important stakeholders, who know and traverse most habitats, coastal and marine. The main assumption and reason for integrating fishers into an ecological assessment is the fact that they engage in extractive activities that impact species, stocks, and habitats. Their activities modify the environment and impose ecological relationships with the milieu and biological populations. The CRES Report (ValdésPizzini 2009) documented a number of activities and characteristics of the fishermen of La Parguera based on a number of sources, including the data from the DNER’s Fisheries Research Laboratory (Laboratorio de Investigaciones Pesqueras). Fishing in La Parguera, as defined in this report, is performed by a variety of fishers, such as recreational anglers, sport fishermen (in the pelagic waters, beyond the insular shelf), subsistence fishers throughout the coast, forest gatherers (pesca de monte, as labeled by other fishers in the south coast, García Quijano, personal communication) targeting mangrove oysters and clams, and small-scale commercial fishers from Cabo Rojo to Guánica.

Figure 30. Small-scale artisanal fishing vessel of southwestern Puerto Rico (photo credit M. Schärer).

In other words, the seascape, habitats, and marine populations of La Parguera are targeted by a diversity of fishers from various socioeconomic groups. They reach those resources from the Club Náutico, the de-facto marina of the stilt houses (and the hundreds of informal slips they collectively contain), the countless informal piers sprouting from the fringing mangrove forest, on foot from the shoreline, the two or three makeshift ramps, and the three or four recognized fishing piers. Over the years, we have collected information of the most important variables relevant for the analysis of the extractive activities in which the fishermen are involved: fishing areas, gears employed, and the species they target. The Fisheries Research Laboratory collects information on the commercial fishers’ landings, while there is no published information on the sport and

recreational anglers, except for creel census data in unpublished reports. Ecological systems are complex, and the incorporation of the human factor in the analysis increases complexity. Our argument in this document is that each component of the human system, actors, agents, stakeholders, for example, is connected to the habitats, and bring an array of social and economic relationships (energy and information) into the system that shape the human-nature interface. Those relationships are directly related to their extractive endeavors, but go beyond the extractive process, and put forth the kinship, labor, political and cultural / cognitive relations that determine their level and intensity of participation in the system, including governance. Figure 31 represents the diverse components of the relationships, and processes, related to the fishers, as well as their ramifications and connections with the ecological system.

Figure 31. A conceptual map of fisher’s behavior.

How many fishers? Since fishers are, as many other resource users, an elusive sort, it is quite difficult to assess their number. Indeed, fishers avoid the state’s strategies of containment, such as: censuses, surveys, interviews, and even licenses and permits. In Puerto Rico, a number of events, such as the NOAA sponsored marine sanctuary, and the deployment of the Fisheries Regulations in 2004, moved the fishers to stop participating in the fisheries landing program of the DNER (Valdés-Pizzini 1990; Matos-Caraballo et al. 2007). The 2008 fishers’ census data from the DNER, Fisheries Research Laboratory, was recently published, providing information on the general socioeconomic characteristics of the fishers. The summary stated: (1) the number of fishermen dwindled from previous censuses, (2) The Fisheries Law, regulations, permits and closures forced a number of individuals out of the fisheries, mainly those who worked part-time, and (3) there is a pattern of fishermen non-compliance, which licenses and permits requirements may have exacerbated. Based on the database of the 2008 Fishers Census, we estimate that there are 85 fishers using the coastal and marine resources of La Parguera, 32 from Guánica, and 53 from the municipality of Lajas. Twenty-one fishers from Cabo Rojo, live and land their catch in areas close to La Parguera: Corozo, Punta Águila and Combate. There are an unspecified number of harvesters of mangrove oyster who occasionally engage in pesca de monte, gathering ostiones or oysters (Cassostrea rhizophorae) in the roots of the red mangrove forest, west of La Parguera town. It is safe to state that the number of commercial, small-scale, fishermen operating in the habitats of La Parguera range from 85 to 106. From Lajas, most fishers are from Papayo (17), La Parguera (16) and Salinas-Fortuna (10). The majority of the fishers accounted in the census was full-time fishermen, and most reported not having a license. In fact, the census database shows that the fishers, across the board, contented the containment strategy of the government, by stating they did not have licenses, not reporting having one, and suppressing their names (and even nicknames) from the DNER enumerators who collected the data.

Fishermen from Lajas target reef fishes, conch, lobster and snappers and groupers from the shelf drop-off, or veril. The fishers of Guánica have the same pattern of resource exploitation, but they also target pelagic species, to a greater extent that their peers from Lajas. Most fishers from the area interviewed for the census stated that the status of the fisheries’ resources remain similar as in years past. However, fishers from Guánica tend to be a bit more pessimistic and a handful of them (3) perceived that the condition of the resources was worst now, due to contamination, habitat destruction, and overfishing. Informal labor strategy Engagement in a number of informal activities, not reported, or illegal, is part of the socioeconomic landscape of La Parguera. Although we do not have information on the current status of those activities, nor is it an appropriate activity for us, it suffice to say that over the past fifteen years a handful of fishers from Guánica and Lajas have been prosecuted for drug trafficking. The coastline of La Parguera is heavily monitored by police and Homeland Security in order to intercept drug and human trafficking operations. Pluriactivity La Parguera was, until the last U.S. Census, one of the few coastal communities of the west coast that had a high percentage of the employed population working in the area. The University of Puerto Rico Marine Sciences Department, and its Magueyes Marine Station is one of the main employers, and historically had workers that were also fishermen. In the past, the community had a large number of businesses that recruited the employees from the local community: The Club Náutico, Varadero (shipyard), hotels, guest houses, restaurants, stores, water-based recreational services (wind-surfing, boat rentals, and SCUBA diving), and the boat service outfits taking the public to the bioluminescent bays. There are several government facilities and satellite offices that also provide job opportunities for the local population, such as: the public school, the Headstart program, Playita Rosada public beach (now administered by the municipality of Lajas), Mata la Gata public beach (managed by DNER), and the DNER’s Rangers and RNLP offices. This array of posts, outfits and job opportunities do not exist at the other coastal settlements encompassed by the RNLP and the La Parguera region, except for the few public service and hospitality industry jobs in Guánica.

Livelihood diversification is indeed one strategy used by fishermen to cope with uncertainty particularly as it relates to regulations, scarcity of fish, or variability in the stocks. However, the new regulations discouraged part-time fishers and, overall, the number of fulltime fishermen increased in the last six years, reducing engagement in pluriactivity in La Parguera. Political actions: protests, non-compliance with regulations, or reporting obligations Fishers engage in a number of activities to resist and contest government actions and regulations, and the fishers of La Parguera are not the exception. The practice of contesting the government actions started with the perceived “threat” of a NOAA’s Marine Sanctuary in the early 1980s (Fiske 1992). The Fisheries Law and Regulations also provoked the same sentiment and actions, as stated above. Data from the census show that there is a pattern of non-compliance with government exigencies, such as licenses and permits. That assertion is inferred from the data (Matos-Caraballo et al. 2007), but there is no study on the process. A social network of kin and friends

The fishing community is usually a localized settlement, but it is also a network of friends and relatives, helping and serving as a safety net in duress, and contributes to the resilience of local, traditional (and place-based) coastal communities (Griffith et al. 2007). Fishers in this region are mostly tied by kinship ties formed by clusters of relatives and their friends, in La Parguera, Papayo and Salinas Fortuna (and Montalva), Guaypao (Guánica), and Corozo (Cabo Rojo). Non-containment

As stated above, the fishers of La Parguera are indeed fishing, most of the time, under the radar of government agencies. They also refuse to be accounted for and identified for the Census.

Government monetary transfers The subsistence strategy incorporates transfer from government programs: retirement, social security, food stamps, and other aids. There is no information on this aspect of the fishers’ livelihood. In the town of La Parguera, there is large number of fishers that are retirees and therefore receive their pensions, probably handling their household economies with a diversified strategy consisting of: fish for their tables, fish for the market and cash, pensions, social security, and some odd jobs (chiripas) that remain unreported as other economic activity (Griffith and Valdés-Pizzini 2002). Dispersal of crewmembers In many fishing areas throughout the Caribbean, coastal demographic growth and gentrification have caused the dispersal of households and crewmembers throughout the landscape. That is the case of St. Croix, for example (Valdés-Pizzini et al. 2010). Data from the fishers’ census suggest that the fishing units are recruiting crewmembers from the local communities, as the total number of available fishermen has been reduced from the potential pool of participants. If the information from the database is correct, it is appropriate to assume that part-timers left the fishery, and many others, from surrounding communities, were discourage to participate. Thus, the majority of those engaged in fishing come from the “traditional” coastal communities in rural areas or homesteads (parcelas), with only a few that reported living in other barrios or quarters. The reduction in the number of fishers may have caused the social and kin homogenization of the crews and the fishing firms.

5.2 Engagement in fisheries’ management

Fishing is a form of management, however, fishers also engage in a number of social and political interactions conducive to a debate on the conservation of resources. In La Parguera (from Cabo Rojo to Guánica) the debate is centered on the following arguments: (1) There is no mechanism or process for the appropriate and democratic participation of the fishers in the management process, a situation that was exacerbated, in their view, during the implementation of the Fisheries Law, (2) The lop-sidedness of enforcement, and the perceived abuse of the DNER Rangers on their livelihood and behaviors, (3) The weight of Commonwealth and Federal regulations and procedures, (4) Lack of access to the deliberations (although one local fisherman was the head of the Caribbean Fishery Management Council, fifteen years ago). When asked by government agents (DNER) about the conditions and the problems of the local fisheries, interviewees do not recognize overfishing as a problem and, according to the census data, in La Parguera things remain the same. However, when key informants are queried on this matter, they recognize that fishing pressure is increasing and that overfishing is also a factor, jointly with contamination, competition from recreational anglers, and habitat destruction. Our interviews in 1998, 2006 and focus groups in 2004 (the latter two with the CRES project) show that fishers recognize several problems, including: overfishing, DNER Rangers’ abuse of power, deficiencies in the landing data collected by the DNER, an increase in the number of fishers (circa 2000), the presence of “dead areas” due to sedimentation (GarcíaQuijano 2006), the human impact on the watersheds and the sedimentation of coastal and marine habitats, including the shelf drop-off in the Guánica area, and the lack of an open and democratic participation of the stakeholders in the management process. As fishers are criminalized, and their Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) not recognized (a situation that is changing due, in part, to the results of the CRES project), they remain separated from management. Indeed, they underscore the argument that, due to their TEK, they should also be incorporated in management, via research design and implementation. Their arguments hit the bull’s-eye on the objectives of an ecosystem approach to management strategy that incorporates stakeholders and their forms of wisdom and knowledge.

5.3 Local Ecological Knowledge applied to fishing

Our research on the relationship between fishers and coral reef resources underscored the fact that these stakeholders do have a traditional (or local) form of knowledge on the environment, the species and their ontogenetic behavior, bio-physical temporality, seasonality, the form, shape and composition of the seascape, and a schema of the ecological relationships, based on their systematic observation (and testing) of environmental variables, through fishing, and the sharing of information (García-Quijano 2006; Valdés-Pizzini and García-Quijano 2009). Previous research had shown that the fishers in Puerto Rico (and those of La Parguera) consistently use a system of fish classification based on their habitat and behaviors (Valdés-Pizzini et al. 1996 a,b). An analysis of data collected in the 1990s