My thoughts on Ukraine Seeds

of Defeat

Dictatorships are sometimes born with uplifting slogans and considerable enthusiasm evidencing or at least pretending to be populist movements. Sometimes the futuredictatorwinsinaperfectlyrealandfair(asopposed to rigged) elections. Not that it will take long for dark ideas and nasty currents to spread cancer-like like tentacles within society. It all develops quicker and stronger when it is unchallenged and unopposed, especially if met by the quiet complicity of citizens. But what no dictator ever realizes is that the very same quiet complicityisactuallythefirstseedofhisdefeat.

Some historians speculate (because there is no evidence) that Hitler, while looking at the tomb of Napoleon, was thinking of outdoing him. Napoleon as we know had practically the entirety of Europe in his hands. Hitler, who had just easily conquered France, felt confident and wanted more - the world perhaps? - or at leastabigchunkofit.

Contemplating Peter the Great, Vladimir Putin is possibly dreaming of outdoing him. After all, the Red Army conquered one of the greatest or at least one of the most murderous dictators ever, namely Hitler (in Russian narration the D-day and theWestern front was always and still is being played down by the way, as if the Soviet’s effort was greater and more important). Putin himself expressesadmirationforPetertheGreatandforwhatused tobetheSovietUnion.

Hitler easily grabbedAustria and Czechoslovakia, then in a blitzkrieg conquered and together with Stalin, carved up Poland. He then ran with not much difficulty over Denmark, Belgium and Holland and in the next move, in an even shorter war (than the one with Poland) he conquered France. You could say this was his finest moment which may have given him confidence to move on Russia. He was well aware of Napoleon’s failure in his Russian campaign and was determined not to repeat Napoleon’smistakes.

Similarly Putin easily grabbed a piece of Georgia, subdued Chechnya, just as easily annexed Crimea and established the separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine (nobody really believes that the separatist regions created themselves, just like nobody believes the referenda in those regions carried out last September were real and fair). He gained confidence to move on Ukraine which no doubtwasonhislistforalongtimeanyway.

For dictators the road from confidence to overconfidence is very short. After so much easy successes who is out there to oppose me? And this is anotherseedofdefeat.

Hitler outlined his attack on Russia not as an act of a conventionalwarbutasaclashofsuperiorvsinferior.The opponent’s (Russians) were to be looked as the worst kind of humans intended to be made extinct by the superior race. Note another analogy to Putin’s narrative about Ukrainians being Nazis, not worthy to have their independentandsovereignstate,beingwesternpawnsetc.

Initial progress of Hitler’s armies attacking the Soviet Union was spectacular and it seemed they would be in Moscow in a matter of a few weeks at most and in fact German units did reach the suburbs of Moscow. In a similar way Putin thought he would have Ukraine in a coupleofdays

In preparation for war with the Soviet Union, when asked to equip his military for winter conditions Hitler refused. He believed he’d conquer Russia and be in Moscow before winter would set in. Confident of his superiority he also refused to provide more tanks when oneofhiscommandersrequestedthem.

We see similarity again in ill prepared Russians losing to Ukrainians, combined with the assumption the conflict would be over in a matter of a rather short time. Surrounded by “yes” men Putin, like Hitler was probably not even considering listening to any contradictory opinions,nevermindvoicesofreason. The“yes”menare generally afraid of contradicting their boss and even more afraid of bringing bad news to him as either one could spell falling out of grace, jail time or worse. Therefore as timegoesbythepictureadictatorseesisgettingmoreand moredifferentfromreality.Andthisisyetanotherseedof defeat.

Lies and accusations are instruments some dictators reach for because as tools for their propaganda they are cheap and easy to use. Basically you invent whatever you likeandthrowitasaccusationatthetargetofyourchoice. It is ironic that waging this war against “fascists in Ukraine” the Russian government looks more and more likeafascistregimeitself.Overlookingthefactthatitwas Putin who started the war with Ukraine, he is asking who started attacks at water supplies and energy distribution centres. The ever favourite accusation blaming the (collective) West for the war in Ukraine just does not go away. But – whether Mister Putin and his government like it or not, nobody buys their lies and absurd accusations andthesearenothingbutseedsofdefeat.

Synthesisofthoseseedsleadstocollapseoftheregime because in the grand scheme of things the truth prevails and any system that lives by lies and corruption is always rotting. This is why and how dictatorships perish and this isthefateofPutin’sgovernment. Astowhen–itdepends to some degree on the world community. There are countries that still do not condemn this war (like the Communist China, India or SouthAfrica). I suspect they do so just to oppose the West. Those countries are only playing to the Russian hand even if only for some short termgain.

In practical terms it depends on how well and how fast we help Ukraine with the military equipment they need so much. InmoraltermstheRussianFederationlostthiswar theminuteitcrossedthebordertoinvadeUkraine.

Regimes and dictators fail and collapse because they are built on lies and abuse and these are seeds of defeat as well.

Wojtek Migdalski