How To Start Profitable Investing in the NBA

By JFEN (Jeff Fenster)

So you are looking to invest in the NBA! Well, I think you are making a very smart financial decision. There is a TON of money to be made in the NBA if you know how to find it! The information here is solely for rookies who are just getting started and should be used as a guide to keep you out of trouble.

LETS BEGIN!!

In the NBA, you have two teams that are usually not equally matched in a game where players have the biggest impact on the outcome. What I mean by this, is…. In the NBA, there are only 5 guys on the floor and they play both ways. Offense and Defense. The best player can more significantly impact the outcome then in other sports like MLB, NFL. That is why there is a lottery system for draft picks in the NBA and the worst team

is not guaranteed the 1st overall pick. This is critical information as you look to analyze, invest and ultimately profit on this league.

So WHERE do we start…..

We start by understanding baselines and getting our minds right for investing. First principles of the JFEN system are that we use accepted public bias to our benefit. Big market teams tend to get bet on heavily by their big fan base, regardless of the true outcome. You can be certain that Lakers, Knicks, Celtics, Heat, Mavericks and Bulls will be over bet by their fan base then Bucks, Hawks, Bobcats, etc.

Power Rankings NBA http://zcodesystem.com/power_rankings.php

So when the lines open up and you see big market teams vs small market teams, understand that the line is weighted as Vegas knows this bias and has built a successful business by leveraging this knowledge. For example, if the Lakers were playing the Bucks and the true line should be Lakers -2, Vegas will and does set the line a few points off, like Lakers -4.5 knowing that the public will bet the Lakers.

They are using emotion against the public and know that Laker fans will take the worst of it (even if its unknowingly) with heavy dollars. Since the Bucks don’t command the same type of draw, the tickets will be LA heavy and that will push the line even further away from ‘TRUE’. This holds true to the Money Line as well.

So we look for opportunities where the line available is off the true line enough to warrant a play on the underdog (the Bucks in the above example). So the key point I’m making here is this, pay attention to big market teams vs small market teams. If the rest of the world is overlooking a small market team then there is a real opportunity to profit.

OK, I get it…. Now what?!?!?!

The NBA is VERY home court friendly. For some reason (not getting into it here), NBA referees tend to officiate very home friendly. The worst officiating league out of the big 4 Professional sports (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB) is the NBA without question. The refs have the biggest impact on the outcome and it should not be overlooked.

Also,

The NBA is VERY star driven. Most of the stars tend to play for the big market teams so be very careful taking Money Lines against them. Even though we just discussed how we look for small market teams, we ALWAYS take the points. The Money Line is very dangerous in the NBA. The best players usually win and so it makes taking Underdog Money Lines very dangerous. The books are very good at pricing the Money Lines in such a way that taking the Favorite is also unprofitable long term because no one wins every game.

As well,

It’s also important to know this… young teams will traditionally over foul at the end of the game then veteran teams. Coaches of young teams want to use every play as an opportunity to ‘teach’ their teams. So, if you are taking a young team

(bobcats) vs the Spurs for example and the line is Spurs -9.5. Although the line seems large, if the Cats are down by 8 with 12 seconds left, they are more likely to foul the Spurs and put them on the line so they can run another play. This cannot only cause you ulcers but also could cost you money.

So how do I put all this together and get started?

So, if you are going out on your own and not following one of the Z-Fam’s experts, I would suggest you abide by the following ROOKIE RULES as you are learning:

1. Money Management is everything, so never invest more than 1% of your bankroll on a play

2. NEVER give more than 7 points. If the line is -7.5 or worse, its not for you (although, as a rookie, I would be hesitant to even give this many points)

3. NEVER take the Money Line

4. NEVER take a game where the spread is under 3. +/- 3 is ok but if the line is +/- 2.5 or lower, its not for you

5. ALWAYS take home teams

6. Look for big market teams on the road vs Small Market teams and take the small market team

7. Look for Home Teams who are getting double digit points (+10 or better)

8. Don’t bet against HOT teams… If a team has won 3 or more straight, I would avoid betting against them until you have a system

9. Don’t take dogs…. If a team has lost 3 straight, I would avoid betting on them until you have a system

10. Check Lineups…. If your team is missing a main starter, AVOID.

I hope these tips help you get started investing in the NBA! It is a very profitable sport to invest in when done correctly! Once you have a better understanding and start building your own systems, you will divert from this playbook. This is simply a way for rookies to get started and make a bit of money! If you have any questions along the way, never hesitate to hit me up on the Wall or in my Thread!

~ JFEN (Jeff Fenster)