Secrets of Handicapping the NFL: How to Find an Edge

By Mark D.

Most of us are probably aware of the movie Two for the Money, a failed journey into professional handicapping by an emotionally fragile Matthew McConaughey. His character gets cocky, allowing overconfidence and emotion to rule his plays before falling apart down the stretch before flipping a coin on who will win the Super Bowl. Though just a movie, his story can be very real for some gamblers. There are two lessons to take away from this movie that I think actually have legitimate value in the sports investing world. First, there is no place for emotion in professional handicapping. Cold, calculating predictions are the only ones that can be successful in the long run. That’s where the Z-Code computer algorithm comes in so handy. It literally

takes emotion out of the game by projecting winners based on only the facts. Emotional handicappers make mistakes, and the computer helps keep you from chasing losses, chasing trap games, and making bad decisions. Utilizing this powerful algorithm as one parameter in a successful NFL system is crucial to the longevity of your profits. Secondly, Two for the Money famously suggests that the public doesn’t know what they’re doing when it comes to NFL handicapping. Public money gets games wrong and Vegas survives on their thrill-seeking approach to sports (and the 10% cut they rake on all games). In what was one of the most profitable seasons Vegas has ever had, that seems very apparent now. So how did we do it? How did we sustain profits through such a terrible NFL season for so many gamblers? How are we 8-2 in the NFL playoffs this year coming into the Super Bowl? The answer is simple; we’re not gamblers. My system is one of sports investing and discretion, not of thrill-seeking and biggame hunting. I filter my NFL picks through a variety of parameters that protect profits long-term and find the games that will produce the best picks each week. Some weeks we have as few as two or three games that fit the system. Other weeks, we attack more games. Discretion is not about quantity; it’s about being as selective as possible when choosing your spots. You cannot beat Vegas on every game and you shouldn’t try. My first parameter is public money. I watch to see which side of the game the general public is falling on and how the line is responding to their action. I try to ignore sharp money late in the week because I consider myself just as skillful as they are. I also think sharp money is incredibly predictable in most games. All I am looking for is a trend – that Vegas is pushing the public in an obvious direction. If they are, I pull back my confidence. If no such trap exists, I move forward in my system with confidence. Z-Code Line Reversal Tool from linereversals.com provides all the money-monitoring tools I need for my system.

The second parameter is the Z-Code computer algorithm. Before joining Z-Code I found myself betting nearly every game each week. I did not use proper money management, I did not seek consistency – I sought a big thrill of a 12-0 week. Now that I have a computer that helps alert me to where value is and what the likelihood of a cover is, I don’t chase. I look for the game where everything aligns and I attack. I also utilize the breadth of knowledge and experience of the Z-Code expert team in filtering my own picks. I have confidence in myself, but know that these handicappers also win on a consistent basis.

My greatest parameter of my system is obviously my own knowledge. I’ve been around NFL football my entire life, played sports in college, and know the game inside and out. I see the matchups, I note where I have concerns, and I analyze the games on my own. The key to beating Vegas is diligence and understanding. Watch the weather, watch the injuries and where they create value in a line, see where players simply will not be able to compete with one another. It is important to know team tendencies and how they might play out. Where my thorough analysis meets a public money scenario that is not unfavorable and the computer gives a strong signal, I make a play. Where public money or the computer suggest otherwise, I pull back. I don’t necessarily eliminate my play, but I lower the confidence I have in it and act accordingly. Really, it may sound simple, but that’s all it took this season and the past three seasons as a professional handicapper. Everything I do is published and verified, and I feel my system

is at its highest level of sophistication to date. I rely heavily on my knowledge of the sport and share that knowledge with all members of the Z-Code family, but I’ve grown in other ways. I also use the knowledge of others within that winning community we have built. I rely on the computer to keep my chases to a minimum and evaluate value according to the computer algorithm we utilize on all picks. Lastly, I’ve learned to utilize some elements of public money tracking to verify the position I should take.

When all parameters of the system align, and my personal evaluation of the game fits the output of the computer, a flat betting system can consistently beat Vegas. While others have wept this year, we’ve rode a consistent system to solid profits. This playoff season was one of my best ever, and I look forward to more years following the Z-Code algorithm and consistently winning together, as a community, with the rest of the Z-Code family.