Forecasting & Business Trend Journal by Shaina F Levin

FORECASTING & BUSINESS TREND JOURNAL

e n O y r t n E

4/3/14

Quality Versus Quanity American consumers want and need “fast fashion.” This trend in the retail market has brought up interesting issues for the fashion industry. Outsourcing production of clothes has become extremely easy and accessible. However, production costs have been on the rise due to increased wages and prices of raw materials. Keila Tyner, who has a PhD in textiles and clothing, wrote an article in QUARTZ called “The Case for Fewer-But Better-Clothes.” She believes Americans need to focus less on quantity and more on quality when shopping for themselves. Tyner points out that nowadays, Americans spend less of their income on clothing than they did from 1900-1950. Americans have gone from spending about 12-14% of their annual income on clothing to about 3%. I agree with Tyner when she writes, “we likely have more than five times as many clothing items as we did in the first part of the 20th century.” As an American consumer, I am constantly adding to my closet. Outsourcing production of clothes has allowed us to buy more, more often. Cheaper labor costs makes outsourcing attractive for huge companies, like H&M and Ralph Lauren because they want to satisfy their customers with accessible merchandise and appealing prices. The problem is our closets are being filled with low quality items. In addition, out of all of the clothing and shoes that Americans purchase, around 20% is actually worn throughout the season. Being a wasteful consumer encourages a wasteful American society. Tyner compares this American retail trend to the American food diet. Unhealthy habits take place as people accept taking in high calories with low nutrition. This high quantity, low quality mindset can be adjusted. Having a lifestyle change in diet as well as shopping can lead to a healthier consumer and economy. I believe something needs to change because production costs are increasing in popular manufacturing countries, such as China and Bangladesh. This means Americans will be spending more on clothing and shoes that have the same poor quality. If this becomes prevalent, it will leave little room for growth in the fashion industry. Americans need to make quality a priority like it was years ago. The importance of craftsmanship and detail not only fits better, but also lasts longer. This will eliminate wasteful manufacturing and most of all, the wasteful American consumer.

o w T y r Ent

4/13/14

Mannequins Make a Comeback

4/13/14

Retailers, such as Bergdorf Goodman, Nordstrom’s and Macy’s are focusing more on the presentation of mannequins. Since online shopping has become widespread, retailers are finding more ways to change the in-store shopping experience. Consumers may respond differently to mannequins because of variance in size, color, silhouette, proportions and position. Mannequins have an extensive history, but in recent years, artistic influences are responsible for innovative mannequins. In an article by Ray Smith called “Mannequins Make a Comeback,” he describes how these figures affect the way people shop. Just like retailers select designer brands and merchandise to target a cohort, mannequins are also portraying a personality or mood to attract customers. Bergdorf’s tattooed mannequins, Uniqlo’s see-through mannequins and Dick’s Sporting Goods’ athletic mannequins all represent a specific type of person. Target wants to test this possible influence “to see if mannequins will spur time-strapped shoppers to buy more clothes, perhaps by helping them skip the dressing room.” It seems as though high-end retailers want to change the look of mannequins while fast fashion retailers want to alter the concept of them. I believe this trend is opening opportunities for many different retailers. Customers would be more encouraged to shop in-stores if there were more innovative and purposeful displays. Having these figures pose a certain way with specific finishing and details bring brand presence and intrigue to customers. Mannequins emphasize how people think visually. It is important for retailers to focus on the presentation of their store. Visual displays as well as outfits on a mannequin can really influence customer’s willingness to purchase merchandise.

e e r h T y r Ent

4/20/14

The Business of Blogging Ari Seth Cohen is changing the way we market towards older generations. His blog, Advanced Style, was the first to target older women in 2008. The streets of New York City appealed to Cohen, as his grandmother became a huge inspiration to him. His discovery of finding a gap in the blogging industry has paved the way the fashion industry as well as other industries view older women and men. Lisa Wang wrote an article on Cohen in the Business of Fashion, which portrays him as a blogger, photographer, but mostly a marketer. Cohen says, “I did create a niche at a time when the population of older people is bigger than ever.” Taking photos of these women was just the beginning. Becoming friends with women in 60s, 70s and 80s helped Cohen understand their personalities and styles. He believes fashion comes naturally to this age group. The reason of this is clear in his bio on the blog’s website. Cohen writes, “Respect your elders and let these ladies and gents teach you a thing or two about living life to the fullest. Advanced Style offers proof from the wise and silverhaired set that personal style advances with age.” Cohen’s documentary on Advanced Style occurred recently, which will tell his story. Learning and studying old ladies has become a profitable business. Cohen’s blog has 24,564 Instagram followers and approximately 100,000 monthly blog visitors. The Advanced Style book, published in May 2012, is in its seventh round of printing. Earnings from these sales have provided Cohen 40% of his income last year. In order to promote his blog, Cohen has used Google Ads and AOL ad network as resources. The ad revenue and image licensing fees are responsible for approximately 30% of Cohen’s income. His latest development is the documentary, which has been funded with 866 backers, totaling $55,000. His mission to spread the popularity of ‘advanced fashion’ has been an absolute success. Cohen is a smart marketer and businessman. He has changed the way fashion bloggers, advertisers and marketers do their job. At a time when the majority of the population wants to look younger, the Baby Boomers are proud of their old age. They view this as an opportunity to stand out with color, pattern, beads, hats, ties, suits and more! I like that Cohen has built relationships with these people to present their point of view. I believe Advanced Style can make a widespread change in the way older men and women are marketed. Instead of making commercials for the elderly depressing and boring, they can have a modern message while maintaining an aesthetic that they have known and love. The culture of the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s focused on sophistication, professionalism and confidence. Men and women in their 60s, 70s and 80s want and need these qualities targeted towards them. Thanks to Cohen, we have become familiarized with this generation and realize that 60 can really be the new 20!

r u o F y r Ent

4/26/14

Private Label Partnerships The Business of Fashion’s article “Private Label Partnerships, the Deals that Keep Fashion Ticking” presents advantages and disadvantages of private label brands. This concept is growing in the fashion industry as it gains more positive feedback. The article that Lauren Sherman writes gives insight, perspective and possibilities for the private label partnership. Private label brands have become a trend in the fashion industry because consumers love companies with brand presence. Retailers like Urban Outfitters and Bloomingdale’s sell private label items under a certain message, image, aesthetic and style. Urban Outfitters, a specialty retailer, sells private label to offer more merchandise at a fastpaced rate. Department stores like Bloomingdale’s produces private label merchandise mainly for profit. Sherman points out that department stores do not sell national brands as much as their private label brand. I think it is interesting to discover different sides of private label partnerships. General Assembly is a menswear label that creates original designs for the Urban Outfitters private label. It is easy for General Assembly to produce CAD templates quickly and it is more profitable for Urban to work with this type of label as opposed to larger named brands. Owners of General Assembly found more demand for the manufacturing of private label, which is why they have grown to becme The Supply System.Tom Ford’s private label partnership with Zegna is also successful because of the collaborative work between textile, merchandising, distribution, wholesale and sales departments. It is clear that private label brands bring companies and designers more opportunity for growth. Sherman suggests that inexpensive retailers, like H&M will have decreasing interest for their private label brands. However, The Supply System is a great example how pursuing private label has significant business advantages. This company was smart to get their feet wet in both wholesale and private label divisions. Creating relationships with suppliers and retailers is an important quality to have in the fashion industry today. Building strong relationships and a positive reputation shows exposure to the private label business as well as the private label customer.

e v i F y r t n E

5/2/14

Activewear in the Spotlight Activewear is finally breaking through the fashion industry at all levels. Established athletic brands are flourishing, fashion runway collections are sportier than ever and department stores are dedicating more floor space to this area. As an athlete, I have been waiting for sports and athletes to gain recognition in the fashion industry. This trend has exploded as a result of street style and consumer demand. A WWD article titled “Game On: Activewear Heats Up” is written by Karyn Monget who states, “Activewear is getting its moment in the spotlight.” This business is expected to grow enough to outrun the expansion of the overall apparel market in the U.S. this year. Long established brand and market leader, Nike Inc. has accumulated $26.29 billion in sales. Adidas AG, Reebok International Inc. subsidiary, Puma, Under Armour Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc., Athleta at Gap Inc. and Champion follow in sales, but also stand as activewear market frontrunners. These brands target consumers who are involved in sports, exercise and athletic lifestyles. They have set the tone for other consumers as well as other brands to get involved in this market. From Alexander Wang to Belk, activewear is reaching all ages, personalities and lifestyles. In 2013, women’s activewear increased 10% in U.S. retail sales while men and children’s segments increased 9%. Global sales in the activewear market have reached $250 billion, which is why designers and retailers are investing so much in this trend. Marshal Cohen is the chief industry analyst at The NPD Group Inc. and he believes “that the activewear business is outpacing sales of jeans.” Runways are showing drawstrings, laced shoes, lighter fabrics, slouchy tops and zip-up jackets because consumers have dictated these trends. Retailers, such as Gap and Belk realize that comfort, style and performance play an important role in their consumers’ lifestyles. Exercise programs, like CrossFit and healthy diets, like juicing are additional trends that have encouraged the popularity of activewear. Retailers benefit from the success of the activewear market because consumers are looking for multiple products to fulfill their lifestyle. Arnold Aronson, managing director of retail strategies at Kurt Salmon Associates, says, “When you think of activewear, you think of lifestyle – not necessarily about being an athlete, but about getting out and being active. There’s an aspirational level for both men and women, and its universal.” This is how Gap selects designs for their activewear division and how Belk secures athletic brands within their stores. Performance brands, like Nike and Under Armour market their product using celebrity athletes. This type of promotion gives consumers a genuine vision of the person’s lifestyle and how the product makes them better. These strategies have given activewear a positive image and stimulated powerful growth. Activewear is about making consumers feel confident and successful. Going forward, more designers and brands will catch on to the trend. I believe the fashion industry could introduce athletic runway collections for performance brands including Nike, Adidas, Lululemon and Under Armour. The quick and significant impact that the activewear trend has had on the fashion industry proves its ability to accomplish more.

x i S y r t n E

5/10/14

“More Fashion Mileage Per Dress” Harper’s Bazaar, 1956

5/10/14

Need for Sustainability Livia Firth contributes to The Business of Fashion, painting a picture of the zeitgeist in today’s fashion industry. As more brands and retailers emerge, the world of outsourcing expands. Consumers may know this trend, but do not give it much thought. There is less focus on the people that produce these garments and more attention on the labels that hang on the clothes. Consumer purchases have become extremely brand conscious, which is why they are not concerned with the details of the creation processes. Firth suggests that businesses can “achieve growth by adding value through sustainability.” The more consumers become socially aware, the more impact the global supply-chain holds. Her idea is essentially promoting social sustainability where brands sell product, but also tell the stories of the people who make them. H&M has built a model off of this mission. One of their goals is to strengthen communities from their stores and all throughout their value chain. They work toward projects that will leave positive effects for their business, children’s education, cotton farmers and poor women. They also plan to provide for developing communities with safer water and emergency relief. These aspects of sustainability are what Firth means when referring to “More Fashion Mileage Per Dress.” I believe Firth is right in saying consumers are completely wasteful. Instead of buying for longevity, consumers fall for micro-trends and purchase a bulk of items for the cheap prices. In order to gain “more fashion mileage,” consumers need to change the way they shop and brands should reposition their goals. Putting more value in items made by people domestic or worldwide will influence sustainable lifestyles. Consumers should buy clothes with more of an emotional attachment and commitment. If brands start this discussion like H&M, the fashion industry would be revolutionized as well as the entire global supply-chain.

n e v e S y r Ent

5/16/14

Emerging Me-Tailers Retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch and Aeropostale are having difficulty attracting Generation Z into their stores. The way that this particular cohort has grown up and evolved is unlike any other generation. They are highly resourceful and extremely tech-savvy when making purchases. This mixture of characteristics makes a perfect consumer for online retailers. David Yi writes an article for WWD and discusses Generation Z’s entrepreneurial spirit in their world revolved around social media. Entrepreneurs, budding at ages 13-17 are taking advantage of the opportunities they have online to create their own small businesses. The Creative Artists Agency’s division called The Intelligence Group names this “me-tailers.” It is the concept of people, particularly teens, “becoming their own merchants via social media platforms and phone applications.” This trend has influenced the shift in consumer spending. Although Gen-Zers do not have significant spending power, they count for approximately $600 million in annual consumer spending. This generation of 40-46 million people in the US has given online retailers openings for growth. Online retailers have adjusted their way of marketing and selling product because of the trend Gen Z encourages. A study shows that 81% of 12-17-year-olds use social media websites, which is a tool used for researching and shopping. Gen-Zers post pictures on Instagram to sell items with the hashtag #forsale. This ‘me-tailing’ becomes popular so fast because of the high influence Gen-Zers have on each other. Asos.com allows users to list and sell items in the ‘Marketplace’, a division of the site that attracts young fashion entrepreneurs. Taking advantage of the me-tailing development, Asos reaches out to their loyal consumers and gives designers and consignors the opportunity to sell independently. More online and brick and mortar stores should follow what Asos has done. Meeting the needs of Gen-Zers is important because their innovative ideas and plans start at a young age.

t h g i E y r Ent

5/22/14

Louis Vuitton Ready-to-Wear Resort and Cruise collections of Chanel, Dior and Oscar de la Renta are making a statement with intricate designs being held at elaborate venues in luxurious countries. Louis Vuitton’s Cruise collection, however, has a made major impact, proving their place in ready-to-wear. Louis Vuitton’s chief executive Michael Burke and artistic director Nicolas Ghesquiere discuss the philosophy behind the label and its future plans with The Business of Fashions’s Imram Amed. The show Vuitton presented took place in The Palais Princier in Monaco, a royal setting for a prestigious brand. Amed points out that Vuitton is “a house where leather goods and accessories reportedly make up around 80% of turnover,” so why is there a need to focus on ready-to-wear? Burke believes the work Marc Jacobs has done for the brand has made their clothing more popular and recognizable than most people realize. His take on the readyto-wear is more about communication and less about a spectacle that Jacobs displayed. Burke says, “It’s about talking to women and making them desire to look good and look to Louis Vuitton to do that.” He continues in discussing a need to diversify his merchandise toward men’s and women’s, but it will need a balance. This is something I believe Burke can accomplish at Vuitton. His collection shown in Monaco showcased clothing that can have duality between summer and winter seasons. Designers are doing more of this for their collections. It gives viewers the freedom they want with clothing, but also benefits the label to become versatile and modern. Vuitton’s Cruise 2015 collection showed elements of fall layers as well as summer sheers. 1970s silhouettes and patterns were emphasized with decorated embroidery, lace overlays and circle cutouts. Burke states, “showing a cruise collection is also clearly a message of saying ready-towear is important, and it has to be at Vuitton.” His passion for the brand and this product category is evident. Future ready-to-wear collections for Vuitton are confirmed to be promising for their contemporary, elite clients.

Shaina Levin FASH 503 Professor Green