Shelley Russell September 7, 2009
Book Synthesis: Past & Future — An Interactive Media Chronology Interactive media today has become the focus of Web design, online business ventures and futurists looking to predict its evolution years from now. But what is now thought of as a highly technological and advanced phenomenon once began as a simple act of communication between two or more human beings. Telephone conversations, story circles and newspaper or magazine articles in which readers were encouraged to respond to the reporter with comments or questions are among the earliest forms of interactive media. The rapid development of interactive media as a professional field is largely due to the emergence of digital computers and the development of the Internet and the World Wide Web (p.2). The first computer, ENIAC, was developed in the 1940s. The machine was used to calculate and was thought of as an advancement to the previous non‐electric abaci and abacuses. Many scientists and mathematicians contributed to the development of the modern‐day computer, among which are key players Charles Babbage, Vannevar Bush, Alan Turing, and Thomas Watson. Babbage had the idea for an “analytical engine” in 1833, which resembled the modern‐day computer. Bush invented the differential analyzer in 1925, allowing for more advanced electrical computation. While Babbage and Bush were focused on computers as tools for quick numerical computations, Turing was the first to create the design of a “general‐purpose computer” (p.3). Watson led IBM engineers in building the first computer able to operate on software in 1947. While general‐purpose computers were quickly developing, the creation of the Internet was not far behind. President Dwight D. Eisenhower created the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) in 1957 to aid in the “scientific improvement” of U.S. defense and intelligence (p.4). In the early 60’s J.C.R. Licklider, who was on the management team at ARPA, began trading information through their computers in order to facilitate a more efficient work environment. Paul Baran and Donald Davies took Licklider’s original idea of trading information and expanded it to include the idea of sending data in “packets” through a “digital network” (p.4). Baran’s initial sketches of centralized, decentralized and distributed networks quickly evolved into what is known today as the Internet. Although Licklider and his team are credited with spawning the creation of the Internet, the sending of data electronically dates back to the 1830s when Samuel Morse sent the first telegraph, “What hath God wrought?” Following the telegraph, radio grew in popularity after Guglielmo Marconi’s creation in the 1890s. The 1930s were considered the “Golden Age of Radio.” Telephones were being placed in homes throughout the country in the early 1900s, although privacy was a major concern due to wiretapping. In the 1950s, television replaced radio as the dominant form of broadcast. RCA president David Sarnoff and Philo Taylor Farnsworth are credited with creating the
earliest forms of television. The rise of the Internet occurred between the 1960s and 1990s. ARPA first went online in 1969, connecting four major universities. Soon, more machines were connected and successfully operating. In order for scientists and Internet developers to make changes and create technical standards, Steve Crocker created Request for Comments, or RFCs. Perhaps one of the most well‐remembered RFCs is RFC 354, which was the posting for file‐transfer protocol (FTP) in 1972. While the development of the Internet was moving ahead at a rapid pace, 75 percent of Internet traffic was email. It wasn’t until 1990 that Tim Berners‐Lee expanded the Internet to include the use of the World Wide Web by writing the first HTML code. Berners‐Lee first introduced the Web at a conference in 1990, and from there Internet Service Providers (ISPs) became more and more popular as people sought out businesses allowing them to get access to the Internet via “dial up” connection. In order to further enhance ease of use on the Web, Mark Andreessen developed Mosaic, a browser that later became known as Netscape. Web users found it easy to navigate various pages through use of the browser, which directed them to various documents online. Since Andreessen’s creation of Mosaic, numerous browsers have been created and the Web continues to develop and grow as more users gain access. The popularity and immense success of the Internet is most easily understood through a comparison of other popular mediums in history. The radio took 38 years to gain a minimum of 50 million users and television had 50 million users in 13 years. However it took just four years for the Internet to have 50 million users. Several years later, one billion users were estimated to be using the Internet (p.9). Many people often mistake the Internet for the World Wide Web, and vice versa — interchanging the two terms as though they are one in the same. In reality, the World Wide Web is merely one use of the Internet. The Web includes a system of hyperlinks to pages and documents that are accessible online, whereas the Internet is the network of computers under constant development that ultimately allows the Web to exist. But the Internet is not the only thing that is continuing to grow and develop. The Web began as what is known as “Web 1.0,” but it has grown into the new and more interactive “Web 2.0.” When the Web first began, scientists were happy that sharing data electronically had become a success, and Web users found it convenient to be able to simply view documents online. Web 1.0 has been described by CNET as the “era of Web prior to the bursting of the dotcom bubble” (p.17). Web sites consisted of mainly static pages in which content was merely being presented on the Internet as another form of sending data. With Web 2.0, the idea is that content is being created exclusively for Web, in terms of writing or design. JavaScript, Wikipedia and digg are credited by CNET as some of the top contributors to Web 2.0. With the new Web 2.0, users are given more freedom on the Web to discover their own paths of information and contribute to online content. It is predicted that Web 3.0 will become even more integrated into the lives of Internet users—functioning more as a human being, or a “Semantic Web” (p.49, p.58). Columnist Mike Elgan predicts that Web 3.0 will be able to give users the sensation that they are interacting with another human being instead of a computer. Currently, users
can search for various items in Web browsers and results will appear. With Web 3.0, the computer will understand your location, the current weather, as well as your previous preferences based off of past searches. Inklings of Web 3.0 can be seen in the Google browser, in which a user can type in terms to the search bar, and Google may come up with other results—asking the user: “Did you mean this instead?” It is almost as though Google knows what the user is looking for—almost. With Web 3.0, Elgan and others predict that knowing the user will be a definite feature. Still, some futurists are already discussing Web 4.0, which will manifest itself in an “augmented world where the virtual and real blur” (p.58). Nils Muller, CEO of TrendOne declared that Web 4.0 would essentially be an “always‐on” world, or a world of hyperconnectivity. Philip Tetlow, author of “The Web’s Awake: An Introduction to the Field of Web Science and the Concept of Web Life,” argues that the Web is already becoming an independent entity—self‐controlled and separated from the lives of humans. Tetlow argues that the Web is already moving towards complete independence: “The Web should be considered a living organism – a new post‐human species consisting of a single member” (p.48). Predictions about the previously discussed mediums have ranged from skeptical to supportive, but the Internet instilled perhaps the greatest initial fear in society. People were concerned that the Internet would mean the end of the human race, and the start of a machine/robot‐controlled world. For instance, Mondo 2000 editor Ken Goffman said in 1992: “Who’s going to control all this technology? The corporations, of course. And will that mean your brain implant is going to come complete with a corporate logo, and 20 percent of the time you’re going to be hearing commercials?” (p.41). Futurist Jim Dator predicted in 1993: “As the electronic revolution merges with the biological evolution, we will have – if we don’t have it already – artificial intelligence, and artificial life, and will be struggling even more than now with issues such as the legal rights of robots…” (p.42). Google’s official blog presented views compiled from 10 experts about the future of the Internet in 2008. Predictions from the blog revealed that experts believe 70 percent of the human population will have fixed or mobile access to the Internet in the next decade. Video was predicted to become a more interactive medium in which users could choose content and control advertisements (Official Google Blog). But with the Internet deemed a worldwide success, attention now lies in its implications for the future. The Internet and the World Wide Web are quickly becoming more and more integrated in the lives of humans—somewhat subconsciously. Each time an email alert pops up on one’s iPhone, or a Twitter update pops up on a computer screen, it becomes second nature to respond to the alerts and check them on a regular basis. This is just the very surface of the newly‐emerging professional field of interactivity that is emerging as a means for humans to communicate, browse and manipulate data freely on the Web. Mitch Kapor has spoken out about the importance of interactive design that is firm, suitable and easy to use (p.50). Interactive design must evoke: “strategy (connecting the product with goals), experience (related interaction and activities in context), interaction (the interface in use over time by different people),
interface (the presentation of information and controls) and functionality and information (the categories, types, attributes and relationships of users)” (p.50). One of the must clear manifestations of modern interactivity can be seen through augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) worlds. In “The Future of the Internet III,” by Janna Anderson, Anderson focuses on breakthroughs and VR and AR, and uses of social networking across various fields including government and commercial sectors. Online gaming, such as EverQuest and World of Warcraft has been proven to engage users in “the practice of useful pursuits, including rapid response…and leadership through collaboration” (p.52‐53). These VR worlds could potentially lead to a future in leadership for some dedicated users, according to a 2008 study in Harvard Business Review. While online gaming is a valuable tool in terms of software, change and development in these programs is motivated largely by humans’ use of the various VR worlds (p.53). Although Second Life (a social VR world), and other synthetic gaming worlds have millions of registered users, Facebook and MySpace remain the most popular group‐centered networks online. David P. Reed presented the idea that the Internet is designed to be a “collaborative,” “group‐forming” process, in which users work together to communicate and generate materials online (p.53). Reed’s Law states that: “The utility of large networks can scale exponentially with the size of the network” (p.53). Facebook is a perfect example of Reed’s analysis of the Internet as a “group‐forming” medium. Studies show that regular online networkers continue to use these communities to allow them to reach a point of self‐actualization. Businesses have also taken great advantage of social networks and synthetic VR worlds to market new strategies and products to consumers, and train employees. Blogs and online writing via social networking allows for “collective intelligence” (p.74), or the ability of individuals to network their knowledge and collaborate with other users to create valuable projects and databases full of information. More free wireless broadband access, as well as more advanced Internet phones will further integrate VR and AR worlds into the everyday lives of users. While AR and VR have been used for personal gain and business ventures, these Web tools can also make a difference globally. One example of this is the MDGMONITOR, which is a poverty tracking Web site. Poorer areas are tracked and publically displayed. This tracker has raised awareness and consequently money for poorer areas around the globe. While VR and AR worlds are largely confined to computers and the Web, wearable computing is not far from becoming a reality. Soon, clothes will be able to track emotions of people and change room lighting accordingly. They will also be able to monitor one’s posture. Although there are many positive implications to VR and AR worlds, these alternative Web communities do come with some safety risks—such as a loss of security, overuse of the Internet, which has been proven to lead to increased obesity, as well as more suicide cases from harmful social networking practices (p.58). Whereas currently humans are actively seeking out computers to search the Web, look up addresses on Google Earth or phone a friend using a free service such as Skype, futurists predict that human=computer interfaces will not remain so separate for long. Presently, when one uses the Internet or types a Word document, an observer
notices a person, and a computer; two separate entities. However the “Internet of Things” will soon grow to include devices that will be mixed in with the human world, but barely visible to the naked eye. The “Internet of Things” can be defined as any object in the world tagged with an IP address (a small device that identifies the object). The integration of intelligent devices into the “Internet of Things” will mark a change in human organization. This phenomenon has also been referred to as “pervasive” or “ubiquitous computing,” as well as “ambient intelligence.” William Gibson, known by many as the “Father of Cyberspace,” says that soon society will not be able to distinguish between cyberspace and “that which isn’t cyberspace” (p.60). Society is quickly moving toward an unavoidable transparency with the “Internet of Things” and VR/AR worlds. Bill Gates discussed the new goal of making “computing as pervasive as electricity” (p.61). It is somewhat jarring to think that soon nearly every medium—a table, shower curtain, wall…etc., will become a means of acquiring information. It is already somewhat difficult to get away from advertisements, the Internet and cell phones. But years from now it will be incredibly difficult to escape the world of cyberspace and before long even a camping trip in the wilderness will likely be interrupted by various mediums receiving and sending information in the “Internet of Things.” The human‐computer interface is quickly evolving from the traditional WIMP (windows, icons, menus and pointing) display. Two important trends that are driving the emergence of new possibilities in this interface are: 1) The move towards the Mobile Internet, and 2) Embedded networked computing devices that are providing more ways for human‐computer interactions to occur (p.60). Already, many news stations are implementing touch‐screens to better display information to viewers, and many computers are in developmental stages to include “gesture‐control and multi‐touch features” (p.61). While display screens are becoming more intuitive, Wii controllers can detect body movements and projection breakthroughs will soon allow data on cell phone screens to be significantly enlarged, developers cannot deny that efficiency does not always lie in the development of a new product. The most‐efficient human‐computer input method remains the spoken word, and the most efficient computer‐human output method is text. Speech recognition is improving but still has many errors due to voice inflections and inconsistency of background noise. Technology is also developing to include easy‐to‐use handwriting recognition from a stylus, and pen‐based computing, which allows users to transfer notes to a personal computer. Beyond the basic human‐ computer interface development, brain‐computer interfaces are a popular prediction from technology experts. Essentially, these interfaces will provide a direct connection between human brains and computers. Another term for these pervasive computing devices is Adam Greenfield’s “everyware,” which rests on the idea that “nothing exists in isolation from other things” (p.75). According to Greenfield, “everyware” are devices that can be networked to send and receive data constantly. Military and global corporations are driving ubiquitous computing research. Two key principles of “everyware” are: “1) Build it as safely as possible and build into it all the safeguards to personal values, and 2) Tell the world at
large that you are doing something dangerous” (p.79). “Everyware” creates an immortality of information, because every place is an opportunity for information output. With a more highly‐integrated human‐computer interface comes the idea of seamless design (p.67), which will eventually lead to a world of hyperconnectivity, or the idea that humans will always be online. According to a 2008 study conducted by the Interactive Data Corporation (IDC), many people are already classified as being “hyperconnected” users. These users are willing to email, text and communicate using other methods while in any location—not differentiating between their work and personal lives. Blackberry users have been known to be over‐addicted to the devices—with some checking them more than 85 times a day (p.69). Recent issues have been raised with businesses paying employees overtime for work done on Blackberries, and many offices have an understanding with employees that they can conduct some personal correspondence on their Blackberries during work hours. But being hyperconnected has been shown to decrease the quality and efficiency of work. When one is constantly interrupted by a phone call or text message, it decreases their concentration and it takes time for one’s mind to re‐focus on the task at hand (p.70). Many young children are becoming hyperconnected too. In a 2007 report, Pew Internet indicated that 93 percent of U.S. teens use the Internet. Many users, children included, have to adopt multi‐tasking in order to monitor multiple goals at once. Linda Stone coined the term “continuous partial attention,” to describe hyperconnected individuals who must focus attention on one task while thinking about several background tasks at the same time. While multitasking can be beneficial, it also is negative in the sense that it can lead to information overload, which Basex research firm chose as their “problem of the year” for 2008 (p.72). Many blogs and Web sites have been started that focus on this overload of data and suggest that technology complicates our lives rather than simplifies it. Gina Trapani’s LifeHacker site gives users tips to help them cut through massive amounts of information. Looking ahead 150 years, more and more information will become available to users on a daily basis. Internet pioneer David D. Clark has predicted that there will be a “need to accommodate a trillion connected devices online in the next 13 to 18 years” (p.68). With a rapid increase in users and information available, the timeline for the future suggests that computers and technology will become even more integrated into our lives. By 2011, it is predicted that super computers will be on the market – operating close to the speed of the human brain. Intelligent fabrics will be present in 2012 and human cloning and teleportation development is estimated to take place in 2015. By 2020, ubiquitous robots will be present on earth and acquire their own rights and jobs. “The Singularity,” or “a time at which the simultaneous acceleration of nanotechnology, robotics and genetics change our environment beyond the ability of humans to comprehend or predict,” is set to occur at 2045 or later (p.92). Many of the predictions for the years to come may seem far‐fetched, but in order to be a true futurist, one must create his or her own image of where he or she wants to be in so many years (p.98). Futuring involves developing goals and answering key questions, as well as understanding stakeholders and their roles. Organizations are
coping with: 1) Intelligent horizon scanning, 2) Continuous strategic thinking, 3) Dynamic action planning, and 4) Engaging in collaborative foresight in order to embrace the future and all that it has to offer (p. 100‐101). Foresight thinking involves both strategic and tactical tools. Strategic tools will reveal a vision of a plausible future world and challenge one to think about the world’s meaning and the future, whereas tactical tools involve creating short‐term strategies, testing, risk assessment and problem solving (p.103). Mastery of the following cognitive skills is essential in becoming a true futurist: 1) Trend assessment, 2) Pattern recognition, 3) Systems perspective, 4) Anticipation, 5) Analysis and logic (p.114). Understanding trends, bigger pictures as well as short/long‐ term consequences will allow one to determine the best form of response in the future. Trend scanning, networking, action planning and horizontal scanning are several methods one can take to understand the pace of change, research current trends and take appropriate action. Trend scanning involves looking at identified trends and analyzing their impact over time. Networking allows companies and individuals to communicate any outcomes of research through publications, events, case studies or final reports. Following research is action planning, in which an organizational strategy is defined and decisions are made to pursue the strategy defined in research. Horizontal Scanning is a way to explore “external environmental factors in order to understand the pace of change, and identify opportunities, challenges and future developments” (p.149). Trends are much easier to identify than developing issues because trends are already labeled, whereas new issues occur because of a value shift or a change in the view of society. A key principle to horizon scanning is that “more is less” (p.157). According to the Law of Requisite Variety (Ashby 1956), “A system with the requisite control variety can deal with the complexity and challenges of its environment. A system that tries to insulate itself from environmental variety will become highly unstable” (p.157). Shielding oneself from cyberspace and the vast amounts of information available will only be harmful long‐term. Preparing for the future involves embracing the unknown and delving into research and readings on current trends as well as emerging issues.