Systems maps LAND USE FUTURES PROJECT
Land Use Futures: Making the most of land In the 21st century
Systems maps
This report is intended for:
This report should be cited as:
Policy makers and a wide range of professionals and researchers whose interests relate to all aspects of land use. The report focuses on the UK, but will also be relevant to the interests of many other countries.
Foresight Land Use Futures (2010). Systems maps. The Government Office for Science, London.
.
The Government Office for Science would like to thank the firm ShiftN which led the systems work within the Foresight Project on Land Use Futures, and also the many experts and stakeholders from the UK who contributed to this work.
The Foresight Programme in the UK Government Office for Science is under the direction of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government. Foresight strengthens strategic policy-making in Government by embedding a futures approach.
Systems maps
Contents 1. Introduction
2
2. Catalogue of diagrams
2
3. Systems maps
3
1
Systems maps
1 Introduction This catalogue provides the systems diagrams produced within the Foresight Project on Land Use Futures. The aim of this Project has been to use the best available scientific and other evidence to take a broad look at: ●●
●●
The most important challenges and opportunities for land use in the UK over the next 50 years – particularly those that merit decisive action. What can be done to use and manage land more sustainably and to unlock greater value for people and the economy – now and in the future.
The catalogue is not intended as a stand alone document, but rather should be used in conjunction with the Project Report, as a tool to aid interpretation of the report’s key themes and messages. For greater detail on these diagrams, and the background behind them, a report has been produced by the firm ShiftN, who undertook the systems work for the Project. The contractual report expands on the systemic perspective taken in formulating these maps and provides detail behind several of the maps. ShiftN’s report can be ordered from the Foresight website: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
2 Catalogue of diagrams
The following table lists the systems diagrams that are reproduced here, together with a brief description. Page 3
Land systems framework – component parts of the current UK land system A broad overview of the key elements of, and forces acting on, the land use system, incorporating a diverse range of drivers; from the economic to the environmental.
4
Valuation framework – overview This outlines the market forces, governance mechanisms and market failures that may influence land use allocation.
5
Valuation framework – key drivers Shows the particular impact of market dynamics on the land system and governance decisions.
6
Governance framework – overview This demonstrates the interaction between some of the governance influences particularly on developed land use in England.
7
Governance framework – key drivers Shows the specific influences on the planning system and governance of developed land in the UK.
8
Wellbeing framework – overview This helps to visualise the relationship between land use and citizens’ personal health and wellbeing.
9
Land system – influence diagram Provides a broad overview of the key elements of, and forces acting on, the land use system.
10
Land system – clustered influence diagram Demonstrates the broad areas of government responsibility for some of the key factors influencing UK land use.
11
Land system – clustered influence diagram by Government department Shows the range of English Government departments responsible for factors influencing land use.
12
Land system – influence and sustainability diagram Matches influences on UK land use with performance of DEFRA’s Sustainable Development Indicators in Your Pocket (2009).
Production of the systems maps The production of these maps involved consultation with a range of leading experts involved with the Project. They are intended as visual representations of complex systemic interactions. They are not comprehensive in their coverage, and are subject to caveats in their design. Therefore, in the detail of the maps there is likely to be disagreement amongst some readers. However, these maps are not intended as definitive truths, but rather as valuable tools for understanding the complexities of aspects of the land system. Use of the diagrams within the project The systems diagrams deal with a range of issues affecting land use. Some have specific reference within the report, but it is hoped that all of the maps will help offer a clearer understanding of interactions of various components which influence land use in the UK. Specifically, it is hoped that these diagrams will add value through: ●●
Showing the ‘bigger picture’.
●●
Integrating specialist knowledge.
●●
Communicating complex information.
●●
Stimulating stakeholder engagement.
Systems map
2
Systems maps
Land system framework – componenet parts of the current UK land system
Foresight Land Use Futures
A Land System Framework
Governance
- the component parts of the current UK land system
Global Politics
National Self-sufficiency Civil Resilience Food Resistance to shocks Water Energy Economic Science &
Sciences Research & Education
Crossdisciplinary Research Knowledge gaps Understanding drivers of LU change Typologies/Categories Ability to define and represent land uses Measurement – data gaps
Climate
Society Technology Economy Environment Political
technology funding
Ability to get a clear picture of land use
Science & technology regulation
Climate Change Regulation
Covers Ecosystems Uses
Demographics
Sustainability
Case Law
Education & Advocacy
Finance & budget allocation
Legislators Elected Officials
Available budget Funding
Judicial
Courts
Environmental Regulation
M e a s u re m e nt
Government
Policy Drivers
Security
Financial regulation
Trade Policy
Civil Servants
Monetary policy
Planning System Climate Change
Regulation Mitigation Adaptation Sequestration
Land-based goods & services
Average temperature Rainfall patterns Frequency/magnitude of extreme weather events Sea level rise
Local Planning Authority ed alu oods tv rke ble) g a n-m da No exclu no (n d ue ods val et e) go k r l Ma dab clu (ex
Domestic Supply
Economic Value
Foreign Supply
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear
Land Cover & Characteristics
Geology Topography Altitude Soil Climate Hydrology Biodiversity
Unused Land
Regulating Air quality regulation Climate regulation Water regulation Erosion regulation Water purification and waste treatment Disease regulation Pest regulation Pollination Natural hazard regulation
Supporting Soil formation Photosynthesis Primary production Nutrient cycling Water cycling
Scale
Wildlife Boundaries & Physical Geography
Defence
Space
Renewables: Biofuel crops Wind Solar Hydro - Dams Wave/Tide Geothermal
Provisioning
Industry and Business
Food Fibre Fuel Raw materials Genetic resources Biochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticals Ornamental resources Fresh water Other Provisioning
Retail
L and Use Change
Demand Engagement & Participation
M arket Forces
Decisions
Available options Cost/Benefit Risk assessment Sustainability
Owners / Developers Investors
Community Services
Marketing Advertising Media
Buying Behaviours
Utilities and Infrastructure
Working Patterns
Commercial Users
Recreation and Leisure Minerals Forestry Agriculture and Fisheries Policy & Functional Classifications
L and Use Change
Major Land Uses
Decisions
Labour Markets
Economy
Irreversibility
Population Size
Society & Culture
UK Natural & Man-Made Environment Increase demand through new use
Population Migration Distribution Age Household size
Decrease demand through virutualization
Science & Technology, Knowledge, Methods, Processes S
U
P
P
L Y
Livable environment Material wealth Employment Housing Education Social relations/cohesion Mental & physical health Security Freedom of choice & action Equality
Demand
Trade-offs
Increase efficiency of use Increase supply
Citizen Users Consumers
Available options Cost/Benefit Risk assessment Sustainability
Land Managers
(NLUD Classifications) Multifunctionality
Income
Employment
Wellbeing Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences
Commercial Businesses
Economic Growth
Transport
Recreation and ecotourism Social relations Sense of place Landscape Aesthetic Inspiration Cultural heritage Cultural diversity Spiritual and religious Education
Political Behaviours
Public perception
Consumption
Residential
Cultural
Nongovernmental & Voluntary Organisations
Professional & Trade Organisations Housing Markets
Previously Developed
Land for ______
Location Time
Prices
Market
Energy
Broad-leaved mixed and yew woodland Coniferous woodland Boundaries & linear features Arable and horticulture Improved grassland Neutral grassland Calcareous grassland Acid grassland Bracken Dwarf shrub heath Fen, marsh and swamp Bog Standing open water & canals Rivers and streams Montane habitats Inland rock Built-up areas and gardens Supra-littoral rock Supra-littoral sediment Littoral rock Littoral sediment Inshore sublittoral sediment
Price controls
Environmental Value
Supply
Ecosystem Services
Regulation
Social Value
Basic Land Resource Stock Quality Spatial Distribution
Subsidies
Valuation
Global Ocean, Atmosphere & Climate System Global Trade
Taxes & Fees
Criminalization
Demographics D
E
M
A
N
D
3
Systems maps
Valuation Framework – overview Foresight Land Use Futures
Government
Valuation Framework
Magnitude Irreversibility Risk
Environmental • Sustainability
Future value Intrinsic value Equity
Political viability Organisational feasibility Technical feasibility Financial feasibility Conflicts & trade-offs
Social • Public desires
Production & Use Externalities and other Market Failures
Economic • Business desires
Rent Seeking
Environment
Unintended Consequences
Planning System
Ecosystem Services
Regulating
Supporting
Air quality regulation Soil & Soil formation Climate regulation Photosynthesis Water regulation Primary production Erosion regulation Nutrient cycling Flood regulation Water cycling Water purification Hydrology Waste treatment Air quality and climate Natural hazard regulation Climate regulation Disease regulation Non-Excludable Pest regulation Goods Pollination
Compulsory purchase
Regional Plans
Easements & Rights of way
Local Development Plan
Local Planning Authority
Section 106 Agreements
Planning Application
Mortgage interest taxes
Land use change
Capital gain taxes
General Permitted Development Order
Inclusion
Partial
Non-Excludable
Financial regulation
Government initiatives
Monetary policy
Insurance legislation
Base rate
Defence
Land for ______
Utilities and infrastructure
Provisioning
Retail
Fisheries
Pressure to change land use Energy production & generation
Supply
Forestry
Land Market Land Price Land Rents
Inclusion
Non-Excludable
Wellbeing
Major Land Uses
Rents Land quality / capability Location:
proximity & access to amenities
Spiritual and religious Tranquillity Inspirational Therapeutic Tourism and ecotourism Recreation Sport
Corporation tax
Regulation
Subsidies
Environmental Regulation
Price controls
Non-Excludable Goods
Principal-agent problems
Civil Servants
Information
Regulation
Subsidies
Education & Training
Use
Benefit
Market
Supply
Decisions
Market Price
Seller Drive demand
Information Asymmetries
Demand
Decisions
Payment
Disposable income
Transaction Costs
Ability & willingness to pay
Information Cognitive Biases
Cost
Inequalities
Short time horizon
Buyer
Irrational wants Status Quo Bias Satisficing Overconfidence Illusion of control Loss Aversion Anchoring Availability Representativeness etc.
Business & Consumers
Marketing • Advertising • Media
Adjust supply
Market Information
Economy Externalities
Business Involvement Negative Cost
Education & Advocacy
Taxes & Fees
Goods
Information Asymmetries
Cost/Benefit Future discounting Available options Risk assessment Social norms, tradition Ethics Demand estimation
VAT taxes
Domestic supply
Market Power & Monopolies
Human & Social Capital
Funding
Public Goods Social Goods Merit Goods
Fo re i gn supply
Natural Capital
Criminalization
Cap and trade
Government Provision
Technology
Production
Infrastructure charges
Influence or control production, use, or prices
Fo re i gn capital
Positive Benefit Social cohesion Cultural diversity Vibrant communities Local employment and economy Traditional industry Sense of place Rural character Cultural heritage Historic Archaeological Educational/Learning
Trade Policy
Systemic Risks
Social & Cultural Aesthetic value Landscape Cultural and built heritage
Copyrights & Patents
Buy or rent land or land-based goods/services
Water catchment and storage
Conservation
Funding
Manufactured Capital
Land-based goods & services Residential
Agriculture
Criminalization
Financial Capital
Climate change adapt./mit.
Excludable
Inflation
Transport
Recreation and leisure
Employment taxes
Interest rates
Infrastructure
Community services
Property Rights
Standards
Financial Markets
Planning permission
Available budget
Free Goods
Social discount rate
Industry and business
Food Fibre Fuel Raw materials Genetic resources Biochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticals Ornamental resources Fresh water Other Provisioning
Science & technology funding
Tax exemptions
Minerals
Space
Partial
Private Goods Club Goods
Public Goods
Education and other public services
D e m a nd
Common -pool Resources
Rival
Legislators
Previously developed
Waste
Non-Rival
Finance & budget allocation
Environmental Regulation
Community Infrastructure Levy
Habitats of plants and animals Biodiversity - Genetic resources Ecologies Accessibility - permeability of urban areas Animal health and welfare Biosecurity
Information
Designations
Property taxes
Measurement of Market Failures
Government Failure
Titlements & Property Rights
National Policy
Provisioning
Excludable
Policy decisions
Demerit Goods Positive Benefit
Externalities
Negative Cost
Measurement of Externalities
Free-riding
Environmental
Social
Economic
Income
Employment Working patterns Citizen Involvement
Political Behaviours
Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences
Consumer Pressure
Legend Key Drivers
Buying Behaviours Consumer values
Social, Environmental & Political values
Social & Cultural
Consumption
Citizen Users / Consumers
Elements of Market Failure Money Information Political/Legal Influence
Wellbeing
4 copyright® 2008 shiftn cvba
Systems maps
Valuation Framework – key drivers Foresight Land Use Futures
Government
Valuation Framework
Magnitude Irreversibility Risk
Environmental Environmental • Sustainability
Future value Intrinsic value Equity
Political viability Organisational feasibility Technical feasibility Financial feasibility Conflicts & trade-offs
Social • Public desires
Production & Use Externalities and other Market Failures
Economic • Business desires
Social
Rent Seeking
Environment Regulating
Supporting
Air quality regulation Soil & Soil formation Climate regulation Photosynthesis Water regulation Primary production Erosion regulation Nutrient cycling Flood regulation Water cycling Water purification Hydrology Waste treatment Air quality and climate Natural hazard regulation Climate regulation Disease regulation Non-Excludable Pest regulation Goods Pollination
Compulsory purchase
Regional Plans
Easements & Rights of way
Section 106 Agreements
Provisioning
Community Infrastructure Levy
Planning Application
General Permitted Development Order
Inclusion
Financial regulation
Government initiatives
Monetary policy
Insurance legislation
Base rate
Defence
A
Minerals
Land for ______
Utilities and infrastructure
Forestry Fisheries
Pressure to change land use Energy production & generation
Supply
Land-based goods & services Residential
Agriculture
Inclusion
B
Wellbeing
Major Land Uses
Social & Cultural Non-Excludable Services
Land Price Land Rents
Spiritual and religious Tranquillity Inspirational Therapeutic Tourism and ecotourism Recreation Sport
Social cohesion Cultural diversity Vibrant communities Local employment and economy Traditional industry Sense of place Rural character Cultural heritage Historic Archaeological Educational/Learning
Non-Excludable Goods
Corporation tax
Regulation
Subsidies
Environmental Regulation
Price controls
Standards
Rents Land quality / capability Location:
proximity & access to amenities
Business Involvement
Available budget
Trade Policy
Funding
Infrastructure charges
Criminalization
Funding
VAT taxes
Regulation
Subsidies
Influence or control production, use, or prices
Civil Servants
Education & Advocacy
Taxes & Fees
Cap and trade
Market Dynamics Government Provision
Technology
Production
D omestic supply
Information
Environmental Externalities
Market Price
Seller Drive demand
Demand
Decisions
Payment
Disposable income
Transaction Costs
Ability & willingness to pay
C
Information Cognitive Biases
Cost
Inequalities
Short time horizon
Buyer
Irrational wants Status Quo Bias Satisficing Overconfidence Illusion of control Loss Aversion Anchoring Availability Representativeness etc.
Business & Consumers
Economic Externalities Economy Market Information
Systemic Risks
Externalities
Negative Cost
Demerit Goods Positive Benefit
Externalities
Negative Cost
Measurement of Externalities
Free-riding
Social
Economic
Income
Employment
Social & Cultural Externalities
Information Asymmetries
Marketing • Advertising • Media
Adjust supply
Positive Benefit
Benefit
Market
Supply
Decisions
Information Asymmetries
Cost/Benefit Future discounting Available options Risk assessment Social norms, tradition Ethics Demand estimation
Use
Goods
Market Power & Monopolies
Human & Social Capital
Education & Training
Public Goods Social Goods Merit Goods
Foreign supply
Environmental
Citizen Involvement
Measuring Market Ineffciencies
Principal-agent problems
Foreign capital
Buy or rent land or land-based goods/services
Social & Cultural Aesthetic value Landscape Cultural and built heritage
Copyrights
Natural Capital
Land Market
Water catchment and storage
Conservation
Criminalization
Manufactured Capital
Retail
Recreation and leisure
Employment taxes
Financial Capital
Climate change adapt./mit.
Excludable
Inflation
Infrastructure
Community services
Property Rights
Interest rates
Transport
Food Fibre Fuel Raw materials Genetic resources Biochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticals Ornamental resources Fresh water Other Provisioning
Free Goods
Social discount rate
Industry and business
Provisioning
Government Interventions
& Patents Special Interests vs. Public Interests
Financial Markets
Planning permission
Waste
Science & technology funding
Tax exemptions
Previously developed
Space
Partial
Private Goods Club Goods
Rival Non-Rival
The Planning System
Capital gain taxes
Education and other public services
Dem and
Common -pool Resources
Public Goods
Ecosystem Services
Partial
Non-Excludable Excludable
Mortgage interest taxes
Land use change
Legislators
Environmental Regulation
Property taxes
Local Planning Authority
Finance & budget allocation
Designations
Measurement of Market Failures
Government Failure
Information
Titlements & Property Rights
National Policy
Local Development Plan
Habitats of plants and animals Biodiversity - Genetic resources Ecologies Accessibility - permeability of urban areas Animal health and welfare Biosecurity
Unintended Consequences
Economic
Planning System
Ecosystem Services
Policy decisions
Working patterns
Political Behaviours
Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences
Consumer Pressure
Legend Key Drivers
Buying Behaviours Consumer values
Social, Environmental & Political values
Social & Cultural
Consumption
Citizen Users / Consumers
Elements of Market Failure Money Information Political/Legal Influence
Wellbeing copyright® 2008 shiftn cvba
5
Systems maps
Governance framework – overview Foresight Land Use Futures
Governance Framework Policy Drivers
Legend Key Drivers
Environmental Legislation
Regulation Mitigation Adaptation Sequestration
Heritage Amenity/public access Fertilisers and pesticides Handling and recycling of wastes Landscapes Biodiversity Water Soils
Global Europe
Global Climate Change Agreement United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
European Landscape Convention
Nitrates Directive
Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive
Strategic Environmental Assessment
Habitats Directive
Water Framework Directive
Environmental Impact Assessment
Birds Directive
Renewables: Biofuel crops Wind Solar Hydro - Dams Wave/Tide/Current Geothermal
Security
Food, health & bio-security policy Oil Gas Coal Nuclear
Structural Funds
Soils Directive
European Regional Dev. & Cohesion Policy
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
European Union
GHG Directive
Organisations
National Self-sufficiency Resilience Civil Resistance to shocks Food Water Energy Economic
EU Agriculture and Rural Development Policy Environment Food & Energy market management Rural Development
EU Emission Trading Scheme
Global Politics
Formal planning documents Money Political/Legal Influence
Decisions
Landfill Directive
European Convention on Human Rights
Elected Officials
Natura 2000 Network
UK National
Environmental
Climate adaptation & mitigation strategy
UK Sustainable Development Strategy
UK Climate Change Programme
HM Treasury
nt me ern nt Gov estme Inv
The Planning System defra
Natural England
Forestry Commission
Department for Transport
dcms
Homes and Communities Agency
Designations
Yorkshire and the Humber North East North West East Midlands West Midlands East Greater London South East England South West England
Government Investment
National Policy Statements
Planning Acts
Good Practice Guides
Planning Policy Guidance Notes (PPG)
Circulars
Parliamentary Answers and Statements
Building Regulations
Minerals Policy Statements
White Papers
English Regions Network
Delivery Agencies
Leaders Forum
Development Initiative Agencies
Regional Development Agencies
Local Strategic Partnership Multi-Area Agreements
Su
Integrated Strategies
ai na lit
bi
Planning Advisory Service
Professional Planners
Civil Servants
Departure Applications
Call-ins
Waste
Sustainable Community Strategy
Compulsory purchase order
Minerals
Local supplemental planning documents
Utilities and infrastructure
Local Development Framework Local Development Plan
Material Considerations
Retail
Statements of Community Involvement
Recreation and leisure
Health Services Community Organisations
Appeal
Missing information Neighbour objections NIMBY’ism
Fisheries
‘Permissioned’ Land Use Change
Energy production & generation
Direct spending
Design Statement
Percentages?
Audit Commission
Major Land Uses
Price controls Cap and trade
Section 106 Agreements
Nongovernmental & Voluntary Organisations
Cost & availability of Capital
Inflation Food Prices
Political Involvement
Energy Prices
Public Involvement
Transport Prices
Land Use Change
Decisions
Available options Cost/Benefit Decisions Risk assessment (uncertainty)
See the Valuation Model
for a more complete view of the foreces that influence land use change outside of the planning system
Land Owners & Managers
Market Forces
Commercial Users
Taxes Financing
Population Growth
Demand Decisions
Prices Spending
Secondary Demand
Commercial Businesses
Conservation
General Permitted Development Order
Property Taxes
Relative power of different stakeholders
Climate change adapt./mit.
‘Permissionless’ Land Use Change
Subsidies
Different priorities between stakeholders
Regulations
Owners, Developers and Land Managers
Water catchment and storage
Wellbeing
Infrastructure charges
Land Prices
Planning Application
Approved
Funding
Elected Officials
Denied
Agriculture Forestry
Statutory Undertakers
Parish Councils
Development Control Planning Applications Public Consultation
Denied or delayed change
Taxes & Fees
Decisions
Police
Organisational Effectiveness
Residential Community services
for a more complete view of the foreces that influence land use change outside of the planning system
Monetary policy
Community Infrastructure Levy
Planning Skills
Local Authorities
Industry and business Transport
Local revenue
Local budget
y Local Planning Authority
Previously developed Defence
See the Valuation Model Land Use Science Spatial Planning Architecture Land Management
C ABE
Urban Development Corporations Simplified Planning zones Business Improvement Districts Local Strategic Partnerships Sustainable Communities / Ecotowns
Local Area Agreements
st
421 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) local Borough or District Council or a unitary authority
Government Offices for the English Regions
Elected Officials
Planning Inspectorate
Infrastructure Planning Commission
Regional Flood Risk Appraisal
Strategic Environmental Assessment
Courts
Plan Making
Universities
Regional Waste Strategy
Decisions
ts
Regions
Regional Sustainability Frameworks
Available budget
Parliament
ec
Sub-National
DBIS
Planning Policy Statements (PPS)
Water Framework Directive
National Parks Sites of Special Scientific Interest Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty Green Belt Historic & Archaeological
Communities and Local Government
Pr oj
Devolved Administrations
Environment Agency
Legal
England
Lo c a l
Energy
Climate Change
Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences
Citizen Users Consumers Primary Demand
Professional & Trade Organisations
Economic Growth
Economy
Consumption
Society & Culture copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba
6
Systems maps
Governance framework – key drivers
Foresight Land Use Futures
Governance Framework Policy Drivers
Climate Change Environmental Legislation
Climate Change Regulation Mitigation Adaptation Sequestration
Heritage Amenity/public access Fertilisers and pesticides Handling and recycling of wastes Landscapes Biodiversity Water Soils
7
Nitrates Directive
Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive
Strategic Environmental Assessment
Habitats Directive
Water Framework Directive
Environmental Impact Assessment
Birds Directive
Key Drivers
Energy
Global Climate Change Agreement United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
European Landscape Convention
Legend
Renewables: Biofuel crops Wind Solar Hydro - Dams Wave/Tide/Current Geothermal
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear
Global Politics
Structural Funds
Soils Directive
European Regional Dev. & Cohesion Policy
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
European Union
GHG Directive
Environmental
Climate adaptation & mitigation strategy
UK Sustainable Development Strategy
UK Climate Change Programme
Formal planning documents Money Political/Legal Influence
Decisions
High-Level Strategic Planning
Landfill Directive
European Convention on Human Rights
Elected Officials
HM Treasury
nt me ern nt Gov estme Inv
The Planning System
Regions
Homes and Communities Agency
Water Framework Directive
Designations
1
National Parks Sites of Special Scientific Interest Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty Green Belt Historic & Archaeological
Yorkshire and the Humber North East North West East Midlands West Midlands East Greater London South East England South West England
Planning Acts
Good Practice Guides
Planning Policy Guidance Notes (PPG)
Circulars
Parliamentary Answers and Statements
Building Regulations
Minerals Policy Statements
White Papers
Local Strategic Partnership
English Regions Network
Government Offices for the English Regions
Regional Development Agencies
Leaders Forum
2
Multi-Area Agreements
Su
Integrated Strategies
Planning Policy
ai li bi na
Defence Waste
Sustainable Community Strategy
Compulsory purchase order
Minerals
Local supplemental planning documents
Utilities and infrastructure
Local Development Framework Local Development Plan
Departure Applications
Transport
Material Considerations
Retail
Statements of Community Involvement
4
Recreation and leisure
Delivery Agencies
Health Services Community Organisations
Public Consultation
Denied or delayed change
Fisheries
‘Permissioned’ Land Use Change
Energy production & generation
Appeal
Wellbeing
Major Land Uses
‘Permissionless’ Land Use Change
Businesses & Land Owners/Managers Planning Skills
Local Planning
Funding
Infrastructure charges
Subsidies
Property Taxes
Price controls Cap and trade
Section 106 Agreements Community Infrastructure Levy
Statutory Undertakers
Direct spending
Audit Commission
5
Cost & availability of Capital
Elected Officials
6
Inflation
Different priorities between stakeholders
Regulations
Nongovernmental & Voluntary Organisations
The Public
Decisions
Food Prices
Relative power of different stakeholders
Political Involvement
Energy Prices Transport Prices
Percentages?
Land Use Change
Decisions
Available options Cost/Benefit Decisions Risk assessment (uncertainty)
Owners, Developers and Land Managers
3
General Permitted Development Order
Taxes & Fees
Population Growth
Land Prices
Planning Application
Approved
for a more complete view of the foreces that influence land use change outside of the planning system
Monetary policy
Missing information Neighbour objections NIMBY’ism
Water catchment and storage
Conservation
Local revenue
Local budget
Denied
Design Statement
Climate change adapt./mit.
Civil Servants
Participatory Public Planning Involvement
Agriculture Forestry
Professional Planners
Parish Councils
Development Control Planning Applications
Residential Community services
Planning Advisory Service
Call-ins
Police
Organisational Effectiveness
Industry and business
See the Valuation Model Land Use Science Spatial Planning Architecture Land Management
CABE
Delivery Agencies
ty
Previously developed
Planning Inspectorate
Local Authorities
Local Planning Authority
Elected Officials
Local Strategic Partnerships Sustainable Communities / Ecotowns
Local Area Agreements
st
421 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) local Borough or District Council or a unitary authority
Courts
Infrastructure Planning Commission
Regional Flood Risk Appraisal
Regional Waste Strategy
Decisions
Plan Making
Universities
Strategic Environmental Assessment
Lo c a l
Planning Policy Statements (PPS)
Parliament National Policy Statements
Environmental Regulation Regional Sustainability Frameworks
DBIS
Available budget
Government Investment
ts
Sub-National
dcms
Natural England
Communities and Local Government
ec
Levels of Governance
Department for Transport
Pr oj
8
defra
Forestry Commission
Legal
Devolved Administrations
Environment Agency
Organisations
National Self-sufficiency Resilience Civil Resistance to shocks Food Water Energy Economic
EU Agriculture and Rural Development Policy Environment Food & Energy market management Rural Development
EU Emission Trading Scheme
Natura 2000 Network
UK National
Security
Food, health & bio-security policy
Commercial Users
for a more complete view of the foreces that influence land use change outside of the planning system
Land Owners & Managers
Taxes Financing
Demand Decisions
Prices Spending
Secondary Demand
Commercial Businesses See the Valuation Model
Market Forces
Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences
Citizen Users Consumers Primary Demand
Professional & Trade Organisations
Economic Growth
Economy
Consumption
Society & Culture copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba
7
Systems maps
Wellbeing framework – overview Foresight project on Land Use Futures
Wellbeing Framework
Government Policy
Input to Policy Formation
Finance & budget allocation
Available budget
Better Metrics of Wellbeing
Funding Legislators Elected Officials
Civil Servants
Trade Policy
Education & Advocacy
Financial regulation Monetary policy
Taxes & Fees
Criminalization
Subsidies
Regulation
Price controls
Local Planning Authority
Land Use Contributions
Planning System
Policy Levers
Ecosystem Services
Quality of Life (Wellbeing)
Su b j e c t i ve
O b j e c t i ve
Sciences of Wellbeing
Aesthetic Spiritual Educational
Human Needs
Information Media & Advertising Education
Non-materialism Personal Values Philosophy of Life Emotional Intelligence Education
Relative Importance
Spirituality
Communication
Understanding
Social Support Community Involvement Friends Family Relationships
Creativity Affection
Positive Social Relationships
Identity
Material wealth
Participation
Subjective Wellbeing
Leisure Equity / Fairness Freedom Security
Individual Group Community
Cultural
Determinants of Wellbeing
Reproduction Individual Differences
Subsistence / Mental & Physical Health
Nation
Meaningful Productive Work Mobility, Access, Transport Work-Life Balance Free time Financial Situation Sense of control over one’s life Freedom of choice & action Emergency services Environmental Sustainability (Early) Childhood Development Maternal health care and support Mental & physical health care Livable environment Decent Housing Healthy Diet Exercise Sufficient Sleep Avoiding Substance Abuse
Global Cultural Differences
Recreational
Major Land Uses
...
Unused Land Defence Previously Developed Industry and Business Retail
Provisioning Food Freshwater Wood and Fibre Fuel ...
Community Services Residential Utilities and Infrastructure Transport Recreation and Leisure Minerals
Regulating Climate regulation Flood regulation Disease regulation Water purification ...
Forestry Agriculture and Fisheries (NLUD Classifications)
Supporting Nutrient cycling Soil formation Primary production ...
Tension between individual and collective good
Changing needs across the life course Differences between groups, communities, locations etc.
Many needs reinforce each other but some are in tension e.g. Freedom and Security
Evolution of social norms
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
8 copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba
Systems maps
Land system – inuence diagram
Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern
Foresight project on Land Use Futures
Land System Influence Diagram
Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern
Resilience of socialecological systems
Agglomeration economies
Localisation economies Urbanisation economies
Birth rate
Strength of local economy
Life expectancy
Capacity to attract key workers
Global mobility of people
Housing supply Extent of mixed-use development
Spatial separation of minorities
Population
Consumption
Number of Households Knowledge intensity of economic activity
Disposable income Consumer durables in household possession
Fluidity of organisational structures
Stability of employment
Employment
Home working Retirement age
Demand for tourism and recreation
Access to services that enhance the quality of life
Demand for commercial space Access to credit Demand for living space
Suburbanisation
Extent of crosscommuting
Demand for housing
Access to public transport
Company car subsidy
Commuting time
Distance between jobs and housing
Commuting distance
Car (& truck) usage
Surface water pollutant concentration
Groundwater pollutant concentration
Flooding
Urban/rural groundwater recharge
Frequency of extreme rainfall events
Growing season GHG removal from atmosphere
Sequestration of organic C
Integrity of peatland Noxious/ GHG Emissions Physical inactivity
Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land
Overland water runoff Sea level rise Precipitation
Demand for bio-energy
Car ownership Demand for renewable energy Fuel costs
Fossil fuel price
Demand for energy
Excise duties
Demand for wind energy
Demand for minerals extraction sites
Demand for coal
Forest surface area
Use of chemical inputs
Intensity of ploughing
Demand for UK agricultural land
UK agricultural intensification
Demand for UK agricultural products
Capital intensity of agribusiness
Economies of scale in agriculture Materials Consumption
Exogenous and historical GHG emissions
GHG GHG emissions emissions from cropland from livestock
Injuries
Demand for freight transport
Coastal erosion
Impact of climate change
Average UK temperature
Rural Land price
Inbound tourism Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains
Extent of motorway network
Household debt Number of dual-earner families
Demand for available land
Urban growth
Congestion
Speed of travel
Locational mobility of workers
Frequency and height of storm surges
Population density Changes in seasonal events
Housing prices
Economic growth-GDP
Soil quality
Soil quantity
Water quality
Spatial separation of functions
Perception of overcrowding
Agricultural water use
Effective density
Amount of land in private trusts
Seasonal water shortages
Social cohesion
Size of dwellings
Property tax
Water availability
Active transport (walking, cycling)
Local government revenue
Effectiveness of wider land management for wildlife
Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks
Air quality
Housing wealth
Size of households
Competitive pressures
Investment in infrastructure
Quality and quantity of biotic stocks
Environmental Equality
Housing quality Investment in housing
Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services
Human health and wellbeing
Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas
Conservation status of wider environmental species
Spread of disease
Globalisation
Effectiveness of species recovery programs
Competitive pressure on UK agriculture
Industrial and household GHG emissions
Stocking density
Speed of rural land use change Viability of farming business
Complexity of landholding arrangements
Effectiveness of land mgt skills
Rural employment
Viability of rural communities
Farmer access to alternative revenues
Agricultural commodity prices Exogenous factors
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Systems maps
Land system – clustered inuence diagram
Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern
Foresight project on Land Use Futures
Land System Influence Diagram
Effectiveness of species recovery programs
(A)Biotic stocks
Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern Conservation status of wider environmental species
Spread of disease Resilience of socialecological systems
Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services
Human health and wellbeing
Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas
Quality and quantity of biotic stocks
Effectiveness of wider land management for wildlife
Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks
Amount of land in private trusts
Wellbeing
Localisation economies
Agglomeration economies
Economic Growth Investment in housing
Birth rate
Strength of local economy
Life expectancy
Capacity to attract key workers
Global mobility of people
Globalisation
Urbanisation economies
Housing supply Extent of mixed-use development
Spatial separation of minorities
Effective density
Population
Consumption
Agricultural water use
Size of households
EmployEmploy ment
Number of Households Knowledge intensity of economic activity
Disposable income
Consumption Consumer durables in household possession
Fluidity of organisational structures
Stability of employment
Home working
Economic Structure
Retirement age
Demand for tourism and recreation
Demand for commercial space
Housing
Suburbanisation
Access to public transport
Company car subsidy
Locational mobility of workers
Commuting time
network
Distance between jobs and housing
Commuting distance
Noxious/ GHG Emissions
Urban/rural groundwater recharge
Demand for bio-energy
Car ownership Demand for renewable energy
Demand for energy Fuel costs
Demand for energy
Excise duties
Frequency of extreme rainfall events
Sequestration of organic C
Demand for wind energy
Demand for coal
Forest surface area
Intensity of ploughing
UK agricultural intensification
Agriculture Demand for UK agricultural products
Capital intensity of agribusiness
Economies of scale in agriculture Materials Consumption
Exogenous and historical GHG emissions
GHG GHG emissions emissions from cropland from livestock
Use of chemical inputs
Demand for UK agricultural land
Demand for minerals extraction sites
Overland water runoff Sea level rise Precipitation
Impact of climate change
Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land
Injuries
Fossil fuel price
Flooding
Coastal erosion
Climate change
Rural Land price
Demand for freight transport
Groundwater pollutant concentration
Integrity of peatland
Physical inactivity
Car (& truck) usage
Inbound tourism Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains
Growing season
Extent of Transport motorway
Speed of travel
Water
Average UK temperature
GHG removal from atmosphere
Congestion
Household debt Number of dual-earner families
Demand for available land
Urban growth
Extent of crosscommuting
Demand for housing
Access to credit Demand for living space
Access to services that enhance the quality of life
Frequency and height of storm surges
Population density Changes in seasonal events
Housing prices
Economic growth-GDP
Surface water pollutant concentration
Spatial separation of functions
Perception of overcrowding
Urban structure Size of dwellings
Soil quality
Soil quantity
Water quality
Seasonal water shortages
Social cohesion
Local government revenue Property tax
Water availability
Active transport (walking, cycling)
Housing quality
Investment in infrastructure
Air quality
Housing wealth
Demographics
Competitive pressures
Environmental Equality
Competitive pressure on UK agriculture
Industrial and household GHG emissions
Stocking density
Speed of rural land use change Viability of farming business
Complexity of landholding arrangements
Effectiveness of land mgt skills
Rural employment
Viability of rural communities
Farmer access to alternative revenues
Agricultural commodity prices Exogenous factors
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Systems maps
Land system – clustered inuence diagram by Government department
Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern
oresight project on Land Use Futures
and System Influence Diagram
Effectiveness of species recovery programs
(A)Biotic stocks
Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern Conservation status of wider environmental species
Spread of disease Resilience of socialecological systems
Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services
Human health and wellbeing
Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas
Quality and quantity of biotic stocks
Effectiveness of wider land management for wildlife
Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks
Amount of land in private trusts
Wellbeing
Localisation economies
Agglomeration economies
Economic Growth Investment in housing
Birth rate
Strength of local economy
Life expectancy
Capacity to attract key workers
Global mobility of people
Globalisation
Urbanisation economies
Housing supply Extent of mixed-use development
Spatial separation of minorities
Effective density
Population
Consumption
Agricultural water use
Size of households
EmployEmploy ment
Number of Households Knowledge intensity of economic activity
Disposable income
Consumption Consumer durables in household possession
Fluidity of organisational structures
Stability of employment
Home working
Economic Structure
Retirement age
Demand for tourism and recreation
Demand for commercial space
Housing
Suburbanisation
Access to public transport
Company car subsidy
Locational mobility of workers
Commuting time
Distance between jobs and housing
Commuting distance
network
Noxious/ GHG Emissions
Urban/rural groundwater recharge
Demand for bio-energy
Car ownership Demand for renewable energy
Demand for energy Fuel costs
Demand for energy
Excise duties
Frequency of extreme rainfall events
Sequestration of organic C
Demand for wind energy
Demand for coal
Forest surface area
Intensity of ploughing
UK agricultural intensification
Agriculture Demand for UK agricultural products
Capital intensity of agribusiness
Economies of scale in agriculture Materials Consumption
Exogenous and historical GHG emissions
GHG GHG emissions emissions from cropland from livestock
Use of chemical inputs
Demand for UK agricultural land
Demand for minerals extraction sites
Overland water runoff Sea level rise Precipitation
Impact of climate change
Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land
Injuries
Fossil fuel price
Flooding
Coastal erosion
Climate change
Rural Land price
Demand for freight transport
Groundwater pollutant concentration
Integrity of peatland
Physical inactivity
Car (& truck) usage
Inbound tourism Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains
Growing season
Extent of Transport motorway
Speed of travel
Water
Average UK temperature
GHG removal from atmosphere
Congestion
Household debt Number of dual-earner families
Demand for available land
Urban growth
Extent of crosscommuting
Demand for housing
Access to credit Demand for living space
Access to services that enhance the quality of life
Frequency and height of storm surges
Population density Changes in seasonal events
Housing prices
Economic growth-GDP
Surface water pollutant concentration
Spatial separation of functions
Perception of overcrowding
Urban structure Size of dwellings
Soil quality
Soil quantity
Water quality
Seasonal water shortages
Social cohesion
Local government revenue Property tax
Water availability
Active transport (walking, cycling)
Housing quality
Investment in infrastructure
Air quality
Housing wealth
Demographics
Competitive pressures
Environmental Equality
Competitive pressure on UK agriculture
Industrial and household GHG emissions
Stocking density
Speed of rural land use change Viability of farming business
Complexity of landholding arrangements
Effectiveness of land mgt skills
Rural employment
Viability of rural communities
Farmer access to alternative revenues
Agricultural commodity prices Exogenous factors
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Systems maps
Land system – influence and sustainability diagram
Land System Influence Diagram
Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern
Spread of disease Resilience of socialecological systems
Human health and wellbeing
50 68
Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services
60 Agglomeration economies
Localisation economies Urbanisation economies
Investment in housing
Birth rate
Strength of local economy
Life expectancy
Capacity to attract key workers
Global mobility of people
35
32
Population
Size of households Number of Households Competitive pressures
36
Knowledge intensity of economic activity
43
Employment Disposable income Consumer durables in household possession
Fluidity of organisational structures
Stability of employment
40 41
Home working Retirement age
Demand for tourism and recreation
Environmental Equality
Total Social
62
Spatial separation of minorities
Farmland
Demand for commercial space
Extent of mixed-use development
Effective density
Access to services that enhance the quality of life
Demand for housing
36
Access to credit Demand for living space
26
Population density
57
Changes in seasonal events
55 Extent of motorway network
Speed of travel
Locational mobility of workers
Commuting time
Distance between jobs and housing
Commuting distance
Car (& truck) usage
8 9 55
Car ownership
Noxious/ GHG Emissions
7 7 1 2 29 29
NOx, PM10 CO2,
Fuel costs
9 Fossil fuel price
Frequency of extreme rainfall events
Sequestration of organic C
Integrity of peatland
5 5 6 14
Demand for wind energy
Demand for minerals extraction sites
Demand for coal
NOx, Electricity Fossil, CO2.
Materials Consumption
13
Forest surface area
Coastal erosion
Urban/rural groundwater recharge
Exogenous and historical GHG emissions
GHG GHG emissions emissions from cropland from livestock
Use of chemical inputs
Intensity of ploughing
Stocking density
CH4
Demand for UK agricultural land
UK agricultural intensification
Demand for UK agricultural products
Capital intensity of agribusiness
Economies of scale in agriculture Competitive pressure on UK agriculture
1
Industrial and household GHG emissions
Fertiliser use, NH3
Injuries Demand for bio-energy
Soil quality
Overland water runoff Sea level rise Precipitation
22 22
Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land
23
Amount of land in private trusts
Impact of climate change
Growing season
PM10,
4
Effectiveness of wider land management for wildlife
Groundwater pollutant concentration
31
Average UK temperature
GHG removal from atmosphere
1 2 2 3 5 6 10
Residential Bus, Transp. Fossil, CO2.
11 12 13
CO2 CO2
CO2, NOx
Speed of rural land use change Viability of farming business
Complexity of landholding arrangements
Effectiveness of land mgt skills
Rural employment
Viability of rural communities
Farmer access to alternative revenues
Agricultural commodity prices
Su s t a i n a b l e D evelopment I ndicators Natural resources Greenhouse gas emission Resource use 20. Bird population 1. Greenhouse gas emissions 13. Resource use 21. Biodiversity conservation 2. Carbon dioxide emissions by end user 14. Energy supply 22. Agriculture sector 3. Aviation and shipping emissions 15. Water resource use 23. Farming and environmental stewardship Electricity generation 16. Domestic water consumption 24. Land use 17. Water stress 4. Renewable energy 25. Land recycling 5. Electricity generation Water 26. Dwelling density Carbon dioxide and other emissions 18. Waste 27. Fish stock 19. Household waste per person 6. Household energy use 28. Ecological impacts or air pollution 7. Road transport use 29. Emissions of air pollutants 8. Private cars 30. River quality 9. Road freight 31. Flooding 10. Manufacturing sector 11. Service sector 12. Public sector Source: Sustainable development indicators in your pocket 2009. Published by DEFRA.
Frequency and height of storm surges
Rural Land price
Demand for energy
Excise duties
Seasonal water shortages
NH3, NOx, SO2
Physical inactivity
Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas
Soil quantity
Water quality
Surface water pollutant concentration
Bus, Transp.
Demand for renewable energy
Demand for freight transport
Demand for available land
Urban growth
Congestion
Inbound tourism Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains
17 Water availability
Agricultural water use
26
24
Household debt
Company car subsidy
28
Spatial separation of functions
Suburbanisation
Effectiveness of species recovery programs
30 30
Flooding
Perception of overcrowding
Extent of crosscommuting Access to public transport
Number of dual-earner families
Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks
Air quality
15 26
Chemical Biological Urban+ roadside PM10 Rural Ozone Urban Ozone
Woodland, Sea, Wintering Wet
37 66
Social cohesion
Housing supply
Size of dwellings
Housing prices
22
Conservation status of wider environmental species
55
Local government revenue Property tax
20 20 21 27
Housing wealth
Economic growth-GDP
Consumption
Investment in infrastructure
34 34
Quality and quantity of biotic stocks
Farmland birds
Active transport (walking, cycling)
Housing quality
Globalisation
21 28 30 30 61 61 61
Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern
Foresight project on Land Use Futures
Contextual indicators 32. Economic growth 33. Productivity 34. Investment 35. Demography 36. Household and dwellings Society 37. Active community participation 38. Crime 39. Fear of crimo
Employment and poverty 40. Employment 41. Workless households 42. Economically inactive 43. Childhood poverty 44. Young adults 45. Pensioner poverty 46. Pension provision Education 47. Education 48. Sustainable development education
Health 49. Health inequality 50. Healthy life expectancy 51. Mortality rates 52. Smoking 53. Childhood obesity 54. Diet Mobility and access 55. Mobility 56. Getting to school 57. Accessibility 58. Road accidents
Social justice/ Environnmental equality Exogenous 59. Social justice factors 60. Environmental equality 61. Air quality and health 62. Housing conditions 63. Households living in fuel poverty 64. Homelessness 65. Local environment quality 66. Satisfaction in local area International 67. UK international assistance Wellbeing 68. Wellbeing
Since 2003 Clear improvement Little or no change Clear deterioration Insufficient data to compare Copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba
12
This report has been produced as part of the UK Government’s Foresight Project, Land Use Futures. The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.
All the reports and papers produced by the Foresight Land Use Futures may be downloaded from the Foresight website (www.foresight.gov.uk). Requests for hard copies may be made through this website.
Printed in the UK on recycled paper with a minimum HMSO score of 75 First published February 2010. The Government Office for Science. Š Crown copyright. URN 10/632.