Foresight UK Land Use Systems Maps

Systems maps LAND USE FUTURES PROJECT

Land Use Futures: Making the most of land In the 21st century

Systems maps

This report is intended for:

This report should be cited as:

Policy makers and a wide range of professionals and researchers whose interests relate to all aspects of land use. The report focuses on the UK, but will also be relevant to the interests of many other countries.

Foresight Land Use Futures (2010).

Systems maps.

The Government Office for Science, London.

.

The Government Office for Science would like to thank the firm ShiftN which led the systems work within the Foresight Project on Land Use Futures, and also the many experts and stakeholders from the UK who contributed to this work.

The Foresight Programme in the UK Government Office for Science is under the direction of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government. Foresight strengthens strategic policy-making in Government by embedding a futures approach.

Systems maps

Contents 1. Introduction

2

2. Catalogue of diagrams

2

3. Systems maps

3

1

Systems maps

1 Introduction This catalogue provides the systems diagrams produced within the Foresight Project on Land Use Futures.

The aim of this Project has been to use the best available scientific and other evidence to take a broad look at: ●●

●●

The most important challenges and opportunities for land use in the UK over the next 50 years – particularly those that merit decisive action.

What can be done to use and manage land more sustainably and to unlock greater value for people and the economy – now and in the future.

The catalogue is not intended as a stand alone document, but rather should be used in conjunction with the Project Report, as a tool to aid interpretation of the report’s key themes and messages.

For greater detail on these diagrams, and the background behind them, a report has been produced by the firm ShiftN, who undertook the systems work for the Project. The contractual report expands on the systemic perspective taken in formulating these maps and provides detail behind several of the maps. ShiftN’s report can be ordered from the Foresight website: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/

2 Catalogue of diagrams

The following table lists the systems diagrams that are reproduced here, together with a brief description.

Page 3

Land systems framework – component parts of the current UK land system A broad overview of the key elements of, and forces acting on, the land use system, incorporating a diverse range of drivers; from the economic to the environmental.

4

Valuation framework – overview This outlines the market forces, governance mechanisms and market failures that may influence land use allocation.

5

Valuation framework – key drivers Shows the particular impact of market dynamics on the land system and governance decisions.

6

Governance framework – overview This demonstrates the interaction between some of the governance influences particularly on developed land use in England.

7

Governance framework – key drivers Shows the specific influences on the planning system and governance of developed land in the UK.

8

Wellbeing framework – overview This helps to visualise the relationship between land use and citizens’ personal health and wellbeing.

9

Land system – influence diagram Provides a broad overview of the key elements of, and forces acting on, the land use system.

10

Land system – clustered influence diagram Demonstrates the broad areas of government responsibility for some of the key factors influencing UK land use.

11

Land system – clustered influence diagram by Government department Shows the range of English Government departments responsible for factors influencing land use.

12

Land system – influence and sustainability diagram Matches influences on UK land use with performance of DEFRA’s Sustainable Development Indicators in Your Pocket (2009).

Production of the systems maps The production of these maps involved consultation with a range of leading experts involved with the Project. They are intended as visual representations of complex systemic interactions.

They are not comprehensive in their coverage, and are subject to caveats in their design.

Therefore, in the detail of the maps there is likely to be disagreement amongst some readers.

However, these maps are not intended as definitive truths, but rather as valuable tools for understanding the complexities of aspects of the land system.

Use of the diagrams within the project The systems diagrams deal with a range of issues affecting land use. Some have specific reference within the report, but it is hoped that all of the maps will help offer a clearer understanding of interactions of various components which influence land use in the UK. Specifically, it is hoped that these diagrams will add value through: ●●

Showing the ‘bigger picture’.

●●

Integrating specialist knowledge.

●●

Communicating complex information.

●●

Stimulating stakeholder engagement.

Systems map

2

Systems maps

Land system framework – componenet parts of the current UK land system

Foresight Land Use Futures

A Land System Framework

Governance

- the component parts of the current UK land system

Global Politics

National Self-sufficiency Civil Resilience Food Resistance to shocks Water Energy Economic Science &

Sciences Research & Education

Crossdisciplinary Research Knowledge gaps Understanding drivers of LU change Typologies/Categories Ability to define and represent land uses Measurement – data gaps

Climate

Society Technology Economy Environment Political

technology funding

Ability to get a clear picture of land use

Science & technology regulation

Climate Change Regulation

Covers Ecosystems Uses

Demographics

Sustainability

Case Law

Education & Advocacy

Finance & budget allocation

Legislators Elected Officials

Available budget Funding

Judicial

Courts

Environmental Regulation

M e a s u re m e nt

Government

Policy Drivers

Security

Financial regulation

Trade Policy

Civil Servants

Monetary policy

Planning System Climate Change

Regulation Mitigation Adaptation Sequestration

Land-based goods & services

Average temperature Rainfall patterns Frequency/magnitude of extreme weather events Sea level rise

Local Planning Authority ed alu oods tv rke ble) g a n-m da No exclu no (n d ue ods val et e) go k r l Ma dab clu (ex

Domestic Supply

Economic Value

Foreign Supply

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear

Land Cover & Characteristics

Geology Topography Altitude Soil Climate Hydrology Biodiversity

Unused Land

Regulating Air quality regulation Climate regulation Water regulation Erosion regulation Water purification and waste treatment Disease regulation Pest regulation Pollination Natural hazard regulation

Supporting Soil formation Photosynthesis Primary production Nutrient cycling Water cycling

Scale

Wildlife Boundaries & Physical Geography

Defence

Space

Renewables: Biofuel crops Wind Solar Hydro - Dams Wave/Tide Geothermal

Provisioning

Industry and Business

Food Fibre Fuel Raw materials Genetic resources Biochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticals Ornamental resources Fresh water Other Provisioning

Retail

L and Use Change

Demand Engagement & Participation

M arket Forces

Decisions

Available options Cost/Benefit Risk assessment Sustainability

Owners / Developers Investors

Community Services

Marketing Advertising Media

Buying Behaviours

Utilities and Infrastructure

Working Patterns

Commercial Users

Recreation and Leisure Minerals Forestry Agriculture and Fisheries Policy & Functional Classifications

L and Use Change

Major Land Uses

Decisions

Labour Markets

Economy

Irreversibility

Population Size

Society & Culture

UK Natural & Man-Made Environment Increase demand through new use

Population Migration Distribution Age Household size

Decrease demand through virutualization

Science & Technology, Knowledge, Methods, Processes S

U

P

P

L Y

Livable environment Material wealth Employment Housing Education Social relations/cohesion Mental & physical health Security Freedom of choice & action Equality

Demand

Trade-offs

Increase efficiency of use Increase supply

Citizen Users Consumers

Available options Cost/Benefit Risk assessment Sustainability

Land Managers

(NLUD Classifications) Multifunctionality

Income

Employment

Wellbeing Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences

Commercial Businesses

Economic Growth

Transport

Recreation and ecotourism Social relations Sense of place Landscape Aesthetic Inspiration Cultural heritage Cultural diversity Spiritual and religious Education

Political Behaviours

Public perception

Consumption

Residential

Cultural

Nongovernmental & Voluntary Organisations

Professional & Trade Organisations Housing Markets

Previously Developed

Land for ______

Location Time

Prices

Market

Energy

Broad-leaved mixed and yew woodland Coniferous woodland Boundaries & linear features Arable and horticulture Improved grassland Neutral grassland Calcareous grassland Acid grassland Bracken Dwarf shrub heath Fen, marsh and swamp Bog Standing open water & canals Rivers and streams Montane habitats Inland rock Built-up areas and gardens Supra-littoral rock Supra-littoral sediment Littoral rock Littoral sediment Inshore sublittoral sediment

Price controls

Environmental Value

Supply

Ecosystem Services

Regulation

Social Value

Basic Land Resource Stock Quality Spatial Distribution

Subsidies

Valuation

Global Ocean, Atmosphere & Climate System Global Trade

Taxes & Fees

Criminalization

Demographics D

E

M

A

N

D

3

Systems maps

Valuation Framework – overview Foresight Land Use Futures

Government

Valuation Framework

Magnitude Irreversibility Risk

Environmental • Sustainability

Future value Intrinsic value Equity

Political viability Organisational feasibility Technical feasibility Financial feasibility Conflicts & trade-offs

Social • Public desires

Production & Use Externalities and other Market Failures

Economic • Business desires

Rent Seeking

Environment

Unintended Consequences

Planning System

Ecosystem Services

Regulating

Supporting

Air quality regulation Soil & Soil formation Climate regulation Photosynthesis Water regulation Primary production Erosion regulation Nutrient cycling Flood regulation Water cycling Water purification Hydrology Waste treatment Air quality and climate Natural hazard regulation Climate regulation Disease regulation Non-Excludable Pest regulation Goods Pollination

Compulsory purchase

Regional Plans

Easements & Rights of way

Local Development Plan

Local Planning Authority

Section 106 Agreements

Planning Application

Mortgage interest taxes

Land use change

Capital gain taxes

General Permitted Development Order

Inclusion

Partial

Non-Excludable

Financial regulation

Government initiatives

Monetary policy

Insurance legislation

Base rate

Defence

Land for ______

Utilities and infrastructure

Provisioning

Retail

Fisheries

Pressure to change land use Energy production & generation

Supply

Forestry

Land Market Land Price Land Rents

Inclusion

Non-Excludable

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses

Rents Land quality / capability Location:

proximity & access to amenities

Spiritual and religious Tranquillity Inspirational Therapeutic Tourism and ecotourism Recreation Sport

Corporation tax

Regulation

Subsidies

Environmental Regulation

Price controls

Non-Excludable Goods

Principal-agent problems

Civil Servants

Information

Regulation

Subsidies

Education & Training

Use

Benefit

Market

Supply

Decisions

Market Price

Seller Drive demand

Information Asymmetries

Demand

Decisions

Payment

Disposable income

Transaction Costs

Ability & willingness to pay

Information Cognitive Biases

Cost

Inequalities

Short time horizon

Buyer

Irrational wants Status Quo Bias Satisficing Overconfidence Illusion of control Loss Aversion Anchoring Availability Representativeness etc.

Business & Consumers

Marketing • Advertising • Media

Adjust supply

Market Information

Economy Externalities

Business Involvement Negative Cost

Education & Advocacy

Taxes & Fees

Goods

Information Asymmetries

Cost/Benefit Future discounting Available options Risk assessment Social norms, tradition Ethics Demand estimation

VAT taxes

Domestic supply

Market Power & Monopolies

Human & Social Capital

Funding

Public Goods Social Goods Merit Goods

Fo re i gn supply

Natural Capital

Criminalization

Cap and trade

Government Provision

Technology

Production

Infrastructure charges

Influence or control production, use, or prices

Fo re i gn capital

Positive Benefit Social cohesion Cultural diversity Vibrant communities Local employment and economy Traditional industry Sense of place Rural character Cultural heritage Historic Archaeological Educational/Learning

Trade Policy

Systemic Risks

Social & Cultural Aesthetic value Landscape Cultural and built heritage

Copyrights & Patents

Buy or rent land or land-based goods/services

Water catchment and storage

Conservation

Funding

Manufactured Capital

Land-based goods & services Residential

Agriculture

Criminalization

Financial Capital

Climate change adapt./mit.

Excludable

Inflation

Transport

Recreation and leisure

Employment taxes

Interest rates

Infrastructure

Community services

Property Rights

Standards

Financial Markets

Planning permission

Available budget

Free Goods

Social discount rate

Industry and business

Food Fibre Fuel Raw materials Genetic resources Biochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticals Ornamental resources Fresh water Other Provisioning

Science & technology funding

Tax exemptions

Minerals

Space

Partial

Private Goods Club Goods

Public Goods

Education and other public services

D e m a nd

Common -pool Resources

Rival

Legislators

Previously developed

Waste

Non-Rival

Finance & budget allocation

Environmental Regulation

Community Infrastructure Levy

Habitats of plants and animals Biodiversity - Genetic resources Ecologies Accessibility - permeability of urban areas Animal health and welfare Biosecurity

Information

Designations

Property taxes

Measurement of Market Failures

Government Failure

Titlements & Property Rights

National Policy

Provisioning

Excludable

Policy decisions

Demerit Goods Positive Benefit

Externalities

Negative Cost

Measurement of Externalities

Free-riding

Environmental

Social

Economic

Income

Employment Working patterns Citizen Involvement

Political Behaviours

Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences

Consumer Pressure

Legend Key Drivers

Buying Behaviours Consumer values

Social, Environmental & Political values

Social & Cultural

Consumption

Citizen Users / Consumers

Elements of Market Failure Money Information Political/Legal Influence

Wellbeing

4 copyright® 2008 shiftn cvba

Systems maps

Valuation Framework – key drivers Foresight Land Use Futures

Government

Valuation Framework

Magnitude Irreversibility Risk

Environmental Environmental • Sustainability

Future value Intrinsic value Equity

Political viability Organisational feasibility Technical feasibility Financial feasibility Conflicts & trade-offs

Social • Public desires

Production & Use Externalities and other Market Failures

Economic • Business desires

Social

Rent Seeking

Environment Regulating

Supporting

Air quality regulation Soil & Soil formation Climate regulation Photosynthesis Water regulation Primary production Erosion regulation Nutrient cycling Flood regulation Water cycling Water purification Hydrology Waste treatment Air quality and climate Natural hazard regulation Climate regulation Disease regulation Non-Excludable Pest regulation Goods Pollination

Compulsory purchase

Regional Plans

Easements & Rights of way

Section 106 Agreements

Provisioning

Community Infrastructure Levy

Planning Application

General Permitted Development Order

Inclusion

Financial regulation

Government initiatives

Monetary policy

Insurance legislation

Base rate

Defence

A

Minerals

Land for ______

Utilities and infrastructure

Forestry Fisheries

Pressure to change land use Energy production & generation

Supply

Land-based goods & services Residential

Agriculture

Inclusion

B

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses

Social & Cultural Non-Excludable Services

Land Price Land Rents

Spiritual and religious Tranquillity Inspirational Therapeutic Tourism and ecotourism Recreation Sport

Social cohesion Cultural diversity Vibrant communities Local employment and economy Traditional industry Sense of place Rural character Cultural heritage Historic Archaeological Educational/Learning

Non-Excludable Goods

Corporation tax

Regulation

Subsidies

Environmental Regulation

Price controls

Standards

Rents Land quality / capability Location:

proximity & access to amenities

Business Involvement

Available budget

Trade Policy

Funding

Infrastructure charges

Criminalization

Funding

VAT taxes

Regulation

Subsidies

Influence or control production, use, or prices

Civil Servants

Education & Advocacy

Taxes & Fees

Cap and trade

Market Dynamics Government Provision

Technology

Production

D omestic supply

Information

Environmental Externalities

Market Price

Seller Drive demand

Demand

Decisions

Payment

Disposable income

Transaction Costs

Ability & willingness to pay

C

Information Cognitive Biases

Cost

Inequalities

Short time horizon

Buyer

Irrational wants Status Quo Bias Satisficing Overconfidence Illusion of control Loss Aversion Anchoring Availability Representativeness etc.

Business & Consumers

Economic Externalities Economy Market Information

Systemic Risks

Externalities

Negative Cost

Demerit Goods Positive Benefit

Externalities

Negative Cost

Measurement of Externalities

Free-riding

Social

Economic

Income

Employment

Social & Cultural Externalities

Information Asymmetries

Marketing • Advertising • Media

Adjust supply

Positive Benefit

Benefit

Market

Supply

Decisions

Information Asymmetries

Cost/Benefit Future discounting Available options Risk assessment Social norms, tradition Ethics Demand estimation

Use

Goods

Market Power & Monopolies

Human & Social Capital

Education & Training

Public Goods Social Goods Merit Goods

Foreign supply

Environmental

Citizen Involvement

Measuring Market Ineffciencies

Principal-agent problems

Foreign capital

Buy or rent land or land-based goods/services

Social & Cultural Aesthetic value Landscape Cultural and built heritage

Copyrights

Natural Capital

Land Market

Water catchment and storage

Conservation

Criminalization

Manufactured Capital

Retail

Recreation and leisure

Employment taxes

Financial Capital

Climate change adapt./mit.

Excludable

Inflation

Infrastructure

Community services

Property Rights

Interest rates

Transport

Food Fibre Fuel Raw materials Genetic resources Biochemicals, natural medicines, and pharmaceuticals Ornamental resources Fresh water Other Provisioning

Free Goods

Social discount rate

Industry and business

Provisioning

Government Interventions

& Patents Special Interests vs. Public Interests

Financial Markets

Planning permission

Waste

Science & technology funding

Tax exemptions

Previously developed

Space

Partial

Private Goods Club Goods

Rival Non-Rival

The Planning System

Capital gain taxes

Education and other public services

Dem and

Common -pool Resources

Public Goods

Ecosystem Services

Partial

Non-Excludable Excludable

Mortgage interest taxes

Land use change

Legislators

Environmental Regulation

Property taxes

Local Planning Authority

Finance & budget allocation

Designations

Measurement of Market Failures

Government Failure

Information

Titlements & Property Rights

National Policy

Local Development Plan

Habitats of plants and animals Biodiversity - Genetic resources Ecologies Accessibility - permeability of urban areas Animal health and welfare Biosecurity

Unintended Consequences

Economic

Planning System

Ecosystem Services

Policy decisions

Working patterns

Political Behaviours

Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences

Consumer Pressure

Legend Key Drivers

Buying Behaviours Consumer values

Social, Environmental & Political values

Social & Cultural

Consumption

Citizen Users / Consumers

Elements of Market Failure Money Information Political/Legal Influence

Wellbeing copyright® 2008 shiftn cvba

5

Systems maps

Governance framework – overview Foresight Land Use Futures

Governance Framework Policy Drivers

Legend Key Drivers

Environmental Legislation

Regulation Mitigation Adaptation Sequestration

Heritage Amenity/public access Fertilisers and pesticides Handling and recycling of wastes Landscapes Biodiversity Water Soils

Global Europe

Global Climate Change Agreement United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

European Landscape Convention

Nitrates Directive

Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive

Strategic Environmental Assessment

Habitats Directive

Water Framework Directive

Environmental Impact Assessment

Birds Directive

Renewables: Biofuel crops Wind Solar Hydro - Dams Wave/Tide/Current Geothermal

Security

Food, health & bio-security policy Oil Gas Coal Nuclear

Structural Funds

Soils Directive

European Regional Dev. & Cohesion Policy

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

European Union

GHG Directive

Organisations

National Self-sufficiency Resilience Civil Resistance to shocks Food Water Energy Economic

EU Agriculture and Rural Development Policy Environment Food & Energy market management Rural Development

EU Emission Trading Scheme

Global Politics

Formal planning documents Money Political/Legal Influence

Decisions

Landfill Directive

European Convention on Human Rights

Elected Officials

Natura 2000 Network

UK National

Environmental

Climate adaptation & mitigation strategy

UK Sustainable Development Strategy

UK Climate Change Programme

HM Treasury

nt me ern nt Gov estme Inv

The Planning System defra

Natural England

Forestry Commission

Department for Transport

dcms

Homes and Communities Agency

Designations

Yorkshire and the Humber North East North West East Midlands West Midlands East Greater London South East England South West England

Government Investment

National Policy Statements

Planning Acts

Good Practice Guides

Planning Policy Guidance Notes (PPG)

Circulars

Parliamentary Answers and Statements

Building Regulations

Minerals Policy Statements

White Papers

English Regions Network

Delivery Agencies

Leaders Forum

Development Initiative Agencies

Regional Development Agencies

Local Strategic Partnership Multi-Area Agreements

Su

Integrated Strategies

ai na lit

bi

Planning Advisory Service

Professional Planners

Civil Servants

Departure Applications

Call-ins

Waste

Sustainable Community Strategy

Compulsory purchase order

Minerals

Local supplemental planning documents

Utilities and infrastructure

Local Development Framework Local Development Plan

Material Considerations

Retail

Statements of Community Involvement

Recreation and leisure

Health Services Community Organisations

Appeal

Missing information Neighbour objections NIMBY’ism

Fisheries

‘Permissioned’ Land Use Change

Energy production & generation

Direct spending

Design Statement

Percentages?

Audit Commission

Major Land Uses

Price controls Cap and trade

Section 106 Agreements

Nongovernmental & Voluntary Organisations

Cost & availability of Capital

Inflation Food Prices

Political Involvement

Energy Prices

Public Involvement

Transport Prices

Land Use Change

Decisions

Available options Cost/Benefit Decisions Risk assessment (uncertainty)

See the Valuation Model

for a more complete view of the foreces that influence land use change outside of the planning system

Land Owners & Managers

Market Forces

Commercial Users

Taxes Financing

Population Growth

Demand Decisions

Prices Spending

Secondary Demand

Commercial Businesses

Conservation

General Permitted Development Order

Property Taxes

Relative power of different stakeholders

Climate change adapt./mit.

‘Permissionless’ Land Use Change

Subsidies

Different priorities between stakeholders

Regulations

Owners, Developers and Land Managers

Water catchment and storage

Wellbeing

Infrastructure charges

Land Prices

Planning Application

Approved

Funding

Elected Officials

Denied

Agriculture Forestry

Statutory Undertakers

Parish Councils

Development Control Planning Applications Public Consultation

Denied or delayed change

Taxes & Fees

Decisions

Police

Organisational Effectiveness

Residential Community services

for a more complete view of the foreces that influence land use change outside of the planning system

Monetary policy

Community Infrastructure Levy

Planning Skills

Local Authorities

Industry and business Transport

Local revenue

Local budget

y Local Planning Authority

Previously developed Defence

See the Valuation Model Land Use Science Spatial Planning Architecture Land Management

C ABE

Urban Development Corporations Simplified Planning zones Business Improvement Districts Local Strategic Partnerships Sustainable Communities / Ecotowns

Local Area Agreements

st

421 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) local Borough or District Council or a unitary authority

Government Offices for the English Regions

Elected Officials

Planning Inspectorate

Infrastructure Planning Commission

Regional Flood Risk Appraisal

Strategic Environmental Assessment

Courts

Plan Making

Universities

Regional Waste Strategy

Decisions

ts

Regions

Regional Sustainability Frameworks

Available budget

Parliament

ec

Sub-National

DBIS

Planning Policy Statements (PPS)

Water Framework Directive

National Parks Sites of Special Scientific Interest Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty Green Belt Historic & Archaeological

Communities and Local Government

Pr oj

Devolved Administrations

Environment Agency

Legal

England

Lo c a l

Energy

Climate Change

Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences

Citizen Users Consumers Primary Demand

Professional & Trade Organisations

Economic Growth

Economy

Consumption

Society & Culture copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba

6

Systems maps

Governance framework – key drivers

Foresight Land Use Futures

Governance Framework Policy Drivers

Climate Change Environmental Legislation

Climate Change Regulation Mitigation Adaptation Sequestration

Heritage Amenity/public access Fertilisers and pesticides Handling and recycling of wastes Landscapes Biodiversity Water Soils

7

Nitrates Directive

Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive

Strategic Environmental Assessment

Habitats Directive

Water Framework Directive

Environmental Impact Assessment

Birds Directive

Key Drivers

Energy

Global Climate Change Agreement United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

European Landscape Convention

Legend

Renewables: Biofuel crops Wind Solar Hydro - Dams Wave/Tide/Current Geothermal

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear

Global Politics

Structural Funds

Soils Directive

European Regional Dev. & Cohesion Policy

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

European Union

GHG Directive

Environmental

Climate adaptation & mitigation strategy

UK Sustainable Development Strategy

UK Climate Change Programme

Formal planning documents Money Political/Legal Influence

Decisions

High-Level Strategic Planning

Landfill Directive

European Convention on Human Rights

Elected Officials

HM Treasury

nt me ern nt Gov estme Inv

The Planning System

Regions

Homes and Communities Agency

Water Framework Directive

Designations

1

National Parks Sites of Special Scientific Interest Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty Green Belt Historic & Archaeological

Yorkshire and the Humber North East North West East Midlands West Midlands East Greater London South East England South West England

Planning Acts

Good Practice Guides

Planning Policy Guidance Notes (PPG)

Circulars

Parliamentary Answers and Statements

Building Regulations

Minerals Policy Statements

White Papers

Local Strategic Partnership

English Regions Network

Government Offices for the English Regions

Regional Development Agencies

Leaders Forum

2

Multi-Area Agreements

Su

Integrated Strategies

Planning Policy

ai li bi na

Defence Waste

Sustainable Community Strategy

Compulsory purchase order

Minerals

Local supplemental planning documents

Utilities and infrastructure

Local Development Framework Local Development Plan

Departure Applications

Transport

Material Considerations

Retail

Statements of Community Involvement

4

Recreation and leisure

Delivery Agencies

Health Services Community Organisations

Public Consultation

Denied or delayed change

Fisheries

‘Permissioned’ Land Use Change

Energy production & generation

Appeal

Wellbeing

Major Land Uses

‘Permissionless’ Land Use Change

Businesses & Land Owners/Managers Planning Skills

Local Planning

Funding

Infrastructure charges

Subsidies

Property Taxes

Price controls Cap and trade

Section 106 Agreements Community Infrastructure Levy

Statutory Undertakers

Direct spending

Audit Commission

5

Cost & availability of Capital

Elected Officials

6

Inflation

Different priorities between stakeholders

Regulations

Nongovernmental & Voluntary Organisations

The Public

Decisions

Food Prices

Relative power of different stakeholders

Political Involvement

Energy Prices Transport Prices

Percentages?

Land Use Change

Decisions

Available options Cost/Benefit Decisions Risk assessment (uncertainty)

Owners, Developers and Land Managers

3

General Permitted Development Order

Taxes & Fees

Population Growth

Land Prices

Planning Application

Approved

for a more complete view of the foreces that influence land use change outside of the planning system

Monetary policy

Missing information Neighbour objections NIMBY’ism

Water catchment and storage

Conservation

Local revenue

Local budget

Denied

Design Statement

Climate change adapt./mit.

Civil Servants

Participatory Public Planning Involvement

Agriculture Forestry

Professional Planners

Parish Councils

Development Control Planning Applications

Residential Community services

Planning Advisory Service

Call-ins

Police

Organisational Effectiveness

Industry and business

See the Valuation Model Land Use Science Spatial Planning Architecture Land Management

CABE

Delivery Agencies

ty

Previously developed

Planning Inspectorate

Local Authorities

Local Planning Authority

Elected Officials

Local Strategic Partnerships Sustainable Communities / Ecotowns

Local Area Agreements

st

421 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) local Borough or District Council or a unitary authority

Courts

Infrastructure Planning Commission

Regional Flood Risk Appraisal

Regional Waste Strategy

Decisions

Plan Making

Universities

Strategic Environmental Assessment

Lo c a l

Planning Policy Statements (PPS)

Parliament National Policy Statements

Environmental Regulation Regional Sustainability Frameworks

DBIS

Available budget

Government Investment

ts

Sub-National

dcms

Natural England

Communities and Local Government

ec

Levels of Governance

Department for Transport

Pr oj

8

defra

Forestry Commission

Legal

Devolved Administrations

Environment Agency

Organisations

National Self-sufficiency Resilience Civil Resistance to shocks Food Water Energy Economic

EU Agriculture and Rural Development Policy Environment Food & Energy market management Rural Development

EU Emission Trading Scheme

Natura 2000 Network

UK National

Security

Food, health & bio-security policy

Commercial Users

for a more complete view of the foreces that influence land use change outside of the planning system

Land Owners & Managers

Taxes Financing

Demand Decisions

Prices Spending

Secondary Demand

Commercial Businesses See the Valuation Model

Market Forces

Values Beliefs Knowledge Information Preferences

Citizen Users Consumers Primary Demand

Professional & Trade Organisations

Economic Growth

Economy

Consumption

Society & Culture copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba

7

Systems maps

Wellbeing framework – overview Foresight project on Land Use Futures

Wellbeing Framework

Government Policy

Input to Policy Formation

Finance & budget allocation

Available budget

Better Metrics of Wellbeing

Funding Legislators Elected Officials

Civil Servants

Trade Policy

Education & Advocacy

Financial regulation Monetary policy

Taxes & Fees

Criminalization

Subsidies

Regulation

Price controls

Local Planning Authority

Land Use Contributions

Planning System

Policy Levers

Ecosystem Services

Quality of Life (Wellbeing)

Su b j e c t i ve

O b j e c t i ve

Sciences of Wellbeing

Aesthetic Spiritual Educational

Human Needs

Information Media & Advertising Education

Non-materialism Personal Values Philosophy of Life Emotional Intelligence Education

Relative Importance

Spirituality

Communication

Understanding

Social Support Community Involvement Friends Family Relationships

Creativity Affection

Positive Social Relationships

Identity

Material wealth

Participation

Subjective Wellbeing

Leisure Equity / Fairness Freedom Security

Individual Group Community

Cultural

Determinants of Wellbeing

Reproduction Individual Differences

Subsistence / Mental & Physical Health

Nation

Meaningful Productive Work Mobility, Access, Transport Work-Life Balance Free time Financial Situation Sense of control over one’s life Freedom of choice & action Emergency services Environmental Sustainability (Early) Childhood Development Maternal health care and support Mental & physical health care Livable environment Decent Housing Healthy Diet Exercise Sufficient Sleep Avoiding Substance Abuse

Global Cultural Differences

Recreational

Major Land Uses

...

Unused Land Defence Previously Developed Industry and Business Retail

Provisioning Food Freshwater Wood and Fibre Fuel ...

Community Services Residential Utilities and Infrastructure Transport Recreation and Leisure Minerals

Regulating Climate regulation Flood regulation Disease regulation Water purification ...

Forestry Agriculture and Fisheries (NLUD Classifications)

Supporting Nutrient cycling Soil formation Primary production ...

Tension between individual and collective good

Changing needs across the life course Differences between groups, communities, locations etc.

Many needs reinforce each other but some are in tension e.g. Freedom and Security

Evolution of social norms

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

8 copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba

Systems maps

Land system – inuence diagram

Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern

Foresight project on Land Use Futures

Land System Influence Diagram

Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern

Resilience of socialecological systems

Agglomeration economies

Localisation economies Urbanisation economies

Birth rate

Strength of local economy

Life expectancy

Capacity to attract key workers

Global mobility of people

Housing supply Extent of mixed-use development

Spatial separation of minorities

Population

Consumption

Number of Households Knowledge intensity of economic activity

Disposable income Consumer durables in household possession

Fluidity of organisational structures

Stability of employment

Employment

Home working Retirement age

Demand for tourism and recreation

Access to services that enhance the quality of life

Demand for commercial space Access to credit Demand for living space

Suburbanisation

Extent of crosscommuting

Demand for housing

Access to public transport

Company car subsidy

Commuting time

Distance between jobs and housing

Commuting distance

Car (& truck) usage

Surface water pollutant concentration

Groundwater pollutant concentration

Flooding

Urban/rural groundwater recharge

Frequency of extreme rainfall events

Growing season GHG removal from atmosphere

Sequestration of organic C

Integrity of peatland Noxious/ GHG Emissions Physical inactivity

Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land

Overland water runoff Sea level rise Precipitation

Demand for bio-energy

Car ownership Demand for renewable energy Fuel costs

Fossil fuel price

Demand for energy

Excise duties

Demand for wind energy

Demand for minerals extraction sites

Demand for coal

Forest surface area

Use of chemical inputs

Intensity of ploughing

Demand for UK agricultural land

UK agricultural intensification

Demand for UK agricultural products

Capital intensity of agribusiness

Economies of scale in agriculture Materials Consumption

Exogenous and historical GHG emissions

GHG GHG emissions emissions from cropland from livestock

Injuries

Demand for freight transport

Coastal erosion

Impact of climate change

Average UK temperature

Rural Land price

Inbound tourism Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains

Extent of motorway network

Household debt Number of dual-earner families

Demand for available land

Urban growth

Congestion

Speed of travel

Locational mobility of workers

Frequency and height of storm surges

Population density Changes in seasonal events

Housing prices

Economic growth-GDP

Soil quality

Soil quantity

Water quality

Spatial separation of functions

Perception of overcrowding

Agricultural water use

Effective density

Amount of land in private trusts

Seasonal water shortages

Social cohesion

Size of dwellings

Property tax

Water availability

Active transport (walking, cycling)

Local government revenue

Effectiveness of wider land management for wildlife

Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks

Air quality

Housing wealth

Size of households

Competitive pressures

Investment in infrastructure

Quality and quantity of biotic stocks

Environmental Equality

Housing quality Investment in housing

Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services

Human health and wellbeing

Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas

Conservation status of wider environmental species

Spread of disease

Globalisation

Effectiveness of species recovery programs

Competitive pressure on UK agriculture

Industrial and household GHG emissions

Stocking density

Speed of rural land use change Viability of farming business

Complexity of landholding arrangements

Effectiveness of land mgt skills

Rural employment

Viability of rural communities

Farmer access to alternative revenues

Agricultural commodity prices Exogenous factors

9

Systems maps

Land system – clustered inuence diagram

Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern

Foresight project on Land Use Futures

Land System Influence Diagram

Effectiveness of species recovery programs

(A)Biotic stocks

Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern Conservation status of wider environmental species

Spread of disease Resilience of socialecological systems

Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services

Human health and wellbeing

Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas

Quality and quantity of biotic stocks

Effectiveness of wider land management for wildlife

Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks

Amount of land in private trusts

Wellbeing

Localisation economies

Agglomeration economies

Economic Growth Investment in housing

Birth rate

Strength of local economy

Life expectancy

Capacity to attract key workers

Global mobility of people

Globalisation

Urbanisation economies

Housing supply Extent of mixed-use development

Spatial separation of minorities

Effective density

Population

Consumption

Agricultural water use

Size of households

EmployEmploy ment

Number of Households Knowledge intensity of economic activity

Disposable income

Consumption Consumer durables in household possession

Fluidity of organisational structures

Stability of employment

Home working

Economic Structure

Retirement age

Demand for tourism and recreation

Demand for commercial space

Housing

Suburbanisation

Access to public transport

Company car subsidy

Locational mobility of workers

Commuting time

network

Distance between jobs and housing

Commuting distance

Noxious/ GHG Emissions

Urban/rural groundwater recharge

Demand for bio-energy

Car ownership Demand for renewable energy

Demand for energy Fuel costs

Demand for energy

Excise duties

Frequency of extreme rainfall events

Sequestration of organic C

Demand for wind energy

Demand for coal

Forest surface area

Intensity of ploughing

UK agricultural intensification

Agriculture Demand for UK agricultural products

Capital intensity of agribusiness

Economies of scale in agriculture Materials Consumption

Exogenous and historical GHG emissions

GHG GHG emissions emissions from cropland from livestock

Use of chemical inputs

Demand for UK agricultural land

Demand for minerals extraction sites

Overland water runoff Sea level rise Precipitation

Impact of climate change

Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land

Injuries

Fossil fuel price

Flooding

Coastal erosion

Climate change

Rural Land price

Demand for freight transport

Groundwater pollutant concentration

Integrity of peatland

Physical inactivity

Car (& truck) usage

Inbound tourism Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains

Growing season

Extent of Transport motorway

Speed of travel

Water

Average UK temperature

GHG removal from atmosphere

Congestion

Household debt Number of dual-earner families

Demand for available land

Urban growth

Extent of crosscommuting

Demand for housing

Access to credit Demand for living space

Access to services that enhance the quality of life

Frequency and height of storm surges

Population density Changes in seasonal events

Housing prices

Economic growth-GDP

Surface water pollutant concentration

Spatial separation of functions

Perception of overcrowding

Urban structure Size of dwellings

Soil quality

Soil quantity

Water quality

Seasonal water shortages

Social cohesion

Local government revenue Property tax

Water availability

Active transport (walking, cycling)

Housing quality

Investment in infrastructure

Air quality

Housing wealth

Demographics

Competitive pressures

Environmental Equality

Competitive pressure on UK agriculture

Industrial and household GHG emissions

Stocking density

Speed of rural land use change Viability of farming business

Complexity of landholding arrangements

Effectiveness of land mgt skills

Rural employment

Viability of rural communities

Farmer access to alternative revenues

Agricultural commodity prices Exogenous factors

10

Systems maps

Land system – clustered inuence diagram by Government department

Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern

oresight project on Land Use Futures

and System Influence Diagram

Effectiveness of species recovery programs

(A)Biotic stocks

Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern Conservation status of wider environmental species

Spread of disease Resilience of socialecological systems

Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services

Human health and wellbeing

Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas

Quality and quantity of biotic stocks

Effectiveness of wider land management for wildlife

Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks

Amount of land in private trusts

Wellbeing

Localisation economies

Agglomeration economies

Economic Growth Investment in housing

Birth rate

Strength of local economy

Life expectancy

Capacity to attract key workers

Global mobility of people

Globalisation

Urbanisation economies

Housing supply Extent of mixed-use development

Spatial separation of minorities

Effective density

Population

Consumption

Agricultural water use

Size of households

EmployEmploy ment

Number of Households Knowledge intensity of economic activity

Disposable income

Consumption Consumer durables in household possession

Fluidity of organisational structures

Stability of employment

Home working

Economic Structure

Retirement age

Demand for tourism and recreation

Demand for commercial space

Housing

Suburbanisation

Access to public transport

Company car subsidy

Locational mobility of workers

Commuting time

Distance between jobs and housing

Commuting distance

network

Noxious/ GHG Emissions

Urban/rural groundwater recharge

Demand for bio-energy

Car ownership Demand for renewable energy

Demand for energy Fuel costs

Demand for energy

Excise duties

Frequency of extreme rainfall events

Sequestration of organic C

Demand for wind energy

Demand for coal

Forest surface area

Intensity of ploughing

UK agricultural intensification

Agriculture Demand for UK agricultural products

Capital intensity of agribusiness

Economies of scale in agriculture Materials Consumption

Exogenous and historical GHG emissions

GHG GHG emissions emissions from cropland from livestock

Use of chemical inputs

Demand for UK agricultural land

Demand for minerals extraction sites

Overland water runoff Sea level rise Precipitation

Impact of climate change

Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land

Injuries

Fossil fuel price

Flooding

Coastal erosion

Climate change

Rural Land price

Demand for freight transport

Groundwater pollutant concentration

Integrity of peatland

Physical inactivity

Car (& truck) usage

Inbound tourism Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains

Growing season

Extent of Transport motorway

Speed of travel

Water

Average UK temperature

GHG removal from atmosphere

Congestion

Household debt Number of dual-earner families

Demand for available land

Urban growth

Extent of crosscommuting

Demand for housing

Access to credit Demand for living space

Access to services that enhance the quality of life

Frequency and height of storm surges

Population density Changes in seasonal events

Housing prices

Economic growth-GDP

Surface water pollutant concentration

Spatial separation of functions

Perception of overcrowding

Urban structure Size of dwellings

Soil quality

Soil quantity

Water quality

Seasonal water shortages

Social cohesion

Local government revenue Property tax

Water availability

Active transport (walking, cycling)

Housing quality

Investment in infrastructure

Air quality

Housing wealth

Demographics

Competitive pressures

Environmental Equality

Competitive pressure on UK agriculture

Industrial and household GHG emissions

Stocking density

Speed of rural land use change Viability of farming business

Complexity of landholding arrangements

Effectiveness of land mgt skills

Rural employment

Viability of rural communities

Farmer access to alternative revenues

Agricultural commodity prices Exogenous factors

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Systems maps

Land system – influence and sustainability diagram

Land System Influence Diagram

Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern

Spread of disease Resilience of socialecological systems

Human health and wellbeing

50 68

Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services

60 Agglomeration economies

Localisation economies Urbanisation economies

Investment in housing

Birth rate

Strength of local economy

Life expectancy

Capacity to attract key workers

Global mobility of people

35

32

Population

Size of households Number of Households Competitive pressures

36

Knowledge intensity of economic activity

43

Employment Disposable income Consumer durables in household possession

Fluidity of organisational structures

Stability of employment

40 41

Home working Retirement age

Demand for tourism and recreation

Environmental Equality

Total Social

62

Spatial separation of minorities

Farmland

Demand for commercial space

Extent of mixed-use development

Effective density

Access to services that enhance the quality of life

Demand for housing

36

Access to credit Demand for living space

26

Population density

57

Changes in seasonal events

55 Extent of motorway network

Speed of travel

Locational mobility of workers

Commuting time

Distance between jobs and housing

Commuting distance

Car (& truck) usage

8 9 55

Car ownership

Noxious/ GHG Emissions

7 7 1 2 29 29

NOx, PM10 CO2,

Fuel costs

9 Fossil fuel price

Frequency of extreme rainfall events

Sequestration of organic C

Integrity of peatland

5 5 6 14

Demand for wind energy

Demand for minerals extraction sites

Demand for coal

NOx, Electricity Fossil, CO2.

Materials Consumption

13

Forest surface area

Coastal erosion

Urban/rural groundwater recharge

Exogenous and historical GHG emissions

GHG GHG emissions emissions from cropland from livestock

Use of chemical inputs

Intensity of ploughing

Stocking density

CH4

Demand for UK agricultural land

UK agricultural intensification

Demand for UK agricultural products

Capital intensity of agribusiness

Economies of scale in agriculture Competitive pressure on UK agriculture

1

Industrial and household GHG emissions

Fertiliser use, NH3

Injuries Demand for bio-energy

Soil quality

Overland water runoff Sea level rise Precipitation

22 22

Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land

23

Amount of land in private trusts

Impact of climate change

Growing season

PM10,

4

Effectiveness of wider land management for wildlife

Groundwater pollutant concentration

31

Average UK temperature

GHG removal from atmosphere

1 2 2 3 5 6 10

Residential Bus, Transp.

Fossil, CO2.

11 12 13

CO2 CO2

CO2, NOx

Speed of rural land use change Viability of farming business

Complexity of landholding arrangements

Effectiveness of land mgt skills

Rural employment

Viability of rural communities

Farmer access to alternative revenues

Agricultural commodity prices

Su s t a i n a b l e D evelopment I ndicators Natural resources Greenhouse gas emission Resource use 20. Bird population 1. Greenhouse gas emissions 13. Resource use 21. Biodiversity conservation 2. Carbon dioxide emissions by end user 14. Energy supply 22. Agriculture sector 3. Aviation and shipping emissions 15. Water resource use 23. Farming and environmental stewardship Electricity generation 16. Domestic water consumption 24. Land use 17. Water stress 4. Renewable energy 25. Land recycling 5. Electricity generation Water 26. Dwelling density Carbon dioxide and other emissions 18. Waste 27. Fish stock 19. Household waste per person 6. Household energy use 28. Ecological impacts or air pollution 7. Road transport use 29. Emissions of air pollutants 8. Private cars 30. River quality 9. Road freight 31. Flooding 10. Manufacturing sector 11. Service sector 12. Public sector Source: Sustainable development indicators in your pocket 2009. Published by DEFRA.

Frequency and height of storm surges

Rural Land price

Demand for energy

Excise duties

Seasonal water shortages

NH3, NOx, SO2

Physical inactivity

Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas

Soil quantity

Water quality

Surface water pollutant concentration

Bus, Transp.

Demand for renewable energy

Demand for freight transport

Demand for available land

Urban growth

Congestion

Inbound tourism Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains

17 Water availability

Agricultural water use

26

24

Household debt

Company car subsidy

28

Spatial separation of functions

Suburbanisation

Effectiveness of species recovery programs

30 30

Flooding

Perception of overcrowding

Extent of crosscommuting Access to public transport

Number of dual-earner families

Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks

Air quality

15 26

Chemical Biological Urban+ roadside PM10 Rural Ozone Urban Ozone

Woodland, Sea, Wintering Wet

37 66

Social cohesion

Housing supply

Size of dwellings

Housing prices

22

Conservation status of wider environmental species

55

Local government revenue Property tax

20 20 21 27

Housing wealth

Economic growth-GDP

Consumption

Investment in infrastructure

34 34

Quality and quantity of biotic stocks

Farmland birds

Active transport (walking, cycling)

Housing quality

Globalisation

21 28 30 30 61 61 61

Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern

Foresight project on Land Use Futures

Contextual indicators 32. Economic growth 33. Productivity 34. Investment 35. Demography 36. Household and dwellings Society 37. Active community participation 38. Crime 39. Fear of crimo

Employment and poverty 40. Employment 41. Workless households 42. Economically inactive 43. Childhood poverty 44. Young adults 45. Pensioner poverty 46. Pension provision Education 47. Education 48. Sustainable development education

Health 49. Health inequality 50. Healthy life expectancy 51. Mortality rates 52. Smoking 53. Childhood obesity 54. Diet Mobility and access 55. Mobility 56. Getting to school 57. Accessibility 58. Road accidents

Social justice/ Environnmental equality Exogenous 59. Social justice factors 60. Environmental equality 61. Air quality and health 62. Housing conditions 63. Households living in fuel poverty 64. Homelessness 65. Local environment quality 66. Satisfaction in local area International 67. UK international assistance Wellbeing 68. Wellbeing

Since 2003 Clear improvement Little or no change Clear deterioration Insufficient data to compare Copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba

12

This report has been produced as part of the UK Government’s Foresight Project, Land Use Futures.

The views expressed do not represent the policy of any Government or organisation.

All the reports and papers produced by the Foresight Land Use Futures may be downloaded from the Foresight website (www.foresight.gov.uk).

Requests for hard copies may be made through this website.

Printed in the UK on recycled paper with a minimum HMSO score of 75 First published February 2010.

The Government Office for Science. Š Crown copyright. URN 10/632.