FIVE USE CASES

So if eVTOLs won’t be replacing Ubers - at least not initially - what will they be replacing? A more likely use case is for them to do tasks currently done by helicopters, executive jets and cargo drones.

Initially, during the first Urban Mobility decade (2025-2035), we predict five use cases for electric air taxis or eVTOLs, as follows:

1 - Marquee flights at major events

2 - Novelty flights for tourists

3 - First or last mile travel to airports for premium passengers

4 - Transport for the 1%

5 - Cargo and logistics

To take each of these in turn:

1 - Marquee flights at major events eVTOLs are being talked up around global sporting events, such as the 2024 Paris and 2028 LA Olympics, as well as the 2025 World Expo in Osaka.

With the 2024 games only two years away, it seems unlikely that the air taxis being trialled for the games will actually be used for spectators.

Corridors will of course be quite restricted, the numbers of eVTOLs will be limited, and they can each only take four passengers. As a result, expect maybe a number of high profile flights involving top IOC officials or athletes.

2 - Novelty flights for tourists

Given that helicopter tourist flights are available in a lot of major urban centres, we expect some of these to be replaced by eVTOLs.

One example of this is the agreement signed between Embraer’s eVTOL company ‘Eve’, and Falcon Aviation Services in the UAE.

With a letter of intent signed for 35 electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, the aim is that from 2025, the partnership will introduce the first eVTOL touristic flights from the Atlantis, The Palm in Dubai.

Similarly, German company Volocopter is very active in Singapore and sees the first flights taking place around leisure and tourism hotspots Marina Bay and Sentosa Island.

3 - Ferrying premium passengers to airports

Will masses of people use electric air taxis to reach airports?

Given that a Boeing 777-9 has capacity for 426 passengers, and that eVTOLs will initially hold four passengers, that would mean 100+ eVTOLs for one flight.

So that’s unlikely. But what is more likely is that the highest paying passengers on a flight will be given an eVTOL option.

This will be similar to what helicopter service Blade is doing for select JetBlue passengers from JFK and EWR to and from Manhattan.

Blade in fact intends to transition from helicopters to eVTOLs, and is working with Vermont based BETA, which we profile later in this report.

4 - Transportation for the 1%

In July 2022 celebrity Kylie Jenner was branded a “climate criminal” for taking a 17 minute private jet flight (or 12 minutes, depending on what media you read) in the LA area.

15-20 minute eVTOL flights are of course perfectly feasible, and as eVTOLs are electric, they are zero carbon (depending on the energy source for the electricity of course).

You could even foresee eVTOLs being something of a status symbol for major celebrities. As most early models will require a pilot, they are also hugely expensive.

Similarly, premium helicopter charter company Halo Aviation has placed forward orders for 200 EVE eVTOLs from Embraer spin-off Eve Air Mobility. Halo will probably be using these to ferry around celebrities, sports stars and top level CEOs.

Halo says 100 of Eve’s aircraft will be based in the US and 100 in the UK.

5 - Cargo flights

Drones and other autonomous vehicles are already in use for cargo and freight, so it’s actually not much of a stretch to see this as a use case for electric vertical aircraft. In fact, at the end of last year, Forbes ran a piece on eVTOL startup Beta Technologies (BETA) entitled, “Amazon and UPS Are Betting This Electric Aircraft Startup Will Change Shipping.”

This comes as UPS announced that it plans to purchase eVTOL aircraft from BETA, to augment its air service for select small and mid-size markets.

UPS says that aircraft will be able to take off and land at UPS facilities in “a whisperquiet fashion, reducing time-in-transit, vehicle emissions, and operating cost.”

In March 2022, Eve and Kenya Airways’ subsidiary, Fahari Aviation, signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) for up to 40 electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles.

The agreement includes joint studies through a working group to develop and scale the UAM market and a business model for cargo drone operations in Kenya. The project is expected to start deliveries in 2026.

When it comes to logistics, industry publication eVTOL ran a piece looking at how electric air vehicles could deliver life saving equipment.

Finally, a number of defence and military contractors are looking at how eVTOLs can be used to move equipment and supplies.