EIGHT EVTOL COMPANIES TIPPED FOR SUCCESS

We’ve talked about the inevitable period of consolidation, and at SimpliFlying we’ve chosen eight urban mobility companies that we believe will last the course, where their aircraft is likely to see the light of day this decade.

They are:

1 - Archer Aviation

2 - BETA

3 - Eve Air Mobility

4 - Joby Aviation

5 - Supernal

6 - Vertical Aerospace

7 - Volocopter

8 - Wisk

The criteria we used Why have we chosen these eight? We looked at a number of criteria.

First of all funding. Speaking at the 2022 Farnborough Air Show, Wisk CEO Gary Gysin pointed out that developing a new aircraft from start to finish represents a $2 billion cost. Obviously, very few of the 250 urban mobility start-ups will manage that.

Many companies in this sector have also been funded via a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), a shell company listed on a stock exchange, which is used to acquire a private company and speed up the listing process.

SPACs have come under negative scrutiny, and quoted in Business Insider, Brian Foley of Brian Foley Associates, says that companies that went down this road are in a vulnerable cash-flow position.

As a result, as well as money in the bank right now, it’s crucial to look at backers and partners who are committed to seeing each urban mobility project come to fruition, and will put in more money and resources if needed.

We’ve looked at airlines and other commercial organisations who have placed pre-orders with each company, though as discussed most of these don’t yet involve money changing hands.

And finally, there’s the question of how far down the road the different ventures are in carrying out successful tests and flights.

In the next section, we will give a brief overview of each company.

Archer Aviation

Based in - San Jose, California CEO - Adam Goldstein

Website - https://www.archer.com/

Aircraft name - Maker

Notable partner - United Airlines

Archer is building a four seat aircraft, which with a pilot will be aiming for 20-30 minute routes. Archer has an ambitious timeline to gain FAA certification by 2024, and then to build the network after that.

The focus for now is major metropolitan areas in the USA, especially southern California, with an LAX - downtown LA trip taking six minutes. Archer also last year said it would develop an urban mobility network in Miami.

Archer achieved its first hover’ flight with its Maker demonstration aircraft in December, and intends to reach full transition flights (vertical takeoff / horizontal flight) by the end of the year.

Though other companies in this space have reached transition, Archer believes that its progress from first hover flight through full transition will be the fastest pace any eVTOL company has reached this milestone.

Archer has strong support from United Airlines, with United and Archer forming a ‘joint eVTOL advisory committee.’

Former United CEO Oscar Munoz has joined the Archer board, and the airline has placed an order for $1 billion of Archer’s aircraft.

Archer and rival Wisk are currently involved in a dispute involving the alleged theft of intellectual property, with a trial expected next year. Earlier this year the US authorities decided not to prosecute an Archer employee at the centre of the dispute.

BETA Technologies

Based in - Burlington, Vermont

CEO - Kyle Clark

Website - https://www.beta.team/

Aircraft name - ALIA

Notable partners - UPS, Amazon, US Army, Blade

With a billion dollar valuation, BETA is best known for its work in bringing eVTOLs to the cargo space.

Key investors include Fidelity and Amazon. In late June, Amazon made a second investment through its $2 billion climate change fund. This followed a test flight of the company’s ALIA aircraft between two Amazon Air Hubs in the Northern Kentucky and Ohio region, the first-ever test of an electric aircraft at Amazon facilities.

Designed initially for the transportation of medical products and cargo, BETA says that the ALIA-250 will carry 1,400 pounds of payload and requires less than an hour to charge after full missions.

With an order of 150 aircraft from UPS, BETA has additional interest from the US Army, which is assessing Alia for cargo and logistics missions.

BETA also plans a passenger version of ALIA holding five passengers and a pilot and is looking for FAA certification in 2024. Earlier in the report we mentioned helicopter company Blade wanting to transition to eVTOLs, and last year Blade signed a non-binding agreement to become the first passenger customer for ALIA.

According to Forbes, CEO Kyle Clark is gearing up for a second venture, a network of electric aircraft charging stations around the USA, similar to the Tesla charging network. Forbes says most will contain banks of used batteries from ALIA aircraft, where the capacity has declined by around 8%.

Eve Air Mobility

Based in - Ft Lauderdale (Florida), São José dos Campos (Brazil)

CEO - Andre Stein

Website - https://eveairmobility.com/

Aircraft name - EVE

Notable partners - Embraer, Wideroe, BAE Systems, Halo, Kenya Airways, Zanite, Republic, SkyWest

Eve Air Mobility was spun out of Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer, and forms a key part of the company’s sustainability strategy.

Valued at almost $3 billion, Eve is on the road to becoming a market leader in the eVTOL space. By late April Eve had 1825 provisional sales and commitments for its aircraft.

The company is looking to start commercial operations in 2026. Initially the EVE eVTOL will hold four passengers and a pilot, but the idea is to move to autonomous flight in the medium term.

The list of partners working with Eve is significant. This includes Wideroe Zero (a subsidiary of airline Wideroe), with the aim of looking at UAM use in Scandinavia and private urban air mobility company Halo, which wants to buy 200 aircraft for private executive flights, half of which will be based in the UK and half in the USA.

Halo is also the launch customer for Eve’s ‘urban air traffic management solution’, which is described as an “agnostic portfolio of solutions that will enable the integration of all airspace users in the urban environment, which is critical to supporting the safety, efficiency, and improvement of the entire UAM ecosystem.”

Other partners who have placed orders include BAE Systems (for defence-logistics purposes), Kenya Airways, Global Crossing Airlines (for Florida operations), Republic Airways, Falcon Aviation (UAE) and SkyWest

At the 2022 Farnborough Air Show, Eve unveiled the new four passenger cabin for EVE.

Joby Aviation

Based in - Santa Cruz, California CEO - JoeBen Bevirt (Founder)

Website - https://www.jobyaviation.com/

Aircraft name - Joby S4

Notable partners - Uber, Toyota, Intel, JetBlue, ANA, NASA

Joby is another potential giant in the urban mobility space, having received $590 million in funding from Toyota in 2020. In the same year, Joby also incorporated Uber’s former ‘elevate’ business into its operations.

Joby went public in August 2021, with a valuation of $4.5 billion, while the heavyweight board includes figures such as LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman.

Joby claims to have both the speed record (205mph) and distance record (150+ miles) for an eVTOL.

Speaking at the Farnborough Air Show, founder JoeBen Bevirt talked about Joby’s electric vertical aircraft being used in major urban centres in the UK, US, as well as in Japan and South Korea in 2024.

Coinciding with the Farnborough Air Show, Joby also said it had applied for UK aircraft certification from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). In May, the company had already received a Part 135 Air Carrier Certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration, one of the three FAA approvals required for it to begin US air taxi services.

In Japan, Joby is working with Japanese airline ANA and Toyota to develop an aerial ride sharing service in Japan, while a similar partnership was announced with telecoms company SKT to bring air taxis to South Korea.

In a letter to shareholders in May, Joby Aviation said that it had $1.2 billion in cash and short term investments to support operations.

Supernal

Based in - Washington DC CEO - Jaiwon Shin Website - https://supernal.aero/ Aircraft name - S-A1

Notable partners - Hyundai

Supernal started out as the Urban Mobility Division of the Hyundai Motor Group in January 2020, debuting as Supernal in November 2021.

With the aim of launching commercial flights in 2028, Supernal is a relatively late entrant to the market with a later launch date than some of its competitors.

However, parent Hyundai was in 2017 the world’s third largest vehicle manufacturer by production value behind Toyota (which is backing rival Joby Aviation) and Volkswagen, so it has the financial and manufacturing muscle to see the concept through.

Basing the company in Washington DC, not South Korea, Hyundai has also invested heavily in management talent. For example, CTO Ben Diachun was formerly CEO of eVTOL company Opener. Deputy CTO and head of R&D Han Park comes from Samsung and Northrop Grunman, while Global Head of Policy Diana Marina Cooper has years of aviation industry experience.

Supernal’s five seater (four passenger and one pilot) S-A1 was unveiled at CES in 2020, when it was still under the Hyundai brand name.

Supernal is focusing on the urban air mobility infrastructure, as well as on development aircraft. A piece in DesignBoom talks about integrated transport systems where you might take a flight to a vertiport, and then the final trip to your house on an e-scooter.

In April, Supernal debuted what it said was the world’s first functional advanced mobility vertiport with Urban-Air Port in Coventry, UK. Supernal has also become one of a number of urban air mobility companies in signing an MOU with the City of Miami

Vertical Aerospace

Based in - Bristol, UK CEO - Stephen Fizpatrick

Website - https://vertical-aerospace.com/

Aircraft name - VX4

Notable partners - American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, Avolon, Honeywell, Microsoft, Rolls Royce

UK eVTOL company Vertical Aerospace made the news when it announced what is believed to be the first eVTOL / airline deal to involve pre-delivery payments. This came as American reserved delivery slots for 50 VX4 aircraft of its initial conditional pre-order of up to 250 aircraft, with an option for an additional 100, announced in June 2021.

Other airlines that Vertical Aerospace has signed agreements with include Virgin Atlantic, Air Asia, GOL and Japan Airlines (the latter three via aircraft leasing company Avolon). Meanwhile, business jet operator FLYINGGROUP, based in Belgium and operating throughout Europe and the Middle East has ordered 50 aircraft.

As of July, Vertical Aerospace had 1400 pre-orders on its books.

Vertical Aerospace already has a track record of successfully flying its VAX2 aircraft in 2019. The company is now developing the VX4, incorporating Honeywell’s F35 fighter jet technology. The VX4, like most other aircraft in this class, will carry four passengers.

Following a merger with Broadstone Acquisition Group, Vertical Aerospace listed on the NYSE at the end of last year. Public shareholders joined earlier investors American Airlines, Avolon, Honeywell, Microsoft’s M12, Kouros, Rolls-Royce, 40North and Rocket.

In the UK, Vertical Aerospace is part of the UK Government funded Advanced Mobility Ecosystem Consortium to look at Advanced Air Mobility, with other parties including Virgin Atlantic, Cranfield University and air traffic control organisation NATS.

Volocopter

Based in - Bruchsal, Germany

CEO - Florian Reuter (until Sept), then Dirk Hoke Website - https://www.volocopter.com/

Aircraft name - VoloConnect

Notable partners - Japan Airlines Innovation Fund, Geely Technology Group, NEOM

Volocopter’s goal is to fly electric air taxis at the 2024 Paris Olympics and Paralympics. As we say earlier in the report, we imagine this will be more for select officials rather than actual spectators.

However, the most impressive announcements from Volocopter actually involve the work that the company is doing in Asia. At the end of 2020, Volcopter committed to developing an urban air mobility network in Singapore.

Here, Volocopter’s internal studies show that its UAM services can generate an estimated SGD 4.18 billion (US$ 3bn) in cumulative economic benefits and create up to 1,300 local jobs by 2030. Initially there will be tourist flights over Marina Bay and Sentosa, then crossborder flights to Indonesia and Malaysia.

In China, Aerofugia, a subsidiary of Geely Technology Group, has created a JV with Volocopter and pre-ordered 150 aircraft. In Japan, Volocopter has committed to fly during the 2025 World Expo in Osaka. Meanwhile the Japan Airlines Innovation Fund has already invested in Volocopter, and is aiming for commercial launch in Japan.

In Saudi Arabia, Volocopter has signed a JV agreement for air mobility with NEOM, the new development and ‘smart’ city being built in the desert.

With the tests of its four seater ‘VoloConnect’, Volocopter claims to be “the only eVTOL developer in the Western hemisphere to have an entire fleet of distinct aircraft configurations undergoing flight tests.” Volcopter also has the two seater ‘VoloCity’ as well as the ‘VoloDrone’ in testing, with VoloCity being the model most likely to be used in 2024.

Wisk

Based in - Mountain View, California

CEO - Gary Gysin

Website - https://wisk.aero/ Aircraft name - Cora

Notable partners - Boeing, Kitty Hawk Corporation, NASA

Speaking at the Farnborough Air Show, Wisk CEO Gary Gysin talked about Wisk being as affordable as an Uber X (as we’ve said earlier in the report, we think that is initially unlikely) and the decision to move straight to autonomous vehicles - in contrast to other players in this space that will launch with piloted eVTOLs.

Gysin does not see having pilots on board as being economically viable. Instead, human intervention will be possible via ground stations that will resemble ATC Centres.

Wisk was formed in 2019 as a partnership between Boeing and the Kitty Hawk Corporation, an electric aircraft company backed by Google co-founder Larry Page. In January, Boeing announced that it was putting another $450 million into the company, which it says makes it one of the best funded companies in this space worldwide.

Wisk has developed five generations of its aircraft and intends to unveil the sixth in the Autumn, which it will then bring through FAA certification.

Wisk’s plan is to initially be the aircraft operator for partners, including major cities.

At Farnborough, Gysin said that the company is talking to 20 cities worldwide including ones in Australia and New Zealand. Although he was only prepared to name Long Beach, California, it’s a good bet that another one of those cities is Brisbane, thanks to the MOU signed with the Queensland Council of Mayors.

Along with Joby Aviation, Wisk was selected by NASA as a partner in its advanced air mobility project.