Market Round Up Vol 2 Issue 18

SIMSREE Mutual Fund presents

Special Feature

“Market Roundup”

- Market Views

Volume 2 Issue 18 (22/12/13)

- Why Tata Sons do not see sense in opening banks

MARKET NEWS 

German yields rise to 2-month high on back of Fed Tapers



October IIP shrinks first time in 4 months



Kotak Mahindra Bank plans to heighten focus on rural India



Foreign banks seek clarity on local takeovers



India could be under threat of a real-estate bubble burst



Pepsico India to setup new plant in Andhra Pradesh



Infosys sees bigger exits after big Murthy entry



TCS Insurance launches mobile telematics solution app



Sun Pharma receives nod to sell Cymbalta copy



Call quality falls as telcos shut cell sites to cut costs



Carmakers to increase prices in Jan



M&M, Tata Motors & Toyota See Fall in Nov Passenger Vehicle Sales



Power ministry to move cabinet for amending Electricity Act



Cement makers raise prices, but margins may remain tight



Capital goods & infra stocks likely to benefit if Narendra Modi wins

Recommended Reads:   

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/07/07/reliancecommunications-spinoff-idINDEE96604X20130707 http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/07/05/markets-india-forex-close-idINL3N0FB22G20130705 http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/07/05/markets-india-forex-close-idINL3N0FB22G20130705

Global News

Nitin Mali

German Yields rise to 2-month high as Fed slows Bond purchases German Yields rise to 2-month high as Fed slows Bond purchases Germany’s 10-year bond yields climbed to a twomonth high after the Federal Reserve said this week it would reduce the pace of its asset purchases, damping demand for government debt. Europe’s benchmark securities fell after data showed euroarea manufacturing expanded more in December than analysts forecast and consumer confidence in the region’s largest economy rose to the most in six years. Spanish and Italian bonds also declined. U.S. Treasuries dropped for a fifth straight week, the longest losing streak since June, as a report yesterday showed the U.S. economy expanded at a faster rate than previously estimated in the third quarter.

“Tapering is the biggest story,” said Lyn GrahamTaylor, a fixed-income strategist at Rabobank International in London. “It definitely feels like euro-zone yields are also being dragged higher by U.S. data.”

Germany’s 10-year yield rose four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, in the week to 1.87 percent as of 5 p.m. London time yesterday, after climbing to 1.91 percent, the highest since Oct. 17. The 2 percent bund due in August 2023 dropped 0.375, or 3.75 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,368) face amount, to 101.13. The rate on 10-year bunds has surged 48 basis points since May 21, the day before Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank could begin to reduce the monthly pace of bond purchases if it was confident of sustained gains in the economy.

Fed Tapers The Fed said after a two-day policy meeting ended Dec. 18 it would cut its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds to $75 billion from $85 billion starting in January.

Commerce Department figures published yesterday showed U.S. gross domestic product climbed at a 4.1 percent annualized rate, the strongest since 2011 and up from a previous estimate of 3.6 percent.

Italian 10-year yields increased three basis points to 4.12 percent in the week, while similar-maturity Spanish yields rose four basis points to 4.14 percent.

A gauge of factory output in the 17-nation bloc, based on a survey of purchasing managers, rose to 52.7 from 51.6 in November, according to a Dec. 16 report, exceeding the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey for 51.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Separate data yesterday from Nuremberg-based GfK SE showed a gauge of consumer confidence in Germany will climb to 7.6 in January, the highest reading since August 2007, from 7.4 this month.

German bonds lost 1.9 percent this year through Dec. 19, the worst performer of 15 euro-area debt markets tracked by Bloomberg World Bond Indexes. Spain’s returned 11 percent and Italy’s earned 7.7 percent.

France is scheduled to sell as much as 3.5 billion euros of 90- and 139-day debt on Dec. 23, while Italy will auction notes and bills on Dec. 27.

National News

Rohan Muntode

October IIP slumps 1.8%, shrinks for first time in 4 months Industrial production entered the negative territory after three months, contracting by 1.8 per cent in October this year. The 1.8 percent decline in industrial output for October 2013 compares with growth of 2.0 percent in the previous month and 8.4 percent in October 2012.

On a cumulative basis during April October 2013, the IIP reported a flat performance as compared to a modest growth of 1.2 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The manufacturing sector comprises 75 per cent of the total index and saw a decline in production by two per cent in October against a high 9.9 per cent growth a year before. Besides, mining shrank in October, while electricity showed sluggish expansion. Mining contracted 3.5 per cent against a 0.2 per cent growth in October 2012. Electricity generation rose 1.3 per cent against a 5.5 per cent growth earlier.

Our View: This is a worrying trend. High interest rates, lack of investment and reduction in consumption has taken its toll on the manufacturing sector. Only the export-extensive sectors such as textiles are doing well. Expansion in this sector which is expected to happen in the second half of the year might not be substantial.

Banking Sector

Devrishi Vijain

Kotak Mahindra Bank plans to heighten focus on rural India The metro and market centric Kotak Mahindra Bank plans to expand to rural India faster to remain ahead of the likely rivals in the form of new banks.

Although banks are mandated to open a quarter of their branches in villages with less than 10,000 population, Kotak plans to do more as the cost of setting them is a proportion of what it takes in a city.

The bank said it will open about half of its new branches in rural and semi-rural locations in the next quarter. It has 503 branches with 195 or 39 per cent in rural and semi-rural pockets at the end of September. It plans to take the tally to 600 by March next year and about 45 of the 97 new branches will be opened in the interiors.

"This is part of our expansion plans to reach out to Bharat," said bank's executive vice president and head for branch banking Mahesh Balasubramanian.

Reserve Bank of India is likely to announce new banks early next year with a minimum 25 per cent rural interest to improve banking penetration.

"There is huge business potential. Bharat is a good market to be in. We are not looking it as a necessity,

we are looking at this as business opportunity," he said.

The bank hopes to improve its current and savings account (CASA) ratio from the present level of 29 per cent with this rural penetration plan.

It takes about Rs 2 lakh to set up a bank branch in rural areas while the cost is much higher in towns and metros due to ever increasing rents.

The private sector lender unveiled a financial inclusion programme for milk producing farmers in West Bengal and allow registered members of milk unions to receive payments against supply of milk in their bank or card accounts.

The bank plans to cover 75 villages in Hooghly and Bardhaman districts in West Bengal in the first phase, before implementing it Kaira district of Gujarat covering 1,200 villages. Kotak has 72 branches in Gujarat and 13 in West Bengal.

"We are taking concerted efforts to bridge the barriers to formal banking system across the country through financial inclusion," Balasubramanian said.

Our View: According to a financial inclusion survey by World Bank in 2011, only 35 percent of Indian population had formal bank accounts versus the global average of 50 percent. Nearly 65 percent of the Indian population resides in rural areas which clearly indicate that there is a high scope for growth of banking sector. One recent example of a rural HDFC Bank branch in Chak Kalan village — a farming hamlet about four kilometres off the grain town of Mullanpur Dakha in Punjab's Ludhiana district in November last year has achieved operational break-even, less than eight months since its launch. With extremely low infrastructure and manpower costs involved and with rock-bottom rents involved, the rural branches recover cost and turn profitable earlier than a bank in urban area. Clearly, the decision of the Kotak Mahindra Bank is supported by these statistics and it shall help the bank grow with good numbers with implementation of this new policy of high penetration in the rural markets.

Foreign banks seek clarity on local takeovers Foreign banks operating in India are awaiting clarity on the time-frame within which they will be allowed to acquire a domestic bank in the country, a survey by professional services firm PwC India has shown.

The Reserve Bank of India had recently released norms on granting foreign banks equal treatment as domestic banks, giving them greater leeway to open retail branches and possibly take over Indian institutions if they choose to operate as whollyowned subsidiaries (WOS). It also allowed such subsidiaries to list on local stock exchanges.

"Important issue relating to inorganic growth is the misalignment of shareholding with voting rights (currently capped at 10% with likelihood of enhancement to 26%). Respondents who talked about having an inorganic growth strategy remarked that the present ceiling was insufficient to obtain meaningful degree of control in case of acquisition," the survey of 32 foreign banks said.

As per the new norms, the four big foreign banks in India - Citibank, Standard Chartered Bank, Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corporation and

Deutsche Bank - may escape local incorporation based on the date of entry, which has been fixed at August 2010.

Foreign banks choosing to locally incorporate in the country will have to maintain a net worth of Rs 500 crore. DBS India is the only foreign bank that has expressed an interest in operating a subsidiary in the country. RBI's bid to check the dominance of foreign banks in the country, by curbing their growth beyond 15% of assets and 20% of capital domination, is also a matter of concern for foreign banks. These banks currently account for about 16% of the domestic banking sector's capital and reserves. "The measures to curb further growth (specific approval for new capital infusion in WOS and limiting the number of branches of new banks) do not appear to incentivise the WOS mode of presence, which is somewhat counter-intuitive to the intent," the survey said. The near national treatment and level-playing field offered under the guidelines also mandate the foreign banks with more than 20 branches to meet the priority sector guidelines on a par with the domestic banks.

Our View: The recent step of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to allow foreign banks to takeover smaller Indian institutions and operate as a wholly-owned subsidiary has been one of the most appreciated steps of the RBI for infusion of foreign capital into the country. At the same time, the RBI needs to be clear and transparent on the rules and regulations set for this purpose. Due to earlier issues that had arisen in other sectors due to confusion over laws, policy and process of the Indian side like Vodafone tax dispute, Posco’s withdrawal of steel plant in Karnataka or issues faced by Walmart in India, a negative image of the Indian-side has been created in the foreign markets. Hence, it is natural for the foreign banks and concerned professionals to seek more clarity and predictability in the policies of the RBI.

NBFC Sector

Bhanu Kishore

Why running a bank did not make sense to Tata sons?

Tata Sons, the holding company of the salt to software Tata group, has decided to withdraw its application for a banking license. So you won't see a Tata Bank anytime soon. The reason for the Tatas withdrawing the application for a banking license can be best explained through a line that Walter Bagehot, the great editor of The Economist wrote in his 1873 classic Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market. As Bagehot wrote “the main source of profitableness of established banking is the smallness of requisite capital.� Among other things that the Tata group would have needed to run a bank would have been to consolidate all the financing companies in the group under a nonoperative financial holding company (NOFHC).

This would also mean bringing the non-banking finance companies(NBFCs) of the group like Tata Capital under the umbrella of the NOFHC. And this is where the entire business model of the Tata Bank would have started to become unviable. Among other things that the Tata group would have needed to run a bank would have been to consolidate all the financing companies in the group under a nonoperative financial holding company (NOFHC).

The Tata Bank would have had to maintain a statutory liquidity ratio of 23%. For every Rs 100 that a bank raises as deposits, it needs to compulsorily invest Rs 23 in government bonds.

The bank would also have to maintain a cash reserve ratio of 4%. Rs 4 out of the every Rs 100 that a bank raises as a deposit needs to be parked with the Reserve Bank of India(RBI). Over and above this, the bank would also have to loan 40% of its money to what the Reserve Bank calls the priority sector. This includes lending to certain segments like agriculture, retail traders, selfemployed individuals etc, which can be pretty risky.

These requirements make it difficult for corporates like Tata Sons which run large NBFCs, to turn

themselves into banks. If it wants to convert itself into a bank it will have to park 4% of its time and demand deposits with the RBI as CRR. It also needs to invest 23% of its deposits in government securities to maintain the SLR. An NBFC does not need to do this, but a bank does. This immediately means a higher capital requirement for a bank. The banks do not earn any interest on the money they park as CRR with the RBI. While the risk involved in investing in government securities is low, the returns are low as well. Hence, the increase in profit will not be commiserate with the higher capital that will have to be deployed to run a bank vis a vis an NBFC. And this goes against Bagehot's basic principle of banking. If an NBFC wants to become a bank it needs to ensure that 40% of its lending is to the priority sector. The trouble is that the existing loan book of an NBFC may not meet this requirement. And in order to become a bank it may have to rejig its loan book substantially. Now that, may or may not be financially viable. It may also increase the riskiness of the overall lending.

Further, for an NBFC to become a bank it would have to convert each of its branches into a bank branch over a period of 18 months. It would also have to ensure that 25% of its branches would be in rural areas with populations under 10,000 and without existing bank branches. This is another provision which would require an NBFC wanting to become a bank to invest a substantial amount of capital in setting up branches and other infrastructure. But this wouldn't lead to immediate returns. The norms require that the bank promoter list his business within three years and bring down his shareholding to 40%. This has to be further whittled down to 20% by the 10th year and 15% by the 12th year. As explained, any NBFC looking to become a bank will have to invest a lot of capital to get the business up and running. But the returns

against this money invested will not come immediately. Hence, it is unlikely that when the bank has to list itself three years down the line, it will get a great valuation. Given these reasons, running a bank did not make much sense for Tata Sons. The group also felt that running a bank would come in the way of international operation, which account for 64% of the revenue. A Tata Sons spokesperson explained the reason behind this to several newspapers. As he put it “The operating companies with overseas operations at times need to provide financing solutions to their customers.

Since all financing companies in the group need to be under the NOFHC, there could be situations, wherein a given country is not a priority for the proposed bank but extremely important for an operating company.” The Tata group however did not rule out their interest in the banking sector in the time to come. “The company shall continue to monitor developments in this space with great interest and looks forward to participating in the banking sector at an appropriate time,” Tata Sons said in a statement. The group can look to enter the banking sector in the years to come, given that the

titled Banking Structure in India—The Way Forward released in August 2013, the RBI has proposed issuing banking licenses on tap. “There is a case for reviewing the present ‘stop and go’ or ‘block’ bank licensing policy which promotes rent seeking and considering ‘continuous authorization’ of new banks. Such entry would increase the level of competition, bring new ideas and variety in the system,” the paper said. Foreign banks looking to enter India do so through the continuous authorization process. But domestic aspirants till now have had to wait for the RBI to open the license window. The RBI issued 10 new banking licenses in 1994. It followed it up with two more licenses in 2004.

.

RBI is now looking to provide banking licenses to domestic aspirants on tap. In a discussion paper

Our View: In short, the exit of Tata sons, one of the formidable contenders of bank licenses and the most reputed conglomerates in India showcases the stringent norms setup by RBI for bank applicants to be followed while setting up the bank. It seems that getting profits by setting up a bank is not a mere cake walk.

Is India under the threat of real estate bubble burst?

Japan, the US, Spain and Ireland are examples of high-profile countries whose economies were destabilized by a real estate bubble burst. How and why does real estate cause economic catastrophe?

Can it happen to India as well? The single common

factor for real estate bubble burst across economies is the exposure of the banking sector to inflated asset prices. Economic collapse in all these countries has been led by the banking system.

Japanese banks went through a painful period of

restructuring in the 1990s while the US, Spanish and Irish banks had to be bailed out by the government. How does the banking system get affected by rising asset prices? Here is a simple example to demonstrate the impact of a real estate bubble burst on banks. Customer ‘A’ borrows Rs 80 from Bank ‘B’ to buy a flat worth Rs 100. The value of the flat goes up to Rs 200. A goes to Bank B to borrow Rs 180 to buy another flat worth Rs 200. Bank B does not look at A’s income but looks at the value of the flat being pledged. So it lends Rs 180 to buy the second flat. Bank B has now lent Rs 80 + Rs 180 = Rs 260 to A. Bank B has collateral worth Rs 200 + Rs 200 = Rs 400 for the Rs 260 exposure to A. Now, the asset bubble bursts and value of the two flats that A owns drop by 50%, from Rs 400 to Rs 200. Bank B is now left holding collateral worth Rs 200 for loan of Rs 260 to A, who do not have enough income to service that big a loan. A defaults. A real estate price correction could lead to more NPAs and this could lead to a self-fulfilling cycle of a deep rooted correction in the economy. In an era of sustained rise in real estate prices, A and Bank B transactions keep multiplying. Banks lend to builders to purchase land and construct buildings. They also lend to nonbanking financial companies, which in turn lend to both individuals and builders. In other words, banks have direct and indirect exposure to real estate.

When the bubble bursts, they are left holding worthless piece of collateral. Banks fail leaving depositors in the lurch and the whole financial system collapses if the government and central bank do not step in and bail them out. How are Indian banks placed in their exposure to the real estate sector? India has seen a ten-year period of rising

real estate prices and the sector seems to be cooling off. Commercial property vacancies are 20 percent while residential inventories are rising every day with transactions down 50-60 percent. RBI data on banks as of end March 2013 reveals that banks have an exposure of Rs 1.26 lakh crore to commercial real estate, Rs 4.6 lakh crore to personal mortgages and Rs 2.67 lakh crore to the housing sector. The NBFC sector, including the housing finance companies such as HDFC and LIC Housing Finance, would have an exposure of over Rs 3 lakh crore. Adding banks and NBFC exposure to real estate, the total exposure is around Rs 11.50 lakh crore. This works out to around 10 percent of GDP. Add to this the black money and unofficial lending that happen. The exposure just gets bigger.

However, the economy will not collapse because of a deep correction in prices. But that does not mean that a real estate price correction will not cause pain and suffering to the economy. Banks’ exposure to real estate is around 17 percent of total advances and if there is large-scale default in the sector, all lending will stop leading to strong downtrend in economic growth. Public sector banks gross NPAs (non-performing assets) as percentage of total advances is 4.75 percent as of March 2013 and has more than doubled over the last six years. A real estate price correction could lead to more NPAs and this could lead to a self-fulfilling cycle of a deep rooted correction in the economy. It is best to prick the real estate bubble in India right now to avoid future calamity.

Our View: Definitely NBFCs like HDFC, DHFL which give loans with the collateral of real estate may find it difficult to recover the loans if the bubble bursts. As of now no economist in their companies sees a bubble in real estate market. We never know if there is a bubble or not. All bubble bursts but no one can say the exact time as to when it bursts.

FMCG Sector

Avi Yogen

Pepsico India to setup new plant in Andhra Pradesh Beverages and snacks major PepsiCo India said it will invest over Rs 1,200 Crore to build a new beverage manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh.

The company plans to build a new Greenfield beverage manufacturing plant in Sri City, Andhra Pradesh, which upon completion will be PepsiCo's largest beverage plant in India, PepsiCo India said in a statement.

"PepsiCo intends to invest more than Rs 1,200 Crore in the project, which is part of the recently announced plans by PepsiCo and its partners to invest Rs 33,000 Crore in India by 2020," it added.

The company also announced plans to substantially increase sourcing of mango pulp from Andhra Pradesh in the next six years.

Commenting on the development, PepsiCo India Chairman and CEO D Shivakumar said the new beverage facility is a key part of the company's growth plans for the Indian market and "we are delighted to locate it in Andhra Pradesh".

"Sri City is ideally located and offers the perfect opportunity to harness the benefits of superior connectivity, great infrastructure and an ample talent pool, which are the prerequisites for every industry," he added.

The plant will manufacture a range of beverages, including fruit juice based drinks, carbonated soft drinks and sports drinks.

Welcoming PepsiCo's investment in the state, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy said: "The proposed plant will be completed in three phases and once fully operational, the plant will provide direct and indirect employment to over 8,000 people".

PepsiCo Indian already has a beverage manufacturing plant at Sangareddy in Andhra Pradesh.

With seven production lines, the plant manufactures and supplies PepsiCo products to the entire Andhra Pradesh region and parts of Karnataka.

Our View: PepsiCo India is investing Rs 1200 Crore to set up India’s largest beverage plant at Sri City Andhra Pradesh as part of its 33000 Crore investment plan in India by 2020, to meet the increasing demands of its products in AP and Karnataka. Such a huge investment in India signifies the weight MNCs are placing on investments in India as a very lucrative and profitable. The huge demand and burgeoning demand of cola products points to only one thing, this sector is still very profitable to invest upon.

Dabur India hikes FII investment to 30% FMCG firm, Dabur India Ltd today said its board of directors have approved increasing the investment limit for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the company to 30 per cent from 24 per cent at present.

"By way of passing resolutions by circulation and subject to the approval by the shareholders of the company approved for increase in the investment limit for foreign institutional investors (FIIs) up to 30 per cent," Dabur said in a BSE filing.

company's capital under the Portfolio Investment Scheme (PIS)," Dabur India Ltd Group Director P D Narang said in a statement.

Currently, FIIs hold around 21 per cent shares of the company, which is likely to exceed 24 per cent very shortly, Dabur said in a statement.

Dabur would be seeking consent of the shareholders by postal ballot, it added.

The board of directors through a postal ballot approved the proposal.

"With increased participation by FIIs in the Indian capital market, we have decided to increase the FII investment limit to 30 per cent for investment in

Our View: The move by FMCG major Dabur to increase its FII Investment limit from 24% at present to 30% is a very welcoming move. The increase in FII limit will be bringing more and more Foreign Institutional Investors who were earlier unable to invest in this very profitable company due to the investment cap. I think this will be a good opportunity for retail investors to invest in Dabur as the share prices of Dabur India are expected to appreciate in value due to this move.

IT Sector

Sushant Nayak

Infosys sees bigger exits after big Murthy entry In the eighth high-profile exit from Infosys since co-founder N.R. Narayana Murthy returned as executive chairman with his son Rohan in June, V. Balakrishnan, head of Infosys BPO, Finacle, and India Business Unit and chairman of Infosys Lodestone resigned on Friday.

Balakrishnan, who joined Infosys in 1991, was seen as a strong contender to succeed chief executive officer S.D. Shibulal, who will retire in 2015. The resignation is effective December 31, 2013, Infosys said in a statement.

There has been talk in industry circles about a lot of heartburn in the top management over Rohan Murthy’s role in the organisation. However, Balakrishnan played it down saying, "Rohan's future role in Infosys should not be a cause of concern to anyone." Balakrishnan, who had sold 1 lakh shares of the company on November 6-7 that fetched him Rs 33 crore, said that he had been thinking of stepping down since a long time and had detailed discussions with Murthy on the issue.

Balakrishnan added that he would be starting a private equity fund in partnership with former Infosys director Mohandas Pai and is waiting for approval of the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

Biocon chairperson and managing director Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, who was inducted into the Infosys Board as an independent member on Friday, told a news channel that these exits are part of the big changes happening at Infosys after Murthy's return insisting there is no cause for concern.

Besides, U.B. Pravin Rao has been inducted as a whole-time director. Rao is currently a member of the executive council, senior vice-president and global head of retail, consumer packaged goods, logistics and life sciences. According to sources, Balakrishnan's resignation leaves only Board member B.G. Srinivas among the main internal candidates to succeed Shibulal.

Our View: This exit is in line with the several senior-level departures seen in the firm, which indicates that senior leaders do not see a clear strategic direction, and that the firm struggles to find its feet in terms of what it wants to do in strategy.

Infosys wins contract from Chinese firm FESCO IT services major Infosys today said it has bagged a contract from Chinese firm FESCO to develop a human resource (HR) services platform.

FESCO is the first Chinese firm to provide professional HR services to foreign enterprises, financial institutions and economic organisations in China, India's second largest software services exporter said in a release.

The Bangalore-headquartered firm said: "It has been selected by FESCO to develop HR services platform, iSynergy."

FESCO provides services to more than 10,000 global users located in over 100 countries, Infosys added.

With this platform, FESCO's clients can now access the company's HR offerings through a single window on iSynergy, using self-service options, Infosys said.

iSynergy, designed by Infosys and powered by Oracle PeopleSoft, is a scalable and secure platform geared to meet FESCO's growing customer needs, it added.

It will automate a range of services provided by the Chinese firm covering management of personnel information, organization structure, reporting and payroll.

Incorporated in 2003, Infosys China -- which currently employs about 3,300 people -- has a sales office in Hong Kong, a global education centre in Jiaxing and development centres in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing and Dalian.

The company is developing a new campus at Zizhu Science and Technology Park in Shanghai.

Our View: Enterprises in China are looking to accelerate their transformation and growth. They are looking for partners who understand the requirements of both global and local business environments. Infosys has built world-class delivery capabilities in China with local talent to tap the potential of this fast-growing market.

TCS Insurance launches mobile telematics solution app Tata Consultancy Services (TCS announced the launch of TCS Insurance Telematics Solution, a mobile application which can turns consumers’ smartphones into mobile telematics devices.

Facilitating usage-based insurance (UBI) practices that more closely align consumer driving patterns and habits with auto insurance premiums, the TCS Insurance Telematics solution minimizes the need for a separate, potentially expensive, telematics device provided by the insurer.

“Telematics data has the potential to radically change the way auto insurance is underwritten, and smartphone-based data acquisition presents a lower barrier for consumers than other methods,” said Matthew Josefowicz, managing director at Novarica, a research and advisory firm focused on insurance technology strategy. “While some early adopters built their own telematics capabilities internally, insurers are increasingly turning to partners to help manage data capture and analysis in this important area.”

driving habits and adopt safe behaviors that save them money. By leveraging telematics data for underwriting and actuarial processes, insurers can segment customers based on risk score, perform life time value analysis and, ultimately improve product pricing and strategy.

Telematics provides insurer’s an opportunity to improve customer engagement and service, while having the potential to make our roads safer for all of us,” said Suresh Muthuswami, President, Insurance and Healthcare at TCS. “The TCS Insurance Telematics Solution leverages innovations around digital technologies like mobility, cloud and big data, as well as our proprietary algorithms to help create a new business model for auto insurance,” said TCS’s Vinod Kachroo, Chief Technology Officer, Insurance and Healthcare. “The advanced analytics provides insurers better insights into driving patterns and mobile platform provides consumers new engagement models, creating a win-win for both.”

Now, auto insurance companies can leverage a customized version of the TCS Insurance Telematics application available for iOS and Android devices. Consumers will be able to track

Our View: Telematics is a game changer and will ultimately drive auto insurance premiums in the future. TCS Insurance Telematics Solution is the latest in a series of product innovations from the company’s Insurance Innovation Lab – a state-of-the-art environment for customers to test new ideas and trial new solutions. The Innovation Lab is also working on a Big Data based Telematics Analytics and Insights Solution to help insurers manage telematics data from various sources and analyze the data to provide valuable business insights.

Pharma

Sushant Nayak

Sun Pharma receives nod to sell Cymbalta copy Sun Pharma has said it has received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to sell a copy of drug maker Eli Lilly and Co.’s Cymbalta capsules that is used for the treatment of depression and anxiety disorders.

as it was the first company to file an abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for the drug.

These capsules have annual sales of approximately $5.5 billion in the US, the statement said.

Sun Pharma can sell the capsules for 180 days without competition from rival generic drug makers

Our View: This represents a major shot in the arm for Sun Pharma. With annual sales of the drug amounting to $5.5 billion, this could be a blockbuster drug opportunity for Sun Pharma. Sun Pharma was the first company to file for the ANDA back in 2010. At the time it had gotten a tentative approval from the USFDA for the ANDA. As a result, Sun Pharma has acquired exclusivity rights for a 180 day period. Exclusivity rights significantly boosted Sun Pharma’s profitability in the latest September quarter, and on the basis of the above evidence will continue to do so.

Ranbaxy officials meet Anand Sharma Ranbaxy Labs' parent company Daiichi Sankyo may bring in additional teams of technical experts from Japan to help the former meet quality concerns raised by US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Daiichi President and CEO George Nakayama, who met Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma on Thursday during his visit to India is understood to have given assurance about augmenting quality measures in Ranbaxy's existing plants in India and taking corrective measures to ensure full compliance to US prescribed regulatory norms.

"They (Daiichi) would continue to extend technical assistance and bring in more experts from home country to ensure that the company's (Ranbaxy's) plants are meeting and addressing all concerns

raised by US FDA," said an official in the know. A Ranbaxy spokesperson said Nakayama's meeting with Sharma was a 'courtesy visit'. Daiichi also plans to upgrade quality standards, particularly in Ranbaxy's Mohali plant, the latest facility, from which US barred products.

In September, the US FDA slapped an import alert on drugs manufactured by the company at its Mohali plant in Punjab for violation of current good manufacturing practices (GMPs).

This was the company's third plant after the Paonta Sahib (Himachal Pradesh) and Dewas (Madhya Pradesh) plants, which was red-flagged by the US drug regulator for violation of the GMP norms.

The other two plants have been facing an import alert since 2008. US drug regulator imposed the ban on two of Ranbaxy's plants months after Daiichi bought a majority stake in Ranbaxy.

In May, Ranbaxy pleaded guilty to "felony charges" for manufacturing 'adulterated' drugs at two of its Indian plants and distributing them in the US market and agreed to pay $500 million to the US government as penalty.

Our View: The meeting assumes significance as Ranbaxy is continuing to face trouble in the US – the world’s largest pharmaceutical market which has been a major setback for Ranbaxy as the US was a major contributor to the company’s consolidated revenues.

The meeting also comes in the wake of India-US diplomatic row following the arrest and strip-search of India’s deputy consul general Devyani Khobragade in New York. The matter has escalated after India ordered reprisals against the US. Ranbaxy’s meeting with Sharma could be a possible advocacy move. Ranbaxy’s issues have been long pending now and there is no clear sign of resolution. It is possible that the company is now looking for government support to resolve the matter.

Telecom Sector

Kinshul Jogatar

Call quality falls as telcos shut cell sites to cut costs Consumers are experiencing an increase in failed and dropped calls as telcos shut cell sites to cut costs and slash capital expenditure on upgrading networks while the government's stiff radiation norms impose restrictions on the network coverage of these companies. Analysts add that operators are spending most of their capex to beef up their 3G network, which is mainly used for premium data services, rather than on 2G, which is primarily used for voice.

data transmission than on 2G for voice transmission," he added.

A cell site sends and receives radio signals from a mobile phone. A large number of them put together form a cellular network, be it 2G, mainly used for voice, and 3G, mainly used for high speed data.

Increasing or decreasing the number or power of these sites affects the strength of the cellular signal, thus affecting service quality.

"The tariffs have hit rock bottom and it typically pays off more to invest on a 3G cell site for better

Our View: India is a spectrum starved country with these strict emission norms coming in. So, one way to beat the odds is to invest more in the cell sites but companies have typically begun to invest lesser and lesser on their networks since the investments don't yield adequate returns. Hence, unless telcos rejig their business models and improve their balance sheets, call quality, especially for 2G services is unlikely to improve in the near future.

Instant messaging app Nimbuzz ties up with Idea Cellular India-based instant messaging app Nimbuzz has tied up with mobile phone company Idea Cellular, the third largest mobile services provider in India, to introduce a Nimbuzz-data pack worth Rs 11 for 50 MB data usage on Nimbuzz.

Idea CellularBSE -0.06 % did not respond to queries from ET asking confirmation of the tie up and launch of a study buddy iKen on the Nimbuzz platform.

Idea Cellular has also tied up with Nimbuzz for iKen Study Buddy which offers a comprehensive education solution available allowing students to prepare for their school examinations. iKen is an interactive knowledge s haring platform has multiple choice questions in a bank that will allow students to map their academic progress on a daily basis. It will be available for download on

Nimbuzz's in-platform app ecosystem from Tuesday, Saxena added.

Students from class VI-XII will benefit as they prepare for their examinations through an interactive chat based module that would individually assist them with different subjects covered by the CBSE syllabus.

The Study Buddy will appear as a contact on the chat roster of Nimbuzz users across the country.

Nimbuzz Chat Buddies have been extremely successful in creating value that extends beyond user's basic communication needs.

Our View: The move marks a change in today's telecommunication landscape, while there has been a perception of messaging app cannibalizing operators' revenue, this development highlighted a new level of app-operator association where an operator can increase its ARPU by partnering mobile messaging players. Such tie-ups between different stakeholders in the mobile telephony market will lead to greater synergies and thus improved services for the customers.

Procure own EMF testing equipment for towers: Parliament panel Dot A Parliamentary panel has criticised the DoT for using equipment provided by telecom operators to test radiation levels of towers and asked the Department to procures its own gears.

The Standing Committee on Information Technology questioned the credibility of the exercise to check electromagnetic field (EMF) radiation at telecom towers when the testing equipment are provided by operators who set up the towers.

The panel said it took a very serious view of callous attitude of the Department of Telecom (DoT) towards a very important issue of measuring of EMF radiations which concern with the human health and environment.

The committee had earlier recommended to DoT to procure sufficient number of instruments in order to become self-sufficient in EMF testing.

"The committee express their serious displeasure over the fact that the Department has not shown any kind of urgency in procuring the EMF testing equipment and simply stated that the procurement of 69 sets of test equipment for TERM cells in under process in TEC," it said.

The panel, therefore, reiterates that DoT should procure 69 EMF testing instruments within a

specific timeframe so as to enable TERM cells to measures radiation levels from telecom towers.

The committee had also recommended that efforts should be made to promote domestic production of EMF instrument instead of relying only on import.

Our View: We strongly feel that the existing mechanism wherein the TSPs (telecom service providers) provide the equipment for monitoring the radiation of BTS (base tower stations) sites set up by themselves puts the credibility of the entire exercise under question. This raises doubts about the independence of DoT.

Auto Sector

Nibodh Shetty

Carmakers to Increase Prices in Jan Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Toyota, General Motors and others look set to raise car prices in January because of higher overheads, although sales have declined for most of this year. The unsaid consensus is raising prices could prompt an uptick in December sales as prospective buyers seek out bargains before then. Luxury carmakers Audi and BMW have already announced price increases of 510% next month.

“We have not decided the exact quantum but most of our models would be (more) expensive from January,” said Rakesh Srivastava, senior vicepresident, sales and marketing, Hyundai Motor India. “There has been tremendous pressure on account of swelling input costs and” a weak rupee has led to component imports becoming costlier.

The country’s largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki has also indicated it will increase prices because of increasing input costs and the depreciating rupee.

General Motors will announce a price rise of 1-2% soon on its cars and multi utility vehicles.

Carmakers haven’t been able to hold prices this year, although sales have been muted over the past

two years as economic growth slumped to the lowest in a decade. The government and the central bank expect a stronger second half but there’s no sustained concrete evidence yet of a revival. Car sales fell 8% in November last year, the first decline in four years. That trend has continued.

While sales dropped around 6% this year, car companies have raised prices four to five times to balance their profit margins in a shrinking market.

Ironically, they also had to offer discounts at the retail end to push vehicles out the showroom door.

“In an optimistic environment companies, may sacrifice some profitability in exchange for market share considering that the market will grow and larger numbers will deliver greater profits.

However, in a pessimistic environment, like what it is today, it makes sense for companies to preserve their profitability as there is no guarantee that volumes will grow fast,” said Deepesh Rathore, director at Emerging Markets Automotive Advisors, an automotive research and advisory firm. “That is why companies are keen to pass on any price increases, commodity or tax, to the customers.”

Our view: As we have been reporting the auto sales have been muted for most part of the year. Automaker tried giving discounts but their sales didn’t pick up. Now they are finding it even more difficult to sustain the increase in prices since the volumes are very low. Hence automakers are planning to hike their prices. This may lead to further drop in sales. .

M&M, Tata Motors & Toyota See Fall in Nov Passenger Vehicle Sales Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors and Toyota Kirloskar Motors reported fall in passenger vehicle sales in the domestic market yet again in November as negative sentiment continued to play spoilsport in the market.

Utility vehicle major Mahindra & Mahindra’s passenger vehicle sales declined 32% to 16,771 units in November from 24,604 units in the same month last year as new compact SUVs such as the Ford EcoSport and Renault Duster continued to eat into its market share. Another factor that has hit Mahindra’s sales is the higher excise duty on utility vehicles imposed in the budget.

“After the festive season, the auto industry has further declined and continues to remain subdued,” Pravin Shah, chief executive — automotive division, Mahindra & Mahindra, said. “Unless some concrete measures are provided for its revival, we do not foresee any immediate turnaround,” he added.

M&M’s total domestic sales including threewheelers and commercial vehicles declined 22% year-on-year to 36,261 units in November. The only silver lining for the company was that its exports increased 116% to 2,994 vehicles. Tata Motors, too, continued its downhill journey in November when .

its passenger vehicle sales declined 42% to 10,376 units from 18,031 vehicles, a year earlier. It sold just 7,910 cars including Nano, Indica and Indigo, while sales of the utility vehicle range comprising of Sumo, Safari, Aria and Venture stood at 2,466 units.

Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker, continued its tough ride in India with its domestic sales dipping slightly by 144 units in November at 10,208 units.

“The market continues to be sluggish and market sentiment is not expected to improve in the coming months,” Sandeep Singh, deputy MD and COO (marketing and commercial), Toyota Kirloskar Motor, said. Toyota’s total sales, including exports, however, increased 12% year-on-year to 12,748 vehicles, thanks to exports of 2,540 Etios.

Most other carmakers, including top two — Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motors — are expected to release their November sales data on Monday.

Car sales in India have been falling for the second straight fiscal this year as high interest rates and a slowing economy have forced many consumers to put off purchases. Industry body, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, is expected to revise its forecast for the fiscal from 3-5% growth to negative as the industry reported declining sales in a majority of months

Our view: Again as reported earlier this has been a dismal year for auto companies. Despite a festive season of Diwali where auto companies report the highest number of bookings, M & M and Tata have reported fall in sales. The stocks of auto companies may not be a good buy for this financial year.

Power

Jay Sheth

Power Ministry to move Cabinet in a month for amending Electricity Act The Power Ministry is likely to approach the Cabinet within a month on the issue of amending the Electricity Act 2003.

"We have received feedback from all the stakeholders, we will compile all the suggestions, analyse it and then send it to the Cabinet for approval," a Power Ministry official told PTI, adding that this process will take about a month.

Stakeholders who have submitted feedback on the topic include Central Electricity Authority ( CEA), Central Electricity Regulatory Commission ( CERC), Principal Secretaries of all the state governments and chairpersons of power generation, transmission and distribution utilities.

meeting in June this year, had deliberated on amendments to the Electricity Act. According to various sources in the ministry, one of the suggestions made by the committee is to have a formula which would ensure that variation in fuel and power purchase cost is recovered by the power generating firms.

The advisory group was set up against the backdrop of multiple problems, including acute fuel shortages, hurting power generation in the country.

Members of the group include Tata Group Chairman Cyrus Mistry, Reliance Group Chairman Anil Ambani, SBI Chairman Pratip Chowdhary and ICICI Bank Managing Director Chanda Kochhar.

The government-appointed committee, Chaired by Power Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, during its Our View: The government plans to amend laws to provide more powers to state regulatory commissions and load dispatch centers so as to ensure proper functioning of electricity grids. Following the massive grid failures last year that impacted more than half the country's population, the ministry initiated various steps to prevent similar incidents. Also plans are on the anvil for having a dynamic security assessment system for electricity grids to make real time assessments.

The amendment will seek to see that the tribunal may not have powers over administrative functions of the regulators.

CERC draft guidelines may dent power firms' profits: Crisil Draft guidelines released by the central electricity regulator, if implemented in current form, may reduce the annual profit of Crisil-rated power utilities by Rs 1,400 crore as compared to figures of the last fiscal, a report said today.

"The adverse impact of these provisions is only marginally off-set by benefits such as higher escalation rate for operating and maintenance expenses and increase in late- payment charges," the report noted.

However, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission's (CERC) guidelines will not impact the credit profile of these utilities, rating agency Crisil said.

The rating agency said the most important stipulation in guidelines is the change in reimbursement of expense on tax relating to return on equity, which will now be linked to actual tax outflow, rather than the applicable statutory tax rates as in the norm now.

"The CERC's recent draft tariff guidelines for power utilities have potential, if implemented in the current form, to reduce aggregate annual profits of Crisil-rated utilities by Rs 1,400 crore, or nearly 7 per cent of their profits in the last fiscal," the agency said in the report.

On zero impact on credit profile, Senior Director of Crisil, Pawan Agrawal said, "The guidelines retain the crucial feature of availability-based fixed-cost recovery which covers debt servicing for the utilities. This will help them maintain stability in cash flows, and therefore, in credit quality."

The guidelines stipulate a change in the manner of reimbursement of tax, a stringent incentive structure and stricter operating parameters for power utilities.

Moreover, reimbursement of tax on incentives needs to be borne by the power utilities themselves, it said. "The impact of change in the manner of reimbursement of tax expense is expected to be greater on the central power utilities.

On the provisions of incentive structure for power firms, which has been made stringent in the CERC draft, Agrawal said, "these will reduce the utilities' profits from existing as well as underimplementation projects.

"For generators, the shift to a PLF-linked incentive structure can result in significant loss of incentive income, given the fuel availability challenges faced by the sector."

Our View: The main highlight of this draft is that power tariffs according to this, are set to get cheaper. This new draft is set to remove the tax arbitrage which existed when companies like NTPC charged a higher tax rate from its customers leading to a tax arbitrage for NTPC alont at 500 crore a year.

The guidelines retain the crucial feature of availability-based fixed-cost recovery, which covers debt servicing for these utilities. This will help them maintain stability in cash flows, and therefore, in credit quality. Though incentives for these companies have moved from being based on whether the plant is available for power production to whether it is actually generating power, recovery of fixed costs is based on whether the plant is available for production—the “Plant Availability Factor� of the new guidelines.

The guidelines are applicable only for plants regulated by CERC and do not cover either the competitively bid ultra-mega power projects or plants that are covered by state-level regulations.

Cement Sector

Nitin Mali

Cement makers raise prices, but margins may remain tight KOLKATA: Cement prices have been firming up across markets since the end of the monsoon with wholesale prices in Delhi and Chandigarh almost reaching pre-monsoon levels. In last two months since September, cement manufacturers have raised prices, with wholesale prices going up by anywhere between Rs 5 and Rs 40 per bag in the north, west and eastern regions. In line with improved demand and prices, profitability of cement companies is also expected to improve sequentially.

However, margins will continue to remain under pressure on a year-on-year basis, according to reports on trends in the cement sector.

The forecast comes in the wake of a modest 3.9% increase in domestic production of cement during first half of FY14 primarily due to weak demand from end-user industries. Delays in environmental clearances for industrial and infrastructure projects and non-availability of sand in some states contributed to slow growth.

"The outlook for cement industry continues to remain challenging with both demand and prices continuing to remain under pressure," ICRA said in its latest quarterly update study on cement industry. Cost-push factors like rising costs of raw material, domestic coal and freight continue to put pressure on the sector's profitability.

In particular, "cement manufacturers have had to absorb cost increases stemming from continued hike in diesel prices, rise in domestic coal prices by Coal India and international coal prices and due to weakening of the rupee," the report added.

"Further, delay in arrival of monsoon season last year had resulted in continuation of construction activities till July. The impact of monsoon was felt only from mid-August 2012," Sabyasachi Majumdar, senior vice president, ICRA said.

Is the tide turning in cement sector now?

Cement demand is improving in five states supported by a sharp price increase of Rs 30-40/ bag in the past two months. Three other states are showing initial signs of demand picking up.

Brokerage firm ICICI Securities says that healthy rural housing demand due to a good monsoon, gradual pick up in government infrastructure spends and low base of the past year are helping the revival in the sector which has underperformed the broad market in the past one month.

"We believe that near-term challenges related to higher costs, low capacity utilisations as well as pressure on RoEs are likely to impact the sector, but Q3FY14 results for most of the companies are likely to witness an improvement sequentially in revenues and margins on cement price hikes.

Thus current weakness should be used to buy attractively valued stocks like Grasim and Shree Cements," said Teena Virmani, analyst at Kotak Securities.

Capital Goods

Rohan Muntode

Capital goods & infra stocks likely to benefit if Narendra Modi wins Stocks belonging to the capital goods, infrastructure and power sectors are likely to benefit from new policies to kickstart growth if the Narendra Modiled BJP emerges victorious in the 2014 general elections as the market moves towards taking specific bets on sectors and stocks.

Already, infra and capital goods indices as well as select stocks have rallied sharply, partly on expectations of a BJP/NDA victory next year. Since the announcement of Modi as the BJP prime ministerial candidate, the BSE capital goods index has risen a massive 40% compared with Sensex's rise of just 11%. The ET Power index has also outperformed the Sensex with a 12% rise since September.

Market experts believe that a prospective BJP government will announce policies to lift economic growth and revive stalled projects, especially those in the power sector. In some of his speeches, Narendra Modi has criticised the UPA government for not doing enough to revive stalled power projects, while in others he has called for more investment to revive job creation.

Infrastructure, power and capital goods are obvious focus areas. Capital goods stocks are closely linked to changes in investment cycle and signs that a prospective Modi government may focus on them are being regarded favourably.

Our View: BJP and Modi, in particular, have been focused on infrastructure and capital spending in the past. It is expected that the new government's priority would be on infrastructure spending which will in turn benefit the capital goods sector.