Q1 | 2018
New York City
Market Update
Web: 00111270
All New York City
Luxury Market
04 Market Overview
09 Luxury Market
05 Market Snapshot | All Areas 06 Inventory | Absorption Rate 07 Days on Market | Listing Discount
Ownership Type Analysis
Neighborhood Analysis
10 Condos
14 Upper East Side
12 Co-ops
14 Upper West Side 15 Midtown 15 Uptown 16 Downtown 16 FiDi | Battery Park 17 Total Sales 17 Average Sales Price
New York City Market Overview
Lower sales volume, rising inventory and a general lack of urgency on the part of buyers sustained a market correction that ensued last quarter. While lower price statistics were more about fewer new construction sales than about tax reform, buyers remained cautious and skeptical about what constitutes fair and realistic pricing. According to Vanderbilt Appraisal Services, the 2,371 closed sales in Q1 2018 were a 19% decline from the prior year, mainly due to the wave of new construction activity abating. An overall 9% decline in the average sale price was coupled with a more modest 3% decline in the median sale price. The average sale price fell under $2M for the third consecutive quarter which can also be largely attributed to reaching the near full sequence of the latest new construction cycle. The under $3M market made up 85% of all sales activity in Q1 2018 and posted 17% fewer sales than the prior year. However, this segment posted a 4% increase in the average sale price and 6% increase in median sale price. Both the average and median sale prices in the $3M to $10M category declined 3%. The $10M+ price category reflected a 37% drop in the number of closed sales with a 12% reduction in the average price and 6% drop in median price. In Q1 2018, the average sale price of all recorded Manhattan apartment sales was $1.95M, a 9% decline over prior year. The median sale price of $1.2M was a minor 3% decline over the prior year. The median sale price for all of Manhattan has registered over $1M for 11 consecutive quarters. The number of sales declined in the first quarter of the year to 2,371 from 2,923 in the first quarter of 2017. Inventory is at 6,256 listings, which is 9% higher than the 5,725 listings the prior year. This level of inventory is still below normalized supply levels of 8,000-9,000+/- listings.
DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Diane Levine, Brokerage Manager 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, NY 10010 | 212.431.2440 EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Marissa Ghesquiere, Brokerage Manager 38 E. 61st Street | New York, NY 10065 | 212.606.7784 WEST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Diane Levine, Brokerage Manager 2244 Broadway | New York, NY 10024 | 212.579.9300 sothebyshomes.com/nyc © MMXVIII Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.
Web: 0139764
Number of Closed Sales vs. Inventory
Average / Median Sales Price
7000 $2,500,000
6000 5000
$2,000,000
4000
$1,500,000
3000 $1,000,000 2000 $500,000
1000
$0
0
Q2:16
Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:18 # of Closed Sales
# of Closed Sales
Q4:16
Q2:17
Q4:17
Inventory Average Sales Price Average Sales Price
Inventory
Median Sales Price Median Sales Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
{2018 v 2017}
-17%
4%
6%
Q1 ‘18
2010
$1,161,000
$950,000
Q1 ‘17
2412
$1,120,000
$900,000
{2018 v 2017}
-28%
-3%
-3%
Q1 ‘18
309
$4,840,000
$4,300,000
Q1 ‘17
428
$5,001,000
$4,425,000
{2018 v 2017}
-37%
-12%
-6%
Q1 ‘18
52
$15,500,000
$13,575,000
Q1 ‘17
83
$17,600,000
$14,420,000
{2018 v 2017}
-19%
-9%
-3%
Q1 ‘18
2371
$1,945,000
$1,190,000
Q1 ‘17
2923
$2,139,000
$1,230,000
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
OVER
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Overview
/ New York City Q1 Market Update
Inventory All New York City
2% 8%
4% 28%
10%
23% 25%
Number of Active Listings 1762 1593 1460 606 486 245 104
Under $1 Million $1 - 2 Million $2 - 4 Million $4 - 6 Million $6 - 10 Million $10 - 20 Million $20 Million and Above
CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 6 months of closed sales 10/01/2017-03/31/2018) The overall Manhattan absorption is 7.1 months (up from 5.8 months in prior year). This level of inventory generally signifies a market in â&#x20AC;&#x153;equilibriumâ&#x20AC;?. However, certain pockets and price segments in the market continue to be weak with supply conditions heavily favoring buyers. The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 6-9 months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6-month period. The lower price segments continue to experience shortages of inventory with < $1mil at 4.3 months of supply and from $1mil- $2mil at 6.8 months of supply. Units priced from $6mil to $10mil have a 17.4-month absorption rate. The top two price tiers above $10mil have well over one year supply. This is an oversupply condition that will likely lead to continued discounts and longer marketing time for the highest valued properties. As the oversupply continues in the highest price brackets, it is increasingly more difficult for sellers in the top price segments to remain inflexible in their price expectations. 25 20
Absorption Rate
15 10
Line of Equilibrium Absorbtion
5 0
< $1mil $1mil - > $2mil - > $4mil - >$6mil - > $10mil $20mil+ $2mil $4mil $6mil $10mil < $20mil
Average Days on Market Listing Discount
All New York City
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Average Days on Market
88
84
91
96
98
82
90
95
Listing Discount
7%
6%
7%
3%
6%
5%
5%
4%
Average Days on Market vs. Listing Discount 8%
120
7%
100
6% 80
5% 4%
60
3%
40
2% 20
1%
0
0%
Q2:16
Q3:16
Q4:16
Q1:17
Average Days on Market
Q2:17
Q3:17
Q4:17
Q1:18
Listing Discount
Overview
/ New York City Q1 Market Update
Flawless.
Exceptional Diamonds. Curated by Sothebyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s.
SALON OPEN NEW BOND STREET, LONDON. SOTHEBYSDIAMONDS.COM
The Luxury Market All New York City Co-Ops, Condos & Townhouses Over $10m
Total Volume by Price Point Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
67
72
95
82
61
53
72
Average Sales Price
$18,935,000
$18,527,000
$17,800,000
$17,582,000
$15,749,000
$18,373,617
$15,465,000
Highest Sales Price
$59,144,000
$60,894,000
$65,662,000
$55,000,000 $44,000,000 $91,000,000 $39,000,000
# of Closed Sales
Over the 1st quarter of 2018 there were 72 ultra-luxury sales, which is a 24% decline from the prior year. The average sale price in this market sector was $15,465,000 which was lower than prior year which had an average of $17,800,000. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $39mil for an Upper East Side townhouse at 16 East 69th Street. s ot h ebys h o m es.c o m /n yc
Average Selling Price vs. # of Closed Sales 150
$20,000,000
120
$16,000,000
90
$12,000,000
60
$8,000,000
30
$4,000,000
0
$0
Q2:16
Q3:16
Q4:16
Q1:17 # of Closed Sales
# of Closed Sales
Q2:17
Q3:17
Q4:17
1Q:18
Average Sales Price
Average Sales Price
The Luxury Market
/ New York City Q1 Market Update
Condos {Q1 | 2018}
manhattan
Average condominium sales prices were substantially lower with 30% fewer sales overall. The 1,011 closed condo sales this quarter was the lowest number of sales in the past 8 quarters. This is logical given that the latest wave of new development activity that started in 2015 has neared the end of the cycle. The average sale price declined 13% to $2,740,000 year over year while the median sale price fell 8% to $1,725,000. The average price per square foot was also lower as the measure fell 11% to $1,863. In the under $3mil segment, the average sale price of $1,465,000 was 5% higher than prior year while the median sale price also increased 5% to end at $1,300,000. For condo units over $10mil, there were 44% fewer sales with a drop in the average sale price to $15,950,000. Average sales price over $10mil was down 9% year over year as sellers in this category initiated a more realistic stance on pricing. The average price per square foot for units valued over $10mil was 11% lower than prior year, ending at $3,750 per SF.
Web: 0139751
-13
%
Change in Average Selling Price {2018 v 2017}
30
%
Change in Units Sold {2018 v 2017}
1,011 Units Sold
2.74m
$
Average Selling Price
Number of Closed Sales
1800
Average / Median Sales Price
$3,500,000
1600
$3,000,000
1400
$2,500,000
1200
$2,000,000
1000 $1,500,000 800 $1,000,000 600 $500,000
400
$0
200
Q2:16
0
Q4:16
Average Sales Price
Average Sales Price
Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:18
Q2:17
Q4:17
Median Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Median Price/Sq.Ft.
{2018 v 2017}
-27%
5%
5%
5%
Q1 ‘18
758
$1,465,000
$1,300,000
$1,501
Q1 ‘17
1036
$1,389,000
$1,235,000
$1,435
{2018 v 2017}
-37%
-4%
-2%
-5%
Q1 ‘18
217
$4,900,000
$4,400,000
$2,240
Q1 ‘17
344
$5,100,000
$4,500,000
$2,370
{2018 v 2017}
-44%
-9%
-4%
-11%
Q1 ‘18
36
$15,950,000
$13,650,000
$3,750
Q1 ‘17
64
$17,600,000
$14,250,000
$4,200
{2018 v 2017}
-30%
-13%
-8%
-11%
Q1 ‘18
1011
$2,740,000
$1,725,000
$1,863
Q1 ‘17
1444
$3,150,000
$1,875,000
$2,090
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
ABOVE
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Condos
/ New York City Q1 Market Update
Co-Ops {Q1 | 2018}
manhattan
First quarter 2018 co-op average sales price was down by 8% from the prior year and 10% lower compared to prior quarter. The average overall co-op price was higher by 12% compared to the prior year at $1,355,000. In the under $3mil segment, the average sale price increased 6% and the median sale price also increased 6% year over year. There were 9% fewer sales in the under $3mil segment. For co-op units in the price tier ranging from $3mil to $10 mil, the measures posted a nominal gain of 1% in the average sales price while the median sales price gained 8% year over year. There were only 16 recorded sales in the top tier co-op price bracket $10mil and higher, posting an average price of $14,966,000 which was 16% lower than prior year.
12
%
Change in Average Selling Price {2018 v 2017}
-8
%
Change in Units Sold {2018 v 2017}
1,360 Units Sold
1.35m
$
Average Selling Price
Web: 00111610
Number of Closed Sales
Average / Median Sales Price
2500 $1,600,000 $1,400,000
2000
$1,200,000 $1,000,000
1500
$800,000 $600,000
1000
$400,000 $200,000 500
$0
Q2:16 0
Q4:16
Average Sales Price
Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17 Q3:17 Q4:17 1Q:18
Average Sales Price
Q2:17
Q4:17
Median Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Number of Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
{2018 v 2017}
-9%
6%
6%
Q1 ‘18
1252
$976,000
$770,000
Q1 ‘17
1376
$918,000
$725,000
{2018 v 2017}
10%
1%
8%
Q1 ‘18
92
$4,710,000
$4,150,000
Q1 ‘17
84
$4,650,000
$3,850,000
{2018 v 2017}
-16%
-16%
-6%
Q1 ‘18
16
$14,966,000
$13,800,000
Q1 ‘17
19
$17,775,000
$14,750,000
{2018 v 2017}
-8%
12%
9%
Q1 ‘18
1360
$1,355,000
$815,000
Q1 ‘17
1479
$1,210,000
$750,000
UNDER
$3 Million
BETWEEN
$3 - 10 Million
ABOVE
$10 Million
ALL
Price Points
Co-Ops
/ New York City Q1 Market Update
new york city
Neighborhood Highlights Upper East Side
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
141
189
-25%
Average Sales Price
$2,413,000
$2,933,000
-18%
Median Sales Price
$1,750,000
$1,677,000
4%
COOPS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
354
385
-8%
Average Sales Price
$1,810,000
$1,625,000
11%
Median Sales Price
$907,000
$818,000
11%
Closed Sales
The Upper East market area exhibited 8% fewer sales in the coop sector. However, the average co-op sale price posted an 11% increase to $1,810,000. This quarter, condos posted 25% fewer sales and an average price of $2,413,000, 18% lower than 2017. The median price figures were $907,000 for co-op units, an 11% increase. Condo sales had a median of $1,750,000.
Upper West Side
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
146
161
-9%
Average Sales Price
$2,650,000
$3,154,000
-16%
Median Sales Price
$1,625,000
$1,595,000
2%
COOPS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
266
282
-6%
Average Sales Price
$1,755,000
$1,593,000
10%
Median Sales Price
$915,000
$875,000
5%
Closed Sales
The total number of co-op sales on the Upper West Side was 266, a decline of 6% from the prior year. However, co-ops in this market area posted an average sale price of $1,755,000, a 10% increase from the prior year. The condo sector had slightly lower sales volume with 146 closings. These sales had an average sale price of $2,650,000, a 16% drop from prior year.
Midtown
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
202
269
-25%
Average Sales Price
$2,593,000
$2,397,000
8%
Median Sales Price
$1,370,000
$1,388,000
-1%
COOPS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
221
245
-10%
Average Sales Price
$915,000
$938,000
-2%
Median Sales Price
$676,000
$650,000
4%
Closed Sales
The average co-op sale price in this market area was marginally lower ending at $915,000 while the median co-op price was up slightly to $676,000. This market area had an average condo sale price of $2,593,000 which was 8% higher than last year. The median sale price was essentially stable at $1,370,000.
Uptown
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
61
85
-28%
Average Sales Price
$1,110,000
$872,000
27%
Median Sales Price
$800,000
$705,000
13%
COOPS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
137
122
12%
Average Sales Price
$602,000
$528,000
14%
Median Sales Price
$520,000
$489,000
6%
Closed Sales
The average price of co-ops was $602,000 which was 14% higher compared to prior year. The median sale price of a co-op unit increased 5% to $676,000. The number of co-ops sold increased 12% as this was the only market segment with higher sales compared with last year. The average condo sales price to $1,110,000, a gain of 27% over prior year.
Neighborhood Highlights
/ New York City Q1 Market Update
new york city
Neighborhood Highlights Downtown
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
404
581
-30%
Average Sales Price
$3,177,000
$3,940,000
-19%
Median Sales Price
$2,195,000
$2,550,000
-14%
COOPS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
365
420
-13%
Average Sales Price
$1,369,000
$1,115,000
23%
Median Sales Price
$930,000
$829,000
12%
Closed Sales
The 365 co-op sales in the 1st quarter of 2018 marked a 13% decline year over year. The co-op average sale price measure was up 23%, rising to $1,369,000 versus $1,115,000 exhibited prior year. The median co-op sale price was also higher ending this quarter at $930,000. In the condo sector, fewer new construction sales caused price measures to decline.
Financial District / Battery Park
{# of Closed Sales | Average Sales Price | Median Sale Price - Year over Year}
CONDOS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
Closed Sales
57
159
-64%
Average Sales Price
$1,600,000
$3,178,000
-50%
Median Sales Price
$1,175,000
$2,050,000
-43%
COOPS
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
% Change
17
25
-32%
Average Sales Price
$1,022,000
$931,000
10%
Median Sales Price
$886,000
$815,000
9%
Closed Sales
57 condo units closed in the first quarter of 2018, a major decline of 64% over the prior year. Condominium price measures were substantially lower because of far fewer new construction sales. This market area has the fewest co-ops of any market with just 17 closed co-op sales. These sales displayed an average sale price of $1,022,000 while the median sale price was $886,000.
Total Number of Sales by Neighborhood 1400 1200 Upper East Side
1000
Upper East Side
Upper West Side
Upper West Side
800
Midtown
Midtown
600
Downtown
Downtown
Uptown
400
Uptown
Fi Di / Battery Park City
200
FiDi / Battery Park
0
Q2:16
Q3:16
Q4:16
Q1:17
Q2:17
Q3:17
Q4:17
Q1:18
Average Sales Price by Neighborhood $3,000,000 $2,500,000 Upper Upper East Side East Side
$2,000,000
West Side Upper Upper West Side Midtown Midtown
$1,500,000
Downtown Uptown $1,000,000
Uptown Downtown / Battery Fi Di / FiDi Battery Park Park City
$500,000 $0
Q2:16
Q3:16
Q4:16
Q1:17
Q2:17
Q3:17
Q4:17
Q1:18
Neighborhood Highlights
/ New York City Q1 Market Update
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© MMXVIII Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.