Sebastopol, CA | web ID: 0244232
Todd & Lisa Sheppard
Wine Country Market Update Fourth Quarter 2016 SONOMA & NAPA - WINE COUNTRY BROKERAGES 25 East Napa Street, Sonoma | t: 707.935.2288 722 Broadway Street, Sonoma | t: 707.939.2230 428 First Street East, Sonoma | t: 707.939.4460
sothebyshomes.com
All data within this document is pulled from the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS)
A MESSAGE FROM OUR MANAGER: Jonathan Soh Whether driven by rising interest rates, political climate or general market trends, inconsistencies once again characterize the Wine Country market. According to data source Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, regions within the Wine Country varied in many categories when comparing Q4 2015 to Q4 2016. Smaller markets such as Calistoga and Sebastopol showed significant increases in closed volume. Calistoga closed volume increased 105% from $8M to $16.4M between Q4 2015 and Q4 2016 and Sebastopol closed volume increased 26% from $45M to $58M during the same time period. Both Calistoga and Sebastopol fared well in other categories. Average sales price increased 76% in Calistoga from $669K to $1M and 28% in Sebastopol from $776K to $996K between Q4 2015 and Q4 2016. Closed units increased 17% in Calistoga during this time period and only declined slightly in Sebastopol by 8%2%. Conversely, closed volume for single-family homes decreased by 8% in both the City of Napa and Sonoma 14% Valley from $171M to $157M in the City of Napa between Q4 2015 and Q4 2016<and 1M from $108M to $99K in Sonoma Valley during the same time period. $1M - $2.0M $2.0M and up
79%
HEALDSBURG MARKET SUMMARY (SFH) The Healdsburg market had a healthy growth of 4% in Closed Volume from $44,513,825 to $46,434,500 between Q4 2015 and Q4 2016. This was largely driven by the price categories $1M - $2M and $2M and up. These price segments showed an increase of 62% and 86% respectively between Q4 2015 and Q4 2016. Healdsburg experienced a 29% increase in Average Sales Price from $856,035 to $1,105,583 and of particular interest is the price category $2M and up where the Average Sales Price increased by 86% from $2,291,667 in Q4 2015 to $4,266,667 in Q4 2016. And while Closed Units declined by 19% in Healdsburg during Q4 2016 from 52 units to 42 units, the price category $1M - $2M increased by 71% Q4 2016 over Q4 2015 from 7 to 12 units. Healdsburg continues to be a popular second home market for buyers from San Francisco Bay Area and beyond.
HEALDSBURG VOLUME
28% 38%
< 1M $1M - $2.0M $2.0M and up
34%
SANTA ROSA/WINDSOR MARKET SUMMARY The Santa Rosa/Windsor market experienced 7% growth in Closed Volume from $297,009,667 in Q4 2015 to $318,963,275 in Q4 2016. Of particular interest is the price category $1M - $2M which experienced a 74% increase from $25,013,844 to $43,552,436 in Closed Volume and the $2M and up price category which experienced a 386% increase in Closed Volume from $4,935,000 to $23,985,000 during the same time period. The Average Sales Price in Santa Rosa/Windsor increased 20% from $551,038 in Q4 2015 to $660,379 in Q4 2016. Of particular interest, however, is the increase in the high end. The Average Sales Price in the $2M and up category increased 62% between Q4 2015 and Q4 2016 from $2,467,500 to $3,997,500. The noticeable increase in this price category can be attributed to a healthy local buy-up market and increased second home buyers from the outside the area.
SANTA ROSA/WINDSOR VOLUME 8% 14% < 1M $1M - $2.0M $2.0M and up
79%
Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real 28% International Realty, Inc. are independent estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. < 1M 38%
$1M - $2.0M $2.0M and up
ON THE MARKET: TODD & LISA SHEPPARD
left to right from top to bottom:
6509 LAKEVILLE HIGHWAY, PETALUMA | $7,375,000 11651 GRATON ROAD, SEBASTOPOL | $3,895,000 20830 SOUTH STATE HWY 29, MIDDLETOWN | $635,000 8038 LENO DRIVE, WINDSOR | $689,000 25 HUCKLEBERRY HEIGHTS, CAZADERO | $539,000 20595 JERUSALEM GRADE | $499,000
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HEALDSBURG
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Q4 DAYS ON MARKET PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
97
147
99
128
29%
$1M - $2M
128
93
85
202
138%
$2M AND UP
109
85
160
216
35%
(2016 v 2015)
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
TOTALS
104
134
101
155
54%
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
$573,889
$552,408
$661,582
$656,130
-1%
$1M - $2M
$1,458,375
$1,331,092
$1,407,486
$1,326,583
-6%
$2M AND UP
$2,145,000
$2,771,250
$2,291,667
$4,266,667
86%
TOTALS
$884,594
$863,846
$856,035
$1,105,583
29%
LESS THAN $1M
(2016 v 2015)
$1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $2013
2014
Average List Price
2015
2016
Average Sale Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
31
35
42
27
-36%
$1M - $2M
8
7
7
12
71%
(2016 v 2015)
60 50 40 30 20
$2M AND UP
4
4
3
3
0%
43
46
52
42
-19%
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
$17,790,556
$19,334,283
$27,786,425
$17,715,500
-36%
$1M - $2M
$11,667,000
$9,317,645
$9,852,400
$15,919,000
62%
$2M AND UP
$8,580,000
$11,085,000
$6,875,000
$12,800,000
86%
TOTALS
10 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$50,000,000 $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000
TOTALS
$38,037,556
$39,736,928
$44,513,825
$46,434,500
4%
SERVING SONOMA AND NAPA | sothebyshomes.com/sonoma-real-estate
$2013
2014
2015
2016
4
SONOMA VALLEY
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Q4 DAYS ON MARKET PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
79
100
94
84
-10%
$1M - $2M
101
114
90
121
34%
$2M AND UP
211
120
176
145
-18%
Sonoma
87
104
103
98
-4%
(2016 v 2015)
110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE LESS THAN $1M
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
$524,247
$566,532
$647,304
$670,764
4%
$1,314,331 $1,348,428 $1,309,675
-3%
$1,200,000
(2016 v 2015)
$1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000
$1M - $2M
$1,305,183
$2M AND UP
$3,325,000
$2,687,778
$3,025,000
$3,358,333
11%
TOTALS
$751,813
$853,651
$1,043,002
$1,068,251
2%
$400,000 $200,000 $2013
2014
Average List Price
2015
2016
Average Sale Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
89
96
74
$1M - $2M
18
24
$2M AND UP
4 111
% CHANGE
140
(2016 v 2015)
120
64
-14%
100
18
20
11%
9
12
9
-25%
129
104
93
-11%
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
$46,657,980
$54,387,050
$47,900,510
$42,928,870
-10%
$1M - $2M
$23,493,295
$31,543,945
$24,271,700
$26,193,500
8%
$2M AND UP
$13,300,000
$24,190,000
$36,300,000
$30,224,999
-17%
TOTALS
$83,451,275
$110,120,995
$108,472,210
$99,347,369
-8%
80
TOTALS
60 40 20 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000
5
$20,000,000 $2013
2014
2015
2016
SANTA ROSA & WINDSOR
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Q4 DAYS ON MARKET PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
76
86
82
83
1%
$1M - $2M
195
97
131
220
68%
(2016 v 2015)
100 95 90 85 80
$2M AND UP
197
254
227
358
58%
TOTALS
82
88
85
96
13%
75 70 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
$445,220
$483,125
$516,559
$566,274
10%
$1M - $2M
$1,246,181
$1,219,413
$1,250,692
$1,319,771
6%
$2M AND UP
$4,279,067
$3,595,313
$2,467,500
$3,997,500
62%
TOTALS
$499,716
$552,443
$551,038
$660,379
20%
(2016 v 2015)
$700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $2013
2014
Average List Price
2015
2016
Average Sale Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
482
445
517
444
-14%
$1M - $2M
20
28
20
33
65%
3
4
2
6
200%
505
477
539
483
-10%
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
$214,595,981
$214,990,469
$267,060,823
$251,425,839
-6%
$1M - $2M
$24,923,610
$34,143,550
$25,013,844
$43,552,436
74%
$2M AND UP
$12,837,200
$14,381,250
$4,935,000
$23,985,000
386%
TOTALS
$252,356,791
$263,515,269
$297,009,667
$318,963,275
7%
$2M AND UP TOTALS
550 540 530 520 510 500 490 480 470 460 450 440
(2016 v 2015)
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $-
SERVING SONOMA AND NAPA | sothebyshomes.com/sonoma-real-estate
2013
2014
2015
2016
6
PETALUMA
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Q4 DAYS ON MARKET PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
80
76
82
73
-12%
$1M - $2M
127
247
102
101
-1%
-
-
-
-
-
82
80
84
75
-10%
$2M AND UP TOTALS
(2016 v 2015)
86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE LESS THAN $1M
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
$518,878
$575,134
$602,478
$678,546
13%
$1,235,667
$1,253,333
$1,270,754
$1,310,113
3%
-
-
-
-
-
$548,335
$592,523
$652,827
$736,844
13%
(2016 v 2015)
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000
$1M - $2M $2M AND UP
$300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $2013
TOTALS
2014
Average List Price
2015
2016
Average Sale Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
160
2013
2014
2015
2016
140
114
135
118
-13%
$1M - $2M
6
3
11
12
9%
80
$2M AND UP
-
-
-
-
-
40
146
117
146
130
-11%
-
2013
2014
2015
2016
% CHANGE
$120,000,000
$72,642,884
$65,565,223
$81,334,515
$80,068,393
-2%
$7,414,000
$3,760,000
$13,978,293
$15,721,353
12%
-
-
-
-
-
$80,056,884
$69,325,223
$95,312,808
$95,789,746
1%
LESS THAN $1M
TOTALS
(2016 v 2015)
140 120 100
60
20 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE LESS THAN $1M $1M - $2M
(2016 v 2015)
$100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000
$2M AND UP TOTALS
7
$20,000,000 $2013
2014
2015
2016
SEBASTOPOL
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Q4 DAYS ON MARKET PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
88
81
89
90
1%
$1M - $2M
179
98
164
163
0%
-
172
236
214
-9%
90
87
102
115
12%
(2016 v 2015)
140 120 100 80
$2M AND UP TOTALS
60 40 20 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
$589,504
$616,562
$642,039
$732,130
14%
$1M - $2M
$1,200,000
$1,352,308
$1,346,161
$1,444,509
7%
(2016 v 2015)
$1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000
$2M AND UP
-
$4,018,750 $2,800,000 $2,422,667
-13%
$2013
TOTALS
$607,728
$860,876
$776,365
$996,076
28%
2014
Average List Price
2015
2016
Average Sale Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
65
52
49
$1M - $2M
2
13
$2M AND UP
67
% CHANGE
68
(2016 v 2015)
66
40
-18%
64
8
14
75%
60
2
1
3
200%
56
67
58
57
-2%
52
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
$38,317,758
$32,061,206
$31,459,911
$29,285,186
-7%
$1M - $2M
$2,400,000
$17,580,000
$10,769,287
$20,223,120
88%
-
$8,037,500
$2,800,000
$7,268,000
160%
$40,717,758
$57,678,706
$45,029,198
$56,776,306
26%
TOTALS
62
58
54 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$70,000,000 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000
$2M AND UP TOTALS
$10,000,000 $-
SERVING SONOMA AND NAPA | sothebyshomes.com/sonoma-real-estate
2013
2014
2015
2016
8
ROHNERT PARK & COTATI
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Q4 DAYS ON MARKET PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
86
68
67
87
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
100 90 80
UP TO $500,000
30%
70 60
$500K - $1M
99
64
70
64
-9%
-
-
71
-
-
50 40 30
$1,000,000 AND UP
20 10
TOTALS
88
67
68
72
5%
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $500,000
$395,110
$417,879
$438,808
$439,516
0%
$500K - $1M
$602,900
$576,957
$584,182
$576,510
-1%
-
-
$1,175,000
-
-
$427,077
$461,436
$511,693
$529,771
4%
(2016 v 2015)
$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000
$1,000,000 AND UP
$200,000 $100,000 $2013
TOTALS
2014
Average List Price
2015
2016
Average Sale Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE UP TO $500,000
2013
2014
2015
2016
55
61
55
29
% CHANGE
100
(2016 v 2015)
90
-47%
70
80 60
$500K - $1M
10
23
37
56
51%
-
-
2
-
-100%
65
84
94
85
-10%
2013
2014
2015
2016
UP TO $500,000
$21,731,033
$25,490,600
$24,134,425
$12,745,957
-47%
$500K - $1M
$6,029,000
$13,270,000
$21,614,729
$32,284,550
49%
-
-
$2,350,000
-
-100%
$27,760,033
$38,760,600
$48,099,154
$45,030,507
-6%
$1,000,000 AND UP
50 40 30 20 10
TOTALS
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000
$1,000,000 AND UP TOTALS
9
$10,000,000 $2013
2014
2015
2016
RUSSIAN RIVER
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES
Q4 DAYS ON MARKET PRICE RANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
106
119
86
$1M - $2M
-
-
$2M AND UP
106
LESS THAN $1M
% CHANGE
140
(2016 v 2015)
120
96
12%
100
-
209
-
-
-
-
-
119
86
100
17%
80
TOTALS
60 40 20 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
$352,356
$399,624
$387,485
$443,730
15%
$1M - $2M
-
-
-
$1,659,368
-
$2M AND UP
-
-
-
-
-
LESS THAN $1M
(2016 v 2015)
$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
TOTALS
$352,356
$399,624
$387,485
$482,321
$2013
2014
Average List Price
24%
2015
2016
Average Sale Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
56
80
70
61
-13%
$1M - $2M
-
-
-
2
-
$2M AND UP
-
-
-
-
-
56
80
70
63
-10%
2013
2014
2015
2016
$19,731,934
$31,969,899
$27,123,974
$27,067,500
0%
$1M - $2M
-
-
-
$3,318,735
-
$2M AND UP
-
-
-
-
-
$19,731,934
$31,969,899
$27,123,974
$30,386,235
12%
LESS THAN $1M
90
(2016 v 2015)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
TOTALS
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE LESS THAN $1M
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000
TOTALS
$5,000,000 $-
SERVING SONOMA AND NAPA | sothebyshomes.com/sonoma-real-estate
2013
2014
2015
2016
10
SONOMA COAST
SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Q4 DAYS ON MARKET PRICE RANGE
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
158
155
127
101
-21%
$1M - $2M
337
238
215
193
-10%
(2016 v 2015)
180 160 140 120 100 80 60
$2M AND UP TOTALS
-
-
-
164
-
170
163
145
117
-19%
40 20 2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (SFH) PRICE RANGE LESS THAN $1M $1M - $2M
% CHANGE
2013
2014
2015
2016
$621,341
$646,470
$675,673
$694,701
3%
$1,295,000
$1,171,250
$1,433,125
$1,316,988
-8%
-
-
-
$2,400,000
-
(2016 v 2015)
$1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000
$2M AND UP TOTALS
$666,252
$693,117
$827,163
$841,701
$2013
2014
Average List Price
2%
2015
2016
Average Sale Price
Q4 CLOSED UNITS: # OF SIDES (SFH) PRICE RANGE LESS THAN $1M
2013
2014
2015
2016
42
41
32
30
% CHANGE
50
(2016 v 2015)
45
-6%
35
40 30
$1M - $2M
3
4
8
6
-25%
$2M AND UP
-
-
-
1
-
45
45
40
37
-8%
2013
2014
2015
2016
LESS THAN $1M
$26,096,331
$26,505,279
$21,621,529
$20,841,020
-4%
$1M - $2M
$3,885,000
$4,685,000
$11,465,000
$7,901,930
-31%
-
-
-
$2,400,000
-
$29,981,331
$31,190,279
$33,086,529
$31,142,950
-6%
25 20 15 10 5
TOTALS
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q4 CLOSED VOLUME (SFH) PRICE RANGE
$2M AND UP TOTALS
11
% CHANGE (2016 v 2015)
$33,500,000 $33,000,000 $32,500,000 $32,000,000 $31,500,000 $31,000,000 $30,500,000 $30,000,000 $29,500,000 $29,000,000 $28,500,000 $28,000,000 2013
2014
2015
2016
TODD & LISA SHEPPARD SIGNIFICANT SALES Q4 2016
left to right from top to bottom:
4481 SILVERADO TRAIL, CALISTOGA | $3,787,000 3828 CLEAR RIDGE COURT, SANTA ROSA | $870,000 473 FALLING STAR COURT, SANTA ROSA | $845,000 137 CAMBRIA WAY, SANTA ROSA | $763,000 3241 PIEDRA LANE, SANTA ROSA | $721,000 4780 RINCON CREEK PARKWAY, SANTA ROSA | $658,000 21612 MOSCOW ROAD, MONTE RIO | $629,000 4519 RANCHETTE ROAD, SANTA ROSA | $575,000 7144 17TH HOLE, WINDSOR | $550,000 sothebysrealty.com