New York City Market Update Third Quarter 2015 MANHATTAN BROKERAGES East Side | 38 East 61st Street | t: 212.606.7660 Downtown | 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | t: 212.431.2440
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Cover Property: 1001 PARK AVENUE | $3,295,000 | WEB: 00110372
MANHATTAN MARKET | OVERVIEW CONDOS & CO-OPS The third quarter 2015 market prices were once again propelled by a steady level of demand from the buyer population paired with fewer available units. With 3,534 closed sales this past quarter (9% fewer than prior year), the overall average sales price increased 4% over prior year to $1,736,000. In the analysis presented by three distinct price tiers – under $3M; $3M to $10M; and over $10M – the rising market price trend is evident in the two lower brackets. For all properties sold under $3M, the average sales price was up 7% and the median sales price was higher by 10% with nearly 11% fewer sales in this price segment. Prices under $3M accounted for approximately 87% of total market sales sampled this quarter. The next price tier, $3M to $10M, saw 11% more sales this quarter yearover-year, representing approximately 12% of total sales. The top price tier of units over $10M is where market price weakness is most evident given that this sector of the market has the highest inventory levels. With fewer record setting sale prices in the top 1% of the market, the average sale price for unit sold over $10M dipped 11% while the median sales price fell 16%. MANHATTAN OVERVIEW Number of Closed Sales
UNDER $3M Q3 : 15 3,066
$3M TO $10M
Q3 : 14 % Change 3,447
Q3 : 15
-11%
OVER $10M
Q3 : 14 % Change
424
380
11%
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
45
54
TOTAL % Change Q3 : 15 -16%
Q3 : 14 % Change
3,534
3,881
-9%
Average Days on Market
73
74
-1%
Listing Discount
4%
6%
-33%
Average Sales Price
$1,097,000
$1,028,000
7%
$4,914,000
$4,845,000
1%
$16,048,000
$17,935,000
-11%
$1,736,000 $1,667,000
4%
Median Sales Price
$880,000
$800,000
10%
$4,400,000 $4,300,000
2%
$13,000,000
$15,400,000
-16%
$999,000
$911,000
10%
5,303
5,334
-1%
4.4
4.2
5%
Listing Inventory Months of Supply
AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE $2,000,000 $1,800,000
The average sales price of all recorded Manhattan unit sales was $1,736,000 which is 5% lower than prior quarter but 4% greater than one year ago. The average sales price remains 8% higher than the lowest measure of the past eight quarterly periods (Q4:2013 average sales price $1,604,000). The median sales price gained 10% from prior year and at $999,000, is the highest median sales price ever posted for Manhattan overall prices.
$1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0
Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15
7000
Average Sales Price
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and INVENTORY
Median Sales Price
6000
With historically low levels of supply particularly at the low-end, the number of closed sales declined yearover-year by 9%. The 3,534 closed sales this quarter was just 2% lower than prior quarter. Persistently low inventory, except at the very top of the market, remains far below normalized supply levels of 8,000 to 9,000+/- listings. The inventory measure has been well under 6,000 units seven out of eight quarterly periods dating back to the fourth quarter of 2013.
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14
Q4:14
# of Closed Sales
Q1:15
Q2:15
Q3:15
Inventory
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
MANHATTAN MARKET | ABSORPTION RATE CONDOS & CO-OPS The overall Manhattan absorption rate stands at 4.4 months which is a rate that signifies a “seller’s market”. The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 9+/- months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6 month period. The lower price segments have been experiencing unrelenting shortages of inventory with units under $1M at 2.6 months supply and units under $2M at 4 months supply. The top two price tiers have absorption rates signifying nearly two years worth of supply at the current pace of sales and remain the tier where buyers have the most choice and less relative competition. As the top market oversupply continues and becomes exacerbated by the arrival of additional new developments, it may be unsustainable for seller’s to remain rigid in price expectations. Less than $1M $1M - $2M
$2M - $4M
$4M - $6M
$6M - $10M $10M - $20M
$20M+
TOTAL
Active Listing Inventory
1,627
1,231
1,111
493
428
261
152
5,303
Average Closed Sales / Month
620
309
181
49
37
13
6
1,215
Months of Supply per Price Category
2.6
4
6.1
10.1
11.6
20.1
25.3
4.4
NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS
ABSORPTION RATE
30
5%
3% 25
8% 31%
Less than $1M
20
$1M - 2M
9%
$2M - $4M
15
$4M - $6M $6M - $10M
10
$10M - $20M $20M+
21%
5
23%
0 Less than $1M
$1M - 2M $2M - $4M $4M - $6M Absorption
$6M $10M
$10M $20M
$20M+
Historical Equilibirum
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET & LISTING DISCOUNT Q4 : 13
Q1 : 14
Q2 : 14
Q3 : 14
Q4 : 14
Q1 : 15
Q2 : 15
Q3 : 15
Average Days on Market
88
86
83
74
85
83
84
73
Listing Discount
5%
6%
3%
6%
7%
6%
4%
4%
100
8%
90
7%
80
6%
70 60
5%
50
4%
40
3%
30
2%
20
1%
10 0
0% Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14
Average Days on Market
Q4:14
Q1:15 Listing Discount
Q2:15
Q3:15
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET The total number of days a listing is on the active market before an offer is accepted. It is calculated by totaling the total days on market for every closed sale, and dividing the total days by the total number of closed sales. LISTING DISCOUNT The percent change between the original asking (listing) price of a home, and the final sales price of the home. It is calculated by subtracting the sales price from the original listing price, and dividing the result by the original listing price.
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THE ULTRA LUXURY MARKET CO-OPS, CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES OVER $10M Over the third quarter of 2015 there were 69 ultra-luxury sales, slightly more than prior quarter but less than prior year. The average sales price in this market sector was generally steady posting a slight gain of 5% over prior year and a marginal decline over prior quarter of 3%. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $37,940,000 for a condo unit on 1st Avenue on the Upper East Side. Q4 : 13
Q1 : 14
Q2 : 14
Q3 : 14
Q4 : 14
Q1 : 15
Q2 : 15
Q3 : 15
60
62
74
75
69
75
61
69
Average Sales Price
$14,140,000
$16,638,000
$16,931,000
$17,912,000
$23,927,000
$22,138,000
$19,367,000
$18,733,000
Highest Sales Price
$33,000,000
$51,000,000
$70,000,000
$71,300,000
$100,500,000
$91,500,000
$47,800,000
$37,940,000
Number of Closed Sales
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and AVERAGE SALES PRICE $30,000,000
80 70
$25,000,000
60 $20,000,000
50 40
$15,000,000
30
$10,000,000
20 $5,000,000
10 0
$0
Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14
# of Closed Sales
Q4:14
Q1:15
Q2:15
Q3:15
Average Sales Price
SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - MANHATTAN SIGNIFICANT SALES
37 West 70th Street
22 East 81st Street
445 Lafayette Street
Last Asking: $17,950,000
Last Asking: $16,000,000
Last Asking: $14,999,000
*Due to Client confidentiality the final sales price cannot be disclosed.
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
MANHATTAN MARKET | CO-OPS & CONDOS CO-OPS Third quarter 2015 co-op prices posted a 10% gain in overall median sales price to $780,000 although the average sales price slipped 2% to end at $1,273,000. By percentages, market increases were strongest in the lower price sector where 93% of the sales transpired. The under $3M price bracket showed gains of 9% in average sales price and 11% in median sales price. For co-op in the price tier ranging from $3M to $10M, the measures showed decreases off of prior record high prices. Within the top tier co-op price bracket, over $10M, fewer record sale prices caused significant declines in the figures with 30% drops in both the average and median sales prices. UNDER $3M
CO-OPS
Q3 : 15
Number of Closed Sales
1,822
$3M TO $10M
2,099
OVER $10M
TOTAL
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
-13%
134
130
3%
9
21
-58%
1,965
2,250
-13%
Q3 : 14 % Change
Average Sales Price
$950,000 $874,000
9%
$4,555,000
$4,809,000
-5%
$14,199,000
$20,218,000
-30%
Median Sales Price
$740,000 $665,000
11%
$4,150,000
$4,500,000
-8%
$11,053,000
$15,750,000
-30%
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES
-2%
$1,273,000 $1,295,000 $780,000
10%
$ 707,000
AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE
2500
$1,600,000 $1,400,000
2000
$1,200,000 $1,000,000
1500
$800,000
1000
$600,000 $400,000
500
$200,000 $0
0 Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 # of Closed Sales
Q2:15
Q4:13
Q3:15
Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Average Sales Price
Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Median Sales Price
Q3:15
CONDOS Manhattan overall condo sales showed gains with the average sales price rising 6% to $2,340,000; the average price per square foot reaching 2% higher to $1,591; and the median sales price rising 13% to $1,500,000. Within the three distinct price tiers, the trend this quarter of higher percentages on the low end and falling percentages on the high end continued. The average sales price declined 5%; the median sales price decreased 8%; and the average price per square foot fell 18% for units over $10M. UNDER $3M
CONDOS Number of Closed Sales Average Sales Price Average PPSF
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
1,244
1,348
$1,310,000 $1,269,000
$1,392
Median Sales Price
$1,329
$1,750,000 $1,100,000
$3M TO $10M
% Change Q3 : 15 -8% 3% 5% 7%
289
Q3 : 14
Q3 : 15
250
16%
$5,069,000 $4,864,000
$2,163
OVER $10M
% Change
$2,315
$4,533,000 $4,202,000
TOTAL
Q3 : 14
% Change
Q3 : 15
36
33
10%
1,570
4%
$15,922,000
$16,745,000
-5%
-7%
$3,817
$4,642
-18%
$1,591
$1,567
2%
8%
$13,350,000
$14,500,000
-8%
$1,500,000
$1,325,000
13%
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES
Q3 : 14 % Change 1,631
$2,340,000 $2,288,000
-4% 6%
AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE
1800
$3,000,000
1600 $2,500,000
1400 1200
$2,000,000
1000
$1,500,000
800 600
$1,000,000
400
$500,000
200
$0
0 Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14
Q4:14
# of Closed Sales
Q1:15
Q2:15
Q3:15
Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
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NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN UPPER EAST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue The average co-op price of $1,544,000 was a 19% decline from prior year while the median co-op price increased 9% to $925,000. The average and median condo prices fell 14% and 12% respectively. As with co-ops in this market area, there were far less closings in the top 1% driving prices lower than prior record highs.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
551
566
-3%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$1,544,000
$1,906,000
-19%
Median Sales Price
$925,000
$850,000
9%
# Closed Sales
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
204
255
-20%
Average Sales Price
$2,624,000
$3,054,000
-14%
Median Sales Price
$1,425,00
$1,625,000
-12%
UPPER WEST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, Central Park West to Riverside Drive The total number of co-op sales on the Upper West Side was 364, a decrease of 19% from prior year. Co-ops in this market area posted an average sale price of $1,400,000, a marginally lower price than prior year. The average condo sales price was $2,329,000, representing an 11% drop from prior year. However, the median condo sales price was largely unchanged and ended the quarter at $1,565,000.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
364
447
-19%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$1,400,000
$1,428,000
-2%
Median Sales Price
$865,000
$860,000
1%
# Closed Sales
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
295
281
5%
Average Sales Price
$2,329,000
$2,612,000
-11%
Median Sales Price
$1,565,000
$1,558,000
0%
MIDTOWN north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street The average co-op sales price in this market area increased 9% to $935,000 while the median co-op sales price rose to $660,000, a strong 10% increase over prior year. The average and median condo sales prices also posted gains with an 8% increase and 22% increase, respectively. The number of condo closings increased 14% as new development projects continued to meet adequate demand and absorption of available units.
CO-OPS
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
323
370
-13%
Average Sales Price
$935,000
$859,000
9%
Median Sales Price
$660,000
$600,000
10%
# Closed Sales
CONDOS
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
341
300
14%
Average Sales Price
$2,140,000
$1,976,000
8%
Median Sales Price
$1,400,000
$1,150,000
22%
# Closed Sales
UPTOWN north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side The average sales price of co-op sales was higher by 19%, reaching $541,000. The median sales price increase was just as impressive with a 25% rise to $500,000. Market measures were also higher in the condo sector with double digits gains. The average condo sales price reached $762,000, 14% higher than prior year. The median condo price elevated to $622,000, a 13% increase from prior year.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
147
199
-26%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$541,000
$455,000
19%
Median Sales Price
$500,000
$399,000
25%
# Closed Sales
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
144
150
-4%
Average Sales Price
$762,000
$666,000
14%
Median Sales Price
$622,000
$550,000
13%
NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN DOWNTOWN south of 34th Street through Tribeca The 567 co-op sales in the third quarter of 2015 was a decline of 14% as compared to prior year. However co-op price measures were much higher with a 17% gain in the average sales price and an 8% gain in the median sale price. Huge gains were evident in condo price measures with a 37% increase in the average price of a condo; and a 46% increase in the median condo sale price. There were far more ultra-luxury condo units sold in the current quarter than the third quarter of 2014, resulting in these large gains.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
567
657
-14%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$1,253,000
$1,072,000
17%
Median Sales Price
$785,000
$730,000
8%
# Closed Sales
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
388
492
-21%
Average Sales Price
$3,403,000
$2,493,000
37%
Median Sales Price
$2,200,000
$1,510,000
46%
FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BATTERY PARK CITY There were 198 condo units closed in the third quarter of 2015, a 29% improvement over prior year. This market area also had substantially higher average and median sale prices year-over-year. The average sales price of $1,511,000 was a 30% increase while the median sales price ascended 25% to $1,235,000.
CO-OPS
CONDOS
2Q : 15
2Q : 14
% Change
12
11
10%
# Closed Sales
Average Sales Price
$1,265,000
$714,000
77%
Median Sales Price
$1,225,000
$589,000
108%
# Closed Sales
Q3 : 15
Q3 : 14
% Change
198
153
29%
Average Sales Price
$1,511,000
$1,161,000
30%
Median Sales Price
$1,235,000
$990,000
25%
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES 1400
1400 1400
1400$3,000,000 1400
1200
1200 1200
1200 1200 $2,500,000
1000
1000 1000
1000 1000 $2,000,000
800
800 800
600 400 200 0
600 400 200 0
Q3:13
600
800 $1,500,000 600
400
$1,000,000 400
200
200
0
0
$500,000 $0
Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:13Q3:13 Q1:14Q4:13 Q2:14Q1:14 Q3:14Q2:14 Q4:14Q3:14 Q1:15Q4:14 Q2:15Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:13
Upper East Side Upper EastMidtown Side Upper East Side Midtown Downtown Midtown Downtown Downtown
800 600 400 200 0
Q4:13Q3:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q2:15 Q4:13 Q1:14Q4:13 Q2:14Q1:14 Q3:14Q2:14 Q4:14Q3:14 Q1:15Q4:14 Q2:15Q1:15
Upper West Side Upper East Side Upper East Side Upper East Side Upper West SideUpper West Side Uptown Midtown Midtown Midtown Uptown Financial Uptown District / Battery Park City Downtown Downtown Financial DistrictFinancial / BatteryDistrict Park City / Battery Park City Downtown
UpperWest WestSide Side Upper Upper West Side Uptown Uptown Uptown Financial Financial / /Battery Park / Battery Park City FinancialDistrict District BatteryDistrict ParkCity City
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MARKET COMPARISONS Comparing the third quarter of 2014 and the third quarter of 2015, all three markets showed an increase in price per sq. ft. with San Francisco seeing the largest increase at 11%, Los Angeles at 6% and New York City at 2%. However, comparing this quarter and last quarter, both San Francisco and New York City price per sq. ft. decreased 4% and 2% respectively while Los Angeles continued its gain by 4%.
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. | CONDOS ONLY $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Q4:13
Q1:14
Q2:14
Q3:14
New York City
Q4:14 San Francisco
Q1:15
Q2:15
Q3:15
Los Angeles
SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - ON THE MARKET, AROUND THE WORLD
PARIS, FRANCE | $9,382,330
PUHKET, THAILAND | $16,000,000
WEB: 3MBWXL
WEB: JXVQ23
WEB: 6MCHP8
Paris Ouest Sotheby’s International Realty
Hunter Sotheby’s International Realty
Summit Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages
PARK CITY, UTAH | $15,995,000
FEATURED LISTINGS
LIMESTONE MANSION | $50,000,000
FIFTH AVENUE STYLE | $10,000,000
196 SIXTH AVENUE, 1F | $2,250,000
9 BR / 5.4 BA | WEB: 00110315
3 BR / 4 BA | WEB: 00110043
2 BR / 2 BA | WEB: 0138062
Stan Ponte | 212.606.4109
Nikki Field | 212.606.7669
Jeremy V. Stein | 212.431.2427 Jennifer Lanza | 212.810.4960
684 PARK AVENUE | $34,000,000
510 PARK AVENUE | $12,800,000
230 CENTRAL PARK SOUTH | $11,900,000
20 ROOMS | WEB: 00110358
3 BR / 5.5 BA | WEB: 0019871
2 BR / 4 BA | WEB: 00110291
Serena Boardman | 212.606.7611
J. Roger Erickson | 212.606.7612
Pauline Evans | 212.400.8740 Pamela O’ Connor | 212.606.7709 Rebecca Cavallaro | 212.606.7641
1 JOHN STREET, PHA | $7,011,474
25 NORTH MOORE, 2A | $6,000,000
874 BROADWAY| $2,200,000
BROOKLYN | 4 BR / 4 BA | WEB: 0137850
2 BR / 2.5 BA | WEB: 0138018
1 BR / 1 BA | WEB: 0138024
Karen Heyman | 212.810.4990
Joshua Judge | 212.431.2476
Jonathan Hettinger | 212.810.4953
Alan Heyman | 212.810.4991
Philip McCarthy | 212.810.4954 Michael Quinn | 212.431.2475
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END NOTES A MESSAGE FROM OUR MANAGERS: Traditional third quarter stats reflect properties which have gone under contract in the spring and early summer. According to the Vanderbilt Appraisal Report, the third quarter of 2015 saw a drop in both the number of showings and properties being offered for sale compared to the third quarter of 2014. The number of buyers in the $3M and below range increased due to interest rates remaining low, prompting buyers to act now. On the selling front, when the property is priced to the market, sellers of studios, one and two bedrooms are receiving multiple offers. In the higher price points over $3M, a significant amount of new development properties are hitting the market and vying for the same buyers as the resale listings across New York City. Buyers and sellers in the luxury and ultra-luxury markets find themselves conflicted, as sellers are reluctant to adjust pricing to match the competition and buyers are seeking to negotiate hard to make a deal. We look forward to an active fall 2015 market.
EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE
Ellie Johnson Senior Vice President, Brokerage Manager
Diane Levine Senior Vice President, Brokerage Manager
t: 1.212.606.7660 38 East 61st Street | New York, New York 10065
t: 1.212.431.2440 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, New York 10010
WALKER TOWER, 212 WEST 18TH STREET | $70,000,000 | WEB: 0137804
© MMXV Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.
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