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December- January 2012
2012 REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECAST
MARKET INSIDERS HAVE THEIR SAY INSIDE FANNIE MAE WITH DOUGLAS DUNCAN • FORGET AFFORDABILITY $4.95 Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
Below are a few recent examples of trust deeds available through The Norris Group. Location: Fontana, CA Appraised Value: $170,000 Loan Amount: $102,000 Loan to Value: 60% Payment to Investor: $765 per month
California Trust Deed Investing Not everyone has the time or the expertise necessary to be a full-time real estate investor. But there’s still a way to take advantage of the unbelievable opportunity at hand. Welcome to the world of trust deed investing.
Location: Desert Hot Springs, CA Appraised Value: $86,000 Loan Amount: $50,000 Loan to Value: 58.13% Payment to Investor: $375 per month
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Location: Hesperia, CA Appraised Value: $92,000 Loan Amount: $55,000 Loan to Value: 59.78% Payment to Investor: $412 per month
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Location: Victorville, CA Appraised Value: $75,000 Loan Amount: $45,000 Loan to Value: 60% Payment to Investor: $562 per month
Call 951-780 -5856 or visit our web site today for your Free Book and DVD.
To receive property information sheets of available trust deeds and a copy of our free book and DVD on trust deed investing, call our office at 951-780-5856. Savings accounts, CDs, and stocks have offered dismal returns over the past several years. The Norris Group’s trust deed investments earn 9% return backed E\ GLVFRXQWHG FDVK à RZLQJ &DOLIRUQLD real estate.
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California D epar tment of Real Es tate, Real Es tate Broker Bruce Norris Financial Group Inc . DBA T he Norris Group DRE License 01219911 10/16/2010 10:52:31 AM
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SOUND OPINION—WISE DECISIONS: VOICE OF THE PROFITABLE REAL ESTATE INVESTOR
TABLE OF CONTENTS Analysis
Features
6
In Intimate Detail: U.S. Housing Market REI Voice publisher Geraldine Barry interviews Douglas G. Duncan, Ph.D., Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae, about the state of the market and the current pounding Fannie and Freddie are taking from the politicos.
Adv ice
8
Market Insiders Have Their Say We asked several market insiders to give their thoughts about the state of the real estate market in 2012. Surprise--they don’t agree!
10
Investing in 2012: One Property at a Time Our entire industry is under attack, says Bruce Norris, President of The Norris Group. From investors, to retail agents, to appraisers, he’s received an earful about challenges facing the industry. Mr. Norris responds with characteristic thoughtfulness and sound advice.
14
2012 Real Estate Shaky for Everyone Except Smart Investors Lori Greymont, CEO of Summit Assets Group, is bearish on the market, unless you’re talking about opportunities for real estate investors.
18
SJREI Member of the Year
B asics
Like many real estate investors, this SJREI member enjoyed the success of a rising market only to hit rock bottom when the market crashed. However, unlike most investors, he is willing to admit that he lost money in real estate and readily shares how he made his way back from the brink of bankruptcy.
Planning Your Business for Your Best New Year
19
15
Do you plan your business, or does your business plan you? Veteran businessman and real estate investor Tom Wilson shows how to construct a business plan to keep you focused in the right direction.
16
Forget Affordability, Consider Capita per Inventory Scott Sambucci, COO of Altos Research, does more than collect the numbers. He’s developed predictive models and says that everything you’ve been taught about housing affordability is wrong.
Blog World Expo 2011 Aaron Norris got plussed at BlogWorld & New Media Expo--the first and only industrywide conference, tradeshow and media event dedicated to blogging, podcasting, and social media. Don’t know what that means? Get with 2012 and read the article!
22 Ger’s Top 5 I n vestor Resources
21
The best of the best. Phone/ email/web contacts.
Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
P U B L I S H E R ’ S NOTE
REI Voice™ Magazine A publication of SJREI Association™
WELCOME
Publisher Geraldine Barry | 408-264-3198 Geraldine@SJREI.org
Welcome to the final edition of REI Voice for 2011! I am very excited about this content rich issue - it has been so much fun putting it together, and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did.
Geraldine Barry Publisher, President of SJREI Association
For this issue, I had the distinct honor of interviewing Douglas G. Duncan, Ph.D., Chief Economist for Fannie Mae. I came away with such deep respect for him, his incredibly bright perspective, and savvy take on the U.S. economy and people. It was such a pleasure to interview a Washington insider and to understand more fully the delicate dance that is required to navigate that world. We have had the pleasure of hosting Doug as our keynote, at our sister company SJREI Association, and we are working on getting him on the calendar for 2012. Stay tuned for details on that special event and in the meantime enjoy my interview with Doug Duncan. Our regular columnist Aaron Norris keeps us abreast of what we need to do to stay ahead of the curve in terms of social media, and right now Google+ is where to focus your energy as a professional - read his article to understand why. Scott Sambucci of Altos Research shares his perspective on affordability in terms of “Capita per Inventory”...this is an interesting and thought-provoking article. We had several people contribute their thoughts are on the real estate market and what to anticipate in 2012 --read this insightful piece and join the conversation by following the Facebook or Google+ links at www.REIVoice.com. I, and the entire staff of REI Voice Magazine, wish each and every one of our readers the very best for 2012. May it be your best year yet and bring you many blessings.
Geraldine Barry Publisher P.S. As an avid reader, I would like to share my top ten books for you to consider reading in 2012. I tend to fall in love with books that I enjoy. So much so, that I am oftentimes sad when I finish a good book. Case-in-point: Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson. This is a wonderful read. It confirms the industriousness and resiliency of Silicon Valley culture, and the creativity and distinctiveness of Steve Jobs, the man. I spent Thanksgiving in Ireland with my family. They are all avid users of iPods and iPhones . These devices are as prevalent across the Atlantic as they are here. Steve Jobs did indeed change the world.
REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
Ger’s Reading List 1. Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson
2. The Success Principals by Jack Canfield
3. The Buy & Hold Real Estate Strategy by David Schumacher
Editor-in-Chief Susan Hare | 408-391-8068 Susan@REIVoice.com Advertising Sales Meghan Ben | 408-264-3198 Meghan@REIVoice.com Art Director Kevin Bell kbell@Western-Web.net Director, Administration Meghan Ben | 408-264-3198 Meghan@SJREI.org Printer Western Web Western-Web.net
4. Think & Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill
5. Click: The Magic of Instant Connections by Rom Brafman
6. Developing the Leader Within You by John Maxwell 7. The Four Agreements: A Toltec Wisdom Book (A Practical Guide to Personal Freedom) by Miguel Ruiz
SJREI Association is a member of NREIA®
REI Voice™ is a publication of SJREI Association™ www.SJREI.org
Reproduction or use of any editorial or graphic is prohibited. To request reprints or reprint rights, contact Info@REIVoice.com.
8. Millionaire Real Estate Investor by Gary Keller
9. Your Kids Are Your Own Fault: A Guide For Raising Responsible, Productive Adults by Larry Winget 10. Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die by Chip Heath and Dan Heath
REI Voice Magazine c/o SJREI Association 4309 Sayoko Circle San Jose, CA 95136 www.REIVoice.com Copyright © 2011 SJREI Association. All rights reserved.
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Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
A N A LYS I S
In Intimate Detail: U.S. Housing Market
An Interview with Douglas G. Duncan, Ph.D., Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae by Geraldine Barry
Douglas G. Duncan
REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
Ger: At a recent debate, all the Republican candidates felt the only thing that would help housing was fixing the economy. Do you think improving the economy and lowering unemployment will do much to change the fact that 25% of homeowners with a mortgage are upside down?
Doug: If we get an improving economy and growing employment (both big “if’s” at this point) it will help. Job growth begets income growth which begets household formation which begets housing demand both owned and rental which will put upward pressure on prices which will reduce the number of households underwater IN THOSE AREAS WITH JOB GROWTH. Ger: Is it possible that having such a large percentage of homeowners over burdened by mortgage debt is part of the problem with the economy? And if so won’t we need to fix housing in order to fix the economy?
Doug: Fixing the economy and fixing housing are closely correlated and somewhat causal. Housing supports a host of supply industries so it has a bigger impact than a lot of other sectors. However, small business has to see future sales and profit growth potential before they start hiring. At present that is being forestalled by recession-level consumer pessimism and related business pessimism about the direction of the economy. Until there is a reduction in expected future taxes and regulatory burden, don’t expect strong growth. Ger: How has the performance of Fannie and Freddie’s mortgage debt compared to those of privately securitized loans? And in terms of vintages where did the problems occur first... in Fannie and Freddie debt, or private securitized debt?
Doug: Investors treat GSE debt as though it has the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. With current Federal Reserve purchase activity levels, they are rational to do so. This applies particularly to short term funding. Longer term funding is effected by perceptions of what will ultimately be done with the two entities from a policy perspective. The mortgage market problems appeared first in private label
securities, one reason the private securitization market has yet to re-emerge. Fannie and Freddie did not cause the crisis...it had a number of parents. They did contribute to the magnitude of the crisis. Ger: If we do at some point come to the conclusion that we have to deal with negative equity, what do you think would be the best way to do it, with the fewest unintended consequences?
Doug: It is not perfectly clear what the net impact of a principal writedown would be. Clearly loans modified to reduce monthly payments perform better in proportion to the degree of the payment reduction. Therefore, reduction of principal component of the monthly payment would contribute. However, the saving to the borrower is a loss to the investor. Whether the probability of default and cost of that default is offset by a reduction in those two items is the question. It is not clear that the net social measurement is positive. Ger: How do you see the relationship between the general U.S. economy and international markets, particularly problems in Europe (primarily Greece and Italy) impacting the U.S. Is the U.S. on a similar track to Greece, or is our size and our resilience as a nation something that will help us out of this dilemma?
Doug: The U.S. is clearly on a fiscal path that could lead to a Greek type problem in the long run. The public grasps this which is part of the reason for the current ferment in the body politic. If we make the politically difficult decisions rapidly we can rapidly return to a growth path taking us into a strong economic future. The appropriate actions are not hard to understand. The U.S. economy will be affected by Europe’s problems through trade relationships and financial market connections. Bad things in European economic sectors have downside effects in the U.S. Ger: What are your thoughts on China? Should we be concerned that they will become a more dominant force economically particularly as they hold a lot of our debt?
Doug: China has potential as a long term trading partner and has many
more difficult problems than we do, so I don’t fear them. They are a communist country with a growing middle class that may well increase pressure for more political freedom. As a result of the one child policy, they also have a rapidly aging population with no social safety net and a shrinking relative workforce to support the older population. Also they have reached close to the end of their ability to invest and must shift to consumption which means wage increases which will reduce their competitive advantage in labor costs and shift some advantage back to the U.S. (if we install growth oriented policies). They can’t sell off their U.S. debt without potentially adversely effecting their own income statement, so I don’t fear rapid liquidation of their U.S. holdings. Ger: Is this current negative economic situation beneficial in any way - what lesson has been learned from this economy?
Doug: It would never be a good thing to have 9 percent unemployment from either a human or resource utilization perspective. It is not clear that we have seen the kind of response in policy would that would indicate lessons learned. The most important lesson is that leverage has both benefits and costs. We had far greater leverage in our economy than was healthy and the downside has been painful. The evidence that there is serious attention to leverage reduction is hard to come by. In fact, we have codified in law the existence of institutions which are too big to fail and the first test of the regulatory apparatus that was to oversee them led to a regulatory failure (MF Global’s bankruptcy). We undertook massive government spending ostensibly to spur economic growth and it failed. Many policymakers are still in denial of that fact. Prosperity is a hardwon result of nurturing a stable private sector with growth prospects and that lesson will hopefully be relearned and implemented. Ger: What positive signs to you see in terms of the U.S. and growth down the road?
Doug: The public has gotten the attention of the government and is in
ferment over the country’s debt, both current and future. If the public can overwhelm the special interests (some of which are themselves) and get control of the entitlements, this is still the biggest economy in the world by a factor of 4 and the best entrepreneurial talent in the world so the prospects for the future are undiminished. Unbridled entitlement growth and the belief that the government creates wealth are the legacy of Europe which the public is watching melt before their eyes. I believe that is why 77% of the people in our survey say the economy is heading in the wrong direction. Ger: What do you like most about your job as Chief Economist for Fannie Mae? It is probably a very stressful position.
Doug: I have a great staff and enjoy coming to work with them every day. I like real estate. Everyone lives in some sort of building, and most work in some sort of building, and the buildings sit on land and always will. Almost all real estate is financed at some time. That means I am a part of everyone’s life every day and that is energizing. I love going out and speaking with the public; particularly the question and answer portion. Americans are great people and the most generous in the world. Ger: Your favorite things to do to destress?
Doug: I love to read (history and biography) and listen to music (jazz and blues) although time for those is precious to come by. I also love to work outside physically having grown up on a farm and working in an office. I have been known to take a glass of pinot noir from time to time. Ger: What are your 2 or 3 most favorite sources for business news?
Doug: Wall Street Journal, Sunday New York Times, Forbes Magazine, various other print media including the web. No television. Ger: The best business or economy book you have read this year?
Doug: Rivers of Gold: The Rise of the Spanish Empire, from Columbus to Magellan by Hugh Thomas. I also read P.J. O’Rourke’s book on Adam Smith, On The Wealth of Nations. The Bible also has a lot of good advice on business conduct.
Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
A DV I C E
Market Insiders have Their Say “What should an investor do in 2012? Play it safe, but don’t hesitate to participate. My preference is to deal in a price range that allows me multiple options should a property not sell. I would stay away from the high-end properties, as financing will be more difficult to obtain and appraisals in that range will soon — and for the first time — have to take into account comps from foreclosures and short sales.”
Bruce Norris, President, The Norris Group
“As I look towards 2012, I can tell you that Sacramento will again become a ‘Cow Town,’ but this time I’m referring to a ‘Cash Cow.’ The rental market in Sacramento is great, and in 2012 the opportunity will continue to be ripe for investors to pick up great cash flow properties at bargain prices. Housing prices seem to be stabilizing. Combine that with the lowest interest rates I’ve ever seen and the cash flow is plentiful in California’s Capitol region.”
Tim Manke, Broker, TM Real Estate
“Could the housing market be in the progress of making a bottom? ...I’m still in the bearish camp and continue to believe there are significant downside risks in the market. While foreclosure filings dropped 31% » Full Servicein Real forthe thebad Investor well they as home theEstate last 12Broker months, news as is that haveowner risen 7% in each of the last two months - and are now sitting at a seven-month high. Thus, it appears that foreclosure activity is picking up again - which in due » Residential and Commercial course will actMoney as a negative » Conventional and Private Loans pull on prices when these distressed properties hit the re-sale market.” » Business Broker Services
Robert Campbell, The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter
“Low-end properties, the kind that make good rentals and that are easier to flip, are currently Stuart Baeriswyl going like hotcakes across the Bay Area. They are likely to keep selling that way too.” REAL ESTATE BROKER DRE#: 01807909
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“Memphis and the Mid-South are poised for a fantastic investment environment in 2012. While Memphis, like country, unemployment, the number of job openings P H O N E : 4much 0 8 . 3of7 the 3 . 676 6 will E Mcontinue A I L : s tto u astruggle r t @ C Swith R t eabove a m . cnormal om continues to rise and will only grow in 2012 as both Electrolux and Mitsubishi begin building facilities in Memphis, and Kruger paper company doubles its current workload. Nucor Steel and the Great Milwaukee Brewing Company continue to expand. With local government, business and civic leaders working so hard to position Memphis as a 1st Choice city, 2012 is positioned to be a very healthy and vibrant year for real estate investors.”
Chris Clothier, Vice President, MemphisInvest.com
“This is the best time I can remember for buying an investment property. It is the perfect blend of low prices and low interest rates. You can buy homes for 1996 prices with 2011 rents. That spells serious cash flow. The dummy way to financial freedom is letting your tenants pay off your houses and have free and clear houses. Don’t buy expecting appreciation- unless it’s forced appreciation created by improving the property. Buy for cash flow. It will take a long time for prices to recover. However the housing market will improve quicker if the banks would be more accommodating. I encourage people to look beyond the negative press and to see that opportunities abound. It’s always wise to buy when others are selling- just as you should have been selling (in 2006) when everyone else was buying.”
Phyllis Rockower
REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
Congratulations to the Norris group for another wonderful event ...and thank you to the large contingent from SJREI for joining us! Find more photos at SJREI.org/I_Survived_2011
Chris Clothier, Michelle Clothier, Caroline Hegarty, Tim Manke, Janet Thrasher, Geraldine Barry, Larry Panka, Lisa Moren Bromma, Martha Speed, Eddie Speed.
Seated: Lamarr Baxter, Annika Lewis, Natalie Knowlton, Shauna Pinneo, Greg Pinneo, Meghan Ben. Standing: Jeff Hare, Susan Hare, Belle Li, Geraldine Barry Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
adv ice
Investing in 2012: One Property at a Time by
Bruce Norris, founder of The Norris Group, is an active investor, hard money lender, and real estate educator with over 29 years experience. Mr. Norris has been involved in over 2,000 real estate transactions as a buyer, seller, builder and money partner.
Bruce Norris
Looking back at 2011, there were a few surprises. The real estate industry learned what robo-signing meant and what a company named MERS does. The combination of the robo-signing scandal and the confusion about the validity of lenders’ paperwork stalled the foreclosure process to a crawl. In California, the foreclosure process is supposed to be among the fastest and easiest to process. Someone fails to make a payment, the lender records a notice of default and three months plus twenty-one days later the trustee sale is held. Smooth and simple. In 2011, that process has been extended just a tad — to around six hundred days. The lenders, instead of foreclosing, had their attention diverted to cleaning up their internal foreclosure processes. What that did was buy time for the delinquent owner and skew what should have occurred in 2011. Somehow, our Southern California investors managed to buy hundreds of wholesale deals despite the scarcity of inventory. The deals they found were probably 75% lenderowned, 20% short-sale and the remaining 5% split between trustee sale refinances and buying directly from private owners. At the recent I Survived Real Estate event, one of the things that became obvious is that our entire industry is under attack. Compounding that stress is our
10 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
worry about the industry’s future. Investors are concerned about the lack of financing for rental properties and we are having a difficult time getting a property appraised fairly after we do the needed repairs. The retail agents represented by the National Association of Realtors are concerned about the restriction of inventory. What is the best plan of action for them to make a living? Should they concentrate on REOs or short sales? The appraisal industry wants to return to being paid a full fee for their work and the mortgage industry wants a little loosening of the lending policies which threaten nearly every escrow prior to finally getting a “yes” answer. What should an investor do
in 2012? Play it safe, but don’t hesitate to participate. My preference is to deal in a price range that allows me multiple options should a property not sell. I would stay away from the highend properties, as financing will be more difficult to obtain and appraisals in that range will soon — and for the first time — have to take into account comps from foreclosures and short sales. A 2012 investor may decide this is the year to increase or create a pool of rentals. If you are just beginning, start slowly and resolve one property at a time before committing to multiple properties at once. Buy in safe and desirable areas with good school districts. My preference is to repair the
properties to a higher standard than expected. The prospective renter will be very pleased, so you’ll get a lot of interested people simultaneously. That should allow you to get top dollar and you’ll find tenants that stay longer and treat the property better. If you are buying and immediately reselling, the margins are pretty tight. Make sure you know your area and are laser-sharp in the two most important skills: appraising the property correctly and estimating the repairs accurately. You’ll still find most of the deals come straight out of the MLS. Contact Bruce Norris at 951-780-5856 or info@TheNorrisGroup.com
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Insurance
Presenter lineup is subject to change.
12 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
LEARN
• The top 10 types of investments and how to determine which is right for you • How to find money to do your deal • How to research and find investment properties
• The critical factors to evaluating a deal • The essential members of your support team and their functions
• The pros and cons of different legal entities: LLCs, Corporations, and Partnerships • When to call on a tax specialist and tax implications of the various investing strategies
• Managing your assets for cash flow and long term gain
• Exit strategies for when you need cash for new investments or to fund a long deserved vacation
“The JumpStart program was fabulous! The day was packed with foundational, and extremely helpful, information on investing. The instructors were both knowledgeable and generous with their time- all of them have been investing for a while. I walked away feeling more confident because of their personal stories (failures and successes with investing), having the opportunity to network with other investors, and the many tools they provided for us. Thank you SJREI.”
—Victoria Moos, JumpStart Participant
Before You Leap Into Investing, JumpStart Your Education! Saturday, January 28 Cupertino Inn $210 Members of SJREI Association
$6 Com 6 b Savi ined ngs!
$429 Admission, plus 1-year Membership in SJREI and all the member benefits
$230 Non-Member Early Bird Registration $250 Regular Admission Register at SJREI.org For more information, call 408-264-3198
CA L E NDAR REGISTER ONLINE for our award-winning events: SJREI.ORG
Sign Up for our email list for the most up to date event news January »»
1/4 East Bay Meeting , Hyatt in Dublin
»»
1/5 South Bay Meeting, Wyndham Hotel in San Jose
»»
1 / 17 Mid-Peninsula Meeting, Crowne Plaza in Foster City
»»
1/28 JumpStart Program, Cupertino Inn
F ebruary »»
2/ 1 East Bay Meeting , Hyatt in Dublin
»»
2/ 2 South Bay Meeting, Wyndham Hotel in San Jose
»»
2/ 21 Mid-Peninsula Meeting, Crowne Plaza in Foster City
»»
2/29 East Bay Meeting , Hyatt in Dublin
M arch »»
3/1 South Bay Meeting, Wyndham Hotel in San Jose
»»
3/20 Mid-Peninsula Meeting, Crowne Plaza in Foster City
For More Information or to Register for Any of these Events, Visit: www.SJREI.org Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
13
A DV I C E
2012 Real Estate Shaky for Everyone Except Smart Investors by Lori Greymont
Lori Greymont is CEO of Summit Assets Group. She offers educational presentations around the U.S., trains and mentors people new to purchasing distressed assets and coaches on creative financing techniques. Her company sells single Turnkey Cash Flow Investment properties, Fix and Flip properties, and Bulk lists.
What does the future hold for real estate? There are some facts that can help us to predict what might happen. According to RealtyTrac, there are an estimated 1 million foreclosure related notices for defaults, auctions and home repossessions that should have been filed this year that have been pushed out to 2012. There is an election coming up, so we can predict that since foreclosure is not socially acceptable, politics will continue to push this problem down the road. Banks are still not lending to owner occupants or to investors. Few new homes are being built due to the fact that existing homes are selling for less than they cost to build and due to the lack of funding. Many cities are now moving to demolish troubled vacant homes. So, while it may appear there are many vacant homes, a shortage is being created. While the media tells us that jobs are being created, they are not being created fast enough to create a robust recovery. Truth be told, until the banks start lending in all arenas (personal credit, business credit, and home mortgages) significant and sustainable recovery will be delayed. My prediction is we won’t see much change until 2014-2015. The good news for real estate investors is that people losing their homes in foreclosure still need and want someplace to live. And they can afford to pay rent. While the media may want us to believe that foreclosures are happening because people are not able to afford house payments (due to subprime adjusting rate, loss of jobs, etc.) the truth
14 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
is that many people are making the decision to walk away because they are “underwater.” This fact was reported by the Federal Reserve in their study in May of 2010. Because of uncertainty and fear, many real estate investors are sitting on the sideline waiting to see the end of the decline and then plan to jump in when the market recovers. I personally think this is dangerous. The only way you know a market has hit bottom is when values start to increase. This strategy means that you are buying as prices are going up. If the upswing is short-lived, you lose equity. If you wait too long, you lose out on bargain prices. However, if you change your mind set from equity-gain to cash-flow, price remains important, but not as im-
portant as getting a good property that stays rented for the highest rent possible. You can buy for cash flow by working with specialists in turnkey properties or do everything yourself. Turnkey purveyors know how to find quality properties in key neighbors that when properly rehabbed create desirable rentals. There is a science and art to this. You can do this too if you have the time, education and skill to pull all the key players together. Before you buy any property for cash flow, pick a geographic market that has a strong economic base. Yes, there are still areas of the country with a stable or growing job-base. Another key component is to buy in a market that has pro-landlord laws. Don’t
underestimate the cost of time some areas require to evict delinquent tenants. At a minimum, buy properties that will return 1-2% of monthly rent to purchase price. For example, pay no more than $80,000 for a property that achieves $800/month in rent. Of course, consider the current value of the home and pay less if it is worth less. Whether you buy turnkey properties or purchase, rehab, and rent properties on your own, make a plan to execute and take action. Without action, your goal could quickly become a missed opportunity. Contact Lori Greymont at 888-298-0652 or lori@summitassetsgroup.com
B AS I C S
Planning Your Business for Your Best New Year by Tom Wilson
Tom Wilson is a thirty five year real estate veteran who has executed over $100M and 1,700 units of real estate investments. After thirty years of managing some of Silicon Valley’s pioneering technology companies, Mr. Wilson put his business and management experience toward fulltime investing. One of his companies, Wilson Investment Properties, offers high quality, highcash flow, fully rehabbed and leased properties to other investors.
Do you plan your business, or does your business plan you? Day to day tasks can push you further and further away from achieving your goals without a solid business plan to keep you focused in the right direction. A business plan’s value is primarily in the process of creating it — in the thought processes it takes to really understand your business and where it needs to go — not in the end plan. A written plan doesn’t have to be long to have value. Let’s step through the elements that will result in a thorough plan to get your business off to the right start or move your current business to greater success. The Big Picture: Mission and Vision Statements. State your product or service, market, size, location and business approach. What will your company look like in three years? This is your elevator pitch to state what and who you are. Products and Services. Define your product or service in detail. What are the features and benefits that will make it unique from your competition? What are your price targets? How much volume and growth are you planning? Market Analysis. What are the characteristics of your market sector? What is your specific target market and demographics? Who are your competitors and what are the pros and cons of their products and business? Marketing. Describe how you will brand and advertise your business. What will be your marketing and sales channels? What incentives will you give to your customers and partners? Clearly define your business model monetization. Strategy. State what the strengths and weaknesses are of your products and/or services and of your company. Describe the business opportunity that you will capitalize on and your market positioning. Define your biggest threats and how you will defend against them. What and when will be your business exit options? Operations. Give the details for your organization structure: legal entity, key personnel, partners, equipment and facilities. Tell how you will manage the production and processing of the business. Write down a timeline with the human and material resources needed to execute your start up and growth. Financials. State your precise sales, profit and cash flow objectives over time. Define your financing and capital requirements and what your metrics will be, that is, your accounting methods and tools, and your measurements of performance. And lastly, create financial scenarios for the best case and worst case, as well as target plan. Now is the time to prepare for variations from the goal, not when you are emotionally in the hot seat.
TOM’S TOP TEN TIPS 1. Write your business plan for a lay person, not a specialist in your industry. Keep it simple. Never outsource your business plan. 2. Create a Board of Directors. It doesn’t have to be formal. Utilize mentors, peers, and friends. 3. Secure employees, partners, and resources with direct experience in your area of business, even if they have had failures. 4. Use focus groups to test ideas (get some friends together for a focus party). 5.More businesses fail for negative cash flow than for lack of profit. Manage cash flow and capital very carefully. 6. Most financial goals take twice as long and twice as much capital as forecasted. Plan for the potential. 7. Passion, persistence and hard work = over half of success. 8. Be Persistent: Many successful companies took a long time to get financing and partners to believe in them. 9. Talk to Your Competition! You’d be amazed at what ego will prompt your competitors to tell you. Start off with a compliment and share something about your business. Sharing information is usually a win-win situation. 10. Keep honing your business. You don’t have to do it all —network, use mastermind groups, and delegate. Contact Tom Wilson at 408-867-1867 or tomkwilson@earthlink.net
Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
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F E AT U R E
Forget Affordability, Consider Capita per Inventory by Scott Sambucci
Scott Sambucci is the Chief Operating Officer with Altos Research. He works daily with capital markets and fixed income clients to develop predictive models and applications using real-time housing market analytics and leading indicators. He’s written numerous white papers on the topics of residential housing valuation and market trends. He also serves as an adjunct professor in the areas of Finance, Economics, and International Business.
What if everything you thought about housing affordability was wrong? Traditional housing affordability indices by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the U.S. Census, and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) calculate “affordability” as a measure of home prices relative to median income. For example, NAR’s calculations are “Based on a 25% qualifying ratio for monthly housing expense to gross monthly income with a 20% down payment.” Of the 225 metros ranked by NAHB, Carson City ranks 6th nationally. Phoenix is 51st and Las Vegas is 59th, while Washington DC is 176th, the San Francisco-Bay Area is 224th, and New York is 225th. And all of these measures are flat wrong. “Capita per Inventory” - a calculation of how many people (capita) there are for each available home for sale (inventory) – is a truer supply and demand measure, determining the amount of demand relative to available housing supply. Here in the San Francisco bay area, we hear it all the time: “How can anyone afford a house in Palo Alto with a median price easily over $1,500,000?” Except that it is not anyone who has to be able to afford a house in Palo Alto, but fewer than 60 households because that’s how many homes are for sale right now in Palo Alto. As long there are enough people with incomes able to support a million dollar home in Palo Alto, it very quickly becomes “affordable.” With Apple, Facebook, Zynga,
16 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
and the rest of the booming Silicon Valley tech companies, there are plenty of available buyers out there at these prices. Examining five Bay Area cities for the week ending 11/11/11, the “Capita per Inventory” numbers are startling, and explain everything about home prices in these markets. 11/11/2011 Median Price
Palo Alto
Capita per Inventory
$1,745,395
1,512
Davis
$468,100
653
San Jose
$497,369
460
Stockton
$132,282
290
Sacramento
$143,894
274
Moreover, the home price data set since January 2007 reveals an 87% correlation on “Capita per Inventory” to home prices — as “Capita per Inventory” changes, so do home prices. The fewer the
number of people per available home for sale, the lower the local market’s price becomes. Stockton and Sacramento, where available housing inventory is relatively high, require significant in-migration or local demand (thousands of people) to clear the local market’s inventory, while more desirous towns like Palo Alto and Davis need about a hundred people to snap up the available inventory. Think Stockton and Sacramento measure poorly? Capita per Inventory in Carson City is 205, while Las Vegas measures at 106. This concept applies more broadly to metros and regions. The Bay Area, Washington DC, and New York, while they have their own local market variances, are considered more expensive and thus “unaffordable” by traditional methods. However, their
Capita per Inventory measures relatively high compared to lowerpriced markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas, considered by traditional measures to be “more affordable.” Finally, Capita per Inventory has implications for municipalities and city planning policies. Zoning restrictions, school districts, and tax laws, if implemented effectively, can directly support home prices by restricting housing supply and increasing the demand to live in their towns. Inflation-adjusted median incomes are flat to down since the recession, and the pundits talk in circular arguments — housing won’t recover until we solve unemployment, but we can’t solve unemployment until we solve housing. That’s true in a national sense, but for the savvy investor crunching the right numbers, there are plenty of opportunities to find local markets where demand will always be relatively strong. So when you’re at dinner and you hear, “Palo Alto is so expensive, but it’s a great time to buy in Sacramento - houses are cheap! I should buy two or three and rent them out!,” take five minutes and explain Capita per Inventory. Their nest egg will thank you for it. (Note: Altos Research is a market analytics firm and does not provide investment advisory services. This article should not be construed as specific investment advice to buy or sell properties. Consult your local real estate professional before making any real estate investment decisions.) Contact Scott Sambucci at www.altosresearch.com
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F E AT U R E
SJREI Member of The Year Our SJREI Member of the year for 2011 is Don Smallie. Like many real estate investors, Don Smallie enjoyed the success of a rising market (at one point accumulating a net worth of $6,000,000) only to hit rock bottom when the market crashed. Unlike most investors, he is willing to admit that he lost money in real estate and readily shares how he made his way back from the brink of bankruptcy. It all started with a pair of running shoes and a handful of flyers. In 1975 Don graduated Chiropractic College; he received his California license the following year. Over the next three decades, Don grew his business in Stockton, California, to six Chiropractic offices with a total of 20 employees, and a health food store. Meanwhile, Don began investing in real estate. He purchased his first home in 1978 and began buying a few houses a year. Some were fix-and-flips and some were lowpriced homes that he rehabbed and rented out. By 2008 he owned 48 units in Stockton. In 1990 Don started investing in houses and apartments in Oklahoma, eventually accumulating over 200 doors. Rehabbing long distance proved to be disastrous. It was difficult to control the costs or the results. However, Don continued to do well in California until the market changed. Almost overnight, his net worth plummeted and he found himself $1,500,000 in debt. That’s when he put on his running shoes. In order to generate income Don hand delivered 75,000 flyers looking for construction
18 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
jobs. As a long distance runner, it seemed the sensible thing to do. For every 1,000 flyers Don distributed, he received two leads. He closed 50% of those leads and earned his way back to profitability. His partner, Catalino Alvarez, worked without being paid for six months because he believed in Don and his ability to bounce back. Don said, “I couldn’t have done it without him. We have been a team for 12 years, but he had every reason to bail three years ago.” Don scaled back his chiropractic practice to 20 hours per week and now operates two chiropractic offices. He continues to focus on renovations and buys houses at courthouse steps (foreclosures) daily. “I cannot afford to make any mistakes, so that is what drives me now,” Don said. When Don developed his construction business, it was to fill his own needs. It has grown to include rehabs for other investors who appreciate the quality and speed of his work. He has several full time construction employees and is currently working on 18 flips with partners. Don also became a licensed realtor and lists most of his houses, a smart move given the volume of houses he turns. In the last two years, Don has purchased at least 60 houses at auction. Three years after the market crash, and several pairs of running shoes later, Don has returned from the brink of bankruptcy and is on track to pay off his remaining debt by January 1, 2012. We salute Don Smallie’s tenacity, his honor to commitments, and his dedication to education. Congratulations Don!
F E AT U R E
Blog World Expo 2011 by Aaron Norris
Aaron Norris is Vice President of the Norris Group where he is responsible for business development and production of TNG’s award winning radio show, events, and educational seminars. Mr. Norris is also principal at Palisoul, Norris, + Conroy, a marketing and strategy team based in Southern California and hosts the marketing and business podcast, The Cocktail Party Statement.
Even the biggest nerds on the block need rejuvenation and inspiration every so often. Flash to Los Angeles Convention Center in early November for this year’s Blog World Expo. I originally had no plans to go, but a friend was appearing on one of the panels, so I thought what the heck. Immediately I registered for the event, then booked a spacious condo via airbnb.com. (Never heard of it? It’s a must-see.) Industry thought-leaders had a lot to say about the current state of their business, and I think you’ll enjoy a few of my personal takeaways over the next few issues of REI Voice. Look for Google+ to Continue to Improve
Google+ was by far the biggest surprise of the weekend. I fully expected to hear speaker after speaker shred Google for their lack of integration across Google tools and complain about spotty participation. I was sure Google+ would die the same ugly death Google Buzz and Wave did. How wrong I was. Several speakers were very excited about Google+. In a nutshell: Twitter is on its way out, Facebook will be reserved for family and friends, and Google+ is the place for passionate professionals. “Google+ is to Facebook what Macintosh is to Windows,” said Guy Kawasaki while on stage with author Chris Brogan during the BWELA opening. Color me stunned. Kawasaki went on to talk about how he was all too happy to automate responses on Twitter and Facebook, but personally answered all posts in Google+. While Google+ offers some unique features, many of us find it hard to justify in-
vesting time and energy into something you aren’t sure will pay off. But Guy warned the audience that those who invested in G+ early would be rewarded — much like those who invested their time and effort into Twitter. The bottom line: don’t rule out Google+ just yet. At any time Google could change its algorithm and reward businesses and individuals that participate in its network. With Google andYouTube (Google owned) being the number one and two search engines on the net, that’s a big deal. Advice for 2012
Make sure to cross-promote through different channels. Some of your customers might love Facebook, but some want to work with you on Google+, LinkedIn, email, or Twitter. Play around and find the right mix for you and your business.
Think long term whenever you approach any social media tool. Don’t be distracted by people stacking up friends on Facebook or buying Twitter friends. Focus on relevance. If you aren’t relevant and your network doesn’t care what you do, you’re wasting your time at best, and could be alienating potential clients. Search engines are smarter than you think and aren’t just looking at quantitative data — they’re examining the qualitative as well. Finally, get off the computer and enjoy your family, friends and colleagues without the distraction of the blinking red light on your BlackBerry, cell phone interruptions at lunch, the constant Facebook
updates and your incessant need to let everyone know what you’ve eaten on Twitter. These things can wait. At the end of the day, people and the relationships we build are what really matter. To sign up for Google+, navigate to www.google.com/+ and follow the on screen instructions. Be sure to add REI Voice Magazine to your circle. Contact Aaron Norris at 951-780-5856 or Aaron@TheNorrisGroup.com
Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
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Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
21
Ger’s Top 5 by Geraldine Barry
Get up and Make it happen for 2012!
1 2 3
If you don’t like things in your life you have the power to change them by simply changing yourself — things don’t change, but you can! Any little modification can make a difference — an introduction of something new, an exercise routine, a daily reading schedule, journaling, bonding with your family by creating new happy rituals.
How you present yourself to the world makes a difference, how you look, how you speak, how you interact with others, who you interact with, what you read, what you spend your time doing. What is your message to the world? “I am here, ready to take on a new challenge and I want to change the world in a positive way.” It is your choice. I have always been incredibly optimistic, occasionally I have lost sight of that optimism, but now as I grow and learn to navigate this game called life, I have come to embrace this gift that I have been blessed with every day. How do I do that? I start my day with a prayer of gratitude naming the things that I am grateful for — my family, my warm cozy home, my friends, a hot cup of tea, a great book, quiet time to think, process and write, our wonderful, warm SJREI community. By appreciating these things, and so many other seemingly trivial things I am happier and more content. I realize that what I appreciate grows more secure, and becomes more defined in my life. Try gratitude — I think it will help you too.
4
There are people who drag us down, naysayers if you will. Remove those people from your life. If they are your family members show them a new way to be by mirroring for them your great new attitude. My Dad shared with me (he ran a company and was surrounded by 6 daughters, 2 sons, and a wife) that sometimes he survived by “psychologically absenting himself” from negative situations. How do you do that? Tune them out, get away from situations, people, and attitudes that don’t propel you forward. Remember to be gentle as you work on this and have patience with yourself, this is a process it does not happen overnight.
5
Lastly, live in the moment. Whatever you are doing give it 100% of your attention — walking with your children, having coffee with a friend, working, hanging with your family — be present, enjoy that moment. Your family and friends will love you for this level of attention. Very few people can truly do this. Be wary of electronics, they can be thieves of our time, and our spirit. The things that renew you are not material. They are love, companionship, friendship, family, community, giving back.
Be brave, do whatever it takes to accomplish new results. I want you to have your best year yet! Thank you for being a part of our SJREI community. We appreciate your trust in us.
Geraldine Barry is founder and president of SJREI Association the premier educational and networking association for real estate investors in the Bay area. Under Geraldine’s leadership SJREI has grown from a half-dozen investors to a vibrant three chapter organization with over 400 investors attending monthly meetings. SJREI won the Award for Excellence from the National REIA (Real Estate Investors Association) in several categories in 2010. As an avid investor herself, Geraldine has interviewed multiple real estate pros, many of whom have been guests of SJREI. In addition to leading SJREI, Geraldine is the frequent host of the radio program, Going Beyond Real Estate, a regular guest on the nationally broadcasted NTDTV, publisher of award winning publication REI Voice Magazine, and producer of the much acclaimed annual Bay Area Real Estate Expo. As a serial entrepreneur Geraldine is also a principal in Miles/Barry Contract Furniture serving corporations in the Silicon Valley. Additionally, she coaches business principals and CEO’s, guiding them in becoming more productive in less time in their leadership positions, helping them identify their core strengths, focusing on those to achieve their vision, and delegating effectively. Geraldine resides in Silicon Valley, and is the proud mother of Colin & Claire her two children.
22 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012
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Call Barbara Miles at 650-359-5611
PROJECT SERVICES • Consultation and Project Phases • Design CAD Drawings • Installation • Reconfiguration • Affordable Pricing • Panel Cleaning • Leasing • Extensive Product Lines
bnmiles@milesbarryfurniture.com www.MilesBarryFurniture.com Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE
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We are real estate investors closing hundreds of
transactions yearly with a nationwide client base. We offer long term wealth solutions with comprehensive services available, including licensed property management, structure, and rehab management. We also offer coaching, mentoring, and educational programs for our clients. We have purchased over 1,000 properties since 2004 for our clients. We currently manage over 820 rental properties throughout the Memphis area for local and out-of-state-investors, of which 95% are single family homes. And we currently have a 95.07% occupancy rate.
Call today! Chris Clothier, Co-Owner, MemphisInvest.com
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Immediate Equity
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Instant Positive Cash Flow
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Tax Advantages
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Income and Appreciation
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Completely Passive Investing
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Leverage-Equity Build Up
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Undervalued Properties
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Licensed Property Management Company