Q3 2016 CONDO UPDATE
PAUL HWANG | RANKED #1 IN SOUTH BEACH | 415.216.8746
Dear Neighbors, As we face an uncertain Presidential Election and higher variance in the global equity markets, a more conservative outlook on real estate naturally emerges. Year over Year data reflects this conservative sentiment in an increase of +87% for Q3 Average Days on the Market in South Beach and a 33% decrease in Q3 Sales Activity in Yerba Buena. It’s logical to come to the conclusion that these are forward indicators of a return to a more normal market. We must remember the super heated foreign money and tech driven markets of the past few years were actually an anomaly and not the norm. The naive would capriciously yell “crash coming,� the more experienced would suggest parity or equilibrium between buyers and sellers. I would estimate that in the next 18 months a 15-20% probability of an event, global or domestic, that would trigger an ultraconservative environment. I advise sellers to reexamine their time horizons for holding property. If within 18 months, then I advise to sell now.
Best Regards, Paul Hwang | Principal Broker Ranked #1 in South Beach 415.216.8746 This document has been prepared by Skybox Realty for advertising and general information only. Skybox Realty makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Skybox Realty excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.
2016 Q3 SAN FRANCISCO ACTIVITY
ABSORPTION & INVENTORY Absorption Rate = Number of Units Sold / 3 Months (July - Sept 2016) Months of Inventory = Number of Active Listings / Absorption Rate District 9 District 8 District 6 District 5
WESTERN ADDITION 3.7 Units 31% QOQ 1.1 Months
CIVIC C 6.7 Unit 2.7 Mon
ALAMO SQUARE 2 Units 14% QOQ 4 Months HAYES VALLEY 11.3 Units 47% Q 2.3 Months DUBOCE 101% QOQ 2.7 Units .75 Months
MISSION DOLOR 55 6 Units 1 Month EUREKA VALLEY 9% QOQ 10.3 Units 3 Months
NOE VALLEY 18.3 Units 1.2 Months
3.5% QOQ
NOB HILL 7.7 Units 3 Months
28% QOQ
FINANCIAL DISTRICT 0% QOQ 2 Units 6 Months
DOWNTOWN 4.3 Units 32% QOQ 3.2 Months TENDERLOIN .67 Units 0% QOQ 3 Months
YERBA BUENA 9.9% QOQ 6.7 Units 5.4 Months
SOUTH BEACH 5.7% QOQ 18.7 Units 3.2 Months
CENTER ts 23% QOQ nths SOMA 14.7 Units 19% QOQ 2.2 Months
QOQ
MISSION BAY 60% QOQ 6 Units 4.8 Months
RES 5% QOQ INNER MISSION 14.7 Units 4.8% QOQ 1.4 Months
POTRERO 9.3 Units 1.7 Months
36% QOQ
DOGPATCH 4.3 Units 28% QOQ 1.62 Months
MILLENNIUM TOWER | 16 - 17 181 FREMONT | 30 - 31 THE INFINITY | 10 - 11
LUMINA | 24 - 25
THE METROPOLITAN | 12 - 13 THE WATERMARK | 20 - 21 THE HARRISON | 26 - 27 ONE RINCON HILL | 14 - 15 ONE HAWTHORNE | 18 - 19
72 TOWNSEND | 28 - 29
SOUTH BEACH
2016 Q3 FAST FACTS # SOLD
AVG SALE PRICE
AVG $/SF
AVG DOM
59 $1,215,310 $1,187 56 13% QOQ
14% QOQ
2.1% QOQ
14% QOQ
8% YOY
1.8% YOY
6.1% YOY
87% YOY
CUMULATIVE $/SF DATA FOR PAST YEAR $1300 $1200 $1100 $1000
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
QOQ = Quarter Over Quarter
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
YOY = Year Over Year
9
YERBA BUENA
2016 Q3 FAST FACTS # SOLD
AVG SALE PRICE
20
AVG $/SF
AVG DOM
$898,150 $1,194 49
9.1% QOQ
51% QOQ
16% QOQ
40% QOQ
33% YOY
28% YOY
1.4% YOY
2% YOY
CUMULATIVE $/SF DATA FOR PAST YEAR $1400 $1300 $1200 2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
$1100
All Data From SFARMLS
301 / 333 MAIN | 318 / 338 SPEAR
THE INFINITY SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING D37E | $2,700,000 (2BR) $2015/sf
D31A | $2,590,000 (2BR) $2033/sf D30H | $1,799,000 (2BR) $1360/sf D28F | $1,799,000 (2BR) $1365/sf
D20C | $1,495,000 (1BR) $1975/sf
D15H | $1,495,000 (2BR) $1130/sf
D10G | $924,800 (1BR) $1150/sf D8B | $1,450,000 (2BR) $1095/sf
A8G | $949,000 (1BR) $1189/sf A7F | $1,788,000 (3BR) $1076/sf
D5B | $1,470,000 (2BR) $1110/sf D3F | $1,199,000 (1BR) $1318/sf
A4K | $949,000 (1BR) $1141/sf
# SOLD
AVG $/SF
7
AVG SALE PRICE
$1,373 $1,728,643
AVG DOM
59
30% QOQ
14% QOQ
19% QOQ
7.2% QOQ
YOY
19% YOY
1.5% YOY
26% YOY
B37B | $12,000,000 (3BR) $3548/sf
B32E | $2,875,000 (3BR) $1712/sf B32A | $2,199,000 (2BR) $1734/sf
B24C | $1,350,000 (1BR) $1669/sf B23B | $1,995,000 (2BR) $1515/sf
B11A | $1,415,000 (2BR) $1217/sf B9C | $895,000 (1BR) $1119/sf
C5L | $892,500 (2BR) $1059/sf
B5C | $1,874,888 (2BR) $1070/sf All Data From SFARMLS
C2B | $1,149,000 (1BR) $954/sf
11
333 / 355 1ST
THE METROPOLITAN SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING
N1703 | $849,000 (1BR) $1191/sf N1606 | $679,000 (0BR) $1342/sf
N1001 | $1,128,000 (2BR) $1175/sf N706 | $599,000 (0BR) $1184/sf N605 | $825,000 (1BR) $1164/sf
N1701 | $1,199,000 (2
# SOLD
3
AVG $/SF
AVG SALE PRICE
$1,249 $1,043,333
AVG DOM
57
40% QOQ
4.3% QOQ
29% QOQ
78% QOQ
43% YOY
2.5% YOY
10% YOY
43% YOY
2BR) $1252/sf
S2306 | $899,000 (1BR) $1230/sf
S1807 | $1,511,000 (2BR) $1296/sf
S1104 | $402,980 (2BR) bmr
S301 | $745,000 (1BR) $1131/sf S303 | $720,000 (1BR) $1268/sf S204 | $1,049,000 (2BR) $1089/sf All Data From SFARMLS
13
425 1ST | 489 HARRISON
ONE RINCON HILL SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING # SOLD
5
AVG $/SF
AVG SALE PRICE
$1,553 $1,722,000
AVG DOM
110
250% QOQ
5.5% QOQ
4.1% QOQ
233% QOQ
YOY
6% YOY
14% YOY
156% YOY
1607 | $1,149,000 (1BR) $1403
3/sf
15 6002 | $3,149,000 (3BR) $2064/sf 5803 | $3,595,000 (3BR) $2144/sf 5701 | $3,588,000 (2BR) $2189/sf
5106 | $2,300,000 (2BR) $1814/sf
4605 | $983,000 (1BR) $1385/sf 4504 | $899,000 (1BR) $1486/sf 4402 | $2,200,000 (2BR) $1681/sf
3408 | $1,215,000 (1BR) $1609/sf
2708 | $1,135,000 (1BR) $1503/sf
2205 | $915,000 (1BR) $1289/sf 1903 | $1,699,000 (2BR) $1329/sf 1707 | $1,159,000 (1BR) $1415/sf 1601 | $1,150,000 (2BR) $1374/sf 1402 | $1,825,000 (2BR) $1394/sf 1306 | $1,400,000 (2BR) $1131/sf
902 | $1,498,000 (2BR) $1144/sf
All Data From SFARMLS
301 MISSION
MILLENNIUM SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING
604 | $2,199,000 (2BR) $1481/sf 502 | $3,600,000 (2BR) $2024/sf 405 | $2,195,000 (2BR) $1265/sf
PHA | $8,995,000 (2BR) $3324/sf
# SOLD
2
AVG $/SF
AVG SALE PRICE
$1,518 $1,917,500
AVG DOM
65
71% QOQ
6.5% QOQ
38% QOQ
54% QOQ
YOY
1.5% YOY
4.6% YOY
38% YOY
41E | $2,710,000 (2BR) $1581/sf
34E | $2,595,000 (2BR) $1514/sf
24H | $1,125,000 (2BR) $1455/sf
17A | $1,499,000 (2BR) $1014/sf
All Data From SFARMLS 4E | $1,499,000 (2BR) $1320/sf
17
1 HAWTHORNE LANE
ONE HAWTHORNE SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING
25D | $3,549,000 (2BR) $1814/s
sf
# SOLD
0
AVG $/SF
$----
AVG SALE PRICE
$----
AVG DOM
----
100% QOQ
QOQ
QOQ
QOQ
100% YOY
YOY
YOY
YOY
25C | $3,450,000 (3BR) $1729/sf
19E | $1,795,000 (2BR) $1444/sf
12A | $1,049,000 (1BR) $1154/sf
7G | $999,000 (1BR) $1158/sf 6C | $899,000 (1BR) $1056/sf
2E | $875,000 (1BR) $1057/sf
19
501 BEALE
WATERMARK SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING
# SOLD
0
AVG $/SF
$----
AVG SALE PRICE
$----
AVG DOM
----
100% QOQ
QOQ
QOQ
QOQ
100% YOY
YOY
YOY
YOY
18A | $3,498,000 (3BR) $2381/sf
11A | $1,889,000 (2BR) $1628/sf 10D | $1,779,000 (2BR) $1413/sf
All Data From SFARMLS
21
SOUTH BEACH & YERBA BUENA CONDOS
SOLD UNITS IN Q3 2016 Address
BR
BA
Status
Status Date
355 1st 303
1
1
Sold
7.7.16
333 Main 5L
2
1
Sold
7.28.16
355 1st 2306
1
1
Sold
8.22.16
318 Spear 4K
1
1
Sold
9.19.16
301 Mission 24H
1
1
Sold
7.27.16
425 1st 2708
1
1
Sold
7.21.16
425 1st 1601
1
1
Sold
8.5.16
301 Main 11A
2
2
Sold
9.19.16
338 Spear 5B
2
2
Sold
8.8.16
355 1st 1807
2
2
Sold
7.18.16
338 Spear 30H
2
2
Sold
9.9.16
425 1st 1402
2
2
Sold
8.16.16
425 1st 4402
2
2
Sold
8.15.16
425 1st 5106
2
2
Sold
7.25.16
338 Spear 37E
2
2
Sold
7.14.16
301 Mission 41E
2
2
Sold
7.20.16
301 Main 32E
3
2.5
Sold
8.24.16
* Only showing sold units in buildings featured in this book. Does not include new construction.
23
DOM
SF
List Price
Sold Price
$/SF
18
568
$729,000
$720,000
$1268
89
843
$949,000
$892,500
$1059
90
731
$949,000
$899,000
$1230
2
832
$959,000
$949,000
$1141
84
773
$1,078,000
$1,125,000
$1455
151
755
$1,269,000
$1,135,000
$1503
20
837
$1,139,000
$1,150,000
$1374
72
1163
$1,495,000
$1,415,000
$1217
38
1324
$1,495,000
$1,470,000
$1110
63
----
$1,595,000
$1,511,000
----
69
1323
$1,999,999
$1,799,000
$1360
148
1309
$2,095,000
$1,825,000
$1394
178
1309
$2,950,000
$2,200,000
$1681
53
1268
$2,495,000
$2,300,000
$1814
1
1340
$2,750,000
$2,700,000
$2015
45
1714
$2,695,000
$2,710,000
$1581
142
1679
$3,195,000
$2,875,000
$1712
All Data From SFARMLS
318 / 338 MAIN | 333 BEALE | 201 FOLSOM
LUMINA SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING
B16C | $2,125,000 (2BR)
B12D | $1,180,000 (1BR)
B6F | $1,355,000 (2BR) B4B | $1,415,000 (2BR)
# UNITS
656
# SOLD / IN CONTRACT
2BR LIST PRICE
456+
1BR LIST PRICE
$975,000+
3BR LIST PRICE
$1,355,000+ $3,365,000+
D36A | $8,895,000 (3BR)
D15B | $1,950,000 (2BR)
D3D | $895,000 (1BR)
25
401 HARRISON
THE HARRISON SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING # UNITS
298
# CLOSED / IN CONTRACT
2BR LIST PRICE
44+
$1,250,000+
1BR LIST PRICE
$786,000+
3BR LIST PRICE
$3,750,000+
6F | $1,250,000 (2BR) $1008/sf 5D | $786,000 (1BR) $1297/sf
27
33C | $2,468,000 (2BR) $1850/sf
18D | $1,840,000 (2BR) $1419/sf 16F | $1,800,000 (2BR) $1452/sf 14G | $1,217,000 (1BR) $1486/sf 12A | $1,028,000 (1BR) $1224/sf
6B | 774,000 (1BR) $1040/sf 5F | $1,200,000 (2BR) $968/sf 4C | $1,299,000 (2BR) $1008/sf
Only showing listings marketed on SFARMLS
72 TOWNSEND
72 TOWNSEND SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING
PH1 | $3,449,000 (3BR) $1982/sf
702 | $1,699,000 (1BR) $1402/sf
702 | $1,699,000 (1BR) $1402/sf 610 | $1,429,000 (2BR) $1172/sf 509 | $1,329,000 (2BR) $1170/sf
# UNITS
67
# SOLD / IN CONTRACT
51+
2BR LIST PRICE
1BR LIST PRICE
$955,000+
3BR LIST PRICE
$1,426,000+ $3,449,000+
803 | $1,175,000 (1BR) $1497/sf 703 | $1,075,000 (1BR) $1369/sf
707 | $1,100,999 (1BR) $1293/sf
607 | $1,045,000 (1BR) $1228/sf
608 | $1,225,000 (1BR) $1219/sf
Only showing listings marketed on SFARMLS
29
181 FREMONT
181 FREMONT SOLD ACTIVE ACTIVE CONTINGENT PENDING
# UNITS
67
# IN CONTRACT
10+
2BR LIST PRICE
$3,000,000+
3BR LIST PRICE
$6,500,000+
66A | $8,500,000 (3BR) $3536/sf
60C | $3,245,000 (2BR) $2571/sf
55C | $3,580,000 (1BR) $2231/sf
Only showing listings marketed on SFARMLS
31
SOUTH BEACH CONDO ACTIVITY
CONDO SALES 120
NUMBER OF SOLD CONDOS
110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Q1 ‘13
Q2 ‘13
Q3 ‘13
Q4 ‘13
Q1 ‘14
Q2 ‘14
Q3 ‘14
4
33
Q4 ‘14
Q1 ‘15
Q2 ‘15
Q3‘15
Q4 ‘15
Q1 ‘16
Q2 ‘16
Q3 ‘16
All Data From SFARMLS
SOUTH BEACH CONDO ACTIVITY
AVERAGE MARKET TIME 60
AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET
55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Q1 ‘13
Q2 ‘13
Q3 ‘13
Q4 ‘13
Q1 ‘14
Q2 ‘14
Q3 ‘1
14
35
Q4 ‘14
Q1 ‘15
Q2 ‘15
Q3‘15
Q4 ‘15
Q1 ‘16
Q2 ‘16
Q3 ‘16
All Data From SFARMLS
PAUL HWANG
bre 01371169 | 415.216.8746 RANKED #1 IN SOUTH BEACH paul@skyboxrealty.com
流利國語