Ascot, December 6, 2008 FIRST LEG 3.35 WA
SECOND LEG 4.15 WA time
THIRD LEG 4.55 WA time
FOURTH LEG 5.35 WA time
Lord Mayor’s Cup (1200m)
Kingston Town Classic (1800m, WFA)
Lee-Steere Classic (1400m, Gr3, 3YO, SW)
Mostyn Group Hcp (1200m)
A moderate bunch makes choice difficult. An example is (2) Local Legend, who hasn’t won since October 2006, although placed nine times (6 seconds) from 28 starts in that period. He’s drawn to lead and run boldly. Leave him out, he wins. Put him in, he runs second. (1) Naval Seal is not running. (5) Electric General finished strongly behind Naval Seal last week, but was never going to win. His best wins this. (11) Key To Money was wide and powerful first up behind Dante’s Volonte, and although rising in class has more ahead of him than the rest of the field combined. The 8YO (7) Star Laser has strong form in Stakes Company, and dominated a trial at Belmont on Nov 24. In new stable. Won 1/5 first up. (4) Larson is a firm tracker, who came off battling Melbourne form in better company with a moderate fifth in the Hannans at Kalgoorlie three months back. Third to (3) Corporate Sam in a hot 1000m trial at Belmont 24 November. Corporate Sam has never won first up, nor second up. Strong trial puts him in. At his best (6) Innovation must be considered. Big class fall.
There are 16 runners but only five headline chances – (2) Niconero, (3) Marasco, (4) Sniper’s Bullet, (5) Gilded Venom, and (16) Grand Nirvana, and one ‘must include’ – (14) Famous Roman. Marasco fans will be torn: bet big on The Big M because of his strong advantage under the WFA conditions, or discard him because no reasonable mind could see him winning after three weeks straight, after a sequence of races over 1600m, 1200m, and now 1800m. Toss the coin; he does meet Gilded Venom 5.5kg better for his 4 lens defeat (11 th) in the Railway. Gilded Venom is in great form, and looks a star. Must be in, as must Niconero, a Gr1 and WFA winner. Grand Nirvana has been ‘set’ for this – has class and set weights form in the best WA 3YO company. Famous Roman was super beating Gilded Venom in the Peters (1500m, Gr3), then was 5/4/3 wide before 2½ lens 9th in the Railway, a neck behind Grand Nirvana. We wonder about (4) Sniper’s Bullet at the trip, and we’re happy to leave out (12) Majestical and (13) Mission Critical.
We’re not much help to anybody here, as we would not move in our chair if any of (1) Sheenasaidgrey, (2) Revolition, (3) Liquidation, (5) Destino, (6) Cassandara Shadow and (7) Lead Rope win the race. They have form around each other, switching orders as circumstances and weights and barriers have entered the equation. Forget, for example, Sheenasaidgrey’s last run in the Placid Ark (1200m) – saddle shifted early. Destino was wide, and gunned down late when second to the soft-covered Liquidation in the same race, and Revolition overraced in the middle stages, before fighting hard to the line. How to split any of those? In the same race, Cassandara Shadow was well back and finished hard, but was still 2 ½ lens back at the finish. Distance suits, as does barrier one. Lead Rope was all over the shop at the end of her third to Liquidation (1200m) at Ascot on Nov 15, and rider said she was never travelling. Did well in the end to come again for third, in a good form race. Confused? Go wide.
We’ve been wide all the way, but we’re going to discard most of the runners in the last, and go for the lightly raced, and very promising lightweight (15) Tudor Lad, and hold our breath. The Canny Lad stallion has raced twice for very, very soft wins. He’s also trialled twice, and won them too. He looks to us that he can lead, run on the pace, or come from midfield. We know it’s a jump from Bunbury to a strong version of a restricted event, but this fellow looks the goods. Burnzy, 4th to Tudor Lad has won twice since. There will be a buzz around Tudor Lad, but sometimes “the buzz” needs to be protected by a little common sense. The common sense inclusions in the last are (3) Sporting Fella, brilliant in the lead first up, after early challenges (one start at 1200m for third in June to Key To Money, and (5) Grey Monarch, who has been moderate in four runs since a stunning first up win over 1400m at Belmont on June 7. He came from well back when favourite and fourth to Dante’s Volonte (1200m) at Ascot on Nov 22. He can race near the lead, and from the gate, with Pike up, should have every show.
11/5/7/3 – 6/4/2
16/2/14/3/5 – 4
time
5/3/2 – 1/7/6
15 – 3/5
FOCUS ON FOURTH LEG
THE PLAYS
Legs one to three are tough, but we reckon you can safely go narrow in the last, with Tudor Lad one out, or for safety, Tudor Lad, Sporting Fella and Grey Monarch. We know strange things happen, but if any of these three miss, we won’t be getting the quaddie. We loved the wins of Tudor Lad, we reckon he has been ideally placed, and he’s drawn to get the run of the race. With a narrow finale, you can go as wide as the bank allows – even with all our combinations covered, $100 will give you 13.23% in the flexi world.
$48
11,5,7,3 – 16,2,14,3,5,4 – 5,3,2,1 – 15 50%
$120
11,5,7,3,6 – 16,2,14,3,5,4 – 5,3,2,1 – 15,3 50%
$180
11,5,7,3,6 – 16,2,14,3,5,4 – 5,3,2,1,7,6 – 15,3 50%
$270
11,5,7,3,6 – 16,2,14,3,5,4 – 5,3,2,1,7,6 – 15,3, 5 50%
$378
11,5,7,3,6,4,2 – 16,2,14,3,5,4 – 5,3,2,1,7,6 – 15,3,5 50%
OUR FAVOURED BET
$200
11,5,7,3,6 – 16,2,14,3,5,4 – 5,3,2,1,7,6 – 15,3, 5 37.04%