Ascot, WA, January 10, 2009 FIRST LEG 3.30 WA time
SECOND LEG 4.05 WA time
THIRD LEG 4.43 WA time
FOURTH LEG 5.20 WA time
Clan West Hcp (0-86) 2400m
Westspeed 3yo Hcp (0-67) 1500m
Pago Magic Hcp (0-86) 1400m
Great Fellow Hcp (0-79) 1200m
This is a case of (5) Highly Prized, promising in winning his past two, continuing his run through the classes, OR anything goes. This is the time of the year when staying races at headquarters have the habit of throwing up different winners each week, sometimes with no rhyme or reason. We think we can reduce this lot to two genuine chances, Highly Prized and (7) Ocean’s Twelve, three maybes, (4) Genuine Silence, (6) Marine Drive and (11) Twice The Magic, and two “who wouldn’t really surprise” – (8) Storm In The North and (12) Youlwin. If none of those gets home, the whiskey cupboard will be getting an early beating. Highly Prized did just enough to win a maiden (2012m) at Pinjarra on Dec 21 and a (064) 2400m race at Ascot on Dec 24. This is notionally a rise in class, but his improvement with each run gives us confidence he can continue. Ocean’s Twelve is in career best form, and his win over Vain Spirit at Pinjarra (2000m) on Jan 3 was soft. Genuine Silence’s two wins have been at long odds, but staying’s his go. The rest are a case of include and hope.
Another toughie, with limited form comparisons available. We were most impressed with (2) Kaiser Crown’s first up win from (11) Port Johnson in a 1400m maiden at Ascot on Dec 24. Jockey Brad Parnham found every run in the book, from near last at the 800m, but the win was strong and the runaway from Port Johnson powerful. This is no harder. (6) Domani’s Girl was similarly strong from near last and wide, winning over this trip from the hot favourite Mineours Luck on Dec 3, then had the stewards interested when a flagging last to Sheenasaidgrey on Dec 17. Blinkers off this time, and worth another show. (12) Sweet Dane was wide and worked hard when second to the promising McMindy in a 1500m maiden at Ascot on Dec 24. Ready to progress with four runs under her belt. (3) Taxtime has been just okay in three runs since a strong 1000m straight win at Pinjarra on Nov 6, and (4) Crowny, while still a maiden, has been finishing his races well. (8) Scenic Gun was moderate on debut, when well in the market. (1) Kim Coin disappointed last time after having the gun run. Claim will assist.
We’re going to put all our faith in (7) Proart to dominate what is otherwise a very even lot. The Rock Of Gibraltar stallion has been most consistent since resuming with a brilliant all-the-way win over 1200m at Ascot on Nov 8. His form since has been without luck, other than a disappointing third to Storm Closure two starts back. We like him from the front of the field, and he could have that sort of run in this lot. If you’re not sure about Proart, then there are many chances, and we’ll try to put them in some order: (4) Oscar Wildly, (9) Gondorff, (6) Tidal Storm, (10) Pete The Profiler, (12) Timeless Star, (11) Split The Scene and, although against our usual principles, the 10YO, (2) Beyond Dispute. Oscar Wildly was strong to the line over 1400m here on New Year’s Day, and from the close-in gate should have a cushy run. Gondorff promises a lot, and if seconds were firsts he’d be a star (22sts, 29-5!!!). Pete The Profiler’s fifth to Dante’s Volonte (Proart 3rd) was better than it seems, and his previous run was a ripper. Can certainly go well from the inside draw
Another nightmare to finish the quaddie. It seems whoever organises the order at Ascot has a wicked sense of humour. Those that probably sit at the top of the list are the consistent (7) Proud Falcon, and (3) China Bay, a strong finishing first-up winner after a couple of conditioning trials. There was only a neck between them last time and Proud Falcon (2 wins from 10) has a minor weight advantage; however, that could negated by his wide draw. Others to include are (4) Danby Wiske, who showed something of his best when narrowly third to Rose Of Dante over 1200m at Ascot on December 20, and two resuming off quality trials – (12) Miss Alonso and (14) Silver Business. Silver Business was impressive at Belmont trials (1000m), but is still a “promising” maiden after five starts. Miss Alonso just went around when third at Belmont on Dec 22. She returns from quality Goldfields form in the winter. Others to include are (5) Found And Kept, (8) Gold Sabre, (10) Kenile and (6) Friartruck.
5,7 – 4,6,11 – 8, 12
2,6 – 12, 11, 1 – 3,4,8
7 – 4,9,10 – 6,12,11,2
7,3 – 4,12,14 – 10,5,8,6
FOCUS ON THIRD LEG
THE PLAYS
We’ll be putting all our eggs into (7) Proart in the third leg, a) because we think he’ll win, and b) we can’t see any other way to work out a quaddie that won’t cost the queen’s ransom. Proart has been competitive in what we think is better company, and could control this race. The only other leg that may be kept tight is the first, with Highly Prized and Ocean’s Twelve, but we’re always nervous about going short in the first leg.
$25
OUR FAVOURED BET
$252
5,7 – 2,6,12,11,1 – 7 – 7,3,4,12,14
$62.5 5,7,4,6,11 – 2,6,12,11,1 – 7 – 7,3,4,12,14 $105
5,7,4,6,11,8,12 – 2,6,12,11,1 – 7 – 7,3,4,12,14,10
$252
5,7,4,6,11,8,12–2,6,12,11,1,3,4,8 – 7 – 7,3,4,12,14,10,5,8,6
$420
5,7,4,6,11,8,12 – 2,6,12,11,1 – 7 – FIELD
5,7,4,6,11,8,12 – 2,6,12,11,1,3,4,8 – 7 – 7,3,4,12,14,10,5,8,6