Ascot, WA, February 14, 2009 FIRST LEG 3.35 WA time
SECOND LEG 4.15 WA time
THIRD LEG 4.52 WA time
FOURTH LEG 5.30 WA time
Magic Millions Perth 2YO Classic 1100m
Magic Millions Perth 3YO Classic 1400m
Penang Turf Club Trophy (0-79) 1800m
Handicap (3YO+, 0-79) 1400m
This is either an easy win for the unbeaten and very smart (2) The Corporation, or you play safe and include several possibilities to tie up the first leg. We favour the latter course. Include The Corporation, (1) Xaaravid, (4) Hallowell Express and (5) Wolfe Dreams. The other main chance looks like the unraced Blackfriars filly (10) Simply Mak, who led throughout to beat the smart Musket Fire by six lengths in a 1000m Ascot trial on Feb 2. Other hopes are rough, and include (6) Dino Mak (we can’t see him beating The Corporation on their last encounter) and (9) Lagobell, second at her first start after missing the jump. This looks harder for both. The Corporation was superb crunching Dino Mak here on Jan 31, but we believe there is significant improvement in Hallowell Express (all the way winner narrowly over Musket Fire), Wolfe Dreams (a strong all the way winner over Lady Xaar, and we love his pedigree), and the brilliant trial winner Simply Mak, and Xaaravid, a superbly bred gelding improving with each run.
What a ripper of a race, and what a conundrum for quaddie punters. We have some of the best of Perth’s 3YOs embarking on new campaigns – (11) Brava Fortune and (12) Exquisite Timing resuming, and (8) Saxon Palace, better suited here than in his first-up failure over 1000m on Jan 31. Then we have the promising (7) Prince Of Silk, who was outstanding coming from well back over the 1100m here on Feb 4. This regally bred colt will be better suited over the 1400m. If going wide, we would also include (1) African Action, (2) Almohad and (15) Valentine Miss. Exquisite Timing trialled brilliantly when second to Reflective Star over 1000m at Ascot on Feb 2. He won the Aquanita (1800m) with a strong rails finish (beating Saxon Palace) on Nov 28. Brava Fortune, winner of the Karrakatta (at 25/1) and Sires last autumn, has trialled twice, and was a soft fourth in the Reflective Star trial. There are many questions here, and our advice is to go wide, while making sure to include Prince Of Silk, Exquisite Timing, Brava Fortune and Saxon Palace.
Regular readers of this column will know that we have something of a love affair going with (1) Double Barrel, even though he has failed to deliver in his two runs at Ascot in January, after a dominant first-up win over the unsuitable 1200m at Bunbury on Jan 4. We’re sticking firm here, and we reckon that from barrier three, with only 3kg off the minimum, Double Barrel is as close to a good thing as we’ve seen for a long time. His fighting fourth to Brave Knight over 1600m here on Jan 31 was much better than it seemed, in a stop-start race that didn’t suit his strong staying style of racing. The stewards were also aware of his run: “DOUBLE BARREL was impeded for clear running in the early stages of the straight and raced tightly with another runner passing the 200m with the rider making slight contact with his whip to the arm of another rider shortly after.” The only other chance is (2) Shahbash, who was a strong winner twice over this trip (Dec-Jan), before a plodding sixth to the unlikely winner Kennedy over 1675m at Bunbury on Jan 26. Any odds are good for Double Barrel.
7,12,11,8 – 1,2,15
1 – 2 – 6,13
Here we go again – another good thing in a leg of the quaddie. Last week we went for (10) Phenomenons one out, only to see him scratched on race day. This is an easier affair and that makes him an even better thing, despite the 15 gate. Phenomenons has won his two starts from a 10-month spell in outstanding style. We particularly liked his win on Jan 31, when he came late and wide to murder a strong field over 1400m. He is a 3YO in older company, but he is a quality 3YO, and not many of the rest are going anywhere. You probably need to include some of: (7) Friartruck a strong first-up winner over 1200m here on Jan 10 (failed twice since), (9) Pete The Profiler, up in grade since his powerful win in a 0-73 over 1400m here on Jan 28, (11) Proud Falcon coming off four straight placings in similar company, (12) Kensingtontreasure, particularly on his win over Tudor Lad on Dec 20, (13) Aunty Winnie, powerful in weaker class last week, (15) Dvoryan, who has a strong staying career ahead of him, (16) Ma Chienne, a last-start winner here over 1400 (0-73). Without Phenonomens it’s one hell of a race.
2 – 1,4,5,10
FOCUS ON THIRD LEG
THE PLAYS
We’ve stuck with (1) Double Barrel in his two runs at Ascot in January, and we’re sticking strongly again, now that he’s out to 1800m. We think this 5YO gelding is ideally suited when the pressure is on, and we’re hoping that Taz Salleh will make advantage of the 2kg claim and ensure this is a truly run race. Double Barrel needs it that way, as he does not have a great turn of foot if the race is run at a muddling pace. We’re betting he won’t let us down, and will dominate this moderate lot.
$3.50
OUR FAVOURED BET
$75
FIELD/FIELD/1/10
10 – 12,15,11,7,13,16,9
2/7,12,11,8,1,2,15/1/10
$17.50 2,1,4,5,10/7,12,11,8,1,2,15/1/10 $75
FIELD/FIELD/1/10
$300
FIELD/FIELD/1/10,12,15,11
$600
FIELD/FIELD/1/10,12,15,11,7,13,16,9