Ascot, WA, January 31, 2009 FIRST LEG 3.26 WA time
SECOND LEG 4.05 WA time
THIRD LEG 4.45 WA time
FOURTH LEG 5.20 WA time
Chancery Star Sprint, (F&M), 1400m
See The Distance Hcp (0-86) 1200m
Westspeed Hcp (3YO), 1400m
Preened Hcp, (0-79) 1600m
A strong argument can be mounted for any of the nine runners here. Couple that with our natural conservatism with the first leg of any quaddie, and you can be sure we’ll be taking the FIELD here. The race is complicated by different formlines, highlighted by (1) Classic Drop’s string of wins at Geraldton – we find it hard to believe in far north form downtown. (2) Our Katarina’s recent form is ordinary, but we remember well her brilliant win in strong company here last March. (3) Feint, (4) Dance Across and (5) Galldora have recent winning form at Ascot, around hard to explain failures. (6) Obtrusive has a win and placing from three first up, and a similar record (last autumn) in this company. (7) Peppi’s Pride has been thereabouts since leading throughout to win easily at Mt Barker. We’d like to see her lead again, particularly with her light weight. (8) Princess Ebonyrose, comes from the east with two recent wins at Yarra Glen against lesser fields. (9) Tivation was stunning when coming from last, at big odds, to win at Bunbury (1400m) on Jan 15.
First look suggests that (6) On The Carpet is a standout, and analysis convinces us to stick to that belief. He was brilliant winning down the 1000m straight at Pinjarra on Jan 7, then showed great pluck to grab the classy Formal Attire on the wire over 1100m here on Jan 17. He has the outside gate, but has the speed to position well, and Pike. He’s the one, but … We have to consider (3) Lovely Lucy, a terrific onpace, hard-battling 2 nd to Electric General in Mt Barker’s big sprint (1300m) on Jan 18. We normally ignore Great Southern form, but that was one strong race (Keytomoney was 4th). Watch Electric General in the first to confirm the formline. (4) Princess O’Lara was terrific winning over 1200m here on Jan 1, then disappointed when 3rd to the bolter Feint over 1200m on Jan 17. (2) Broome Time was well beaten when third to On The Carpet last time. Two resume: (1) Halo Pass who has won 7/20 and has trialled once since last racing (March 2007); and (10) Lucasdemandas, a quality 2/3YO looked strong when third in a Belmont trial on Jan 19. He hasn’t raced since November ’06.
Another leg with a standout, which always causes us to shudder when we’re putting on the quaddie money… (2) Phenomenons was outstanding when resuming, dominating the quality performer Nollamara over 1100m at Ascot on Jan 17. That was his first run for 11 months, and although jumping to 1400m, he has the pedigree to handle the trip. We rated (8) Simplyirrestible very highly, when a first-up sixth to (3) Admiring over 1400m here on Jan 17. We’ll forgive that run, as we loved her form in her first preparation, although she could not win. She has a great finish. Admiring beat a strong field (at $14) first up in that event, and is a chance again. She showed potential in her first four runs, and has come back even better. (7) Jeverre has something of a boom on her, was well backed when an ordinary 7th first up to Admiring, but obviously has the ability. We can’t see (1) Bike Aaromba improving enough on 3rd to Phenomenons, but he has won 3/7. (10) Manila I Scream shouldn’t be allowed to win (poor names should never win), but he is on the edge. (11) Sudden City, an improver and has a rough hope.
We’re getting nervous, as we’ve come to another event with what we think is another standout – (1) Double Barrel has a terrific recent record, and an enormous future, and this is an event that has little real quality, or depth. Double Barrel showed great strength before a spell, and since. He won first up ($18) over the unsuitable 1200m at Bunbury on Jan 4, then had no favours, and kept giving, when 2 nd to Dance Across over 1400m here on Jan 17. We’re happy to rate him a good thing. (3) Rocky Range is a consistent performer in this grade, with a win and four minors from eight since resuming, all in similar company (5/21 in total). (5) Stramos and (2) Royal Cobra have excellent career records and moderate recent form. (8) Flythaiga came from well back when 2 nd to Tivation (who came from even further back) over 1400m at Bunbury on Jan 15. She has a good future ahead (1 win from 8), but this is better class. (4) Brave Knight won back to back here in April, but has been just okay since. His career record tells a story – 2 wins and 9 placings from 18. The rest are not for us.
6 – 3,4 – 2 – 1, 10
2 – 8, 3, – 7,1 – 10, 11
1 – 3,5,2 – 8 – 4
FIELD: 9,5,2,4,1,7,3,8,6
FOCUS ON 2nd, 3rd, 4th LEGS
THE PLAYS (50c unit)
Decisions, decisions. We love the obvious choices in the second, third and fourth legs – (6) On The Carpet, (2) Phenomenons and (1) Double Barrel – and we’d love to say outlay $4.50 (minimum) and take the field with three “good things” and sit back and enjoy. But we also know that over-confidence with the quaddie is about as dangerous as batting at the WACA without a helmet. We have to put some sense into the above, and our order of “good things” is Double Barrel, Phenomenons and On The Carpet.
$4.50 FIELD/6/2/1
OUR FAVOURED BET
$180
$27
FIELD/6,3,4,2,1,10/2/1
$45
FIELD/FIELD/2/1
$180
FIELD/FIELD/2,8,3,7/1
$315
FIELD/FIELD/2,8,3,7,1,10,11/1
FIELD/FIELD/2,8,3,7/1