Ascot, WA, February 7, 2009 FIRST LEG 2.55 WA time
SECOND LEG 3.31 WA time
THIRD LEG 4.11 WA time
FOURTH LEG 4.47 WA time
Stakes (Listed) 3YO+ 1200m
SKMRC-Challenge Stks (Listed) 3YO, 1400m
Loxam Hcp (3YO) 1820m
Priceline Pharmacy Hcp (0-79) 1200m
We reckon there are four major chances (1) Tarzi, (2) Keytomoney, (4) Formal Attire and (5) Hadabeclorka, with other ‘perhaps’ chances (3) Star Laser and (7) Lord Baumay. If we could forget the run of Keytomoney in the rich Mungrup Sprint (1300m) at Mt Barker on Jan 18, we would reckon he’s a good thing from barrier one. We can see him trailling the leader (Formal Attire), and ripping home at the end. The Mt Barker run was puzzling. Keytomoney (at $1.70), kept to the rails, was always under pressure, and never likely to challenge. This is harder, but his previous form was tremendous. Formal Attire has had two cracking runs after a twoyear spell, both at the front of the field. He led to the shadows when nabbed by subsequent winner On The Carpet over 1100m here on Jan 17. Will give a great sight. Tarzi is a marvellous galloper over slightly longer trips, but the small field will suit and we can see him rushing home. Hadabeclorka was amazing last summer, and although without wins in four starts in the spring, cannot be left out. Conservatives only will consider the rest.
The high-quality Giant’s Causeway colt (3) Phenomenons (2 wins from 3) is fit and well and in hot form, and we’re inclined to say ‘to hell with the rest, go with Phenomenons’!!! That’s what an aggressive quaddie punter would say, but we’ve seen plenty of those with patches in their ties. Smart players will have to include the good fillies (1) Locus Standi and (4) Cassandara Shadow and to a lesser extent (2) Danebeela. Phenomenons has been wonderful since resuming, winning from behind the lead first up, then dashing home wide out for a soft win over 1400m here last week. This is a colt with great promise. Locus Standi has a win and two placings in Stakes company at his past three, and any of those runs would dominate this field – except for Phenomenons. A filly giving weight to a quality colt, but must be included. Cassandara Shadow is another strong filly, racing well in the best company, and Danebeela, who won her first three and was a closing second to Hay List 2nd up on Jan 24 must be considered. The others are quality performers, but this is a grade above their potential.
This looks like the top three (1) Kim Coin, (2) Shajezar and (3) Admiring have the race to themselves, with (4) Lobbyist a hope, but rough. We’d be amazed to see any of the others – led by (5) Kaiser Crown – having any impact. Kim Coin is the likely leader, and has been impressive in his two recent runs up front – a well backed win over Hudson Hawk over 1500m here on Jan 10, and a fighting 2nd to Shajezar over 1600m on Jan 24. We prefer Shajezar again; he was terrific when 4th to Admiring over 1400m on Jan 17, then came with strength to beat Kim Coin. He loses Pike, but gains a 2kg claim with Noske. Not a bad swap. Admiring was superb first up ($14) beating Dominicano over 1400m here on Jan 17, then was nowhere when 8th to Phenomenons over 1400m last week. Distance will suit. Lobbyist had the run of the race, then four wide around the corner when a narrow winner over 1400m (0-64) at Bunbury on Jan 21. We love his pedigree. Kaiser Crown has been ordinary since beating Port Johnson here on Dec 24, failing behind Kim Coin and Shajezar since.
The only confident player coming into this leg is one who has most of the field covered. We reckon the following can win – (1) Dane Crusher, (2) Snip Esprit, (3) Friartruck, (4) Rocking The Blues, (6) Transaction, (7) Coronate, (8) Lucasdemandas, (9) Bundy Jack, (11) Kilkenny Jac, (12) Radiant Prince and (13) Xaar Boom. That’s 11 of the field of 13 – which really means smart players will go for the FIELD. The race is really impossible to pick: we have recent winners (Friartruck, Rocking The Blues, Bundy Jack, Transaction), quality runners resuming with good trial form (Snip Esprit, Radiant Prince), and the topweight, Dane Crusher, who has won 3 with 4 placings from 11. The other chances are promising, and must be included. Forced to make a selection, we’ll try Snip Esprit, resuming since June, but an easy trial winner at Lark Hill on Jan 24. He had a run of high-quality wins and placings in 3YO company last autumn. Friartruck and Rocking The Blues were strong winners in similar company in January, but…. It has to be the FIELD!
2,4,1,5 – 3,7
3 – 1 –4,2
2 – 1,3,4 – 5
Field or 2,3,4 – 6,7,12
FOCUS ON SECOND LEG
THE PLAYS
We know that (3) Phenomenons is jumping in class to listed company, but boy, we have been impressed with his two runs from a spell (2 wins from 2). He has been able to cope with whatever has been put before him to win, and we reckon he’ll do it again in this higher grade. The topweight (1) Lucas Standi comes off high quality racing in Stakes grade, but the filly must concede weight to the up and comer. All the other options are also filles against the promising colt. It’s Phenomenons, one out.
$12
2,4,1,5/3/2,1/2,3,4
$24
2,4,1,5/3/2,1,3,4/2,3,4
$90
2,4,1,5/3/2,1,3,4,5/2,3,4,6,7,8,11,12,13
$130
2,4,1,5/3/2,1,3,4,5/FIELD
$260
2,4,1,5/3,1/2,1,3,4,5/FIELD
OUR FAVOURED BET
$260
2,4,1,5/3,1/2,1,3,4,5/FIELD