Ascot, Perth, Saturday December 13, 2008 FIRST LEG 3.35 WA Time
SECOND LEG 4.15 WA Time
THIRD LEG 4.55 WA Time
FOURTH LEG 5.35 WA Time
Quarter Round Hcp, 1200m. 3YO C&G
King Kip Hcp (0-86) 2100m.
Starstruck Classic 1600m F&M
Flexi Staff Hcp 1400m (1MWLY)
Connections of the others (notably (2) Son Of Thunder and (3) Mega Mak) might disagree, but we’re happy to make this a match in two, topweight (1) Nollamara and the spruik horse (7) I’m Elite. Like most punters, we received the hot mail about I’m Elite, when a heavily backed favourite first up and a powerful second to Nollamara (1000m) at Ascot on November 29. I’m Elite had been dominant in two trials before his debut, and his first-up run was almost identical, other than the result. This is one powerful galloper, capable of overcoming trouble in running. He was unlucky on debut, a slow start costing him a position in the field. He also finished the race with his tongue over the bit. He has a great future. Nollamara is now five wins from six starts – can you do much better (?) and he fought back with great spirit when I’m Elite looked to have his measure at the top of the straight. With Alan Kennedy’s claim, he’ll carry 57.5kgs, but will meet I’m Elite 1.5kgs worse off – for a long neck. We’re happy to go one out with I’m Elite for most of our bet, with a little saver on Nollamara.
This is a moderate lot if ever we’ve seen one. It’s one of those fields that you assess one after the other as “Can’t win.” Then after another look, you add “Well, maybe it can.” There are three runners we’re happy to leave out altogether, even with the above proviso; they are (6) Original Lovalover, (8) Magical Gold and (9) Marine Drive. We have some respect for Marine Drive, but then we remember the day we thought he was a certainty at Toodyay and he couldn’t run down Interange. We’ll certainly be going wide in the quaddie, but we have to make a choice at the top, and that choice is (4) Rocky Range. The bold frontrunner was nailed on the line in the remarkable time of 1.34.03 (1600m) here last week, a run far beyond the quality of anything in this lot. He was also dominant winning over 1600m here three starts back. He’s never raced over the trip, but we’re backing Troy Turner to control the speed from the front, and hold any challenges. Hopes come from (2) Kanturk, (7) Gambero, (5) Observation and (10) My Becks. Include (3) Kiss A Dane and (11) Storm In The North for safety in numbers.
The formline for the Listed event for fillies and mares has to be the Jungle Mist (LR 1200m) and the Jungle Dawn (LR 1400m), events that put the focus on (4) Egatrice, (8) Rock My Pago and (11) Urlay Nook; add runners from the R.J.Peters (Gr3 1500m) and Perth Racing Mile (LR 1600m) and (1) Danecay and (2) Russian Playmate enter the equation. We’re keen on Rock My Pago, the Belmont Oaks (2000m) winner in June; her two runs from a spell have been outstanding, and in better company. Caught on the line by Spirited One in the Jungle Mist, she came from near last, via rails runs, for a fast finishing and close fourth to the same mare in the Jungle Classic. Egatrice, from barrier one, will get the run of the race, and is the hardest to beat. She was caught wide and grabbed late in the Jungle Dawn after racing near the lead. The run of the race will put her in the finish. Urlay Nook resumed in the Jungle Dawn, raced handily, and finished off well, to be just nutted for fourth by Rock My Pago. Suited from the gate. Include Danecay and Russian Playmate to cover all options.
We have a couple of punting biases that are almost untouchable. One is that we eliminate any runners eight years and over (Takeover Target excepted); the other is that form from the Great Southern Region doesn’t rate in Perth Metro. On those rules, we can eliminate more than 80 per cent of this field. Unfortunately, in this case that leaves us with (8) Eternalism, not suited by the distance, (9) Goldtown, ditto, and (11) Wingate Street, whose recent form is awful. Under the “how best to have a peace of mind approach to the last leg of the quaddie”, we’re suggesting the only safe way to tie up this leg is to include the FIELD! However, regular readers would remember that we were loath to leave out (4) Legend Express in much stronger company, when he finished 7 th of 9 behind Oroya Gold. He has a relative postage stamp of 53.5kgs in this, and will have a soft run in or near the lead. We wouldn’t push anyone to back him, but if he’s to win again in town, this is it. Goldtown, not seen in trials since a strong Goldfields formline in September, will finish powerfully, and should be included.
7 – 1 (3,2)
8,4 – 11, 1, 2 – 7,3
4 – 9, and the rest
FOCUS ON FIRST LEG
THE PLAYS
Aren’t we glad there is a standout in one leg, although, being a player who likes to be sure early in the quaddie, we’re wishing it wasn’t the first leg! That said, we reckon (7) I’m Elite is the best standout we’ve seen for a long time, and we’re happy to take him with an array of combinations in all the other legs. The second leg is either Rocky Range or any other, and we really want to have the field running for us in the last. Taking I’m Elite one out allows the keen player a multitude of options. Take them.
$55
7/4,2,7,5,10/8,4/FIELD
$60
7/4/FIELD/FIELD
$165
7,1/4,2,7,5,10/8,4,11/FIELD
$231
7,1/4,2,7,5,10,3,11/8,4,11/FIELD
OUR FAVOURED BET
4 – 2,7,5,10,3,11
$346 7,1,3/4,2,7,5,10,3,11/8,4,11/FIELD
$115.50 7/4,2,7,5,10/8,4/FIELD & 7/4/FIELD/FIELD