Ascot, Perth, December 20, 2008 FIRST LEG 3.35 WA time
SECOND LEG 4.15 WA Time
THIRD LEG 4.52 WA Time
FOURTH LEG 5.28 WA Time
Electrical Handicap (3YO 0-73) 1820m
Plumbing Handicap (0-79) 1200m
Country Challenge Final (3YO+) 1500m
Lawrence Handicap (0-86) 1400m
A race of moderates, which always causes a trembling sensation when such a race is the first leg of the quaddie. First glance suggests that (1) Le Bon Jeune’s powerful finish to beat Volcanic Causeway and Kereign over 1600m last week is the standout formline to indicate back-to-back wins; but then we note that the Jeune gelding rises 5 kg in the lower class. He is a galloper who likes summer in the West, with his four wins (three last year), all in October-December. We like him, but have to include the perennial set of “almost winners”, (3) Gondorff, (5) Mr D’Alton, (7) Neige, (10) Baltic Sea and (2) Aerial Muster. Three of Gondorff’s last four starts at Ascot have been in this class for two seconds, and a third, after winning at his second start in the West, over 1400m at Northam on Oct 8. His only other win was in a Kyneton Mdn, 2000m, May 29 (2007). Neige had all monies at the 200m before fading to second to Fire Of Denmark here on Dec 8, in lower grade. He now is fit enough, and can win. Baltic Sea won twice here (1100m and 1400m) last prep, but is unplaced in six this time in. Include the others.
Sigh, here we go again – another in which anything could win without surprising. Races like these make you thank the Lord that the Quaddie allows you to go wide, and this is one in which we’ll only be confident with F for FIELD written on our tickets. We had rated (8) Reassess in a higher class than these, but then he ran “crazy” when last on November 15, trialled well, and then had the cushy run but could not make ground when 5th to Chance In Time last week. Has the weight and barrier to win, but it’s fingers crossed. (12) Rose Of Dante led to the 100m in that event, and fought on very strongly for fourth, in a blanket finish. She’s only had six runs in the last 14 months, and with Pike up, and the likely lead, she might be the one. (2) Stramos took eight runs to win last time in, and he comes into this event with no trial form and first up since August. He has the ability, but … (7) Pumpkin Head showed early promise, faded, then is back with a vengeance. He gained a tight opening, and dashed through to win over 1200m last week, and this is no stronger, although the grade is higher. The rest: as many as you can include.
This looks much easier than the first two legs, which probably means it will be won by an outsider! We reckon the two promising kids of Danetime have the race in their hands – (4) Chance In Time, and (8) Star Of Danetime. Perhaps the barrier will tell the tale, with Chance In Time having the inside with Star Of Danetime out wide. Based on Chance In Time’s swooping run from last to win last week, the inside draw may not be as beneficial as it seems. He was strong, outstanding even, swooping to nail Peppi’s Pride in the last bounds last week. It was a replica of his win at Ascot on November 4. The 1500m suits, although this is only his second start beyond 1400m. Star Of Danetime had a soft win last week, in significantly lower grade, but could not have been ridden more confidently by Paul Harvey – he will need some magic from the wide draw, but the mare is promising. (3) Volcanic Causeway, grabbed on the line by the fast-finishing Le Bon Jeune last week, is in top form. It won’t help in the quaddie, but a good line to his chances will come from LBJ in race 5. (6) Peppi’s Pride surprised on pace last time..
At last one we like, and we’re prepared to go one out, to allow for the need to go wide, very wide in the earlier legs. (14) Grey Monarch appeals to us as a galloper with the potential to go through the grades. We can’t imagine any other runner starting 6/4 in the Belmont Guineas, and although Grey Monarch disappointed on that occasion, it’s the sort of endorsement we like for races like this. He looked a world beater when heavily backed and dominant first up at Belmont (1400m, 0-86) on June 7, and has “just gone” in five starts since. His two runs from a spell – both fourths – were good without being great, but although this grade is notionally less than his last run (behind Sporting Fella, Dec 6), we reckon it’s not as strong a field. Pike will have our hope in the box seat, one from the fence. We probably have to include (9) Lambton Castle, who finally showed something like what we expected when a strong winner over 1800m last week. He’s coming back in distance, but when he’s right, he can do anything in this grade. (8) Garavanni swooped over 1600m last time, after a great run in strong company – fourth to Tarzi on Dec 6
1,3,5,10 – 7,2
12, 8, 2, 7 – 1, 13, 5
4,8 – 3 – 6, 13 – the rest
14 – 9, 8 – 12, 13, 11, 6
FOCUS ON FOURTH LEG
THE PLAYS
If you’ve read this far, you’ll know that you’ll have to go wide, as wide as you can, in the first three legs, and then hold your breath for (14) Grey Monarch in the last. We’re basing our hopes on the grey on strong memories of his win on June 7, when he won like Phar Lap in similar grade. He’s been thereabouts in two runs back, and although without him, the last is a pin-the-tail job, we’re prepared to stick firm. If you’re flush, go wide in the first three, and have little savers on (9) & (8) in the last.
$24
1,3,5,10/12,8,2,7/4,8,3/14
$42
1,3,5,10/12,8,2,7,1,13,5/4,8,3/14
$63
1,3,5,10,7,2/12,8,2,7,1,13,5/4,8,3/14
$126
1,3,5,10,7,2/FIELD/4,8,3/14
$378
1,3,5,10,7,2/FIELD/4,8,3/14,9,8
OUR FAVOURED BET
$189
1,3,5,10,7,2/FIELD/4,8,3/14,9,8 (25c unit, or flexi 25%)