Ascot, WA, 21 March, 2009 FIRST LEG 3.50 WA time
SECOND LEG 4.25 WA time
THIRD LEG 5.05 WA time
FOURTH LEG 5.42 WA time
Raconteur Stakes (Listed, 3YO) 1500m
Natasha Stakes (Listed, 3YO F) 2200m
Hyperion Stakes (Gr3) 1400m
Craft Memory Hcp (0-79) 1200m
History vs Potential: that’s the story of this fascinating event. The conditions see the quality gelding (1) Revolition (4 wins from 9) giving upwards of 5 kilos to the up and comers (3) Henry De Horse (3 from 4), (4) Ballroom Crown (2 from 3), the spruik horse (7) I’m Elite, (5) Barn Burner and (9) Rosa Delago, who put themselves forward when placed behind Revolition in the $100,000 SW Breeders’ Plate (1400m) at Bunbury on March 10. That race is very difficult to assess, as Revolition was under pressure on the turn, after racing ungenerously. Courage got him home. Barn Burner came from near the rear with a rails run, and could not get clear room at the finish, and Rosa Delago would have won in another 20 metres. Must include all. Henry De Horse was dominant from the front over 1400m (0-67) here on March 4. Class rise here, but he has the potential; as does Ballroom Crown, who was near last to the turn, but came with a burst to win easily over 1200m on March 7, I’m Elite could not lead and faded, at $2.15, when last to Revolition. Big show on previous all-the-way win over 1300m at Pinjarra on March 1.
The last opportunity for the staying fillies to put their credentials forward before the WA Oaks. We reckon there are only four chances: (1) Brava Fortune, the best 2YO of last autumn and at her peak after three runs from a spell; (3) All Class, who was just that when beating (5) Flight Path in the 1000 Guineas (1800m) here on March 7; and (9) Delta Gee, whose only win was in maiden company, but must be included on her third to All Class last time. All have compelling cases, and all are drawn to get ideal runs. Brava Fortune was three deep the trip against the boys in the Roberts (1800m) here last week, and had the audacity to challenge at the 200m, before fading to 6th to Phenomenons. A great run, but must give weight to the others. Flight Path’s run was identical against fillies – three wide throughout, took the lead, cut down late. All Class had the perfect run behind the lead, and sprinted to win; and Delta Gee was back in the field, held up for running from the 500m to 250m, and finished very hard for third. The smart route is to include all four, with a slight preference to Brava Fortune.
Whenever he runs in WA (1) Marasco dominates pre-race discussions, and so he should. He returns from (for him) an unsuccessful summer campaign in which nothing seemed to go right in big races. He’s also in blinkers for the first time, and those who might think the Big M’s best is behind him should take those blinkers off. Fact is, he has won four Stakes races from his past 10 starts in WA, has won twice from five first up, and is 50-50 from 18 starts at Ascot. Under the WFA scale, he is far superior to any of his rivals, including the potential favourite, (6) Keytomoney, and (8) Hadabeclorka, coming off handicap form – they ran the quinella in the Bunbury Stakes (1400m) on March 10, but we look at this as a big rise in class. Suited in this sort of race are: (2) Tarzi, back throughout from a wide gate at Bunbury; (3) Royal Lott, getting on (he’s 8), but still with plenty to give; and (4) Oroya Gold, favourite and always well back at Bunbury. We were surprised by (9) Harvard’s strong win in the Pinjarra Classic (1300m), and reckon weight for age won’t suit.
(2) Follow The Road has raced seven times for three wins and four seconds. We reckon he’ll balance the ledger in the last, despite his wide gate, and some strong competition from (1) Dance Across (back after a freshen), (3) On The Warpath, who had all favours here over 1600m on Feb 28, and is not favoured by the shorter trip (trainer Fred Kersley could not find any other options in this grade), and (6) Dane Commodore, shooting for five straight after three straight at Bunbury, and a soft win over 1100m here on March 7. (9) Forever Generous has potential, but this is much tougher than his first-up win over 1100m (3YO 0-64) at Bunbury on March 12. He did have a shot at the WA Guineas last November. Follow The Road was tremendous winning over 1100m (0-79) here on March 7 – after being held up until late, he burst through when clear and was soft on the line. (4) Blizzard Ridge was runner-up in that event, and we can’t see him turning the tables, so strong was Follow The Road on the line. (13) Zoom Star, trialled well at Belmont on March 16, but is yet to win first up.
1,5,3,9 – 4
2 – 3, 6 – 1,13,9,4
FOCUS ON THE THIRD LEG 1,3,4 been – 7,5,9 We’ve in love with Marasco since that day at Ascot in April 2006 when he raced down the straight like a drunk, almost went through the running rail and still dominated. He has been the best galloper in the West since then, and despite doomsayers wondering whether his best is behind him, we reckon he’s over the line in this Group 3 race. He is so well in on weights against this lot, is suited first up (2 wins from 5), has an in-form jockey, and a trainer who knows his horse backwards. One out forever.
OUR FAVOURED BET
1 – 2,4,6,8 – 3,9
$105
THE PLAYS (50c unit) $6
1,3,4/1,5,3,9/1/2
$15
1,3,4,7,5,9/1,5,3,9,4/1/2
$58.50 FIELD/FIELD/1/2 $45
1,3,4,7,5,9/1,5,3,9,4/1/2,3,6
$105
1,3,4,7,5,9/1,5,3,9,4/1/2,3,6,1,13,9,4
1,3,4,7,5,9/1,5,3,9,4/1/2,3,6,1,13,9,4