FOCUS ON FOURTH LEG There is no doubt the key to how much you spend on this Big6 is the fourth leg, the Blamey Stakes, race 7. We are confident of Playwright winning, but remain wary of him until he proves he is back to winning form. We will take the risk on him if we feel we need to load up on other legs, particularly in leg five, as we are banking on Wilander one-out there. The other option is to load leg four with the seven chances we have outlined, and go narrow with Tindal and Imazeus in the first leg.
FORM A SYNDICATE
$1080
1,3,4,5,9 / 1,2,3 / 1,2,3,4,5,8,11,12 / 4,8,9 / 5 / 1,2,5
Flemington, March 14, 2009 FIRST LEG 2.10pm
ANALYSING THE BIG6 WITH thethoroughbred.com.au
SECOND LEG 2.50pm
THIRD LEG 3.30pm
FOURTH LEG 4.10pm
FIFTH LEG 4.50pm
SIXTH LEG 5.30pm
Mrs Mac’s Beef Pie Handicap (1400m) R4
Roy Higgins Quality (2500m) R5
Patinack Farm Stakes (1600m) R6
Blamey Stakes (SW&P, 1600m) R7
Bob Hoysted Handicap (1000m) R8
Family Day Handicap (1400m) R9
This is a very tricky race in which we need to cover our bases. There is no doubt that if (1) Tin dal runs to his best form – and he particularly likes this track and distance – he deserves top rating. He’s unbeaten in two starts at Flemington (his home track) and he’s a winner first-up, but there are others with chances. Certainly (3 ) Imazeu s, on the strength of his 2 nd to Dr. Doute’s over this course in the spring, is a serious threat. The in-form filly ( 4) Re d Fla ir has the pace to lead, which is a big advantage over this flat 1400m course at Flemington, and (5 ) Veewap was beaten by a classy horse at Ballarat following his effortless firstup win at Mornington. Happy to risk (8 ) Hu sson’ s Fortune from barrier 11, but not Peter Moody’s filly (9) Retur nto sender who was terrific when 4th behind the inform Champagne Harmony at Caulfield first-up on Feb 28.
Apart from the three horses at the top of the weights – (1) Ista Kareem, (2) Renewab le and (3 ) Grow l – this race is nothing more than a jumpers’ flat. So we won’t be including anything outside this trio. Ista Kareem made an encouraging return to form with a run-on third behind Zavite in the Group 3 Launceston Cup (2400m). He’s a noted wet-tracker who should get conditions to suit. Renewable deserves favouritism. He has had four runs from a break and each one was better. He was far too good for Fairygem at Moonee Valley (2500m) on Feb. 27, and he returns to his home track. Growl was a Cups contender in 2007, then went to Hong Kong, where he struggled to settle in, before returning late spring to David Hayes. He comes off a 5th behind Theseo in the G2 St. George Stakes (WFA 1800m) at Caulfield – he likes Flemington.
This is a good quality race for fillies and mares, and deserves its Listed rating. We need to go as wide as possible. Lee Freedman’s (4 ) Marchel le Bel le, a 3YO filly who is unbeaten in five runs this preparation, comes back from 2100m to 1600m after winning the G3 Tasmanian Oaks on Feb 22. She meets some pretty handy older mares close at the weights, so we must include: (1) Queen Of Queen s, who returned with a terrific second at Pakenham; (2 ) Prima Nova – ready for the 1600m; (3) Marveen – no luck last time and backing up; and ( 5) Dane Jul ia, the stablemate of Marchelle Belle, who was unlucky in he G3 Mannerism Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield. The improving (8) Fif th Avenue La dy is 3-6 over 1600m; (12) Mary D’Or will improve in blinkers and the wet; and (11) D ivine Re bel was good at Caulfield.
This a terrific edition of the Blamey Stakes, now entrenched in its new timeslot after the Australian Cup. We are temped to go oneout with ( 4) Playwright, a horse that has the ability to dominate this race, but like a lot of punters haunted by his spring flop, we remain wary until he finds last autumn’s great form. Tassie’s versatile star, (8) Conquering, returns to Melbourne with a picket fence of five next to his name. He’s a winner at Flemington and he can dictate his own tempo. Expect (9) T ime Ma tter s to find this easier than the G1 Futurity Stakes, and (1 0) Rock pec ker has won three from six here, and he loves the trip. (3 ) March ing hasn’t won for ages, but his G2 Carlyon Cup 2 nd to Time Matters was encouraging. (1) C’E st La Guerre goes in if you can afford it. ( 2) Orange Coun ty gets one more chance at 1600m.
This is the leg in which we gamble and go one-out on ( 5) Wilan der. We are taking the chance that trainer Lee Freedman has this colt right. Freedman toyed with taking him to Sydney for the G2 Challenge Stakes at Randwick, but after studying the fields, stayed home. While Wilander hasn’t won down the straight, his two runs have been very good for a race like this – second behind the smart Olonana (1000m) last September and a close fourth behind Scenic Blast in the G1 Lightning Stakes (WFA 1000m). His last run, 7th in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) was disappointing. This suits. Dangers are (4 ) Ha ppy Glen, who finished 13th in the Oakleigh Plate; (6) La Chasseuse, who loves the Flemington straight; and former smart Sydney 2YO (11) I Am Invin cible, now with Peter Morgan and an impressive Cranbourne trial winner last Tuesday.
We like one here at a bit of odds, the South Australian (5) Verco Road . The 5YO gelding has the impressive record of 19 starts, 7 wins, 8 placings. Importantly, he comes to Melbourne off a slashing first-up second behind Taos Pleasure in the Matrice Stakes (1200m) at Morphettville, when he blew the start and charged home. Verco Road is a late maturer by Rubiton and he loves rainaffected ground (5 wins from 10 starts). His dangers are (1) Falaise, who resumed with a good, honest win at Caulfield two weeks ago, and he’s drawn to get a gun run; and (2 ) Pinnacle s, who was placed in the G1 Doncaster Handicap (1600m) last autumn. He looks to be running back into form – and he’s a 1400m winner on this track. Of the rest, ( 8) Sound Journey, (9) The Wolverine and (4 ) Fast Fu ture have claims.
1, 3 – 4, 5, 9
1, 2, 3
4 – 8, 9 – 1, 2, 3, 10
5 – 4, 6, 11
5 – 1, 2 – 4, 8, 9
4, 12 – 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11