FOCUS ON THE THIRD LEG The Blue Diamond Stakes has divided opinions. Is it the colt Real Saga, or is it the filly Rostova? Or can Come Hither knock them both off? If you have a firm opinion of this race, then it should be your “banker” leg, and allow you to stretch wider in some of the other difficult legs, especially the last leg.
FORM A SYNDICATE
Caulfield & Rosehill, February 21, 2009 FIRST LEG 2.50pm
$1350
1,2,4/1,7,13, 14,16/ 1,7,8/ 9,10,11/ 1,5, 11,12/ 3, 7,9,11,13
ANALYSING THE BIG6 WITH thethoroughbred.com.au
SECOND LEG 3.30pm
THIRD LEG 4.10pm
FOURTH LEG 4.30pm
FIFTH LEG 4.50pm
SIXTH LEG 5.10pm
D’Urban Stakes (1400m) R5 Caulfield
Oakleigh Plate (1100m) R6 Caulfield
Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) R7 Caulfield
Winning Edge Classic (1400m) R7 Rosehill
Carlyon Cup (1400m) R8 Caulfield
Triscay Stakes (1200m) R8 Rosehill
The registered name of this race is the Autumn Stakes, the major lead-up for the best 3YOs into the Group 1 Cadbury Australian Guineas in a fortnight. While there are some pretty handy 3YOs going around at Caulfield, three stand out as A-Graders, and they will be the backbone of the first leg of this Big6. In order of preference they are (2) Fravash i and (4 ) Niccon i, sharing equal billing on top, ahead of (1) Von Costa De Hero. All three competed at the last Caulfield meeting on Feb. 8, when Nicconi won the Listed Wellington RC Stakes (1400m) while Fravashi was a terrific fourth after nearly falling at the start. Von Costa De Hero was ridden aggressively on the pace to finish a game fifth behind Maldivian in the WFA Group 1 Orr Stakes (1400m). (3) Dr Do ute’ s and (6) Heart Of Dream s are the next best, but they might be a run short.
A typical Oakleigh Plate, with many chances, particularly down in the weights. Because of the handicap conditions, this is usually a good race for lightly-weighted 3YOs, and this is no exception with (1 3) Wilan der and (16) F ist Of Fury serious contenders. There is some strong pace out wide from (3 ) Luc ky Secret and the Queenslander (9) Sw iss Ace, while Wilander also will press forward. We will be looking for strong finishers, and we’ll be going wide. We’d love to include the FIELD. Our top selection is Fist Of Fury, an exciting Sydney colt who has been primed for this race – first-up – by John O’Shea. He was an impressive worker here on Tuesday. (14 ) Red E lement was strong late winning here on Feb. 8, and he’s right up to winning this. Damien Oliver on (7) Stanzou t is a significant booking. (1) Sce nic B last has the class and form.
This promises to be a most exciting race, with the potential of a battle between the best colt (1) Real Saga and the best filly (7) Ro stova. Both are outstanding, unbeaten 2YOs and either would be a worthy winner of this Group 1 feature. Rostova promises to be a filly of the highest class, while Real Saga is strong, mature and very workmanlike. Rostova has the advantage of a better draw (6 compared to 11), but Real Saga has Damien Oliver at the height of has powers. If there is a danger to these two it will come from Lee Freedman’s filly ( 8) Come Hit her, who is expected to improve vastly on her Flemington first-up win, and with the aid of blinkers; (9 ) Corsaire has some hope, off a first up 2 nd to Rostova on Feb. 9. Gamble on these four, but if you need to be tight, then stick with Rostova and Real Saga.
The return of the Melbourne Cup winner (1) V iewe d highlights this race, and don’t be surprised if he runs a very cheeky race fresh, particularly with the likelihood of a heavy track (heavy 8 on Friday). The conditions forced the Hawkes family of trainers to send ( 5) Menta lity to Melbourne. This leaves only three weight-forage winners in this substandard running of the “G2 Apollo Stakes” – ( 8) Tue sday Joy, (9) Galla nt Te ss and (10) Hurr ied Choice. Our preference is for the 3YO (11) De suetu de in what has become a very tricky race. This colt is high-class, very fit and although 3YOs don’t have a great record in the race (last colt to win was Key Dancer in 1990), the filly Ha Ha won the race in 2002, beating much stronger company than Desuetude meets here. Gallant Tess is a WFA winner in the mud, and Hurried Choice likes this track.
If you are looking for a banker for your Big6, then this is not your race. So, in an effort to narrow this tricky race down to a handful of chances, we are going for those who will be suited by the set weights and penalties conditions. Top of that list is the topweight (1) Menta lity who was rushed to Melbourne because of the big wet in Sydney. Mentality is proven at WFA (3 wins) and Group 1 level, and he gets in very well here with 57.5kg. (5) Playwr ig ht was encouraging when fourth behind Red Element (who could win the Oakleigh Plate) first-up here on Feb. 8. In the 2008 autumn, he showed he was a serious Group 1 class horse, but he didn’t fire in the spring. This looks ideal. (11) Barl inn ie was good here on Feb. 8 over this course, (12 ) Time Ma tter s is in rare form, ( 8) Rok Po sta, (13) Silky Smoo th and (1 4) El Man don all have claims.
If the early markets are any guide – $8 the field – then this is not the race to try to narrow things down. But we will try, and the prospect of a slow/heavy track might give us the edge here. Our top picks all have good wet track form, starting with (3) Hairy, who backs up from her luckless run last week at Randwick behind Marchinski. Back against her own sex here, and she likes both the track and soft ground. (7) Ne diym s Dream chased home Hot Danish in a recent trial and she goes well fresh. (9) Ca jou likes the wet and the track, and she comes off a luckless third behind the in-form Rock Me Baby here on Jan. 31. Expect (11 ) Maybe I to run well fresh for Gai Waterhouse – she hasn’t raced since the G1 Flight Stakes in the spring and she has won on heavy ground. (13) Moon danc in g comes from Melbourne unbeaten on slow/heavy ground and she’s in the stable of Peter Moody.
2, 4 – 1 – 3, 6
16, 14, 7 – 1, 13 – FIELD
1, 7 – 8 – 9
11 – 9, 10 – 8, 6, 1
1, 5 – 11, 12 – 6, 8, 13, 14
3, 11 – 7, 9, 13 – 2, 1