FOCUS ON THE FIRST LEG If you are concerned that taking only two horses in the fourth leg, the Coolmore Classic, is too risky, and you want to add more to cover your bases, the race in which you can reduce to offset that is the first leg. We have included the four top chances, but there is a strong argument that two will fight this out, (1) Melito and (6) More Joyous. Include (1) Viewed as a cover for the one-out pick (2) Theseo in the third leg, if you can afford it.
FORM A SYNDICATE
$1120
Rosehill, March 21, 2009 FIRST LEG 2.10pm
1,3,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,9 / 2 / 1,13 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,5,6,7,9
ANALYSING THE BIG6 WITH thethoroughbred.com.au
SECOND LEG 2.50pm
THIRD LEG 3.30pm
FOURTH LEG 4.10pm
FIFTH LEG 4.50pm
SIXTH LEG TIME
Perfect Vision Ilasik Stakes (1200m) R4
Myer Canterbury Stakes (WFA 1300m) R5
Ranvet Stakes (WFA 2000m) R6
Coolmore Classic (1500m) R7
Phar Lap Stakes (1500m) R8
Star Kingdom Stakes (1100m) R9
The registered name of this Group 2 2YO scamper for fillies is the Reisling Stakes, one of the key lead-ups to the Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes (1200m) in a fortnight. It’s worth noting that only five Reisling winners have gone on to win the Slipper, so it is nowhere near the most important guide. Even so, this year it showcases the Slipper pre-post favourite (6) More Joyous, who bucked-jumped her way out of the Group 2 Silver Slipper Stakes (1100m) here on Feb 28, and needs to win to get in to the Slipper. This race looks a battle between More Joyous and the Silver Slipper victor (1 ) Mel ito, who is a big, rangy filly who keeps improving with each start. Melito has drawn barrier one, and is likely to be trailing More Joyous, who is expected to ping to the lead. For those wanting to include others, add ( 3) Co lour and (5) Sun day Ro se.
A Group 2 race for weight-forage sprinters, and an ideal lead-up for Group 1 races The Galaxy and the T.J. Smith. Surprisingly, there is a distinct lack of on-pace speed in this race, which could make it awkward for some back runners. Expect ( 5) Royal Discre tion and (6) Murta jill to push forward with (1 0) Norther n Meteor. Northern Meteor ran a slashing first-up fourth in the Group 1 Newmarket Hcp (1200m) at Flemington – his condition gave out in the last 150m. He’s going into this race a lot fitter, and if he can hold the fence from barrier 1, he should be too good. Slot stablemate Royal Discretion in for second, and respect Murtajill. Of the runon horses, the crack mare (9) Forensics has the best turnof-foot and she has trialled brilliantly. Consider stablemate (4 ) El Cam bio .
This is the leg in which punters can gamble on a middle-pin standout. (2) T heseo is odds-on to win and this looks his race. He wasn’t at his top when he was beaten a nose by Niconero in the Group 1 Australian Cup (WFA 2000m) at Flemington, but if he is in the form that saw him dominate the Group 2 St George Stakes (WFA 1800m) at Caulfield at his previous start, then he should lead and win. The only negative about Theseo is the fact that he has failed to win in five starts at Rosehill. The only danger looks to be a fit and ready (1) V iewe d, who has run two slashing fourths – in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes (WFA 1400m) at Rosehill and the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (WFA 1600m) at Randwick – since winning the Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) in the spring.
1 – 5, 6, 9 – 4
2–1
The class will rise to the top in this excellent edition of the Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes. On a pure examination of form, the brilliant (1) Whobego tyou would normally be a standout selection, but he goes into this race second-up after an interrupted campaign, and races for the first time righthanded. It’s enough to save on three others who have the class and talent to win this race, especially the brilliant Group 1 Cadbury Guineas winner (4 ) Heart Of Dream s, and two horses that are muchmaligned (2) Du porth and (3) Von Costa De Hero. Whobegotyou won’t be troubled by barrier 13 because he needs galloping room, but Heart Of Dreams has drawn a perfect position in barrier 7. Duporth loves Rosehill and drops back to his own age from the Newmarket, and Von Costa De Hero has finally drawn a decent gate.
The last and the toughest leg of this Big6 has a heap of speed, so even those who like to race back should have their chance. The speed will come from (3 ) Burdek in B lues, (7) Believe’n’Su ccee d, ( 8) Disc ip line d and (11) Mount Verde, with Burdekin Blues and Believe’n’succeed the winning chances of that bunch. Burdekin Blues was sent out a false $7.50 favourite in the Group 1 Newmarket Hcp (1200m) at Flemington after winning the Group 2 Expressway Stakes (1200m) here. He’ll find this more suitable than the Flemington straight track. Believe’n’succeed is a very smart 3YO filly from the allconquering Mark Kavanagh stable. The run-on horses to include are (1) T he Jac kal, (2) Posa das, (5 ) B lack Pr ince, (6) Royal Esprit and (9) Kilo ton.
1, 6 – 3, 5
Our feeling is that despite the history of the Coolmore Classic – since 1994 eight winners have been priced between $11 and $21 – the favourites hold the key to this year’s race. The wonderful mare (1 ) Ho t Danish, carrying 59kg, will be aiming to be the fourth highest weighted winner of the race – only champions Sunline (60kg, 2000 and 2002) and Emancipation (60kg, 1984) have won with more, and we believe Hot Danish possesses both the class and courage to do so. Hot Danish has the imposing record of 10 wins from 14 starts. Last year she lumped 57kg when second to (3) E sk imo Queen, but she has improved dramatically since then. Second pick is the lightweight 3YO filly ( 13) Typhoon Tracy (51kg), who is unbeaten in four starts, and is rated a star by her trainer, Peter Moody. She has the speed to overcome barrier 17.
1, 13
1, 4 – 2, 3
3, 7 – 1, 2, 5, 6, 9