CAULFIELD PREVIEW October 17, 2009 CAULFIELD CUP (2400M) Race 8, 4.05pm (Melbourne time) There are two ways to approach this year’s Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) – it is either going to be dominated by the top class internationals Cima de Triomphe and Kirklees or you ignore that northern hemisphere form and stick with what you know. The Godolphin team rate Kirklees as better than All The Good, who last year gave them their break through Group 1 win in Australia. Luca Cumani believes Cima de Triomphe is superior to any horse he has brought to Melbourne, and he has left his mark by training the runners-up in the past two Melbourne Cups – Bauer (2008) and Purple Moon (2007). The Cumani camp will be buoyed by the fact that Purple Moon (6th behind Master O’Reilly in the 2007 Caulfield Cup) and Mad Rush (4th behind All The Good last year) were both unlucky not to win. Jockey Damien Oliver (who rode Mad Rush) said Cima de Triomphe is a stronger horse than Mad Rush and has a better form line. Oliver came away impressed with the grey in track work on Tuesday when he came home his last 600m at Sandown in 37.5 seconds on the bit. The Oliver factor – he has won the CC four times – and Cima de Triomphe’s pedigree and performance suggest he will be at his best at 2400m, has me leaning towards an international win. However, I don’t believe Kirklees is the danger, despite the fact he has won three Group races (two G3 and one G2) at his past three starts. Whereas Cima de Triomphe shapes as a genuine Group 1 horse, Kirklees
SPEED MAP Predicted positions on settling
(outside Italy) looks best placed below that level. I think the danger, and I nearly tipped her on top, is the New Zealand mare Daffodil. Last season, she showed her class by winning the Group 1 AJC Oaks (2400m, Randwick) in brilliant style, and since then she has performed exceptionally well at weight-for-age in New Zealand. She was unlucky not to win the Group 1 Kelt Capital Stakes (2040m) at Hastings at her last run and she drops 4kg in the Caulfield Cup. Jockey Chris Munce is the perfect big-race rider for Daffodil, and he will be able to give the mare the perfect run from barrier 3 (after emergencies come out). Importantly, eight of the past nine mares to win this race have been 4YOs, and seven of those either won an Oaks, a Derby or were placed in an Oaks. I expect Vigor to run a very cheeky race despite the fact he is coming from the widest draw. Look for jockey Corey Brown to ride him aggressively, a la Mummify (barrier 13) in 2003, thanks to a lightweight (51kg). Viewed, Red Ruler, Master O’Reilly and Harris Tweed have claims. The tips: Cima de Triomphe just ahead of Daffodil (back both) and then Vigor, Kirklees, Master O’Reilly and Viewed.
TEMPO – GOOD Caulfield Cups are rarely run at a dawdle. Look for Zavite, Red Ruler or Vigor to take up the running. As usual, there will be a mad scramble early. My major concern with Predatory Pricer is the fact his wide barrier will test the skill of jockey Steven King.
AND ALSO The Caulfield Cup has nine support races, so the least And Also can do to help you fill in time either side is to suggest something to spend on ... This column is a sucker for a good horse, and there are plenty going around. Race 6, the Harrolds Stakes (1400m), has more than its share, led by the “almost superstar” mare – back in the old days “star” would have been sufficient adjectivally – Hot Danish. From gate 7 she won’t have to drop out and be set a mission impossible as she was at Flemington earlier this month so, if you can get $3, load up on her running down Typhoon Tracy and holding off Neroli. The one “if” is the going – if it is worse than a dead 5 wait for another day for this Hot tip. Shamoline Warrior (R4) is shaping as Mark Kavanagh’s next staying star, his Flemington win putting him in And Also’s “good horse” category. If he is going to win the Derby, he has to win the Norman Robinson (2000m). That makes the $3.50 value. The sprint (R9, 1100m) has Phelan Ready – we thought he was a good horse earlier this year, changed our mind earlier this campaign, then reassessed on looking at the Manikato Stakes replay. He drops from G1 to G2. If we’ve got it right, he’s value at $7.50. The Cup? Unless Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees actually are what their northern hemisphere record says they are, it is a raffle. If you have to have a bet And Also advises that you roll along with Bart and back one of his trio (Viewed, Roman Emperor, Allez Wonder). He’s due – 1991 was his last. Stephen Howell