FLEMINGTON PREVIEW October 31, 2009 VICTORIA DERBY (2500M) Race 6, 2.55pm (Melbourne time) This year’s Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby might have attracted a small field of 11 starters, but there is very good depth in the race without the presence of an acknowledged star 3YO like a Whobegotyou, Elvstroem, Helenus or Efficient. But who knows, history might show this to be a vintage Derby – only time will tell. There are three distinct form lines clashing this year, which makes it a little difficult to line up. On face value, the strongest lead-up is the G2 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield, especially after the first two home in last week’s G2 AAMI Vase (2040m) at Moonee Valley – Hanks and Spacecraft – are not running in the Derby. The other important lead-up is the Listed Geelong Classic (2200m, Geelong) – the old Geelong Derby Trial – which under normal circumstances is a race for the “underlings” and one to be wary of as a guide to the Derby – no Classic winner has won the Derby – but this year’s race looks to have been a strong one featuring the exciting prospect, Rockferry, who came in a luckless third, the same placing last year’s Derby winner Rebel Raider filled in the Classic. I have been in the Shamoline Warrior camp all season but I am tipping Rockferry to beat him, but only just. I will be more than happy to be on both and just as pleased if Shamoline Warrior can win. What swayed me was the barrier draw – Rockferry two and Shamoline Warrior nine. Rockferry’s barrier puts
SPEED MAP Predicted positions on settling
him in perfect position to be midfield on the fence in what I expect to be a genuinely run Derby. On the other hand, jockey Michael Rodd’s choice is limited. If he goes forward with such a short run to the first turn, then he might have to do a fair bit of work to get in with horses like Gathering, Onemorenomore, Viking Legend and Prinsom all drawn inside him and all likely to rush forward. Rodd will go back and he also is likely to have to be the first one to make his move. Expect Rockferry, who has a slick turn of foot like his brother Xcellent possessed, after a soft ride from Hugh Bowman, will be able save ground and sprint quickly. This will be an enthralling dice to the line and may the best horse win. There are other chances. I was impressed by the way Viking Legend recovered from a flat spot on the turn to finish third behind Hanks in the Vase. He’s by a Derby winner in Elvstroem and trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has won a Derby with Nothin’ Leica Dane. Viking Legend will run the trip and he will get a nice run tracking the Patinack-owned pair Gathering and Onemorenomore. At double figure odds, he’s overs. The lightly-raced Kiwi Our Heir Apparent ran a terrific race in the Geelong Classic – he came from well back, wide and hit the lead too soon. He’s inexperience, but a raw talent and Craig Williams will ride him well. Onemorenomore would be rated higher if I knew he’d settle in the run. The tips: Rockferry, but only just from Shamoline Warrior, Viking Ruler, Monaco Consul and Our Heir Apparent.
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AND ALSO Derby day is the ultimate ‘good horses’ day, jam-packed with G1, G2 and G3 races, so no-namers should not fall through the cracks to spoil the punt. Unfortunately, this does not guarantee that all winners will come from the top fancies, but it does mean those at longer odds will have shown some talent in the not-too-distant past, be it in Melbourne or on an interstate track. The trick is finding what exactly is the value from that exposed talent. As an urger of long-standing, And Also offers these: Light Vision (R2, No 1): this is his grand final, connections admitting after the Caulfield Cup that he is not up to major Cup class. Bu he can give this a shake around the $8 mark. Scenic Shot (R5, No. 5): satisfactory run in the Cox Plate and is a group 1 winner who goes well over the Flemington 2000m. Also around the $8 mark. Zarita (R7, No. 1): she’s up against a couple of And Also’s favourites (Typhoon Tracy and Hot Danish), but is a Group 1 winner and last time she was in a mares’ race (the 1600m G2 Stocks, MV) she poked her nose through a pack to beat Cats Whisker. $14 looks to be overs. Absolutelyfabulous (R8, No. 9): the last-start Cameron winner at Newcastle who has run some slashing races, and Kris Lees doesn’t bring a horse to Melbourne just to have a runner. Another who looks value at $14 in yet another tough race. Get one of these up and you’ve had a good day while watching great racing. Stephen Howell