ea 02 2015 by GLOBSEC Academy Centre

2/2015

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS I SECURITY AND DEFENCE

NATO STILL RELEVANT?

Interview with Jaroslav Naď Time to Forge a European Defence Union by Steven Blockmans Is NATO Still Willing and Ready to Defend Europe's Eastern Border? by Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp

in this issue 4

headlines

interview with Jaroslav Naď

Is NATO Still Willing and Ready to Defend Europe’s Eastern Border?

in depth Is NATO Still Willing and Ready to Defend Europe’s Eastern Border? by Dr Heinz-Kamp The Future Role of NATO: Reinventing the Alliance? by Trine Flockhart

Hungary’s Jobbik Success after a Face-Lift

Forgotten Lessons by Niels Frederik Malskær

visegrad news

EU insight

leadership

Ambassador´s advice

opinion poll

op-eds

quiz

calendar

Counterinsurgency an Option in Fight 28 IsAgainst Boko Haram?

30 Elections as Insecurity Providers 2

editorial

Mikuláš Virág Editor-in-Chief Herbert George Wells wrote: “If we don’t end war, war will end us.” This was the spirit in which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was founded sixty-six years ago by countries who longed to live in peace with the rest of the world. Necessity is the mother of invention though, and one of the key reasons behind the birth of the Alliance was the need to keep the ever-growing behemoth of the Soviet Union at bay. However, it has already been twenty-five years since the downfall of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, and so, today, we have every reason to ask ourselves the question: Is NATO still relevant? If in past years we took peace and security on the European continent for granted, and the possibility of an armed conflict seemed distant or downright impossible, today we know better. The annexation of Crimea and the hybrid war waged by

Russia in Ukraine has changed our perception of peace, and confirmed that NATO has definitely not lost its place and purpose in the world even after the demise of the Warsaw Pact. The propaganda emanating from the Kremlin cannot change that. Despite Russia’s formidable efforts in the information war waged on the “online fronts”, the reasons why we need NATO today are ample and strong. The Kremlin propaganda maintains that the Alliance threatens Russia and that it should have been disbanded after the Cold War ended. But why back then? And why today? At the 1990 NATO summit in London, the country leaders declared the intention to „keep standing together to extend the long peace we have enjoyed these past four decades“. Since then, twelve other states have decided to join the fellowship of the collective defence. The main reason for NATO’s relevance today is that it provides defence to those sovereign states, which cannot provide it to themselves on their own to the required extent. If it were not for the Alliance, what pressure, what aggression would the Baltic countries have to face today, considering that Russia did not hesitate to annex Crimea – a territory which belonged to much larger Ukraine? Naturally, this is a merely hypothetical question, but the fact remains that every single nation of NATO, whether it is 2 million of Latvians or the 80 million people of Germany, can rest easy knowing the country can confidently rely on the Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. Russia’s rationalizing its steps as a reaction to NATO’s threatening expansion seems to deliberately ignore the events of the past twenty-five years. NATO never treated Russia as a poten-

tial threat, but rather accepted it as a partner, and attempted to lay foundations for a cooperative relationship. This privileged position which Russia occupied as a non-member state was repeatedly confirmed at joint summits in Rome and Lisbon. We should bear in mind that summit declarations are no empty promises, as they represent NATO’s official policy, which was most recently formulated at the Wales summit in September 2014: “The Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia, but it would not compromise on the principles on which the Alliance and security in Europe and North America rest.” Russia does not have to fear any of NATO’s member states, current or future, as every entering state is required to accept principles and the policy of the Alliance, which include the non-threatening attitude towards Russia. Does this, however, apply the other way around? President Putin said that “No one should have the illusion that they can gain military superiority over Russia, put any kind of pressure on it. We will always have an adequate answer for any such adventures”. If Crimea was supposed to be Putin’s “answer” to someone’s deluded “adventures”, then we do not really have to think twice about the question whether NATO is still relevant. Dear readers, I am happy that once again you found your way back to our webzine, and I sincerely wish that you enjoy reading it. The editorial board of the Euro-Atlantic! think.act.lead. is already preparing a special issue at the occasion of the tenth anniversary of GLOBSEC Bratislava Global Security Forum. If you wish to contribute to it with an article of your own, please do not hesitate and contact us.

headlines

Dzurinda to Become Turmoil in Yemen European Commission Poroshenko’s Advisor Unveiled the Energy a Regional Conflict Union Package

Turned into on Reforms Former Prime Minister of Slovakia Mikulas Dzurinda has agreed to become the advisor to the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. He has decided to join the team of Poroshenko’s foreign advisors – International Advisory Council on Reforms. Led by Georgia’s ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili, the advisory body has sought (since its February establishment) to recruit experienced politicians from Central and Eastern Europe, specifically those ones who had been previously pushing forward political and economic reforms in their own countries. The council has a consultative character, and, in Poroshenko’s words, its main task is to elaborate “proposals and recommendations on the implementation of reforms in Ukraine taking into account the best international experience”. Moreover, it focuses on the reformation of the Ukrainian legislation and aims at increasing the level of international support to Ukraine. Recalling the time of crucial reforms that were undertaken in Slovakia during his prime minister term in the early 2000s, Dzurinda is aware of similarities between both cases and, in this regard, considers the story of Slovakia’s transition as a source of inspiration for Ukraine. “Ukraine [also] wants to be part of the West, and is in need of major modernisation. It needs to export, not only import, thereby increasing its competitiveness. It’s in the major interest for my homeland to have a stable, peaceful and predictable neighbour in Ukraine,” Dzurinda underscored.

Sectarian strife is becoming entrenched in a growing number of Muslim countries, most visibly threatening to fracture Iraq and Syria. Tensions behind the Sunni-Shia divide have spread to a “new battlefield” – Yemen. In recent months, the poorest country in the Middle East has descended into conflicts between several different groups, pushing the country to the edge of a civil war. For more than a decade the Houthis, a Zaidi Shia minority from the north of Yemen, have been fighting against the government. Their insurgency has steadily gained steam and it peaked at the beginning of 2015 when they seized the capital of Sanaa while ousting President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi from the office. Hadi, recognized as Yemen’s legitimate leader by the international community, was put under house arrest, but later on managed to escape to Aden, which he declared a new capital. After rebel forces came very close to Aden in late March, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia responded to a request by Hadi to intervene, and launched air strikes on Houthi targets. The coalition comprises five Gulf Arab states and Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and Sudan. Gulf Arab states have accused Iran of financial and military support of the Houthis. In this light, the ongoing conflict has another fundamental dimension – it is a regional power struggle (some have even labelled it as a proxy war) between Shiaruled Iran and Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with Yemen.

Among ten priorities of the EU agenda for 2015 set up by Jean-Claude Juncker’s team is “a resilient Energy Union with a forward-looking climate change policy”. A framework strategy for the Energy Union was introduced by European Commission vice-president Maroš Šefčovič at the end of February. Šefčovič called it “the biggest energy project since the Coal and Steel Community.” The proposed energy plans aim to improve infrastructure in order to share available supplies across borders, partly with EU money; to end regulated pricing, increase the number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, and enforce existing EU law on competition. Considering the project’s future viability, experts have mentioned that it depends on the follow-up of the current plan, which is marked by inconsistencies such as the lasting reliance upon fossil fuels for energy security despite its pledging to move towards renewables. At the same time, their remarks have also directed attention to the simple fact that national energy policies within the EU differ. National governments watch their own control over the energy decisions, mainly because of their strategic needs and their stance towards the environment. This can be a problematic thing for some of the EU countries leaders. A case in point is the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, who has already challenged the Commission and vowed not to surrender sovereign national powers over country’s energy policy. His statement had come before the EU blocked Hungary’s €12bn nuclear deal with Russia about building two 1,200 megawatt nuclear reactors in the town of Paks.

by daniel tichý

Over 40 Countries US Military Convoy Israeli Elections: joined the China- Rolled through Netanyahu Swept

led Asian Bank

Central and Eastern Europe

A new layer has been added to the U.S.-China strategic rivalry since a growing number of America‘s allies, including the UK, Australia, Germany, France, or South Korea (but excluding Japan and Canada), have expressed an interest in joining the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). AIIB is a new international financial institution, for the first time in history essentially led by China, the world’s largest goods trader. It has about $50bn in capital, which is a fifth of what the World Bank holds and also less than the Asian Development Bank. Nevertheless, to many experts AIIB represents a clear challenge to these hallmarks of Western dominated global financial order. Together with other recently launched projects, such as Silk Road infrastructure fund or new “BRICS” bank, China has underpinned its ambitions to build an alternative financial architecture, and, in broader sense, to take a more proactive role in its intended plan to set up new multilateral global institutions. The Economist has described China’s motivation to pursue the above-mentioned projects as “apparent frustration at the failure of the existing international order to accommodate its astonishing rise”. However, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde has said the IMF would be “delighted” to co-operate with AIIB. In the meanwhile, North Korea’s application to become the founding member was turned down because the country had not provided detailed information on its economy and financial market; the rejection of the Taiwanese one has signalled that the bank might be influenced by China’s political priorities.

A convoy of US military vehicles has toured through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and the Czech Republic to show NATO’s readiness to defend its members. The convoy was a brainchild of Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, commander of American forces in Europe, who conceived it in order to reassure the region of America’s will to uphold its defence commitments in a tangible way. Convoy opponents were outnumbered by those who came to cheer the troops, even in the Czech Republic where such a popular reception of the “Dragoon Ride” was not expected. Along the route, crowds of Czechs welcomed the soldiers with cans of beer. An American corporal Tristan Miller noted that the convoy’s reception in the Czech border-town of Náchod was the largest it had received anywhere. “It’s been amazing, probably the highlight of my military career so far,” Miller added. The move came shortly after the first anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, with tensions between the Kremlin and the West remaining high over the conflict in Ukraine. It is worth noting that the Baltic states have repeatedly voiced the fear that they could be the next should the friction between the West and Russia continue to deepen. As a result, Lithuania, which borders with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, has announced restored mandatory military service for young men. “The geopolitical situation has changed and the professional service does not receive as many soldiers as Lithuania needs,” said General Jonas Vytautas Zukas, Lithuania’s Chief of Defence.

to Victory

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party surged to victory in Israeli March‘s parliamentary elections. Voter turnout reached 72 percent of eligible voters, the highest in Israel since 1999. Likud gained 30 out of 120 seats in the Knesset, its main rival, the center-left Zionist Union, led by Isaac Herzog, scored 24 seats. Despite Herzog’s party increased its strength in the Knesset by more than one-third, majority of voters opted for the right. This has been declared a triumph of security concerns over economic and social issues that were prioritized in Herzog’s campaign. “Bibi” Netanyahu’s fourth government is likely to be a right-center coalition. Along with partners from the previous government, the Kulanu centrist party of former minister Moshe Kahlon (10 seats), Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu (6 seats) and the nationalist, pro-settlement Jewish Home party (8 seats), Netanyahu has also negotiated with two ultra-Orthodox parties – Shas (7 seats), and United Torah Judaism (6 seats). According to international observers, Netanyahu’s victory appears to be another nail in the coffin of fading hopes for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. In the run-up to an election, the second longest serving prime minister in Israel’s history said a two-state solution was no longer viable. Although later on he softened stance on his commitment not to allow the establishment of a Palestinian state, his return to power seems to exacerbate the country’s foreign relations, both with EU and especially his already difficult ones with Obama’s administration during the president’s final two years in office.

interview Jaroslav Naď: NATO Is Returning Back To Its Original Role Of Territorial Defence NATO has been with us for the past couple of decades during which it went through more or less favourable times. Why and how did NATO manage to endure? What is the value of transatlantic security partnership for the allies now, and how has it changed since the Cold war? When NATO was founded in 1949, the situation in Europe was very unstable. During the postWW2 period, the power of the Soviet Union was growing, and its tendencies to expand the territory ruled by communists began to show. The countries of Western Europe as well as the USA began to perceive this as a threat. The transatlantic partnership, which had proven to be crucial during WW2, created NATO and persisted throughout the Cold War because the threat based on the tough and dangerous rhetoric of the Soviet Union (and later Warsaw Pact) made NATO increasingly relevant. It was precisely this firm partnership that eventually steered the Soviet Union away from its confrontational attitude at the end of the 1980s. With an alarming economic situation in its countries, the Union did not manage to keep up with NATO. This ultimately caused the dissolution of both the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union itself. At this moment, NATO turned out to be a crucial element of democratic change, since apart from contributing to the fall of the

interviewed by Katarína Schwertnerová

Soviet Union and the Pact, it also provided security and defence for Western Europe and the US. Since 1991, NATO has remained the warrant of stability, peace and security up to this day. Now, after the period of relatively friendly approach towards NATO,

we can see Russia returning to its aggressive rhetoric and military operations - and I am not referring only to Ukraine, but also Georgia, and to the cyber-attack on Estonia. In this situation, NATO continues to ensure security and defence. Nobody can doubt that. Despite several unsubstantiated demonstrations against it, the truth remains that Russia will not dare to attack NATO in a way it attacked Georgia or Ukraine. It is said sometimes that crisis in Ukraine has become the new raison d´être for NATO

-especially with the ending of ISAF mission in Afghanistan. Considering the proximity of the Ukrainian conflict to NATO´s eastern border, how should the Alliance respond? To what extent, if at all, should NATO engage? Is NATO going to focus on the defence of its own territory and that way actually return to its original purpose?

That is exactly where the Alliance is headed to: back to the basics - the defence of its own territory. Yes, the mission in Afghanistan is nearing its end. In fact, it has already been shifted to a training mission. The original crew of 150, 000 soldiers is gone, and only less than 10,000 are to remain stationed there. Afghanistan is not the main topic in the Alliance anymore, but neither is the conflict in Ukraine. NATO does not have any soldiers in Ukraine, and is not involved in any fighting despite some media suggesting otherwise. The attack of the Russian Federation on Ukraine became the main focus of the Alliance only because it is so close to NATO´s borders as no conflict before. Hybrid war, a new type of warfare introduced by Russia, is very dangerous. It draws on Russian minorities which are quite considerable in the Baltics for example. Combined with cyber-attacks and enormous Russian propaganda in the media, which costs billions of dollars each year,

it poses a great threat. The Alliance adapts to this by returning back to its original role of defending its own territory. For this reason we can see NATO strengthening its infrastructure on the eastern border, and staging more military exercises. NATO is preparing for a potential attack from the Russian Federation. Speaking of the Baltics and the eastern border, it is obvious that NATO is increasing its presence in the region. However, some doubts emerge about the willingness of western allies to get involved should the Baltics be attacked. Is there enough resolve to activate Article 5 of the Washington Treaty when it comes to this region? What significance would this decision bear on NATO’s credibility and its ability to deter threats? I do not want this to come across as a cliché but as someone who spent couple of years in NATO, I am utterly convinced that Putin bolstered the Alliance more than anybody else ever could. He rekindled the need to protect other allies. I believe that in case of a real attack on any of the NATO states, including the Baltics, the Alliance will act as one and activate the Article 5. Even Putin is aware of this, and contrary to the propaganda which is trying to disrupt the unity of allies, it is not true that Germany or any other big country would not step up to defend the Baltics. I am confident that they would. We can see a growing number of NATO personnel and equipment on the eastern border in the countries that have expressed concern about their defence, like the Baltic states, Poland or even Romania. This is based on evaluation by intelligence services and NATO´s military structures, which deemed these regions threatened. This initiative alone

proves that NATO is capable of reaching the necessary consensus for launching collective defence. Is NATO ready to face a potential hybrid attack on the Baltics? Could Article 5 be activated in response to this kind of aggression even though it explicitly states only the condition of military attack? When it comes to activation of the Article 5, there is the instance of North Atlantic Council meeting, where all details of a particular situation are discussed and carefully examined. There would be a statement from NATO´s military and intelligence structures about the issue at hand, present-

other forms of conflicts? NATO has always been more than just a military organization, with an important political and security dimension to its character. Recently, we have been witnessing immense Russian propaganda, mainly in Central and Eastern Europe, but also further west. Only in Slovakia, 40 different websites with propaganda content were identified, and there is probably more of them. We can be sure that the intelligence services monitor them as well as their funding. Probably the most extreme magazine in Slovakia in this sense is called Zem a vek, with over hundred pages published monthly on high quality paper without any ad-

“I am sure that NATO will respond even in case of “little green men” appearing near eastern border or cyber attack.” ing the actors behind the attack, and deciding whether there is an actual army involved or if it is only a cyber-attack. Only after all the aspects of situation are considered, the council can make a decision, and I believe they definitely would activate the Article 5 even in case of a hybrid war. I do not dare to claim that NATO is hundred percent ready for hybrid war because honestly speaking, there is no way to be truly ready for this kind of warfare, since it is so unpredictable. I do dare to say though that NATO is much more prepared than it had been before the conflict in Ukraine broke out. This was a great lesson for the military planning and political structures of the Alliance. Apart from the threat of hybrid war, NATO also faces a massive information war associated with pro-Russian propaganda. How does NATO fight this war? Did the primarily military character of the Alliance change in order to confront

vertisements, which they are very proud of, and it costs only 3€. It is clearly unprofitable and has to be funded by someone. There are many similar examples not only in Slovakia. NATO and EU realize that something has to be done about this propaganda. However, it would not be right to respond to one wave of propaganda with another. Even though it is a long-term effort, it is necessary to inform objectively, keep on explaining and revealing lies. Rather paradoxically, even in the context of such imminent threats to the Alliance, public opinion and even the attitudes of some political representatives in the Visegrad countries are turning against NATO. Where is this coming from and how is it perceived by our allies, especially considering that not all of these countries fulfil their commitments towards the Alliance?

As to fulfilling our commitments, Visegrad countries are responsible members of the Alliance, and act very adequately in concrete initiatives. The problem is with the defence budgets, where, except for Poland, the remaining three countries are lagging behind in fulfilling the two-percent GDP requirement. This is apparent and the Alliance reminds us about it all the time. But generally speaking, we are responsible allies in voting and supporting NATO´s initiatives. On the other hand, our politicians, again with the exception of Poland, tend to merely reflect public opinion polls rather than try to direct the public opinion the right way. When large part of their voters are turning against NATO or are at least sceptical, they reproduce this in their public speeches, doubting the Alliance and creating unnecessary fear of NATO bases being established in their countries. Of course, we are not expected to have bases similar to Ramstein in Germany, but the truth is, whether anyone likes it or not, that our armed forces are integrated within those of NATO, and therefore any of our military bases can be and will be used for the needs of the Alliance should it become necessary. Gaining few more votes by catering to popular tendencies is very irresponsible. Responsible politicians should clearly communicate where the danger lies: which

country is it that attacks its neighbours and has active and unfortunately already successful intentions to redraw the borders of the post-Cold War Europe. That country is Russia, and I personally consider attendance of our political representatives at the celebrations in Moscow highly inappropriate. Rather than a remembrance of the fallen Red Army soldiers, it serves as a sign of consent to Putin´s aggressive activities. What is the vision of NATO´s persistence to the future? How will the Alliance look like in the years to come? Do you see the potential for young people and professionals to contribute to NATO´s progress and improvement? It is crucial that young people understand the reality of the current international security relations. Young people are the future - I consider myself one of them - and I think it is precisely their attitude towards NATO, EU and the transatlantic values, that will shape how these organizations and their cooperation will look like in the future. I would be very glad if the whole Balkans, including Serbia, were integrated to NATO and the EU. If NATO were not content with its enlargement, we would not be talking about Macedonia joining in after settling its disputes with Greece or Montenegro quite soon.

aroslav Naď is Senior Fellow for Defence and Security at the Central European Policy Institute and also Deputy CEO of the Slovak Atlantic Commission. Previously, he worked at various positions at the defence ministry, including as Director General of the Defence Policy, International Relations and Legislation Section where he oversaw strategic documents, plans analyses, and legislative activities, both bilateral and multilateral relations and crises management operations, and later as Head of Defence Section at the Permanent Delegation of the Slovak Republic to NATO. Before joining the Ministry, Jaroslav Naď was

From a long-term point of view, it would be great to see Ukraine, Moldova and other eastern countries join the Alliance, as I am convinced their values are based on democracy and human rights and that they belong to this community too. I think the only proper policy for the Alliance to adopt against the aggressive policy of Russia is expansion. The more countries in NATO, the more secure the environment in Europe. I sincerely wish we had kept building the trust between the West and Russia in the years after the Cold War. I am afraid though that under Putin´s leadership this policy would be too demanding. We have yet to see what the future holds for the Russian Federation. Its economic situation worsens rapidly. Putin´s level of support is maintained by propaganda and censorship which will be unsustainable in the long run with people struggling economically in their day-to-day lives. Against all the odds, I believe Europe will live in peace and security, and not face a major military conflict. Hopefully, the situation in Ukraine discouraged any future potential aggressors from pursuing similar goals. I hope that the transatlantic bond between Europe and USA will be preserved in the decades to come because it is the basic element of stability and peace in Europe. We should never forget that.

active in the non-governmental organisations Slovak Foreign Policy Association and Euro-Atlantic Center. He holds a MA degree in Political Science from the Matej Bel University in Banská Bystrica, Slovakia. He is a graduate of the Program on Advance Security Studies at The George C. Marshall Center for Security Studies in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in Germany. Naď is a PhD candidate at the Armed Forces Academy in Liptovský Mikuláš, Slovakia. He fluently speaks English and German and also understands Russian and French.

BIO

in depth Is NATO Still Willing and Ready

to Defend Europe’s Eastern Border?

Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp: Academic Director of the Federal Academy for Security Policy in Berlin

ladimir Putin might have asked this question to his advisors prior to annexing Crimea and they answered probably “no” - firmly believing that neither NATO nor the European Union would be ready to take a tough stance on Russia’s appalling breach of international law. The Kremlin was wrong! The EU remained surprisingly united and NATO fundamentally re-assessed its security and defence policy over the last year. Faced with the possibility of Russia turning its hy¬brid mix of military and non-military means against the Baltic States or Poland, NATO had to send out a double message: a sign of resolve to any potential aggressor and a symbol of reas¬surance to its members in the East. Thus, at its September 2014 summit in Wales the Alliance agreed on an entire set of military measures to beef up its deterrence and defence capabilities. The core of this so called Readiness Action Plan (RAP) was the announcement of a new rapid reac¬tion force with the cumbersome name Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF). It is supposed to be the spearhead of the already existing NATO Response Force (NRF) which has been created in 2002. The VJTF is to be much more agile and quicker deployed in order to cope with any aggression against NATO territory promptly. Whereas member states’ governments praised the Read-

Russian President Vladimir Putin

iness Action Plan and the VJTF as powerful means of NATO’s resolution, critics have doubts about the realisation of these ambi-tious announcements. Why, they ask, should the VJTF be more successful than its “mother”, the NATO Response Force which has never been

tend to ignore the circumstances under which this idea was created. The old NRF was more a general tool for military transformation in order to adapt NATO’s forces to the post-9/11 world. The VJTF and the RAP instead were born out of a specific political situation and have

NATO had to send out a double message: a sign of resolve to any potential aggressor and a symbol of reassurance to its members in the East. used in its twelve years of existence? Moreover, where shall the money come from to finance such a wish-list of military improvements? Fair questions, but they

been an answer to a clear and identifiable threat against NATO’s territorial integrity. Agile military forces, more exercises or increased command and control capabilities will strengthen

NATO’s deterrence by signalling military readiness and Alliance solid¬arity. This will most likely change the cost-benefit analysis of any potential aggressor since an attack against a Baltic State would not only involve forces from Latvia or Estonia but from all NATO allies who contribute to the military buildup in the East – including the United States. However, such military improvements are very costly. Large quantities of military personnel have to be kept on

only stopped the trend of further budgetary cuts but are reversing it. This development is certainly supported by the fact that the Putin regime shows no softening of its imperial policies vis-à-vis neighbouring states despite the fact that the economic con¬sequences of the aggression against Ukraine and the falling oil prices might get the Russian economy down to its knees. Still, the question remains whether NATO is not

Alas, this question can never be answered in advance but belongs to the ambiguity that comes with deterrence. Also during the Cold War it was far from certain that all NATO members would be ready to fight if one of them would be attacked by the then Warsaw Pact. However, the crucial question for every aggressor is whether defence and retaliation by NATO can be ruled out. If it cannot be excluded, the risk of aggression grows significantly. Therefore, a clear declaratory policy on NATO side and available forces which have demonstrated their mobility in military ex¬ercises will indicate that no one should count on NATO remaining passive in case of an aggression. Instead, touching NATO borders could lead to a military exchange with the strongest alliance on the planet. Hence, the same advisors asked by Putin about the idea of sending “little green men” to the Baltics are likely to say: “better not, Mr. President!”

The views expressed in this paper are the responsibility of the author alone.

alert to make sure that a certain number of soldiers are available at any given time. Military equipment has to be stored on the soil of Eastern European NATO mem-bers in order to keep reaction times as short as possible. Thus, critics have a point when they raise the question of NATO defence budgets. NATO politicians have a long tradition in ignoring their common promises for more defence spending as soon as they return to their home constituencies. However, all Allies have meanwhile realised that the deterioration of the relations with Russia is not a bad weather period which passes by but a fundamental cli¬mate change. Hence, countries like Poland, Germany and others have not

only able to defend its Eastern borders but also willing to do so. Will NATO allies agree quickly enough setting the military apparatus in motion should there be severe tensions with Russia? Or is NATO currently building a high readiness force for low readiness politicians? Would there be a rapid consensus in all 28 member states to send the VJTF into the area concerned and to set a sign of Alliance cohesion? Or would there be NATO governments warning not to further escalate the crisis with Russia and to start negotiations with Moscow instead – thereby just hiding the fact that they are not willing to go to war for their allies? 11

in depth

The Future Role of NATO: Reinventing the Alliance?

Trine Flockhart: Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies

he world seems to be changing at breakneck speed. In the last year, the crisis in Ukraine and the growing instability on NATO’s southern borders have completely altered the European security environment of the past twenty-five years. At the same time, the ‘rebalance to Asia’ as well as the many emerging security challenges that NATO has been focused on in recent years have not gone away albeit that attention may have shifted to the immediate dangers in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa. These developments necessarily raise the question of what the future role of NATO will be. Will NATO have to reinvent itself to remain relevant in a very different security environment – and just as important - how likely is it that NATO will be able to undertake the necessary change? Time is of the essence and the relevance of long established practices and bargains may well have to be reassessed, as failure to adapt may leave the Alliance without a future.

A Flexible and Adaptable Alliance From a positive perspective, and as recently pointed out by NATO’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg – one of NATO’s greatest strengths is precisely its ability to adapt. 12

Arguably, this ability is rooted in the multiple roles of the Alliance, most clearly expressed in the Strategic Concept from 2010 in the three ‘core tasks’ – collective security, cooperative security and crisis management. The three core tasks are at once an expression of NATO’s ability to adapt over time and a firm foundation on which to continue to be able to adapt to changing circumstances. The Alliance is – and always was – more than ‘just’ a defence alliance. This is clearly stated in the Washington Treaty which emphasizes both collective defence (Article Five) AND cooperative defence (Article Two). Moreover following the end of the Cold War, the Alliance added the role of crisis management through a practice of engagement that has since been codified in NATO’s strategic concepts. Had NATO ‘just’ been a defence alliance, it would probably have disappeared along with the Cold War as it would have had no raison d’etre. The benefit of the three core tasks is that the Alliance has been able to focus on one or two of the core tasks at any one time depending on the specific security challenges of the time. Moreover having multiple roles has allowed the Alliance to switch between them with relative ease. During the Cold War NATO focussed almost exclusively on collective defence, whereas the post-Cold War period has been characterized by

a focus on cooperative security through NATO’s growing circle of partnerships and increasingly – though at times reluctantly on crisis management through NATO’s many operations. In the current environment, the temptation is to go ‘back to basics’ to once again focus primarily, or even exclusively, on collective security in response to the dramatic decline in the relationship with Russia. This however, would be a major mistake reflecting a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of the changes facing the Alliance.

The Nature of Change in the Security Environment It is tempting to think that the changes NATO has to respond to are ‘simply’ changes in Russian policy and ‘simply’ the emergence of a number of unruly non-state actors such as Islamic State, Boko Haram and others. But what if Russia’s new assertiveness and the rise of IS are symptoms of even greater change? What if it is the basic structure of the international system that is changing – a change that is as significant – perhaps even more so – than the changes following the end of the Cold War? There is no doubt that the international system is changing and that the rules-based liberal

order established in the wake of the Second World War is being challenged. A polycentric system appears to be emerging characterized by plurality of power and plurality of overarching ideas and on how order in the international system should be maintained. In addition the shine of the liberal democratic model has clearly faded as liberal order has failed to live up to the promise of freedom and prosperity and as many liberal states clearly are in crisis. The combination of the emergence of new ideas for how order in the international system should be maintained and how domestic affairs should be conducted means that the universalization of liberal values both at the international and national level, can no longer be taken for granted. The challenge ahead is to simultaneously strengthen lib-

eral order internally – especially multilateral institutions and the transatlantic relationship, whilst simultaneously seeking to establish a new or reformed global institutional framework and a new broad consensus on how to maintain order in the international system. NATO can play an important role in this process, which if managed wisely might ensure the relevance of the alliance for the future – but if managed unwisely will bring the core of liberal order – the transatlantic relationship - in peril.

A Relevant NATO in a Changed World In the past NATO has had the luxury of being able to focus on just one or two of its

core tasks. In the emerging security environment however, the dilemma is that the challenges on NATO’s eastern and southern flanks seem to suggest that the Alliance should hurry ‘back to basics’ by focussing on collective security. Yet doing so ignores the increased need for cooperative security in which partnership diplomacy may forge essential links across dividing lines and the continuing need for crisis management and peace-support in an increasingly unstable neighbourhood. Trine Flockhart is Senior Researcher of the Danish Institute for International Studies, where she focuses on International (Liberal) Order, European Security, Transatlantic Relations, European security institutions (NATO & EU), the transfer of ideas through state socialization and dynamics of change.

A relevant NATO is a NATO, which manages to play a full role in ALL three core tasks by; • • •

in collective security in cooperative security in crisis management fully implementing the decisions taken at the Wales Summit, including the 2 per cent spending pledge and the full implementation of the Readiness Action Plan

reassess the role and function of NATO’s partnerships. Although partnerships may be based on shared values and eventually lead to membership, it is more likely that partnerships will be more narrow based on (perhaps limited) shared interests and specific policy areas. Moreover partnerships with other international organizations, including the EU, are a pre-requisite for meeting many of the challenges in NATO’s neighbourhood.

realizing that top table credibility today comes from availability to contribute to crisis management operations rather than from having an often static territorial defence. Participation in crisis management operations when they have been agreed are not an optional extra but is the foundation of a new implicit transatlantic bargain in which the ‘price’ for the continued relevance of the American security guarantee is an active contribution to order-making in the vicinity of Europe whilst the United States balances towards Asia.

So the answer to the question of whether NATO will have to reinvent itself to remain relevant, is both yes and no. ‘No’ because NATO’s basic structure is sound and will still be based on the same three core tasks. ‘Yes’ because NATO will – once again – have to adapt to the prevailing security situation, which for the first time in NATO’s history will require deep engagement in all three core tasks. So far NATO seems to be doing well on the implementation of the Readiness Action Plan, though less so on the 2 per cent spending pledge. However, so far the importance of cooperative security and crisis management for maintaining NATO’s relevance and contributing to strengthening liberal order internally and for forging a new global consensus on how to maintain global order, seem not to be widely appreciated. This is a worry because without urgent action, the changes in the international system could seriously jeopardize NATO’s future.

conclusion

in depth

Forgotten Lessons

Niels Frederik Malskær: Energy Security Specialist

his magazine poses a quesBecause of these in- direction, there must be a retion that has been asked cursions and the invasion of newed appreciation of the true many times since the end Ukraine, the five Nordic coun- value that collective security of the Cold War: is NATO still rel- tries: Denmark, Finland, Nor- provided by NATO has, espeevant? The answer is unequivo- way, Sweden and Iceland, have cially to the smaller nations in cally, yes. Even the most casual declared Russian behaviour as the east and north of Europe. observer of current affairs can “the biggest challenge to the The outrage shown by world see that most predictions from European security situation” . leaders in the aftermath of the five years ago regarding how Furthermore, the Nordic coun- Russian annexation of Crimea the security situation of Eu- tries have agreed to increase was a result of (Western) leadrope would evolve, have been the military cooperation with ers’ belief that the realpolitik of false. Not many predicted the more joint manoeuvres and in- the 20th century, and indeed behaviour of the Russian re- creased high-level exchange of all of human history, no longer gime. In the face of this aggres- intelligence. had an effect on the European sive behaviour from the East, it The Nordic countries have security situation. The move by would be completely illogical to rediscovered the strength that Putin is not uncommon in the assume that the appeasement lies in presenting a common grand scheme of modern interof Russia, i.e. a scaling down front. It is a lesson that the coun- national history, but it seemed of the NATO to have alerted cooperation, some WestWhile it is clear that there are new threats in the would have ern countries the desired efto the fact that 21st century, ones that NATO must adapt in order to fect. History there are tigers counter, the old threats must be remembered. has shown rein this world. peatedly what happens, when aggression is tries formerly under the yoke of unchallenged - it becomes ag- the Soviet Union were quick to gression unleashed. learn, but which was somewhat To take just one example lost in the period of relative ince the turn of the century, of this belligerence, the almost peace and prosperity the Norit has become increasingly routine violations of the air- dic countries experienced from obvious that Russia views space of Scandinavian coun- the 50s onwards. Jens Stolten- most, if not all, things through tries (not mentioning British berg, former Prime Minister of the prism of security. Whether and Baltic examples) by Russian Norway and current General it be oil and gas resources or military aircraft who, against Secretary of NATO, commented the media, Russia has elected international regulations, turn that the new Nordic agreement to keep things under tight state off their transponders. This has will no doubt strengthen the control to make sure that all asgotten even the blindest pol- already deep cooperation be- sets at Russia’s disposal serve iticians in the pacifist north to tween NATO and its partners in the overarching plan laid out understand that a rethinking of Sweden and Finland. by the Kremlin. This political the security situation is necesWhile this cooperation control of resources has been sary. is certainly a step in the right abundantly clear through the

Divide and Conquer

forging of bilateral gas deals with Germany and other European countries while simultaneously bludgeoning Ukraine by choking off supplies as well as keeping Lukashenko flush with cheap gas and money. Let me be clear, that there is nothing truly ‘wrong’ with Russia using its natural resources as it sees fit, however,

the day. Secondly, any security framework that does not build on the core that NATO represents throws away 50 years of trust, cooperation and integration of command structures, not to mention shared values. While it is clear that there are new threats in the 21st century, ones that NATO must adapt in order to counter, the old threats

or without opposing to become a victim of such behaviour is a recipe for disaster. How many threats, how many violations should one accept before stopping it? It is certainly not an enviable task, but one thing is clear, the more united NATO can stand, the more credible its potential power is seen, the less

Russian TU-95 and Norwegian F-16

it is time for both NATO and the EU to fully accept that this Russian strategy cannot be fully understood in a Western perspective. Therefore, a few basic concepts should be integrated into Western strategic thinking moving forward. Firstly, nothing serves Russian interests better than a divided opponent; Russian makes this clear through their desperate attempts to scare NATO members/partners away from further cooperation, such as the recent nuclear threat against Denmark . It is also clear that any splintering of the EU serves its purposes well, as Russia shows through its overtures towards Greece and its support, financial and political, for Hungarian Prime Minister Orban who moves further away from European ideals by

must be remembered. NATO may have a hard time adapting to change, which many cite as a proof of its ignorance and as a reason to disband or severely limit the alliance. However, true ignorance would lie in forgetting old lessons while trying to learn new ones, especially lessons paid for in blood.

Challenges Ahead

he task of all NATO countries in the coming days is to decide what they are willing to accept. On the one hand, no one wants to escalate an already tense situation vis-à-vis Russia; on the other hand, accepting this kind of behaviour without consequence,

likely it is that the countries are dragged into accepting what they are not willing to accept. When a tiger stalks your camp, it might not be clever to charge it, but it is downright dumb not to load your gun. Russian aggression: Nordic states extend their military cooperation”, Aftenposten, 9. April: http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/ Russian-aggression-Nordic-states-extend-their-military-cooperation-7975109. html Russia threatens Denmark with nuclear weapons if it tries to join Nato defence shield”, The independent, 22. March, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/ europe/russia-threatens-denmark-withnuclear-weapons-if-it-tries-to-join-nato-defence-shield-10125529.html

visegrad news Poland hungary Polish Military Hungary’s Jobbik Success Cooperation with Ukraine after a Face-Lift

Photo: Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko, right, and Poland President Bronislaw Komorowski hug each other after Komorowski addressed to lawmakers in Parliament in Kiev, Ukraine, Thursday, April 9, 2015. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

olish President Bronisław Komorowski addressed the Supreme Council in Ukraine during his visit to the country on 8-9 April for the first time in history. “Poland is ready to participate in a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine” – declared the Polish head of state at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko. A few days later the Ministry of Defence of Poland declared that Joint Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian military drills are to be held in autumn. The unit will have the headquarters in east Poland, near the border with Ukraine, with soldiers based in their home countries. According to Polish MoD, Tomasz Siemoniak, Kosovo is one of the countries where the military of this brigade will be able to go under a peacekeeping mission. The management unit will consist of 100 soldiers and military employees, including 18 Ukrainians and 5 Lithuanians. A framework agreement on the establishment of a joint military brigade was signed in September 2014. ‘’Poland’s role is to ensure that the Western world does not close the doors to political and security structures, to the European Union and also, if Ukraine wishes, to NATO’’, said president Komorowski.

“Poland is ready to participate in a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine” – declared the Polish head of state at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko.”

he leader of Hungary’s Jobbik party Gábor Vona declared that his group renounces its far-right origins, wants to remain an EU member state and will talk to the foreign investors in order to bring back the influx of money from abroad. He distanced himself from the view that Jobbik is an anti-Semitic and xenophobic party. With this softened, allegedly democratic voice – similar to the change done by Marine Le Pen face-lifting of the National Front in France - it reached number one position in opinion polls among all opposition parties and lately a Jobbik candidate Lajos Rig was declared the winner of a parliamentary by-election, beating the governing Fidesz party’s candidate. Jobbik won 20 percent of the vote in April 2014 elections, giving it 23 Members of Parliament on a national list. Rig became Jobbik’s first MP elected for an individual constituency. The Hungarian Parliament has 199 seats, with 106 seats distributed by individual constituency and 93 are by the parties’ national lists. Jobbik is the third-largest party in Hungary’s parliament and has three MEPs. It has tried to soften its image recently, but remains committed to defending conservative Hungarian values and thwarting integration of Roma communities, many of whom are desperately poor and marginalised. From 2018, Jobbik will govern this country,” Jobbik leader Gabor Vona told cheering supporters in Budapest as the election results came in. But he faces an uphill task to overtake Fidesz. His main problem is that Prime Minister Orban has stolen most of his Eurosceptic clothes. “Jobbik has tried to soften its image recently, but remains committed to defending conservative Hungarian values and thwarting integration of Roma communities, many of whom are desperately poor and marginalised.”

czech republic The Dragoon Ride Split the Czech Society

slovakia Two Camps in Slovakia Fight over Russia slovakia

Photo: A US army soldier shows a gun mounted on top of a stryker armoured vehicle to children during a stop of his convoy in Prague, Czech Republic, Tuesday, March 31, 2015. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)

Photo: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Andrej Kiska, President of the Slovak Republic at the meeting in Bratislava.

he Dragoon Ride was a part of the Atlantic Resolve exercise that was supposed to show NATO’s readiness to defend its members who feel threatened by the Russian aggression in Ukraine. More than 600 soldiers and 120 military vehicles, mainly Stryker armoured carriers and Humvees, travelled across Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and the Czech Republic. Finally after 13 days, three convoys reached Germany and finished at Rose Barracks in Vilseck on April 1. It was the longest road march across Europe since World War II. The American soldiers interacted with the local residents along the way. Huge crowds of people in the Czech Republic welcomed the U.S. military convoys when they left Poland. Despite rainy weather thousands of people were waving U.S. and NATO flags along the roads and motorways. Americans received Czech beer from the supporters and even a special escort by the local Harley-Davidson motorcycle club. But dozens of opponents also manifested against the convoys. Defamatory anti-American inscriptions on the bridges had to be removed by the Road and Motorway Directorate. Russian media eagerly reported on the anti-US protesters, calling them “anti-war organizations” whereas in reality they mainly comprised of members of the Czech Communist Party. It can be stated with a high degree of certainty that the creation of anti-American groups on Facebook like “Tanks? No Thanks!” was inspired or even done in Russia. A huge natural anti-U.S. activism on social media just days before the Dragoon Ride is highly unlikely, because 82 percent of Czechs declared the approval of the convoy’s presence. The “Dragoon Ride” convoy started last week from Estonia and passed through Latvia, Lithuania and Poland before entering the Czech Republic on a return journey to a German base.

ussian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of Bratislava’s liberation from the Nazis by the Red Army in Bratislava on April 4. During the meeting of the Russia’s chief diplomat with Slovakia’s President Andrej Kiska, a staunch critic of Putin’s war in eastern Ukraine and Crimea annexation, in front of the presidential palace in Bratislava two opposite groups clashed. Some demonstrators denounced Moscow’s role in the Ukraine crisis whereas other pro-Russian protesters held banners saying “Slav brothers, thanks you for the liberation”. One group was singing “Occupier” the other “Long Live Putin”. Kiska, unlike Prime Minister Robert Fico, has condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine and unlike his Czech counterpart President Miloš Zeman, declared he would not attend the Victory celebrations in Moscow in May. The conflict manifested itself in full swing at the Slavín cemetery where more than 6,8oo Red Army soldiers are buried. When Minister Lavrov took part in the wreath-laying ceremony, hundreds of Russia’s followers greeted him by an applause. President Andrej Kiska was absent at the cemetery. Slovakia isn’t interested in twisting facts pertaining to its history, President Andrej Kiska stated on Saturday in relation with the role played by the Red Army in the liberation of Slovakia in WWII. Speaking after a meeting, Kiska emphasised that people in Slovakia understand the irreplaceable part played by the Red Army in the liberation of the country. “And this is to remain as it is. There is no interest whatsoever in Slovakia, no predisposition or tendencies towards twisting historical facts,” stressed the president, also referring to his recent decision to decline an invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the official celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII in Moscow.

EU INSIGHT

Time to Forge a European Defence Union Steven Blockmans: Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies

he European Union may not end up having a joint army, as shown by the opposition of several member states to the recent declarations of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. But it could and should move forward to a new framework for defence cooperation. The report of the CEPS Task Force on European Security and Defence, presented on

March 9 in Brussels by Javier Solana, argues that it is high time that EU member states took bolder and more concrete integrative steps to address common threats. The Task Force suggests policy actions to further the EU’s strategic, institutional capabilities, and resources cooperation in the field of defence, bundled in an overarching framework of a ‘European Defence Union’ (EDU).

neutrality and others deepen- out the EU, they also underestiing their military cooperation mate the degree of expectation within NATO. Russia’s shock to among the European public, the system has also exposed which for the past ten years has the fragility of gas supplies and, consistently polled over 70% Rather than being sur- as a consequence, propelled EU in favour of a broad European rounded by a ring of friends, policy action towards the cre- project in the area of defence. the EU is now faced with an arc ation of an Energy Union. Against this backdrop, the of instability stretching from cost implications of non-Euthe Sahel to the Horn of Africa, rope in defence – currently esthrough the Middle East and the timated at €26 billion per year Caucasus up to the new frontin a 2013 European Parliament lines in Eastern Europe. Threats Report – could rise to €130 bilare not purely military in nalion as the security environment ture but range from the proin the EU’s strategic neighbourliferation of weapons of mass hood worsens. Member states destruction to cyber-attacks Divergent threat percep- could achieve much more value and (dis)information warfare, tions and security interests of for money than the €190 bilpiracy, the actions of ethno-na- member states have prevented lion that they spend to keep up tionalist groups with subversive the emergence of a common 28 national armies, comprising intentions, and threats to ener- strategic culture and hampered roughly 1.5 million service pergy and environmental security. the creation of joint structures, sonnel. In addition to the obRadicalisation in the EU and procedures and assets at the vious economic costs, political, extremism in the neighbour- EU level. Whereas Central and moral and strategic imperatives hood act as ‘communicating Eastern Europe is exercised by urge the EU to step up its efvessels’ and blur the difference between what is internal or exA rationalisation of EU defence cooperation is likely ternal to the EU. to spill over to NATO too.” Russia’s infiltrations in Ukraine and provocations to member states’ territorial water Russia’s aggressive foreign pol- forts in defence cooperation. and air defences have delivered icy, EU member states in the A rationalisation of EU dea blow to Europe’s post-Cold south worry more about the fence cooperation is likely to War security order and have violent implosion of Libya and spill over to NATO too. Whererevived awareness in the EU the challenges posed by waves as the United States opposed about the possibility of mili- of illegal migrants crossing the the development of distinct tary attack and occupation in Mediterranean. By national na- defence structures within the Europe. Policy reactions have vel-gazing, member states’ po- EU a decade ago, their estabdiffered though, with some litical leaders are not only in lishment has since become a member states defending their denial of threats faced through- matter of course. Of the 28 EU

Troubled Neighbourhood

The Rising Cost and Danger of Non-Europe

Rather than being surrounded by a ring of friends, the EU is now faced with an arc of instability. member states, 22 are NATO allies. Action to improve the EU’s own defences would simultaneously strengthen Europe’s influence within NATO and enhance the credibility of the Transatlantic Alliance, thus preventing it from descending into what former US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates famously described as “collective military irrelevance”.

The Way Forward: More Union in European Defence Sixty-five years after the Pleven Plan to create a European Defence Community, EU member states need to formulate and elaborate a bold vision for defence integration consistent with current concerns about security environment and austerity. The CEPS Task Force sets two general targets towards the creation of an EDU: i) capacity to support NATO and Nordic, Baltic, Central and Eastern European countries in deterring and countering conventional and hybrid warfare tactics. This entails capabilities for identifying, evaluating and responding to threats through a mix of special, permanent and rapid reaction forces, cyber defence and public diplomacy; and ii) political and military autonomy

the principles of the United Nations Charter and international law, as indeed the EU’s own fundamental interests, security and independence. The EDU framework builds on a gradual integrative process to develop new habits of cooperation based on strategic convergence, while developing an EU vision for a better and more efficient cooperation in security and defence. Policy actions include an upgrade of the European Security Strategy within the process of strategic reorientation launched by Federica

and control; and industrial harmonisation to re-galvanize the European defence technological and industrial base by stimulating investments in innovative research programmes. At its summit in June, the European Council should define a roadmap with practical and realistic steps to move, by stages, from the blueprint to the launch of an EDU. To that end, EU leaders should appoint an independent committee, supported by the EEAS and the relevant branches of the European Commission acting under

US Secretary of John Kerry, left, European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, center, and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, right, wait for the start of the G7 foreign ministers meeting in Luebeck, northern Germany, Wednesday, April 15, 2015. (Daniel Reinhardt/Pool Photo via AP)

Mogherini; reform of institu- the authority of the HR/VP, to tions, procedures and financing propose such a roadmap, involving the attainment of harmonisation criteria and mandaEuropean Council should define a roadmap with practory milestones for upgrades in tical and realistic steps to move, by stages, from the each basket of reform. Although the process of blueprint to the launch of an EDU. bringing European armies to a more structured cooperation to conduct intervention opera- of a common defence, namely and, where appropriate, clostions in order to respond to or through regional clusters for er integration will certainly be deter crises. Such operations pooling & sharing of military a complex one, the numerous would typically be conducted capabilities, the creation of a crises facing Europe have made in partnership with national Eurogroup of Defence Minis- change possible. actors, regional organisations ters and permanent EU military and/or the UN to protect, inter headquarters in Brussels to enalia, respect for the rule of law, sure quick planning, command 19

Technology and innovation workshop on the new BMW 7 Series model range. PreDrive Miramas. BMW present an initial selection of development highlights which the next generation of the. BMW 7 Series model range will use to set new benchmarks in lightweight design, driving dynamics, comfort, intelligent connectivity and operation.

Intuitive operating with Touch Display and BMW gesture control. Rather than being surrounded by a ring of friends, the EU is now faced with an arc of instability stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, through the Middle East and the Caucasus up to the new frontlines in Eastern Europe. Threats are not purely military in nature but range from the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to cyber-attacks and (dis)infor-

mation warfare, piracy, the actions of ethno-nationalist groups with subversive intentions, and threats to energy and environmental security. Radicalisation in the EU and

extremism in the neighbourhood act as ‘communicating vessels’ and blur the difference between what is internal or external to the EU.

tion to cyber-attacks and (dis)information warfare, piracy, the actions of ethno-nationalist groups with subversive intentions, and threats to energy and environmental security. Radicalisation in the EU and extremism in the neighbourhood act

as ‘communicating vessels’ and blur the difference between what is internal or external to the EU.

Unique in the luxury sedan segment: remote control parking. Rather than being surrounded by a ring of friends, the EU is now faced with an arc of instability stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, through the Middle East and the Caucasus up to the new frontlines in Eastern Europe. Threats are not purely military in nature but range from the proliferation of weapons of mass destruc-

Innovative driver assistance systems from BMW ConnectedDrive enhance comfort and safety. New strings to the bows of the Driving Assistant Plus and Driving Assistant systems include the steering and directional control assistant, Lane Departure Warning Assistant with active side collision protection, and the rear

collision prevention and cross-traffic warning functions. When using the Active Cruise Control system with Stop &

Go function, a press of a button now suffices to acknowledge speed restrictions detected by the Speed Limit Info function.

ment of the BMW i models. The use of CFRP – whose material properties lend themselves to use in the passenger cell areas exposed to heavy loads – increases torsional rigidity

and strength. The configuration of the sheet metal elements can be adjusted accordingly, allowing body weight to be significantly reduced.

between these two facets of driving pleasure reaches a level without parallel in the luxury sedan segment. The inclusion of two-axle air suspension with automatic self-levelling as part of the standard specification leads to noticeably improved ride comfort. Dynamic Damper Control also features as standard. Its electronically controlled dampers improve the primary and secondary ride of the sedan and sharpen its dynamic attributes. The latest update of the Integral Active Steering system, along with the first electromechanically driven Dynamic Drive roll stabilisation system, contribute to a further boost in comfort, dynamic prowess and assurance on the road

in the new BMW 7 Series. The extensive use of carbon-fibre-reinforced plastic (CFRP) in the structure of the passenger cell, the rigorous and detailed application of lightweight design and a new generation of engines combine to reduce the weight of the luxury sedan along with its fuel consumption and emissions figures. The comfort, safety and driving experience offered by the new BMW 7 Series benefit from new chassis technology, exceptional scope for interaction with the car’s infotainment technology and a wider selection of driver assistance systems from BMW ConnectedDrive.

BMW EfficientLightweight: Carbon Core helps to reduce weight by up to 130 kilograms. Thanks to the BMW EfficientLightweight strategy, the new BMW 7 Series line-up will tip the scales up to 130 kilograms lighter than the outgoinggeneration of models. At its heart is a body structure with a Carbon Core based on the transfer of technology from the develop-

Dynamics and ride comfort made to measure – and to the highest standard. Sophisticated,precision-honed chassis technology and additional chassis control systems – fitted as standard or available as an option – enhance both the driving dynamics of the next-generation BMW 7 Series and its ride quality. At the same time, the balance

leadership YOUTH ATLANTIC TREATY ASSOCIATION – International Network of Inspiring

Young Security Professionals Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) is international network which brings together young security professionals and students from more than 36 NATO and partnership countries. The article presents some of the perspectives of YATA work and the importance it has for the development of future security leaders. Blaž Grilj: YATA Secretary General

ooking at the global security situation, we can observe a highly complex and challenging picture to say the least. Conflicts ranging from Eastern Europe and the crisis in Ukraine, the threat of international terrorism and ISIS, wars in Middle East and North Africa, to raising security tensions in the Pacific, remind us of the need for constant preparedness and adaptation to new security environment. We are observing the raising numbers of European and North American youth being attracted by the extreme ideas of terrorist organizations, revival of nationalistic and extreme politics and alarming numbers of young people involved in international organized crime. Complexity and variety of interconnected security challenges call for comprehensive and innovative solutions. We are in an era of rapid adaptation to ever changing security threats, where long transforma-

tions and adaptations simply become too rigid to address these new challenges. It is thus of high importance to actively engage young, motivated people, who are bringing new innovative perspectives and bridge the institutional gap between youth and policymakers that to some part exist today. The Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) is addressing

NGO’s in their respective countries. Since its establishment in 1996, YATA has been working on bringing together young leaders and bridging the gap between the policy level and civil society. It is in that sense a unique international association that opens the door to young people into a dynamic world of international security and enables them to gain valu-

Youth is indeed one of the most critical but also most innovative, forward looking and promising actors and has to be recognized as an important policy partner.” this need by offering a network of young professionals and academics who are interested in international security policies. YATA consists of 36 member organizations or so-called national chapters, all of which are the youth wings of established

able experience, learning from some of the leading expert of the field. The association offers a high variety of different events and activities for young professionals on different levels of their career. From young stu-

dents who are just making their first steps into a world of international affairs, to experienced young professionals looking to gain valuable experience and connections. Speaking from my own personal experience, I can clearly observe how YATA and its national chapters can efficiently serve as a guiding framework for the development of young security professional. Firstly, YATA and especially its national chapters offer a great entry point for anyone with aspirations in the field of international security, through active participation at one of many international events such as summer seminars that bring together a diverse set of young people from all over the Euro-Atlantic region. Some of the oldest and most prestigious YATA seminars are indeed Danish Atlantic Youth Seminar and Portuguese Atlantic Youth Seminar, both with decade’s long tradition of educating future security professionals. It is also worth mentioning many other highly recognized youth seminars and conferences organized in YATA network such as GLOBSEC Young Leaders’ Forum in Slovakia, Balkan Security Architecture Youth Seminar in Slovenia, 2BS Forum in Montenegro, NORSEC in Norway and many other events, which are regularly posted on YATA Websites. Taking in consideration the importance of constant development of new ideas and approaches as well as the fundamental need for constant public security awareness, YATA in my opinion has a dual role in contemporary security environment. Firstly, YATA servers as an important hub of new, innovative ideas and solutions for contemporary security envi-

ronment. With a growing number of highly educated students and young professionals, YATA has a potential to develop interesting and progressive strategic analysis that may serve to policy makers as an important guide as well as an inspiration. The analytical pieces produced by YATA international and national chapters already reach significant audience with potential for further expansion thus also serving as an important entry step in a development of young analysts. On the oth-

er hand, we should not forget on the multiplicative effect of YATA public information campaigns and the role it plays in informing Euro-Atlantic youth on the topics of international relations with a special focus on security. One of the latest most notable campaigns in that field are annual celebration of NATO Week and the new YATA initiative – YATA comment of the Week video series. Both initiatives serve as educational tools for the broader community, they inform general public as well as young professional on the important topics of the alliance, contribute to raising awareness and promote open debate. In that way, during NATO Week 2015, YATA held a series of public events all across the Euro-Atlantic region, both on national and international level. Activities among other included public lectures and de-

bates, knowledge competitions, young leaders’ discussions and awareness campaigns. YATA comment of the week on the other hand offers an interesting insight into various topics with young professionals sharing their expertise and explaining the possible solutions to important global challenges. Based on the activities of YATA and its dual role, we can clearly see mutual benefit for both young professionals as well as international organizations working in the field of security. With growing concerns over democratic deficit of some international organizations, low levels of public awareness and common misconceptions over the actions of some international organizations but especially NATO, we can see a clear role YATA has in informing public and promoting open debate. Furthermore, it serves international community by preparing well experienced young professionals to take some of the leading roles in a global security management. Looking back at the current security challenges, international community has to recognize a need for higher inclusion of various different stakeholders in global security management. Youth is indeed one of the most critical but also most innovative, forward looking and promising actors and has to be recognized as an important policy partner. YATA international will in that sense continue to educate and connect young security professionals, promote dialogue and youth participation and work towards developing lasting solutions for the Euro-Atlantic security. 23

Ambassador’s Advice

NATO as the Bedrock

of Global Security Amb. Douglas E. Lute: Ambassador of the United States to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

ATO has been the bed- just as we have at every turning Today NATO is evolving, rock of global security for point in the Alliance’s history. and the future of the Alliance over 65 years, united in As the U.S. Ambassador is being defined as we confront its commitment to contributing to NATO, it is my privilege to new challenges. NATO is once to a Europe whole, free and at work at NATO Headquarters in again at a strategic inflection peace. The watershed events Brussels alongside my 27 fellow point. After 20 years of out-ofof the last 12 months—from NATO Ambassadors. We fo- area operations in the first in the crisis in the Balkans and We Allies have a commitment to solidarity because Ukraine in the later in Afghaneast to the rise istan, the Allitoday’s security challenges impact everyone.” of extremism ance now faces to the south— challenges dihave fundamentally changed cus every day on building and rectly on NATO’s borders. At our security environment. At maintaining close relationships, the Wales Summit in SeptemNATO, we are committed to and advancing the work of the ber 2014, President Obama and meeting these new challenges, NATO Alliance. the other NATO leaders chart-

ed a way ahead, which we are implementing today. NATO’s new Readiness Action Plan, or RAP, will ensure our forces are ready to respond. RAP outlines a set of measures that demonstrate our commitment to the collective defense of all Allies, including increasing Baltic Air Policing, maintaining persistent multi-national training land exercises along our eastern flank, increasing maritime patrols in the Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea, and increasing AWACS air surveillance flights. At the same time RAP also puts in place adaption measures, such as the new rapid-reaction Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), the establishment of NATO command and control centers in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, and the reinforcement of a corps-level regional headquarters in Poland. Leaders at the Wales Summit also reaffirmed the value we place on our partnerships with more than 40 nations by commissioning two new partnership programs: the Enhanced Opportunities Partnership program (EOP) and the Defense Capacity Building (DCB) initiative. The first facilitates even closer cooperation with NATO partners who, based on their commitment and participation in operations and training with NATO over the last decade, are the most interoperable with NATO military operations. The second leverages NATO’s expertise in advising and assisting nations with defense and security reforms, similar to the programs NATO developed in building the Afghanistan National Se-

curity Forces. These programs ensure that NATO continues to invest in its partners. NATO is a consensus-based organization; we take key decisions with all 28 Allies in agreement. Our work, therefore, is deliberate -- decisions can require long hours of negotiations and a strong desire for unity to agree on the

preserve our security, freedom and liberty tomorrow. As young professionals, your opinions, questions and concerns about security and stability in Europe matter. NATO is your Alliance and you have a stake in our future. Today, we are confronting a security environment like never before. The challenges that lay

Amb. Douglas E. Lute

details. But, on the other hand, a NATO decision is backed by all 28 Allies, so NATO decisions reflect legitimacy and have staying power. We Allies have a commitment to solidarity because today’s security challenges impact everyone. The decisions we take today are meant to

ahead are formidable -- but together, our nations, our Alliance and our commitment to freedom are a powerful deterrent.

opinion poll NATO is still with us, but is it valued by

your region as it was during the Cold War? Felix F. Seidler:

Jana Žilková:

Katrina Allikas:

Y Y N

PhD candidate at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University, Germany

Project Coordinator at the Slovak Atlantic Commission

Secretary General of the latvian Transatlantic Organisation

The way Germans value NATO has surely changed. During the Cold War, with Germany at the frontline, NATO was its ultimate guarantee of freedom. Therefore, the Alliance was of existential relevance. Today, neither politicians nor the German public have much enthusiasm for NATO’s crisis management or its dealing with the emerging security challenges. However, as recent polls show, the majority of Germans continue to value NATO as an instrument for collective defence. In future, the way Germany values NATO will not depend on what NATO is, but rather on what NATO does. Given NATO’s plans to focus on collective defence in the upcoming years, the Alliance can expect to receive the necessary political and public support from Germany.

NATO represented an enemy, threat and a group of states with “dangerous” democratic values and norms for the countries of the Eastern bloc during the Cold War. After a long and harsh path when Slovakia became a member of NATO, our country and the whole nation rightfully celebrated a new beginning and vision of a better future. However, just after 11 years of being a member country, our nation devoted to enhancing transatlantic relations, has lost its passion and motivation for being an enthusiastic member of NATO. On the contrary, it seems that Slovakia values the NATO allies more than ever when facing an immediate threat from Russia, after the Crimea annexation which indeed bolstered the Alliance on the whole. On the other hand, in order to return back to NATO “joyful times”, both the organisation and the government need to think about public awareness communicated in a more sensible and conscious tone.

Times are different, and the war is different too. The political and moral clarity of the Cold War era is now gone. Over the past year we have witnessed that the postCold War world order can be changed: Russia is flexing its muscles near and far from our borders. But the Baltics in the EU and NATO have no reason to be afraid. Europe needs small countries, such as ourselves, and we need Europe. For our strength lies not in our size - it comes from our belief in the power of a democratic society. We made this belief of ours heard twenty-six years ago, when people across the Baltics came together in one of the greatest displays of freedom and non-violent resistance that the world has ever seen. I believe we have grown significantly having learned that we cannot look at NATO as our saviour in case something goes wrong. We are NATO. And thus we have just as much responsibility for collective defence and common security as any other European country. Estonia already spends 2% of its GDP on defence, and soon, Latvia and Lithuania will do so too. It shows that we are strong because we believe in our partnerships and value obligations within them. A country can either be in NATO or outside of it - frankly, there are no other options, and expectations can be raised only with a membership accompanied by an investment in the Alliance. Cooperation requires money, energy and time. The more we respect that, the better off we are. And with that, no other nation gets to veto our security decisions or the freedom of our citizens.

OPINION

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NATO in the 21st Century: From Tanks to Little Green Men Countering the Kremlin’s Information War NATO: Still the Beating Heart of the Transatlantic Relationship? How to Engage Young Professionals in Securing the Values of Our Alliance for the Future?

The contributions should incorporate at least one of the following criteria: • p romote transatlantic and international understanding • foster the development of a shared sense of transatlantic identity and cooperation • identify strengths and weaknesses of the transatlantic cooperation • provide effective way of feedback of young people to policies of current leaders in the transatlantic region

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Times are different, and the war is different too. The political and moral clarity of the Cold War era is now gone. Over the past year we have witnessed that the post-Cold War world order can be changed: Russia is flexing its muscles near and far from our borders. But the Baltics in the EU and NATO have no reason to be afraid. Europe needs small countries, such as ourselves, and we need Europe. For our strength lies not in our size - it comes from our belief in the power of a democratic society. We made this belief of ours heard twenty-six years ago, when people across the Baltics came together in one of the greatest displays of freedom and non-violent resistance that the world has ever seen. I believe we have grown significantly having learned that we cannot look at NATO as our saviour in case something goes wrong. We are NATO. And thus we have just as much responsibility for collective defence and common security as any other European country. Estonia already spends 2% of its GDP on defence, and soon, Latvia and Lithuania will do so too. It shows that we are strong because we believe in our partnerships and value obligations within them. A country can either be in NATO or outside of it - frankly, there are no other options, and expectations can be raised only with a membership accompanied by an investment in the Alliance. Cooperation requires money, energy and time. The more we respect that, the better off we are. And with that, no other nation gets to veto our security decisions or the freedom of our citizens. The following projects are ineligible: academic theses and publications, projects which receive funding through other grant open calls from all other institutions Copyright: The Slovak Atlantic Commission reserve the right to reproduce the contributed material for presentation, media and promotional purposes. Responsibility: The organisers cannot be held responsible for the cancellation, postponement or modification of the competition due to unforeseen circumstances, nor will they be responsible for any theft, loss, delay or damage during the transport of applications. Acceptance of regulations: Participation in the competition implies full acceptance of the above rules. The competition was organised thanks to support of the United States Mission to NATO.

op-eds

Is Counterinsurgency an Option in Fight Against Boko Haram?

Edgaras Katinas: Student of Master Programme in Holocaust and Genocide Studies, Uppsala, Sweden

n 2015, the EU needs to face up to the mounting challenges coming from the heartlands of Africa. It needs to work with its African partners to ur-

whose name translates “Western influence is a sin”, are jihadist warriors against the Western influence. They blame the West that Muslims lost their faith in

(around 50% of the total population). A lot has been said and written about the brutality and crimes of Boko Haram; therefore, this article is going to look

In this photo taken Wednesday, April 8, 2015, Nigerian Soldiers man a check point in Gwoza, Nigeria, a town newly liberated from Boko Haram. (AP Photo/Lekan Oyekanmi)

gently find a regional solution to the threat of Boko Haram before it spirals across borders, and out of control. Boko Haram, 28

Islam due to globalisation. Nigeria, that is rich in oil and is Africa’s largest economy, is home for over 80 million Muslims

from a different prism at the situation in Nigeria. The Nigerian government has received the Western support in their fight

against the terrorist organisation, however, the way this fight is conducted and the extensive human rights violations caused by inefficient governmental attempts to stop Boko Haram are rarely spoken about. Nigeria has been spiralling down towards a civil war, where the governmental forces are fighting the rebels that gain more and more support in certain areas of the country. Boko Haram conducted its operations more or less peacefully during the first seven years of its existence, withdrawing from society into remote north-eastern areas. The government therefore repeatedly ignored warnings about the increasingly militant character of the organization. This is a typical pattern for the upcoming atrocities as similar escalation of the events

frequently killed. In most cases those are young boys who are for the military look ‘suspicious’, for instance having scars or strong bone structures. This leads us to think that the ordinary Nigerian population is standing between two fires – the rebel groups and the governmental counterinsurgents. In scholarly terms, counterinsurgency has four tactics to reach its goals: counter terror, population resettlement, scorched earth, and non-violent civic action. The evidence from Nigeria show that the government has already implemented two out of four tactics, using counter terror and population resettlement. The aim is to stop the increasing civilian support for the rebels. However, in a country where poverty has been rocketing, joining Boko

problem’s roots will remain the same – societal degradation and social exclusion caused by extreme poverty. The hard power has not proven to be the right choice and history has shown this. The West should, therefore, implement a mixture of soft and hard power – smart power – which would aim to deteriorate the strength of Boko Haram, however, would contribute towards the growth in living standards in Nigeria. It is true that between 2009 and 2013, EU aid to Nigeria – most of it from the 10th European Development Fund – totalled about €700m, however, was this amount used correctly? It is noteworthy to bear in mind that Nigeria is 136 out of 175 in Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, with political corruption being one

We cannot sit silent and let innocent people be killed by their own state. took place in, for example, Guatemala prior to the Guatemalan Civil War. Today, the Nigerian government uses counter terror tactics and indirect population resettlement to intimidate ordinary Nigerians. The difference between any ordinary militia group and Boko Haram is that the latter proclaims its acts in the name of Islam, which is a deadly motto for a country where the population, according to the religious believes (Christians or Muslims), is split almost in half. By targeting non-Muslims and those who are “westernised Muslims”, Boko Haram creates chaos and panic in the country. Similarly, the governmental counterinsurgency action targets those who supposedly support Boko Haram. However, evidence from former governmental military personnel and Amnesty International reports reveal that those targeted by counterinsurgency forces are often unrelated to the rebels, but they are still tortured and

Haram helps those unemployed and poor to get at least some income or food. Therefore, despite the governmental actions Boko Haram shows no signs of weakening, on the contrary it gets stronger which becomes a big threat for the regional, as well as international security. Several states, including France, the UK and US, pledged assistance to Nigeria by sharing intelligence, training the Nigerian military and joint efforts to create a regional counter-terrorism strategy. However, this solution is fruitless in presence of tremendously severe human rights violations that the governmental forces commit on a daily basis. The solution for the Boko Haram problem would not come by supporting the government, because, in my opinion, the issue rose due to difficult living-conditions. This means that by supporting the government, we will only torture and kill more possibly innocent people, however, the

of the major problems. Evidently with figures like this, we cannot believe that the money was used for the right purpose. Therefore, the solution for the Boko Haram could only bring some results if the governmental army is joined by international partners, coming from the West or neighbouring African states. We cannot sit silent and let innocent people be killed by their own state. Similarly, we cannot let Boko Haram spread and gain more influence. I believe that military cooperation, in terms of personnel, along with investments in NGO and non-governmental sectors would give good foundation for Nigeria to stabilise its security situation. It is important to remember that security does not stand for only personal safety, it stands for security in the fields of food, society, community.

op-eds

Elections as Insecurity Providers

henever we read news about elections, either happening or about to happen, outside of the Western (EU/NATO) space we are confronted with episodes of

problem. Elections are an important ritual that binds the citizens to its representatives on a temporary and agenda-limited basis. Elections are a mechanism of power-transfer inside

Tiago Ferreira Lopes: VotingAid Professor at ZEF, Finland gain such preeminence in the non-Western, post-colonial and post-soviet space? In the 1980’s/1990’s, there was a wide supported theory, amongst researchers and policy-mak-

A Sudanese woman pauses before casting her ballot at a polling station, on the first day of Sudan’s presidential and legislative elections. (AP Photo/Mosa’ab Elshamy)

violence and institutional disruption. We might be tempted to blame elections for raising insecurity, but elections are just a natural epilogue of a deeper 30

democratic societies. Nevertheless, elections are not, and should not be understood as, the core of democracy. So why elections did

ers, that democracy would be consolidated by electoral-repetition. I am naturally oversimplifying the theory in question, but the main point was that the

more elections a country would have, the more democratic the country would become because elections would “open” the door for all the other democratic pillars. In other words, democracy was equated with elections. Of course, certain rules and procedures were to be observed in order to validate the electoral parade but the main point remained untouched: elections were the beginning and the end of democracy. A country would be more and more democratic just by having elections. If electoral-repetition would be enough to consolidate democracy events, like Kyrgyzstan’s Second Revolution in 2010, the Arab Season (in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Syria) and the Ukraine crisis would never have happened.

and to thrive) needs of other structural pillars instead of just a working economy. So what is missing? Two elements seem to have been forgotten too often: the rule of law and civil society. Elections will come later. Again, I ask the reader to be forgiving for my over simplistic explanation. In order to have elections as tools for democratic consolidation, and not as insecurity providers, it is important to re-learn how to trigger and nurture transitions from autocratic to authoritarian states. It is indeed essential to have a good economic environment but a good economic environment in a country unable to have a meaningful rule of law (meaning that legal procedures are the “only game in town”) will lead to the emergence of more Kazakhstan’s and Libya’s.

came the end game and not the starting point. Elections are only insecurity providers because in several new democracies there was no attention given to ideas like political agenda, transparency and accountability. Without those three core-ideas elections are not a democratic power transfer tool but only a ritualized mechanism to stamp power by power. Elections are only insecurity providers because they were given a leading role on a play in which they should be only part of the crew. Elections are only insecurity providers because elections, when put on a primary position, can indeed scrutinize the political elite but there are no mechanisms to scrutinize the elections transforming them into a perilous power device. In other

Democratic consolidation, and the normalization of electoral cycles will only take place in a substantive manner when the West is willing to acknowledge that what we did in countries like Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan was wrong and that we need to change and reform. In the 1990’s early 2000’s elections lost some of their dominium. Researchers and policy-makers were now supporting the idea of the “Washington Consensus”, that basically argues that economic development leads necessarily to democratic consolidation. Reality, however, seems to show the opposite that economic development entrenches local elites and minimizes the stimulus to have a meaningful regime change like we have seen in Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia and even in Russia. Economic pain, on the other hand, made countries like Moldova, Tunisia and Burkina Faso to double their efforts towards institutional transformation to allow democratic consolidation. For the “Washington Consensus” supporters the elections are, indeed, understood mostly as a tool that helps to build democracy in combination with a wide array of other instruments. What they seem to disregard is that democracy (to be installed

If economy works decently and law is also majorly respected but there is no civil society to provide contestation, meaningful and continuous opposition, then we might have new Azerbaijan’s and Egypt’s on the making. However, if elections are the only requirement to claim the installation of a democratic regime, then elections will become a mechanism to validate the authority of a certain elite instead of being a way to transfer power (on a temporary and agenda-limited basis) from the individual citizen to the representative that can act its name. Elections are only insecurity providers because they are not coupled with this wide array of instruments needed to transform autocratic regimes into democratic regimes. Elections are only insecurity providers because they are understood as being the focus of political system instead of being perceived as a tool. Elections are insecurity providers because they be-

words, democratic consolidation needs to happen by the instigation and construction of democratic culture (long, costly and tricky process) that will allow for substantive transformation at the societal level and de-emphasize the focus on elections. Once elections are taken out of the spotlight to its rightful place as a power transfer tool of all democratic regimes but not as the core pillar of those same democratic regimes, we will see that elections are in fact security providers: they allow for power transfers to happen in an institutionalized, ritualized, uncertainty-free environment. Democratic consolidation, and the normalization of electoral cycles (ending with all these security concerns), will only take place in a substantive manner when the West is willing to acknowledge that what we did in countries like Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan was wrong and that we need to change and reform. 31

op-eds

From Decidophobia to Utopia

Adrian J. Neumann: Research Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel, Germany

ATO’s credibility to be a fence and deterrence in their Malaysia flight MH17. force for good and be- communication with their own The fact that these altering prepared and able to people. native views, also spread by do what it takes to live up to As a consequence the Russia Today, resonate with a its own stated goals has been notorious underfunding of the wider audience does not come shaken. national defence forces, now as a surprise as the gaps beRed line after red line has blamed on austerity, has mas- tween the noble messages and been crossed from Syria, to ISIS sively limited NATO’s capabil- reality in NATO’s past missions in Iraq to Ukraine. From the Bu- ities in Europe by default. The are easily noticeable like lipstick dapest agreement to the Minsk sunk-in utopian idea of Europe on a pig. agreement - the Westphalian as an island of effortless eternal The politically set mission principles have been shattered peace “sans soucis” has further goals of state building, democin Europe yet European NATO led to massive staffing prob- racy and women’s’ rights in Afcountries stand united only in lems for the armed forces fur- ghanistan were unattainable for decidophobia. ther worsened by an ongoing the military based on the proWith all battles won but demographic shift. vided means. Still this has not the post-conflicts lost from Iraq, While Bagdad, Kabul and stopped western governments Afghanistan to Libya, stunned Benghazi were portrayed as to publicly hail the Afghanistan by Russia’s moves on Crimea worth fighting, killing and be- mission a success and the demand Ukraine, and still with the ing killed for by governments ocratic endoskeleton pushed mark of Cain of the Iraq war on around Europe that rallied for onto the country as its its conscience, proof. Ripping European allies have been spending the so called a large and Kosovo out of part of the Serbia’s flank “Peace Dividend” while ignoring the importance of the public in does serve as topics of defence and deterrence in their Western Euanother poor ropean counexample for communication with their own people. tries appears the respect for apologetic and appeasing to- public support under the ban- the rule of law or the legitimawards Russia’s moves and suspi- ners of democracy and the cy of supranational bodies’ und cious of the motives of the USA, “responsibility to protect”, the undermines any claims on that while their parliaments appear same governments now beat ground in other theatres and hesitant to acknowledge and around the bush when it comes occasions. properly address the current se- to defence of Mariupol and As the Peace Dividend in curity challenges in Ukraine Narva. Europe turns out to be finite, This should not come as Along the same tune European NATO members need a surprise considering the ig- we see a vocal group of peo- to address those challenges norance towards the topic of ple in western social media as of credibility as they impede national and alliance securi- well as on the streets in West- NATO’s strategic leverage to ty and defence by European ern Europe that accuse NATO impact events in Europe and governments over the past de- of alleged aggressive posture abroad. cade. European allies have been and war mongering in Ukraine That strategic leverage is a spending the so called “Peace while themselves turning two product of capabilities and poDividend” while ignoring the blind eyes to the annexation of litical will. importance of the topics of de- Crimea or the downing of Air While the capability gap

may be closed more easily as imperfections we find in the reas migrants don’t flood to autothe gap is clearly visible, i.e. ality of NATO members’ actions: cratic Hybrid-Systems but seek 2%, the political will not to look the values on which the trans- a life in the liberal democracies the other way and to free-ride atlantic community is build are of Europe often putting their but accept the gloomy reality noble and inspiring: in its wake lives on the line to reach them. and communicate in an openly the people in Europe benefit In face of the white and with the public requires politi- from a rule-based order that grey psychological operations cal capital which needs to be produces opportunities for undertaken by Russia to unregained. each individual and protects dermine our democratic liberal To get this capital back, their human rights and their European order we need chamEuropean pions on the inNATO memside of Europe. In face of the white and grey psychological operations bers must The risk asked use the moto be taken by undertaken by Russia to undermine our democratic m e n t u m each politician, liberal European order we need champions provided by by each editor, Russia’s agby each social on the inside of Europe.” gressive posleader and by ture to promote an honest and freedoms. each citoyen to stand up for open debate inside their counIn direct comparison of those values and help preservtries what unites us, our values values in an open debate it will ing them seems small comand principles and why they are show that the Hybrid-Systems pared to risk carried by those worth defending. or “managed democracies” of who cross continents and the While this debate is not a Russian type have little to of- sea to find them in Europe.

NATO –Hands of Ukraine” at a protest in Germany in April 2015 Source: http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/oestermaersche-101~magnifier_pos-0.html

stand-off between Communism & Capitalism, it must be clear that there is a choice to be made between two systems: Liberal Democracy vs. Hybrid-Systems that mimic democratic systems but cannot deliver the benefits to their people. Allowing self criticism in the debate is critical to gain credibility and will help develop more soft power than Russia will ever achieve. Despite all mistakes and

fer to the individual used to the benefits of a liberal democratic society. The reported number of over 4000 citizens who died either during their arrest, in police custody or in the penitentiary system in Russia in 2012 alone should allow every individual to make up his or her mind in which system he or she prefers to live and wishes to support. Outside of Europe and Russia the view is unambiguous

Let this serve us as a reminder not to take the achievement of liberal democracy, rule of law and the freedom of speech for granted. And let it serve all European NATO members as a wakeup call to get of the comfortable fence as Decidophobia may turn the “Europe, whole, free and at peace” - into Utopia.

quiz 1. _______ has been President of Uruguay since his inauguration in March 2015. He is not a stranger to presidency as he was in power from 2005 to 2010. The new president calls for a dialogue on issues facing the country such as improvements to public education, health and housing. a) Jose Mujica b) Raúl Sendic c) Tabare Vazquez d) Rodolfo Nin Novoa

a) Texas b) California c) Indiana d) Arizona 3. Saudi Arabia and Arab allies continue with air strikes at the Shiite Houthi rebels and allied army units, who have taken over most of Yemen. Early on the morning of March 26th the kingdom said it had started a military operation in this neighbouring country to push back the Houthis and reinstate the “legitimate government” of President _______. a) Ali Abdullah Saleh b) Mohammed Ali al-Houthi c) Khaled Bahah d) Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi 4. Since the beginning of 2015, Japan and China make efforts to ease tensions over rival territorial claims to islands in the East China Sea. Senior Chinese and Japanese officials met in March in order to hold their first significant talks on security since _______. a) 2011 b) 2012 c) 2008 d) 2009

5. In April 2015, the U.S. State Department recommended that the White House should remove _______ from the list of countries that the U.S. government says sponsor terrorism. Obama is expected to agree, although it is not clear whether he will announce his decision during the Summit of the Americas in Panama. a) Nicaragua b) Venezuela c) Guatemala d) Cuba 6. The 8th of April is the International day of _______. a) Kurds b) Indians c) Basques d) Romanies 7. On 16th March 2015, President Vladimir Putin made his first public appearance after a ten-day absence that had fuelled speculations about a power struggle in the Kremlin or even about Putin´s serious health problems. Putin met with _______ in the Constantine Palace in Saint Petersburg for talks. Commenting on suggestions, president Putin said that life without rumours would be boring. a) Kyrgyzstan’s president, Almazbek Atambayev b) Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras c) Chinese foreign Minister, Wang Yi d) Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi

8. For the first time in Africa’s most populous nation´s history, the opposition defeated the ruling party in broadly peaceful democratic elections. _______, a former military dictator supposedly turned democrat, was elected president of Nigeria, defeating the incumbent who graciously accepted the result. a) Goodluck Jonathan b) Muhammadu Buhari c) Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua d) Aminu Bashir Wali 9. _______ will be held from 30 November to 11 December 2015 in Paris. It will be a crucial and important conference, as it needs to achieve a new international agreement on the climate, applicable to all countries, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C. a) The United Nations Climate Change Conference b) The Greenhouse-gas Emissions Regulating Conference c) The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment d) International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology 10. On 1st January 2015, its government lodged a declaration under article 12(3) of the Rome Statute accepting the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC). _______ formally attained membership of the International Criminal Court in April 2015. a) Cook Islands b) Sudan c) Egypt d) Palestine

correct answers: 1C, 2B, 3D, 4A, 5D, 6D, 7A, 8B, 9A, 10D

2. _______ suffered four years of severe drought and its lowest ever recorded winter snowpack. Water crisis cannot be solved without pricing the stuff properly and dealing with those who consume the most. On 1st April 2015, for the first time, restraints were imposed on water use.

CALENDAR April 24

100th Anniversary of the Armenian Genocide

Early Presidential Election in Kazakhstan

EU Day of Solidarity between Generations

May 3

World Press Freedom Day

Victory over Fascism Day (Europe Day)

UK General Election

Presidential Election of the Republic of Poland

60th Anniversary of the Warsaw Pact

June 15

The 800th Anniversary of Magna Carta

General Election of the Republic of Turkey

7-8

G7 Summit

9-14

Bilderberg Meeting in Telfs (Bilderberg is an annual conference designed to foster dialogue between Europe and North America)

19-21

GLOBSEC Bratislava Global Security Forum 35

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