Euro-Atlantic Magazine think.act.lead. 4/2016 by GLOBSEC Academy Centre

4/2016

From Bratislava to Rome: New EU on the Way?

An institutionalist perspective on EMU’s future by Pierre Schlosser Bratislava Summit Reflections by Marek Lenč The possibility of Serbia’s accession to the European Union by Branko Lazic European Army: Three Unanswered Questions by Soeren Kern

in this issue 4

headlines

in depth An institutionalist perspective on EMU’s future by Pierre Schlosser Grey Zone by Kacper Rekawek

Grey Zone

Bratislava Summit Reflection

Fallout of the Trump Campaign

Brexit’s future is in Switzerland

interview with Heidi Marleen Kuhlmann

EU insight Bratislava Summit Reflection by Marek Lenč

history chapter From Rome to Bratislava: 60th Anniversary of the Treaty of Rome by Tomáš Hrozenský

on the map Are There Any Perspectives The possibility of Serbia’s accession to the European Union by Branko Lazic

op-eds Fallout of the Trump Campaign by Stanislav Matějka Brexit’s future is in Switzerland by Eléonore Garnier European Army: Three Unanswered Questions by Soeren Kern

visegrad news

calendar

quiz

editorial

Sonˇa Trojanová Europe has been going through a lot of changes in the recent years; the European Union itself has faced many challenges, both internal and external, which had a significant impact on its position as a partner in the international arena. Since its very beginnings, the Union has been trying to follow three principles: peace, adhering to its founding values, and well-being of its nations. Generally speaking, it strives towards these goals by relying on the authority it was granted by a history of establishing contracts. The recent events, however, have shaken the European Union to its core. Notably, the word-play “Brexit” has conquered the list of the most widely used expressions in the media; and ever since the British referendum, the amount of related questions that are in need of answers only grows. When it comes to the co-

hesion of the Union, many experts agree that it is not solely in hands of its most stable members anymore. This is precisely why we choose to bring you different perspectives on possible changes that future might hold for us. It is crucial though, that we remind ourselves of the political, economic and institutional potential that the European Union has always had – something that has enabled it to face many difficult situations and crises, eventually becoming the strong and responsible leader that it is today. Having ascended to the presidency of the European Council in July 2016, Slovakia has now an opportunity to steer the Union towards better solutions to the issues that keep us occupied the most. Do we need more or less of Europe? What should the negotiations with Great Britain look like? Will there be a common European army? These are the questions that European leaders tried their best to address at the Bratislava Summit this September. Moreover, the future of Europe might also depend a lot on the results of American presidential elections – yet another reason for Slovakia to actively participate in the ongoing transatlantic discussions as much as possible during its presidency. Additionally, Europe is being challenged by an ever increasing number of terrorist attacks. Unfortunately, terror tactics have been developing on a much faster rate than the cooperation and information-sharing capacities of EU’s member states. Utilizing abrupt violence to incite

instability and social distress effectively creates mistrust among citizens and their governments. It is therefore imperative that we also dedicate enough space to the topic of terrorism in this issue. We invite you to explore this subject with us, as we reflect upon the premise of “the new age of terrorism” - an age in which we seem to be facing off against an apparently uncontrollable global phenomenon. Despite all the intimidating challenges to be overcome, entering the European Union still remains a goal to aspire to for all the candidate countries motivated by a vision of future political, economic and social improvement. In this issue we zoom in on Serbia as another prospective member of the EU. In spite of numerous (mainly internal) obstacles in its way, this Balkan country steadily follows the path towards its future membership. Dear readers, allow me to welcome you on the pages of this special edition of Euro-Atlantic! magazine entitled From Bratislava to Rome: “New EU on the Way?“ Let me especially welcome the participants of Globsec Tatra Summit 2016, who have an exclusive chance to read the new volume of the magazine online or also via GLOBSEC Tatra Summit 2016 Application. The editorial board of the Euro-Atlantic! hopes that the articles we have prepared for you will provide an enriching read. We invite you to keep in touch with us on Facebook, as well as on Twitter at @EuroAtlanticMag. 3

headlines FARC-Colombia´s US presidential Is CETA ceasefire election really over? agreement One of the most intense conflicts in Latin America is now hopefully approaching its end. On 23 June 2016, Colombian government and the left-wing guerilla FARC reached a ceasefire agreement in Havana, Cuba. The 297-pages-long treaty signed by President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño, better known as Timochenko, demands that rebels stop fighting, gradually surrendering their weapons to UN observers, and that their attitudes be expressed via establishing a formal political party in order to reintegrate the ex-rebels into the Colombian society. This ceasefire agreement represents significant progress in Colombia’s 52-year armed conflict which has affected every Colombian citizen. The conflict caused death to more than 220,000 people and forced many to relocate. Numerous parties participated in difficult negotiations, including leaders from the United States, Mexico, El Salvador, Uruguay, Cuba and the United Nations. One of the main conditions for a lasting peace treaty to become effective was its approval by the Colombian nation in a referendum, which was held on 2 October this year. Surprisingly, Colombians voted “NO” by a narrow margin. Many citizens were bothered by the fact that this agreement would help rebel leaders ensure their impunity despite their full complicity in killing both soldiers and civilians, as well as in extortion and kidnappings. Both president J.M. Santos and commander T. Jimenez accepted the result of the referendum, proclaiming that the agreed ceasefire remains in force.

The United States presidential election scheduled for 8 November 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Traditionally, American presidential elections have always been actively followed by the media. Even though this year’s campaigning often bore resemblance to lowbrow popular entertainment, the process of electing the new president is actually a rather complicated one. Between February and June, a series of primary presidential elections held around all the states of the nation designated the most promising candidates. Shortly thereafter, two final candidates emerged, as republicans nominate Donald Trump, previously known to the American public as a successful businessman, while the democrats’ choice rests on Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State. Although either Trump and Clinton would be the oldest elected president, much was left to be desired when it comes to maturity of this year’s campaigning period, which seemed to revolve more around the personality clash between the two than around actual discussions about differences in planned policies. Their visions of future foreign policy were to a large extent outlined in several presidential debates, where among questions concerning Clinton’s email controversy or allegations of sexual harassment against Donald Trump, the moderators often inquired about candidate’s standpoints on terrorism, immigration, US-Russian relations and Syrian civil war. While Trump has promoted a resolute America-first foreign policy strategy, suggesting not all countries of NATO should be supported by the US; Clinton promised to use diplomacy to quell problems abroad, standing by US allies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, whilst standing her ground in respect to rivals such as Russia and China.

Regional government of Wallonia, a French-speaking region of Belgium, refused to give its approval on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), thus effectively blocking the deal with Canada. Belgian constitution states that each regional government has to approve any deal before it can be signed by the federal government. For the trade agreement to enter into force, all 28 member states have to give their consent. The reason given is that Wallonia sees CETA as a threat to farmers, as well as to food and welfare standards. CETA is a new deal negotiated between the European Union and Canada between 2009 and 2014. It represents one of the new-generation trade treaties, promising to eliminate 98% of all trade tariffs. Supporters of the agreement argue that it would increase trade between the subjects by 20%. However, lower product standards and undue protection of big businesses is strongly criticized. The European Parliament president Martin Schulz remains optimistic and maintains that the free-trade deal may yet be signed, pointing out the possibility to resolve the problematic issues. In response, Wallonia claims that once labour protection, as well as environmental and consumer standards are well-renegotiated, the regional government will grant its approval. Although the European Commission remains hopeful about CETA, the situation points towards difficult times for free trade deals between the EU and US, China or India.

Rise of conservative right-wing party AfD before federal elections in 2017

EU-Turkey visa liberalisation talks continue

China’s journey to the foreground at this year’s G20 summit

The upcoming federal elections in Germany, preceded by general elections, promise unclear results. In March, some of the larger German states - Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt - cast their ballot in favour of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). At the beginning of September, Angela Merkel has suffered defeat in her constituency of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Christian Democratic Union (CDU) acquired its all-time lowest result, 19%, with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the right-wing populists AfD coming atop of them. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has been governed by SPD-CDU coalition, mirrored at the federal level. German government´s strategy during refugee crisis has increased support for the AfD. This party does not only represent a nationalist and social-conservative movement splitting the overall conservative block in its middle, but it also embodies the disputes between those in favour of pro-European and neoliberal policy on one hand (CDU/ CSU), and a nationalist-traditionalist and social-conservative stance on the other (AfD). With the refugee and migration crisis being the dominant topics of these elections, AfD continues in a remarkable streak of electoral victories at the regional level. The right-wing populistic party founded on an anti-euro ticket three years ago is now represented in nine state parliaments. Results in regional elections do not impact the federal government directly. However, they do raise many question about the upcoming federal elections, as Angela Merkel (in power since 2005) has not yet confirmed that she will run for another term in 2017.

After the migration crisis peak in summer 2015, Turkey and the European Union were struggling to manage the refugees from war-torn countries – a situation which brought a number of new challenges. Previously, these relations were dictated by EU’s Action Plan, until the situation changed for both actors. According to several world journals, the biggest opportunity Turkey has had in autumn came with EU’s offer of visa liberalisation, given in return of Turkey’s agreeing to take back migrants crossing the Aegean Sea to Greece (thus effectively entering the Schengen zone). Helping the EU safeguard Schengen from illegal immigration, Turkey is now waiting for the European Parliament to officially confirm the promised visa free deal. In practice, this deal will mean that Turks will have a chance to get threemonth short-stay Schengen visa, which however does not grant them the ability to seek employment. Still, countries such as Ireland, UK and Cyprus will require Turks to have visa, as they are not a part of the Schengen area. Furthermore, there is the long- running issue with the Republic of Cyprus, which is a full member of the EU but is not recognized by Turkey.

On 4 – 5 September, China hosted the 2016 G20 meeting accompanied by a side event of G20 Leaders’ summit in the eastern city of Hongzhou. For the first time, G20 took up the role of a truly effective global governance institution with clearly defined institutional values of integration, openness and inclusiveness. Stressing these values and focusing on the themes of economic leadership and progress, China projected confidence of a steadily developing country. To ensure that the debates are structurally inclusive, a large number of guests was invited from the developing world. The host also proposed an action plan for implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. G20 committed to global action concerning over-capacity in the steel industry, supporting further efforts to achieve fair taxation, and to common action in the current refugee crisis. The summit also revolved around the necessity to transform individual economies in more innovative and sustainable ways - innovation being the key element for tackling weak growth trends in the global economy. The general consensus was that countries should focus more on new industrial revolution, digital economy and finding synergies in G20 work streams, while protecting intellectual property rights and maintaining open trade and investment regimes. Among the headlines of the event was the joint ratification of the Paris agreement on climate change between China and the United States, appearing only a few hours before the summit offered a new promise of shared G20 leadership.

interview

Heide Marleen Kuhlmann: What kind of Germany for the future of European Union? Do we need a new narrative for the European Union? What should it be? The European Union needs a new vision and politicians who clearly endorse the common project. We have no time to lose if we want to stabilize the European Union. The euro needs to be reformed; we need more investment and common action to fight unemployment in the southern states. The practical solutions that have been found in the last months and years as responses to crises have often been mere muddling-through. Something had to be done, so something was done, but there was no drive, no aim and too little solidarity. We have seen this in the economic crisis only last year: Grexit was averted, but no satisfying solution has been found for Greece yet. Without a debt cut, the Greek people might still suffer for decades. And as youth unemployment remains at 42%, we have a lost generation of young Greeks who grow up in a European Union that seems more like their enemy than their friend. And this is what has to be changed. The Greek people are suffering? Their health care system excludes the unemployed? Then together we have to find a solu6

tion that is viable and fits the standards and values we stand for. Another example of the muddling-through solutions of European decision-makers was certainly the migrant crisis. There was a lack of common vision and a lack of actual solidarity. In the migrant crisis, every country stood alone. This was a poor outcome for the EU. How to change this muddling-through dynamic? The Brexit process is the EU’s chance to get back on track. Even before the vote it was already clear that the UK referendum was a highly significant event in the development of the EU. Even if the British people had voted to stay, the UK would have tried to accentuate its special “half-in, half-out” position in the EU. As the Brits voted to leave, it’s the EU which is now able to set the tone and decide on future implications and role of the UK. Will they have a privileged access to the internal market without obligation of free movement of persons? It’s upon the EU to decide and not anymore upon the UK to negotiate exceptions from the rule. That is a significant change from the time before the referendum and an occasion for the EU to clarify certain important questions that have stayed unanswered during these last months: What does the EU stand for? What does it mean to be a member state? Which

are the rights and which are the duties of member states? Who controls these duties and what are the consequences if a country does not fulfil them? The risk right now is that we wait until the new governments in France and Germany are in office before we discuss these topics. That would be too late. A common direction has to be found rather sooner than later.

euro and for dismantling it in an organized way. Today, most academics left the party and it became more openly rightwing than before. The party has been quite successful in the last regional elections and is likely to have a good score in the parliamentary election. Still, the polls show that few of the voters really agree with the party programme and that most of them just want their voice to be One of the topics that is very heard in a strong opposition to present in Germany at the Merkel. moment is the rise of the nationalists... Germany is not the only country with a nationalist parGerman politics looked quite ty - How important are the uniform in the last decade. The elections in France for the polls generally attested to a franco-german couple? broad satisfaction with Merkel’s politics. Beside the “Grand co- National solutions cannot alition” of CDU and SPD, the solve problems on European opposition often had troubles scale. But a strong frenco-gerfinding a strong voice. Let’s take man couple can help affront one example: the abolition of these common challenges. For nuclear power in Germany. This sure, the franco-german rewas traditionally a topic of the cently went through difficult Greens and they got large sup- times. There was disagreement port after the Fukushima acci- in many points and it became dent happened in Japan. Still, harder than before to work out Merkel managed to make it her common solutions to European project and to absorb the public questions. One can hope, that support for the abolition. That this changes after 2017 as govis why this small opposition had ernments in both countries will difficult times making strong be newly set up. In the light of points. In contrast to that, the the Brexit, we need more than new right-wing populist par- ever a strong franco-german ty in Germany, Alternative für partnership with a vision for EuDeutschland, tries with all its rope. forces to disagree with Merkel’s politics. In the beginning, it was a party of a group of academics, interviewed by who were overall against the Martina Šinkovičová

eidi Marleen Kuhlmann is a project manager for European Politics and Communication at the Jacques Delors Institut – Berlin. Previously she worked as a press officer with responsibility for finance-related issues at the German Parliament and for DER SPIEGEL. She was awarded a scholarship by the German National Academic

Foundation, and studied European Policy and Franco-German Studies at the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms University in Bonn and the Sorbonne University in Paris, and European Interdisciplinary Studies at the College of Europe in Warsaw. Here she specialized in aspects of social policy.

BIO 7

in depth

An institutionalist perspective on EMU’s future Pierre Schlosser: Scientific Coordinator, Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute

n the summer of 1997 – almost twenty years ago – Chicago economist Milton Friedman highlighted in a famous op-ed that the creation of the euro was publicly justified by political reasons instead of economic arguments. In what looks with hindsight like a premonition, he further claimed that the constitution of Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), despite its objective to lead towards the unification of the continent, would be more likely to usher in ‘political disunity’. The euro crisis, which has almost torn the European continent apart, proved Friedman right. It illustrated that the euro should be regarded as a cornerstone both of Europe’s unity but also, sadly enough, of Europe’s disunity. There is indeed no mistaking the evidence that its initial institutional architecture agreed in Maastricht was not adequate to withstand ravaging market forces. While the genuine long term challenge ahead will be to devise the euro as a protective currency for European citizens, I argue that EMU’s greatest challenge, going forward, will be to simplify and increase the political salience of its central decision-making institutions. After all, it is unclear to the majority of Europeans who really sets European economic policy in

Signatures are seen on theTreaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union during an EU Summit in Brussel (AP Photo/Francois Lenoir, Pool)

EMU. This is an unsustainable situation for Europe’s democracies. Looking back, it is obvious that Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union has been subject to unprecedented and disruptive changes as a result of the euro crisis management. Acting in a permanent state of crisis, EU leaders hastily adopted a set of new rules on national budgets, created new crisis mechanisms such as the European Stability Mechanism and the Single Resolution Board and massively empowered the European Central Bank. The latter, acting as the currency’s ultimate guardian and stability anchor, saved the euro. Taken together, those significant transformations have affected and blurred EMU’s original balance between

centralized monetary policy on the one hand and decentralized economic policies on the other. The crisis abruptly exposed EMU countries to their genuine interdependence and also revealed that the insufficient centralization of economic policies was a source of disequilibrium. Crucially, the absence of any institutionalized fiscal “fire-fighting squad” proved to have devastating effects on the credibility of Europe’s single currency. In effect, EMU’s light economic governance was not up to speed for dealing with such an overwhelming set of events, leading to what was time and again referred to as a ‘too little too late’ crisis management pattern. A recurrent pattern of the crisis was that European

leaders proved unable to anticipate the crisis’ next developments. They usually preferred to plug the most pressing holes and wait and see what would happen next. To fill EMU’s lack of a political and fiscal centre,

bringing more simplicity and clarity to the chaos of EMU decision-making. Among those, the so-called Five Presidents Report, named after its main authors – the Presidents of the European Council, the European Commission, the Eurogroup, the European Central Bank and “There is indeed no mistaking the evidence that its the European Parliament, stood initial institutional architecture agreed in Maasout. It suggests an ambitious tricht was not adequate to withstand ravaging plan in three stages and paves the way towards further fiscal market forces.” and political unification in Eua vast institutional and regula- (the EU Council formation in rope. While the imperatives of tory change thus occurred and charge of Economic and Finan- ‘hard times’ was an argument resulted in EMU’s governance cial Affairs), the Eurogroup, the for short-term institutional enbecoming layered with new Euro Working Group, the Combodies, mechanisms and instru- mission’s DG ECFIN, DG COMP ments, in turn producing higher or DG FISMA do? Such institucomplexity and higher ambigu- tional proliferation has also led ity. This has pushed EMU’s gov- to an inter-institutional compeernance into a corner, with only tition that is set to be the name a few experts left to understand of EMU’s game until a genuine its exact nature and logic. To be political authority emerges. sure, there is no mistaking the Furthermore, it appears misevidence that, taken individ- leading to expect citizens to ually, the various institutional be able to decipher Europe’s choices made (e.g. creation of convoluted economic goverthe European Stability Mecha- nance when even several Euronism, Euro Summits; strength- pean policy-makers involved in ening of the European Council the files recognise that they do and of the Eurogroup; Six Pack, not understand how the rules Two Pack, etc) represented flex- work exactly and admit a lack of ible and logical solutions for comprehension of its processpolicy-makers operating under es. Muddling-through with a time pressure. high number of actors is thereHowever, in the absence fore costly for the legitimacy of of central political and institu- the European Union as a whole. tional mechanisms that simIn the end, EMU’s archiplify and clarify where political tecture has thus been the vic- Dr. Milton Friedman who won the 1976 responsibility lies exactly, Euro- tim of a spiritless, endless and, Nobel Prize for economics. Friedman pean citizens quite rightly per- at times even aimless institu- taught for 30 years at the University of ceive that all those instruments tional engineering. This has fu- Chicago and died in 2006 at age 94. Some and bodies dispose of a politi- elled the need to set out a clear professors and students at the university cal authority in some way. Can way forward on EMU’s future oppose the naming of a new institute after Friedman, saying the association with the an ‘average European citizen’ institutional shape. Such an economist’s hands-off economic prescripreasonably understand the dif- exercise took the form of nu- tions is increasingly troubling amid the ference between what the ECB merous roadmaps, blueprints global financial meltdown. (AP Photo/Eddie Adams, File) (the European Central Bank), and reports which aimed at the EBA (European Banking Authority), the ESM (European Stability Mechanism), the SRB (Single Resolution Board), the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), the ECOFIN

in depth gineering, the upcoming years should indeed be used to bring more clarity and effectiveness to Europe’s Economic and Mon-

of this peculiar nature of the report is that the European Council is not bound by any process to follow up on the timeline for

A European Union flag waves in the wind (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

etary Union. Yet, while its release in June 2015 stirred a debate on what is now called the ‘completion of EMU’, the Five Presidents Report seems increasingly likely to suffer the same fate as previous planning exercises and will end up at the bottom of the stack. Why? For two main reasons. First, because

implementation that the report had suggested. In reality, judging by the most recent references to the report made in the public sphere, they came from the Commission and the Parliament. The European Council, for its part, has however no appetite whatsoever to put the Report back on the agenda. The second reason behind the dis-

extremely timid in its intentions, the starting date of its second stage is unknown and the completion of stage three, where a ‘deep and stable EMU’ would be established, should be conducted ‘at the latest by 2025’. Overall, EMU’s fixing would require a long-term political commitment. Initiating institutional consolidation would necessitate that the European Council breaks away from its past tendency towards stalemate, reaches an agreement on the institutional direction it wants to give to the European Union and agrees on the necessity of Treaty change. Yet, heads of states and governments have been navigating by sight over the past years and only reached major decisions when they had their back against the wall. Given those past dynamics, chances are high that the institutional consolidation called for in the Five Presidents Report will remain an empty wish. The EMU polity’s complexity, inefficiency and unaccountability is thus set to be institutionalized further. Governments of those European countries participat-

“Yet, while its release in June 2015 stirred a debate on what is now called the ‘completion of EMU’, the Five Presidents Report seems increasingly likely to suffer the same fate as previous planning exercises and will end up at the bottom of the stack.” the report was never formally adopted and endorsed by the European Council which, in European practices, always marks the starting phase of a formal reform process. It must therefore be taken as what it is, an academic analysis coupled with an idealistic promise of a better tomorrow. As all promises, the Report only binds those who believe in them. The corollary 10

regard for the Five Presidents Report, despite its usefulness in charting a way forward on the institutional reform of EMU, is that the report internalised in its very implementation timeline two crucial milestones: the French presidential elections to be held in Spring 2017 and the German federal elections, to be held in Autumn 2017. As a result, the Report’s first stage is

ing in the euro are not ready to politically accept the fact that the euro cannot be governed by rules only. It requires a political centre. After all, if one had to reach a single conclusion about the Five Presidents Report it is that Europe has too many presidents. By contrast, Milton Friedman’s United States of America have only one who really matters…

Grey Zone

Kacper Rekawek, PhD.: Head of Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute

Iraqi forces are deployed during an offensive to retake Mosul from Islamic State militants outside Mosul, Iraq, Monday. Columns of Iraqi and Kurdish forces backed by U.S.-led airstrikes slowly advanced on Mosul from several directions, launching a long-awaited operation to retake Iraq’s second largest city from the Islamic State group. (AP Photo/Khalid Mohammed

slamic State of Iraq and Syria or ISIS/ISIL/Daesh, the current arch-terrorist organisation number 1 in the world, has a longstanding policy of abolishing the “grey zone.” It

without saying that we - firmly in the camp of ISIS enemies - cannot allow this organisation to abolish this zone as it would equal the commencement of World War III.

“But on the other hand it finds it hard to “go big” outside this turf – more than a half of its “provinces”, including a few virtual entities, are situated in Iraq and Syria, and some of its “international” entities are completely phoney.” aims to push the world to a binary, black-and-white conflict in which its “caliphate,” and its followers would face all of their enemies in a titanic, world-changing battle. It goes

Let’s stop here for a second and recap – a terrorist organisation aims to start World War III. This surely is unprecedented, unseen scale of ambition on behalf of any sub-state,

clandestine and illegal outfit. It sounds like a new age, a truly Copernican Revolution, is upon us. But is it really? Ironically enough, the truth is to be found in the “grey zone,” which ISIS plans to eradicate, i.e. in between the two opposite poles. To appreciate this construct, consider two assumptions:

1.This is a new age of terrorism.

Yes and no. Yes, because never before has the Western world faced a truly global terrorist adversary. But is ISIS global? It is first and foremost an Iraqi organisation – just read the speeches of its leaders, especially those pre11

in depth

Iraq’s elite counterterrorism forces (AP Photo/Khalid Mohammed, File)

ceding the organisation’s offensive in 2014, which catapulted it to global infamy. They are about local issues, and as the years go by, the organisation (although it reaches out to international audiences) still devotes most of the time to its “immediate” or “near enemies” – the Shia, the Saudis or the Sunnis oppos-

in its Nigerian outfit. Al-Qaeda had attempted to become a truly global phenomenon, and might still deliver (especially via its affiliates and friends in Syria), but also found going international hard with a membership of only a few hundred men. True, the anarchist terrorists of the late 19th/early

a breakthrough!” Rewind the tape even more and you come across horror and surprise with terrorists using TV (“Terrorism is theatre”), the shock of the first plane hijackings, and the first time explosive materials were used by anarchists. These were all “firsts”, and yet, as professor Richard English argues in his Does Terrorism Work?, the world is still standing. This is very much in evidence while attempting to take stock of the alleged mastery of ISIS in the realm of social media: yet another “first” which led to the establishment of a truly global terrorist brand but failed to prevent its decay throughout 2015 and 2016. In conclusion, ISIS has reached a new level of internationality but it is still not a global product. What is more, there had been attempts at going global before, and ISIS’ driving to accomplish this is not actually that shocking and novel.

“The shock of the first plane hijackings, and the first time explosive materials were used by anarchists.” ing it. It hardly even mentions Israel. Of course, it still has a massive international following which allows it, and this is truly unprecedented, to reach out to audiences beyond its home turf of the Sunni Arab heartland. But on the other hand it finds it hard to “go big” outside this turf – more than a half of its “provinces”, including a few virtual entities, are situated in Iraq and Syria, and some of its “international” entities are completely phoney. Just think of how well its Algerian representatives are doing or how much bad press it gets because of the infighting 12

20th century seemed global, or at least international, but they lacked a centralised hierarchy which would direct their terrorist activity. After all, they were called anarchists for a reason. No, because this is not the first time we are allegedly witnessing a seemingly omnipresent and omnipotent terrorist adversary threatening our

2. It is the age of remote control terrorism. Again, yes and no. New technology allows the likes of ISIS to use encrypted communication for operational purposes, e.g. tell the bomber which building to target mere minutes before he detonates his explosives, thus standing a

“ISIS has reached a new level of internationality but it is still not a global product.” lives. Go back some years and high chance of this conversastudy the headlines after 9/11: tion not being deciphered and “They now have planes; this is intercepted by security services.

This degree of control is truly unprecedented and suggests that terrorism leaders now have a remote control with which they can activate or de-activate their subordinates. However, their predecessors, who could not have such a control, tried hard to develop it. Naturally, the technology limited their success, but the likes of Carlos the Jackal or the IRA went through

remotely detonate their bombers. There might have been no or less of a remote control, but by various means the leaders of terrorist outfits always attempted to assert their dominance over deployed attackers or kidnappers. As years went by, they were getting closer to their preference for a complete operational control over a given terrorist plot. In conclusion,

with truly global success and presence which dominates the media discourse, as well as popular perception of the threat emanating from this organisation. Yes, the threat is real and unprecedented, mostly because of the strength ISIS gathered between 2011 and 2014, and due to how successful it was in luring thousands of foreigners into its ranks.

“Yes, the threat is real and unprecedented, mostly because of the strength ISIS gathered between 2011 and 2014, and due to how successful it was in luring thousands of foreigners into its ranks.” detailed operational plans with their superiors who were to prepare them for every eventuality, and to drive home the message of following orders. LTTE’s suicide bombers would be seen off by the leader of the organisation just before going on a mission; other groups would use mobile phones to

ISIS would have been no different had it not been for the fact that they now use widely available tools. They are lucky that they live in the times allowing for weaponization of products previously unavailable to their predecessors. These musings counter the narrative associating ISIS

Tribesmen loyal to Houthi rebels hold their weapons (AP Photo/Hani Mohammed)

Yes, these foreigners are often coming back home and some of them constitute a danger to their countries of origin. Is this, however, the new age of terrorism? Be careful when answering the question, and reach out to the “grey zone.” What’s “new” about this age is of broader social significance, and it is an age to which terrorists have adapted remarkably well. ISIS would have been a totally different beast had it developed in another era. Remember that between 2006 and 2011 hardly anyone noticed its existence as it hid in the sands of the Iraqi desert. At that time, there was nothing revolutionary about it, and no one spoke of the new age of terrorism. Let’s not get carried away now. The threat is bigger than a decade ago, the name of the organisation behind it is different but let’s remember that many of the ISIS characteristics are not unlike those of the terrorist groups and organisations that preceded it. This gives us hope in countering the latest incarnation of Evil Inc. 13

EU INSIGHT Bratislava Summit Reflections O Marek Lenč: Associate Fellow, Future of Europe Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute

n 16 September 2016, Great Britain, the third largest country of the EU, was for the first time in 43 years absent from an informal meeting of the European Council. This was, of course, due to no accident, but rather to the decision of Britain’s voters in June. The summit was also different in that it did not take place in Brussels, but in Bratislava, the capital of Slovakia, which took over the Presidency in the Council of EU only three months ago. The small country thus definitely secured itself an important place in shaping the post-Brexit Europe debate. Assessing the summit with regards to prior expectations, there are questions to be asked: Did Bratislava summit manage to bring any concrete results concerning the most pressing issues, such as the east-west migration split, or was it merely an occasion for the European leaders to showcase a perhaps somewhat insincere sense of unity? Did all the leaders share the same satisfaction with the results or did some of them leave disgruntled? Is European Union after Bratislava summit finally walking out of the crisis or is it in fact hurdling towards further fragmentation into rival groups all of which hold sharply diverging opinions? Europe has been going through a period of crisis blatantly obvious from the sheer number of difficulties it is contending with. The project of the Union is facing gradually more and more scepticism in the

French President Francois Hollande, left, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, attend a press conference after the EU summit in Bratislava Friday, Sept. 16, 2016. The EU summit, without the participation of the United Kingdom, kicked off the discussion on the future of EU following Brexit. (AP Photo/Ronald Zak)

eyes of ordinary citizens, many of whom see it as dysfunctional and incapable of handling its problems. The reasons behind this are not hard to pinpoint. For a long time, the EU has been struggling with the consequences of financial and debt crises, challenges in security policy presented by increasingly assertive Russia and the critical situation in Ukraine, unpredictability of developments in the Middle East, failure to properly manage migration and refugee crisis at the turn of 2015/16, as well as with the failure to prevent the rise of nationalist and radical tendencies across the whole Europe.

tion that the European Union is going through a formidable identity crisis. The question is how deep does it really run, and whether there is a reassuring way out of it for the 27 leaders? In this context, the Bratislava summit was clearly a much-expected and needed signal to the citizens of Europe, indicating that their political leaders are aware of the seriousness of the current situation. The EU desperately needs to demonstrate that it is ready to speak with a united voice even on those issues, where no consensus has been reached so far. If the Union wants to be a respected and influential player

“There is no better treatment for the current illnesses of the EU, than the picture of 27 leaders gathered at one place in mutual search for unity and a new course for the Union” The decision of British in global politics, while at the citizens to leave the Union only same time a unique and trustreinforced the general convic- ed project for its own citizens,

it needs to be able to solve the problems of these very citizens in the first place. But the main message of the Bratislava summit remains a positive one. Indeed, there is no better treatment for

ening Bulgaria’s border with Turkey, launch of European Border Coast Guard, and improvement of cooperation with third countries. In terms of internal security the summit called for intensified information sharing

“The Bratislava summit started much-needed process of internal self-reflection of the Union.” the current illnesses of the EU, than the picture of 27 leaders gathered at one place in mutual search for unity and a new course for the Union, even in the lamentable absence of the UK. Moreover, it is fortunate that this meeting initiated by Slovak diplomacy, but mainly by Slovak PM Robet Fico, took place outside the Brussels institutions. Bratislava was chosen as a relatively neutral venue for the European leaders to discuss the future of the Union. On these grounds, the summit brought concrete results in the form of the Bratislava Declaration and Bratislava Roadmap, which could be well described as expressing shared intention of the 27 leaders for the upcoming months. The Bratislava Declaration does not deny the very real challenges Europe is facing, but instead addresses pressing issues concerning migration, external border protection, internal and external security, defence, economy and youth. In terms of migration the EU leaders agreed on the importance of reducing the immigration influx, and of enhancing mutual European capacities. The agreed-upon measures included continued implementation of the EU-Turkey deal, member states’ assistance in strength-

among member states’ security services, interconnection of relevant databases, as well as for setting up of the Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS). Concerning economic issues, a decision to boost European Fund for Strategic Investment was made. Further action included reviewing progress made in delivering on the various Single Market strategies, and on the ongoing fight against youth unemployment. It must not be passed over in silence, however, that the results did not make all of the leaders necessarily satisfied. The most critical of voices came from Italian PM Matteo Renzi, who did not share concluding

views of the summit and openly questioned the approach of the EU leaders to the questions of economy and migration. Renzi`s disappointment no doubt spurred out of Italy’s failure to once again change German views on the EU’s fiscal policies. Similar criticism concerning migration-related issues was voiced by Hungarian PM Victor Oran. Despite the fact that the European leaders did not manage to find common ground in all the issues that are dividing them on the European political scene at the moment, the Bratislava summit started a much-needed process of internal self-reflection in the Union. This process will surely continue not only at the future formal meetings of leaders in Brussels, but also at the less formal ones planned for early 2017 on Malta and in Rome. Undoubtedly, Bratislava kicked off an important dialogue, which proves that even relatively recent member states can stir up significant European initiatives.

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico arrives for an EU summit at Bratislava Castle in Bratislava, Friday, Sept. 16, 2016. An EU summit, without the participation of the United Kingdom, in Bratislava will kick off the discussion on the future of EU following Brexit. (AP Photo/Ronald Zak)

visegrad news Czech Republic Cyberattacks on the rise in Czech Republic

hungary After Brexit, Huxit is possible in next 5 years

(www.radio.cz, 29.09.2016)

(www.express.co.uk 01.10.2016, www.telegraph.co.uk 02.10.2016)

“Finance Minister Andrej Babis said he proposes holding a nonbinding public referendum in 2017 on whether to adopt the euro.”

“Biszku is the only high-ranking communist leader convicted since Hungary’s 1990 return to democracy.”

he European Union’s law enforcement agency, Europol, has warned of the relentless threat of cybercrime, identifying eight major trends in an annual report: from payment fraud to crime-as-a-service, which it says could be accessed by terrorist groups. The Czech Republic has, among other countries, seen a serious rise in cyberattacks in recent years – doubling last year since 2012. This dramatic increase prompted the government to shore up defences in order to improve security and limit potential damage. The Czech Military Intelligence has invested, or intends to invest, hundreds of millions of crowns to address the issue, while current Minister of the Interior Milan Chovanec, who recently sought additional funds in the fight against terrorism (which also has a cyber component), made clear there was no other option but to try and always remain one step ahead. Spokesman for the National Centre Against Organised Crime Jaroslav Ibehej confirmed that the police force is fully focused on improving capabilities and readiness to block online attacks. “We are increasing personnel across the entire force; we have been improving technology and equipment available; and we are now putting a lot of emphasis on expert training.”

he latest polling figures show Hungary has voted emphatically against accepting EU migrant quotas in a cry of defiance against Brussels that is likely to solidify the country’s status as the leader of a “counter-revolution” against the bloc’s central powers. The Government is asking the people to reject European Commission’s distribution project - which would see all 28 member states of the EU take a prescribed share of asylum seekers. The referendum was a brainchild of Hungary’s far-right prime minister Viktor Orban, who cast the “No” vote claiming to defend country’s sovereignty and independence. His 18bn Forints campaign focused heavily on the fact that the ISIL terrorists responsible for Paris and Brussels attacks posed as migrants in 2015 while returning from Syria using the so-called “Balkans route” which leads through eastern European countries including Hungary. Mr Orban has insisted that parliament will pass legislation to advance the referendum’s goal even if turnout falls short of the 50 per cent mark. Despite the power struggle, Hungarian Government maintains it will not consider leading the country out of the European Union. Orban’s rivals within the government however claim that they believe this is exactly where the leader is heading. It seems then that there is a distinct possibility for a Huxit referendum within the next five years, should the Hungarian Government continue purposefully pitting itself against the EU.

Slovakia Slovakia updates its White Paper on Defence

Poland Protest against bid to ban abortion in Poland slovakia

(spectator.sme.sk, 28.10.2016)

(www.thenews.pl, www.theguardian.com, 02.10.2016)

“An immovable state border means that the border will not have to be adjusted to match the natural course of the riverbed.”

“According to Duda, Poland should instead opt for Sikorsky’s Black Hawk or AgustaWestland’s AW149, as both manufacturers operate Poland-based subsidiaries.”

hanges in the global security environment bring about changes, one of which is a revision of Slovakia’s defence concept. On September 28, the cabinet gave its approval for an updated version of the White Paper on Defence of the Slovak Republic, setting out the development of Slovakia’s defence strategy, the transformation of its Armed Forces and their current status, as well as defining its future tasks. The new document stresses the need to make Slovakia self-reliant in the defence of its own territory. The updated White Paper is based on the 2013 White Paper, approved by the previous government of Robert Fico (2012-16), and will feature the vision for the development of the Armed Forces until 2030. In the document the Ministry of Defence states that weak points still remain in the capabilities of the Armed Forces, mostly due to longterm under-financing and inefficient resource management in the past. The consequences include lack or obsolete state of equipment and armaments, inadequate length and quality of training, and low interoperability with allied forces. On the same day, the cabinet also approved an increase in the number of soldiers serving in the Slovak army. By the end of 2017, the number should increase by 578, amounting to more than 17,000 in total. The army will additionally obtain 833 civilian employees, making a total of 4,800 by the end of next year.

pponents of the bid to ban abortion in Poland staged a protest in front of the parliament buildings in Warsaw. Police reports around 5,000 people taking part in the protest, many dressed in black. Women chanted: “My body, my affair!”, some carrying brandished placards resembling an obituary notice reading: “We are saddened to inform you of the death of women’s rights.” The protest came after a controversial citizens’ initiative to staunchly tighten catholic Poland’s already restrictive abortion laws cleared a key parliamentary hurdle last week. The bill was sent by MPs to the committee stage. The initiative launched by the Stop Abortion group is backed by some 450,000 signatures and calls for a total ban on abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, and would make women who terminate pregnancies liable to jail time. At the same time, members of parliament rejected a rival bid to liberalise abortion laws. The pro-choice initiative by the Save Women coalition had been backed by over 215,000 signatures. It called for women to be allowed to terminate pregnancy on demand up to the 12th week of pregnancy. Poland already has some of the most restrictive abortion laws in Europe, passed in 1993: terminations are legally permitted only in cases when the life of foetus is under threat, when there is a grave threat to the health of the mother, and in case that the pregnancy resulted from rape or incest.

history chapter

From Rome to Bratislava:

60th Anniversary of the Treaty of Rome

Tomáš Hrozenský: PhD. Student at the Faculty of Political Sciences and International Relation, Matej Bel University

An Italian juggler waves a European flag during a ceremony marking the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, in Madrid, Friday, March 23, 2007. Sunday marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome that created what was then called the European Economic Community. The Rome treaty laid the basic foundations, much expanded by later treaties, for a common currency and central bank. (AP Photos/Daniel Ochoa de Olza)

arly springtime of 2017 will mark 60th anniversary of signing of one of the founding documents of the European integration project, the treaty establishing the European Economic Community (EEC), known also as the Rome Treaty. Signed by high-level political elites of then all 6 countries participating in the European integration (France, Germany, Italy and the Benelux countries), this document provided for further incentives and platforms to deepen the economic 18

integration in post-war Europe. In parallel to the establishment of the EEC, 25 March 1957 also gave birth to the Euratom as a result of signing the treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community.

Lisbon and other milestone agreements later in 20th and 21st century, one should avoid overstating the importance of the Rome Treaty for the EU of today. Its message, however, should not be forgotten. The treaty laid out basic infrastructures and plan for establishment of common market and customs union, two of the trademark characteristics of later stages in European integration efforts. The foundations of the European Commission and (ministerial) Council were created through provisions of the agreement as well. The Case of the Commission is an interesting one. The overarching agenda item of the negotiations leading to Rome was the single market. Since the negotiators knew that such treaty and the regulatory mechanisms it would put in place could not possibly foresee all future distortions (e.g. some governments may try to offset the trade liberalization with subtle schemes), they created the independent European Commission and empowered it with goal to monitor

“Free market came into proper existence only as a result of Single European Act in 1987.” Given further develop- and enforce good and healthy ments and number of formal shape of the internal market. and practical changes that beBoth EEC and Euratom came reality with Maastricht, treaties came into force on 01

January 1958. Historical background and political process leading to the adoption of both treaties were by no means clear and simple. Following collapsed efforts to continue in integration on deeper political and defence-related level through the initiatives to establish the European Defence Community and European Political Com-

tackled primarily free circulation of goods. Free movement of capital, persons and services came into proper existence only as a result of Single European Act in 1987. Other important provisions of the Rome Treaty included establishment of the Common Agricultural Policy, prohibition of monopolies, creation of the European Social

A schoolgirls carry a piece of giant puzzle representing all the member countries of the European Union during a ceremony for the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, in Madrid, Friday, March 23, 2007. Sunday marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome that create what was then called the European Economic Community. The Rome treaty laid the basic foundations, much expanded by later treaties, for a common currency and central bank. (AP Photos/Daniel Ochoa de Olza)

munity, the six countries shifted towards topics of economic nature, which proved feasible as European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) had already been there and functioning at the time. Post-war rebuilding of Western Europe required international solutions between former wartime foes, which were vital not only in the sphere of economy, but also in political domain. As a result, they agreed to dismantle all tariff barriers over a 12-year transitional period. Free market as it was conceived in the Rome Treaty

Fund and provision of common policies, allowing EEC member states to cooperate in certain areas when they chose to do so. The ECSC gave the first signal of willingness towards a supranational authority dealing with specific economic agenda. The EEC Treaty maintained this trend, but at the same time the common market also proved a useful political instrument, bringing together countries in sharing information and consolidating efforts in reaching goals outlined in the text of the

agreement. The other of the two Rome treaties - Euratom - aimed to foster favourable conditions for a stronger nuclear industry in Europe. With the Merger Treaty coming into force in 1967, executive bodies of the ECSC, EEC and Euratom treaty were combined into a single institutional structure. 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaty provides a good opportunity for critical reflection on the evolution of the European integration since the period when the EEC and Euratom were established. Those 60 years witnessed quite some developments. In the present turbulent times, the challenging and perhaps even worrisome circumstances of both external (terrorist threats, migration influx) and internal (Brexit, rise of extremism) nature demonstrate that current priorities in Brussels became more political or security-related. This was not the case when both treaties of Rome were agreed to. Back in 1950s, it was industry, trade and economy in general that moved the integration ahead. And so, even as the current evolution in the EU takes shape of political unification, we should not forget the spectrum of economic benefits and stimuli, which are inherent to European integration. Their roots are substantially embedded within the discussions and negotiations that took place in the post-war era. The Rome Treaty declared good intentions, outlined key perspectives, and laid out the cornerstones for what is practically taken for granted in the EU these days. It has set the course for a new European continent, where even deeper economic and political integration would be allowed to take place. 19

ON the map

The possibility of Serbia’s accession to the European Union Branko Lazic: Foreign and Security Analyst, Government of the Republic of Serbia

ince the beginning of 2000’s Serbia has been on the path to the EU. However, certain political issues between this Balkan country and the EU have led to several deadlocks, and Serbia still needs to accomplish numerous tasks assigned by western allies if it wants to join the Union. Serbia’s path towards the EU membership is not an ordinary one, as it faces sensitive political issues related to its cooperation with the ICTY, Montenegro’s decision to declare independence from the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, and to self-proclaimed independence of Kosovo* . All of these are still very sensitive and demand a careful and wise approach from Belgrade, if Serbia is to keep its sovereignty and stay on the EU path. Even though there are many obstacles, Serbia has already fulfilled several important steps regarding its possible accession: On 29 April 2008 Serbia and the Union signed The Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA). Next year’s end brought freedom of movement for Serbian citizens within the Schengen area. At about the same time the EU decided to begin implementing its Interim Trade Agreement with Serbia. At the very end of 2009 (22 December), Serbia officially submitted its application for EU membership. On 19 January 2011, the SAA was ratified by the European Parliament. 20

A man waves an anti NATO and EU flag during an anti NATO rally in downtown Belgrade, Serbia, March 27, 2016. Thousands marched against NATO and the West in Serbia, carrying pro-Russian banners praising Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pro-Russian forces in Serbia have been gaining ground ahead of the April 24 general election that could decide which way Serbia is heading, toward Russia or EU. (AP Photo/Andrej Cukic)

Shortly afterwards, the European Commission gave positive opinion regarding Serbia’s answers to a previously delivered questionnaire, and the European Council granted Serbia the status of membership-candidate on 1 March 2012. Few months later, Serbia got new government mainly led by parties which were in power during 1990s. In the second half

of 2000s they became strong promoters of Serbia’s EU membership. In 2012 they continued the ongoing dialogue with the EU, which started during the mandate of their political opponent Prime Minister Zoran Đinđić (2001 – 2003). On 21 January 2014, Serbian government, led by the Prime Minister Ivica Dačić (2012 – 2014), officially started negoti-

“Two thirds of Serbia’s overall trade take place with the EU states, many of which are also major sources of foreign investments.”

ations to join the EU. At the end of 2014, led by current Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić, the country opened first two chapters within the membership negotiations. Up until now Serbia has opened four chapters: Chapter 32 on financial control,

75% of all investments in Serbian economy. EU countries are home to the largest part of Serbian diaspora, and these 1.2 million Serbs are an important social link between the EU and Serbia. Looking at the bilateral donations in Serbia, the EU and

Serbian Progressive Party supporters hold Serbian flag during a pre-election rally in Belgrade, Serbia, Thursday, April 21, 2016. Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic and his Progressive Party are expected to win the majority of votes, but they are facing a mounting challenge from far-right groups favoring close ties with Russia rather than ties with the EU. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)

Chapter 35 on normalization of Belgrade-Pristina ties, Chapter 23 on judiciary and fundamental rights, and Chapter 24 on justice, freedom and security. Keeping in mind that there are 35 chapters of the acquis altogether, there is still a lot of work to be done. With all these obstacles mainly related to unresolved issues concerning the post-Yugoslav area, Serbia is strongly determined to join the EU. Two thirds of Serbia’s overall trade take place with the EU states, many of which are also major sources of foreign investments (such as Austria, Germany, Italy, Greece and others). Overall investments from the EU states have reached 15 billion EUR in the last ten years, which equals

its member states hold the first place with donations worth 3 billion EUR. In the upcoming years Serbia will continue holding its policy towards EU accession. The goal of current government is to close all 35 negotiating chapters by 2020. However, that process depends on many political issues, primarily on dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, but also on certain bilateral issues between the leading EU states and Serbia’s (EU) neighbors.

will be among the most sensitive. Serbia needs to show great diplomatic skills in times of tension between West and Russia. Serbia will have to continue in its pro-European policy while building good relations with the Eastern world (Russia, China, India …) at the same time. This will naturally pose serious challenges if the tension between West and Russia persists in the upcoming years. Serbia will not be the sole case though, as some EU member states are currently trying to balance between their bilateral interests and interests of the EU in dialogue with Russia as well as the People’s Republic of China. Chapter 27 (Environment and Climate Change) is also bound to be very taxing for Serbia in the process of negotiations, especially if we consider that it demands large reforms and investments worth around 10 billion EUR. Finally, let’s try to answer the main question: “Is it possible for Serbia to join the EU?” Yes, it is - sometime between 2020 and 2023. Nevertheless, it will depend on Serbia’s efficiency in reforming its administration and strengthening its economy, as well as on global political environment and willingness of the EU member states to accept new members. As soon as Serbia successfully accomplishes the ongoing reforms in building a modern and efficient state based on EU criteria, the date of Serbia’s official accession to the EU will become less important. From the perspective of Serbia

“Serbia needs to show great diplomatic skills in times of tension between West and Russia.” In the ongoing negotia- that day might come in 2020 tions, Chapter 31 on Foreign but the final decision is on the Security and Defense policy EU states themselves. 21

op-eds Fallout of the Trump Campaign I Stanislav MatÄ&#x203A;jka: Project Coordinator, GLOBSEC

t appears that to stand in defence of the transatlantic tradition and argue for closer ties with the US is becoming increasingly more and more challenging these days. Watching the nastiness of the election debates and the results of polls still favouring Trump with relatively high numbers, people familiar with the US political system are descending into the state of panic. Donald Trump, a real estate mogul and a reality show star promises to change the American politics. He has in fact already changed a lot without even entering the White House yet. Using extremely vulgar rhetoric, never seen before in such a high-profile public discourse, he opened the gate into it for bigotry, racism, sexism and other terrible â&#x20AC;&#x153;ismsâ&#x20AC;?. By the same token, other worrying

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump delivers a speech, Thursday, Oct. 13, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

developments unfold as NATO, the cornerstone of the security architecture, is being seriously challenged by an official presidential candidate in the nation with the greatest military power at hand. Who would have imag-

ined that a couple of years ago? In the current tense times of widespread frustration with the traditional parties, growing sense of anti-Americanism fuelled by economic crisis, an ongoing quagmire in the Middle East, and with Russian counternarratives at their peak, being an advocate of transatlanticism in Central Europe is indeed a tough job. But this is precisely the reason why our work is ever more crucial at this point. It is high time for European politicians, academics and all those determined to stand firmly for the values of liberal democracy to deliver hard-hitting messages to the public around the world. While Trump campaign puts the whole international Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speaks as Republican presidential nomi- system built since the Second nee Donald Trump reacts during the second presidential debate at Washington University World War to question, the Britin St. Louis, Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016. (Saul Loeb/Pool via AP) ish referendum has proven to

Brussels and the whole Europe that the way onward does not have to mean ever more Union. Rise of populism in the world politics proves that people feel their voice is not heard in their capitals. Russian charge in information warfare fuelling doubts about the future of the current model is of course a huge contributor to this phenomenon. Millennials are often blamed for taking current security and stability in transatlantic community for granted; and to be fair, more often than not when speaking to students, that critique seems, at least to a certain level, justified. Yet the current development on both sides of the Atlantic proves that

Protesters organized by the National Organization for Women gather near the Trump International Hotel and Tower on Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016, in New York. Hillary Clinton is pressing Republicans to take a clear stand on Donald Trump as she tries to capitalize on GOP divisions since revelation of his predatory comments about women prompted party leaders to abandon him. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

The dismay many feel when looking into the future is not only about what will happen once Trump gets into the White House. The damage is already done: American society is divided more than ever due

“This is the high time for European politicians, to stand firmly for values of liberal democracy to deliver hard hitting messages to their publics around the world.” this is not really all that much about millennials. It’s not the young people voting en masse in favour of either Brexit or for Trump. Rather, this development could be attributed to a backlash against policies of traditional parties and their embrace of liberal ideology combined with the penetration of societies with disruptive technologies. The question that many keep asking is what could have been done to accommodate those who now feel disconnected and under-represented. “Making America great again”, as Trump’s slogan goes, does not pertain to the reality as it is. Its success rather stands on the shared perception of a large part of the American society that the ordinary citizens have lost all the control over the fate of their country.

to his extremely vulgar campaign. GOP has been practically hijacked by Trump and it will be excruciating to watch the people cope with either scenario. How can the party of Abraham Lincoln possibly keep representing their values of conservatism after they nominated and still insist on endorsing a candidate who contradicts everything they used to stand for? The fallout of this campaign will stay not only with the GOP, but with the American society as a whole. Divisions created by the extreme rhetoric will outlast the campaign and the society will have to grapple with them for years to come. Openly inciting violence as the Republican candidate has done on several occasions at public meetings is arguably the most dangerous step to take in times of racial

and social unrest on the rise. Whoever becomes the next leader of the free world, societies on both sides of the Atlantic will have to live with the fallout of the campaign. Due to gloomy perception of reality strengthened by the Trump campaign, the effect of self-fulfilling prophecy is bound to cause the already present social, racial and religious tensions to grow even more dangerous. Populist rhetoric about Islam will only further alienate the young Muslims already living in our societies. In order to avoid such a prospect of the future, leaders in Europe and in the US will need to embark on a counteroffensive of optimism. While Obama won the 2008 election with the vision of bright future embodied in his slogan Yes We Can, Trump’s Make America Great Again stands upon the assumption that nothing is working as it should. Using frustrations of voters is nothing new in the arena of political struggle. However, the levels of vulgarity, the disregard for facts, and outright feeding of those very frustrations is unprecedented here. Meanwhile, we in Europe - currently dealing with Brexit and waiting for German and French elections around the corner will have to take note and treat these challenges with caution. 23

op-eds Brexit’s future is in Switzerland Eléonore Garnier: Graduate from the University of Geneva, Associate at the New European Movement Switzerland.

imes of despair and blaming are about to end in order to leave room for more pragmatic considerations; Brexit has now become reality as UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she would trigger the Brexit process by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on EU by March 2017. While many in the EU are hoping for a “hard” Brexit so as to teach a lesson to eurosceptics, such scenario would in reality not benefit either party. Prime Minister May has understood this, and has been rejecting the dichotomy of “hard” and “soft” Brexit since her Birmingham speech, demonstrating the necessary pragmatism which will be much required by these unprecedented negotiations. The UK has now entered an era of great incertitude that threatens to last much longer than expected. The future of Brexit is in Switzerland: In Bern, where the federal Swiss institutions are; and in Geneva, where the WTO has its Headquarters.

Swiss Federal President Johann Schneider-Ammann, right, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, arrive for a meeting about the implementation of restrictions to immigration with the EU, at Villa Hatt in Zurich, Switzerland, on Monday, Sept. 19, 2016. (Manuel Lopez/Keystone via AP)

in a similar referendum on the introduction of new measures to limit immigration from the EU; the Swiss referendum then broke the principle of free movement of persons that had been extended to Switzerland in 2000 in exchange for its integration into the single market after 8 years of negotiations with the EU. A direct response from the EU was a partial exclusion of Switzerland from

set before February 2017) that would both satisfy the EU and the sovereign people’s decision. A few months before the deadline, the incertitude still lingers as of yet no solution has been found. Last September, the Swiss parliament agreed on a window-dressing measure that obliges employers to promote their vacancies to current citizens and residents of Switzerland before looking within foreign workforce pool; a measure to be approved by “The future of Brexit is in Switzerland: In Bern, where the upper chamber of Swiss the federal Swiss institutions are; and in Geneva, Parliament in December. Many where the WTO has its Headquarters.” in the country are claiming that such a trompe-l’oeil represents If we want to imagine the research program Horizon treason of the people’s will and how the process of Brexit will 2020, until a solution is found the EU has still yet to express develop by 2019 (which is the to maintain the free movement its opinion on this solution, deadline for negotiations) one of persons in the country. Swit- though its position remains may look at the currently ongo- zerland’s current conundrum clear: no single market withing EU-Swiss talks: in February is to implement people’s will out free movement of persons. 2014, the Swiss people voted through a new policy (to be Even if the Brexit referendum

were less specific than the Swiss vote, free movement of persons remains the “mother of all negotiations” in Brexit’s case as well. What if the UK was ready to drop its access to the single market? The answer is to be found in Geneva. If the UK leaves the Union without a free trade agreement, it would, in addition, lose all the agreements with third party countries contracted and procured under its EU membership and will therefore have to renegotiate its own agreements, minus the 500 million customers’

FILE - An Aug. 1, 2014 file photo shows the logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse and a Swiss flag in Zurich, Switzerland. The Securities and Exchange Commission said Sunday, Jan. 31, 2016, that two major global banks, Barclays and Credit Suisse, will pay a combined $154.3 million to settle state and federal investigations that they misled clients about the safety of trading on their “dark pool” financial exchanges. (AP Photo/Keystone, Steffen Schmidt, File)

“What if the UK was ready to drop its access to the single market? The answer is to be found in Geneva.” market offered by the EU region. Additionally, the UK leaving the EU Customs Union, will force it to renegotiate its tar-

A “Remain” supporter walks near Park Lane in London, as protesters marched to Parliament Square to show their support for the European Union in the wake of last weeks referendum decision for Britain to leave the EU, known as “Brexit”, Saturday July 2, 2016. Demonstrators wearing EU flags as capes and with homemade banners saying “Bremain” and “We Love EU” gathered on the streets around Park Lane for the March for Europe rally. (Jonathan Brady/PA via AP)

iff with the 163 other member countries of the WTO, where the rule is governed unanimity and consensus. Even though the pound has drastically sunk as a consequence of Brexit, which led to boosting British exports, UK still remains a net importer, where imports exceed exports by £18 billion a month (to take figures from August 2016 for example). Germany alone covers as much as USA, both in terms of imports and exports for the UK. If UK quits any free trade area with the EU, it will have to pay an increased 10% tariff on German cars. Restructuration of UK’s new trade partners scheme will most likely cost a lot of time and money (as well as a good deal of common sense), and so remains highly unlikely to happen. Nevertheless, even if the UK exits the Union with a freetrade agreement in its hands (the most appreciable scenario) the UK’s perceived “sovereignty deficit” so often targeted by populists will not go away, and may actually even worsen for two reasons:

Firstly, as long as free trade is maintained, so will be the free movement of persons (possibly through window-dressing dispositions just like in the case of Switzerland) - much to the nationalists’ displeasure. But secondly, and more worryingly, if a free-trade agreement is indeed maintained, it will indirectly mean that the UK will nevertheless have to keep on updating most of its own regulations and norms to the European ones in the future, in order to maintain healthy and efficient trading relationship with the EU, while losing its power to make decisions and shape policies within the EU Institutions. This indirect and unofficial phenomenon is called “automatic update of EU law” , something familiar to the Swiss since decades. This literally means having to bear with all the “disadvantages” of the EU – i.e. losing national sovereignty - while also missing out on the advantages of membership. In short: Go back to “Go, do not collect £350 million”.

op-eds European Army: Three Unanswered Questions Soeren Kern: Senior Fellow, Gatestone Institute, New York; Senior Fellow for European Politics Strategic Studies Group, Madrid

uropean leaders are, once again, discussing far-reaching proposals to build a pan-European military. The efforts are part of plans to relaunch the European Union at celebrations in Rome in March 2017 marking the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which established the European Community. Efforts to improve European defense capabilities will be warmly embraced by those who want to see Europe take more responsibility for its own security. However, three interrelated questions remain: How would a centralized European defense institution affect the North American Treaty Alliance? Would European defense inte-

undermine the NATO alliance, the primary defense structure in Europe since 1949. Proponents of European defense integration argue that it is needed to counter growing security threats and would save billions of euros in duplication between countries. Critics point out that from a historical perspective, European defense cooperation has not fared very well. Europe’s two biggest common defense projects, the A400M military cargo plane and the Eurofighter Typhoon, have been riddled with technical problems, cost overruns and disputes between the European partners. The longterm viability of both projects is in doubt.

“EU intelligence gathering would be improved through the use of European satellites; a common EU military academy would “promote a common esprit de corps.” gration strengthen or weaken European and transatlantic security? And how would European defense integration impact national sovereignty? European officials are rushing ahead with defense integration now that Britain — the leading military power in Europe — will be exiting the European Union. British leaders have repeatedly blocked efforts to create a European army because of concerns that it would 26

Still others say that the creation of a European army, a long-held goal of European federalists, would entail an unprecedented transfer of sovereignty from European nation states to unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, the de facto capital of the EU. A six-page position paper, jointly written by French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his German counterpart, Ursula von der Leyen,

calls for the establishment of a “common and permanent” European military headquarters, as well as the creation of EU military structures, including an EU Logistics Command and an EU Medical Command. The document calls on EU member states to integrate logistics and procurement, coordinate military R&D, and synchronize policies in matters of financing and military planning. EU intelligence gathering would be improved through the use of European satellites; a common EU military academy would “promote a common esprit de corps.” The EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, has called for the establishment of a permanent EU military headquarters in Brussels that would manage all current and future EU military operations. “This could become the nucleus around which a common European defense structure could be built,” she said. Mogherini insisted that “we are not talking about a European army but about European defense: something we can really do, concretely, starting now.” She also stressed that EU defense policy would remain under the control of European governments rather than the European Commission, the powerful executive arm of the EU.

However, The Times of London reported that Mogherini presented EU leaders attending a summit in Bratislava in September 2016 with a “road map” and a “timetable” for creating EU military structures, which are “the foundation of a European army.” According to the newspaper, her plans for military structures able “to act autonomously” from NATO have led to fears that “the EU is seeking to rival the transatlantic alliance.” On June 28, just days after the British referendum to leave the European Union, Mogherini presented European leaders attending an EU summit in Brussels with the “EU Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy.” The document explicitly calls for European defense integration, and implicitly calls for the creation of a European army. According to the document, the EU strategy “nurtures the ambition of strategic autonomy for the European Union.” It adds: “Gradual synchronization and mutual adaptation of national defense planning cycles and capability development can enhance strategic convergence between member states.” European federalists have been calling for the creation of a European army in one form or another since 1950. Although a European army is still a long way away from becoming reality, the ultimate goal of European federalists is full defense integration leading to a European military under supranational control. The first plan to create a unified European army was the Pleven Plan, named after French Prime Minister René Pleven. Dating back to October 1950, the plan proposed the

“immediate creation of a European army tied to the political institutions of a united Europe.” Tellingly, the Pleven Plan was rejected by the French Parliament because it would have infringed on France’s national sovereignty. Since the Lisbon Treaty, which forms the constitutional basis of the European Union, entered into force in December 2009, the political momentum toward European defense integration has picked up steam. The drive toward European defense integration has accelerated during the Obama ad-

ministration, which has often appeared indifferent to Europe and transatlantic relations. Another important obstacle to European defense integration was removed when Britons voted in June 2016 to exit the European Union. Still, three questions remain unanswered: Would a European Army undermine NATO, the primary guarantor of European security? Would a European Army add or detract from transatlantic security? And would a European Army undermine national sovereignty? Only time will tell.

EU Defence Ministers stand for a family photograph in Dublin Castle, Ireland, Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2013. The working sessions of the meeting is to cover all topics related to the Common Security and Defence Policy and point the way forward for the direction of topics within CSDP. Among those Attending this meeting are the UN Under Secretary General of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations and also NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, names front row from left, Walter Stevens, CMPD, Claude France Arnould, EDA, General Patrick de Rousiers, EUMC, Louis Telemachou, Cyprus Ambassador to the Eu’s Political and Security Committee, Sec General Herve Ladsous UN, Mr Alan Shatter, Minister for Defence, Maciej Popowski, EEAS, Andres Fogh Ramussen,Sec General of NATO, Juozas Olekas, Lithuania Minister for Defence, Lt. General Ton Van Osch, EUMS and Daniel Calleja, Crespo, European Commission, middle row from left, Janis Sarts, Latvia State Secretary, Patrick Engelberg, Luxembourg Defence Director, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Netherlands Minister of Defence, Robert Kupiecki, Poland’s Undersecretary of State for Defence Policy, Graca Mira Gomes, Portugal’s Ambassador to PSC, Sebastian Haluban, Romania’s State Secretary for Defence, Milos Koterec, Slovakia’s President of the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations, Ales Hojs, Slovenia’s Minister for Defence, Alejandro Alvagonzalez San Martin, Spain’s Secretary General for Defence Policy, Karin Enstrom, Sweden’s Minister for Defence and Dr Andrew, Murrison, United Kingdom Minister for International Security Strategy. Back row from left, Norbert Darabos, Austria’s Minister for Defence, Pieter de Crem, Belgium’s Minister of Defence, Avgustina Tzvetkova, Bulgaria’s Deputy Minister of Defence, Visnja Tafra, Croatia’s Deputy Defence Minister, Dr. Godwin Grima, Malta’s Principal Permanent Secretary, Vlastimil Picek, Czech Republic’s First Deputy Minister of Defence, Nick Haekerup, Denmark’s Minister of Defence, Urmas Reinsalu, Estonia’s Minister of Defence, M SITA 13.02.2013 16:24:15

CALENDAR november 6

International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict On 5 November 2001, the UN General Assembly declared 6 November of each year as the International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict. The United Nations attaches great importance to ensuring that action on the environment is part of conflict prevention, peacekeeping and peacebuilding strategies

The United State presidential election of 2016 The United States presidential election of 2016, scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. The 2016 election will determine the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States.

10-11

Changing migration policies The Research and Information Center on Immigrant Integration (CDCDI) of the Romanian Association for Health Promotion (ARPS), launches the call for its 3rd international conference on migration, to be held in Bucharest, on 10 – 11 November 2016. The topics of this edition are included under the broader theme“Changing migration policies: national perspectives and supra-national strategies”.

Anniversary of Estonian Sovereignty Declaration Declaration on the Sovereignty of the Estonian SSR was issued on November 16, 1988 the Singing Revolution in Estonia. The declaration asserted Estonia’s sovereignty and the supremacy of the Estonian laws over the laws of the Soviet Union. November 16 is now celebrated annually as the “Day of Declaration of Sovereignty”.

DECEMBER 15-19

18th World Congress of Criminology The World Congress of Criminology is the foremost criminology event in India that brings together the best academics, researchers, professionals and policy makers to discuss the most relevant and current issues related to crime and deviance and their prevention under the aegis of the International Society of Criminology (ISC).

The Slovak presidency of the Council of the EU 31th is the las day of The Slovak presidency of the Council of the EU. During 6 months, the presidency focused on four key areas: economically strong Europe, modern single market, sustainable migration and asylum policies and globally engaged. The following country for presidency after Slovakia is Malta.

quiz a) Germán Vargas Lleras b) Juan Manuel Santos c) Enrique Peña Nieto d) Álvaro Uribe 2. Thousands of women in Poland have gone on strike to protest against proposals for a total ban on abortions. The protest was called _______. Demonstrations were held in solidarity in other European cities, including Berlin, Brussels, Dusseldorf, Belfast, London and Paris. a) Black Monday b) Black Tuesday c) Black Wednesday d) Black Thursday 3. Hurricane _______ obtained several records during its deadly march through the Caribbean and up the southeast US coast this year. In just one day, the intensity went from a Category 1 hurricane (whipping winds of 74 to 95 mph) to a Category 5 (winds of at least 157 mph). a) Felix b) Katrina c) Wilma d) Matthew 4. _______ politicians have voted to ban petrol and diesel cars by 2030 in an effort to meet emissions targets outlined in the Paris agreement. In practice it would mean permission only for zero-emission vehicles on EU roads.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, right, meets with Secretary-General-designate, Antonio Guterres, left, Thursday, Oct. 13, 2016 at U.N. headquarters. The U.N. General Assembly elected Guterres on Thursday as the next secretary-general of the United Nations, a post he pledged to use to be “a bridge-builder” and to promote a new “diplomacy for peace.” (AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews)

a) Norwegian b) Finnish c) German d) Austrian

a) Greece b) Portugal c) Brasil d) Spain

5. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has declared victory in a referendum on mandatory EU migrant quotas despite the referendum was invalid. Results showed that the turnout was only _______ and at present the constitution requires the participation of at least half of the citizens entitled to vote for a referendum to be deemed valid.

8. Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej died after _______ serving as head of state. He was the world’s longest-reigning monarch who has been seen as a stabilising figure in a country hit by cycles of political turmoil and multiple coups.

a) 25% b) 30% c) 35% d) 40% 6. Australia’s opposition _______ voted to block legislation to allow a public referendum on same-sex marriage, that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had proposed for early next year. The prime minister had said that the government would provide financing for both the “yes” and “no” campaigns, and that he would abide by the decision of the voters. a) Family First Party b) Labor Party c) National Party od Australia d) Katter’s Australian Party 7. On 13th of October, the General Assembly appointed by acclamation the former Prime Minister of _______, António Guterres, as the next United Nations Secretary-General, to succeed Ban Ki-moon when he steps down on 31 December. Before that he held the post of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees from June 2005 to December 2015.

Polish women shout slogans while raising a hanger, the symbol of illegal abortion, during a nationwide strike and demonstration to protest a legislative proposal for a total ban on abortion in Warsaw, Poland, Monday, Oct. 3, 2016. Polish women are waging a nationwide strike to protest a legislative proposal for a total ban on abortion, with workers and students boycotting their jobs and classes and housewives refusing to do housework. Some businesses and restaurants are also closed on what is being called “Black Monday,” an expression of outrage against a proposal to further restrict an abortion law that is already one of the most limited in Europe. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

a) 50 years b) 60 years c) 70 years d) 80 years 9. General elections were held in _______ on 7 October 2016. The ruling Justice and Development Party remained the largest party, winning 125 of the 395 seats in the House of Representatives. The government has only limited powers, but this ballot for the House of Representatives was a test for the constitutional monarchy five years after Mohammed VI devolved some authority to ease protests for democratic change. a) Tunisia b) Yemen c) Morocco d) Egypt 10. French President Francois Hollande has promised to dismantle Calais migrant camp also known as “ _______” by the end of the year 2016. Plan includes movement of 9,000 migrants to reception centers across France. a) Jungle b) Forrest c) Mile d) Battle

Hungarian Primie Minister Viktor Orban, centre, applauds, during the Fidesz party’s event after the referendum in the Balna Budapest Cultural Center in Budapest, Hungary, Sunday, October 2, 2016. Hungarians overwhelmingly supported the government in a referendum on Sunday called to oppose any future, mandatory European Union quotas for accepting relocated asylum seekers. But nearly complete official results showed the ballot was invalid due to low voter turnout.(Szilard Koszticsak/MTI via AP)

Correct answers: 1B, 2A, 3D, 4C, 5D, 6B, 7B, 8C, 9C, 10A

1. Efforts by Colombian President _______ to end more than five decades of war in his country were recognised with the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2016. In his address to the nation he emphasized that the prize was received in the name of all Colombians.

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Soňa Trojanová Ivana Slobodníková Tomáš Grenzner daniel vojtek SITA, TASR

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