Sub-Saharan markets in crisis …
The old ways…
4 Outcomes of Predictive Marketing
5 Traditional Assumptions of Predictive Marketing
Historical Data Reflects Future Behaviour (Certainty)
Consumers Are Rational Segmentation Is Effective
A traditional assumption of predictive marketing is that:
Consumer markets are not volatile and consumers are rational as a result.
Segmentation works better when consumers are rational….
Uncertainty is
the new normal…
Unpredictable Consumer Behaviour
Changing Market Dynamics
Data Gaps and Inconsistencies
Changing
Market Dynamics Bias in Models
Real-Time Data Integration
By continuously feeding fresh data into predictive models.
Agile Marketing Strategies
By shifting from relying solely on long-term trends to focusing on short-term signals and insights.
How Predictive Marketing Can Adapt
Scenario Planning
By running simulations for various possible scenarios.
Behavioural Economics
By incorporating insights from behavioural economics into predictive marketing models.
Towards A Conceptual Framework That Works…
CONSUMERS' PERCEPTION OF MARKET
UNCERTAINTY (SCENARIOS)
CONSUMERS' DECISION-MAKING SHORTCUTS (BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS)
CHURN FROM BRAND OR REDUCED CUSTOMER VALUE
AGE GROUP SEX SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLASS URBAN/RURAL COUNTRY
Understanding consumers’ perception of market uncertainty
Consumers Perception Of “Market Uncertainty”
Perceived Economic Instability Personal Financial Insecurity
Perceive unstable economy
Deteriorating economic condition
Adverse news about the economy
Concerns about personal finances
Unreliable information about current situation
Uncertain future
Job/ income insecurity
Conflicting information
Inability to plan for the future
Inability to meet personal financial obligations
Political/ economic information not credible
Uncertainty about future financial stability.
Understanding consumers’ decision-making shortcuts (behavioural economics)
Keep old than pursue new
Prefer immediate rewards over larger future benefits
Inclined to take up immediate discounts
Purchase decision influenced by short-term benefits
Purchase decision influenced by how information is presented
Likely to buy product if advertised as protecting losses
15 Consumers’ Purchase Decision-Making Shortcuts (2)
Anchoring
First price observed sets reference for purchase decision
Discounts seem more attractive if original price is known
Rely on initial information to make subsequent purchase decision
Responds to limited-time offers Perception of value increases if product is in short supply
Propensity to buy product if it will run out soon
Stick with usual buying habits Not trying new products or services
Hesitant to change regular brands
Follow what others buy
Purchase decisions influenced by others
Feels confident about purchase if others are buying same
Making it all work…
1 Use predictive marketing to simplify market information for consumers…
2 Demonstrate the consumers’ savings from ethical application of predictive marketing
3 Ultimately, use it to help consumers make better purchase decisions…
Asante! Session
