Market Intelligence Report
Farmland Market Great Britain - 2014Q1 Less land and fewer farms have been marketed than in early 2013 but the first quarter is always ‘quiet’. We expect this to turn around as we have more farms ready to market in the second quarter than we did last year. Values are at record highs through the UK and our farmland model estimates that they will remain so. Investors continue to move into the ‘safe haven’ of farmland and farmers remain the dominant, if slightly more careful, buyers, which makes lotting and marketing land attractively even more important than usual. Giles Wordsworth National Head of Farm Agency and Dr Jason Beedell Head of Research
England
Scotland
Wales
Prices hold firm in early 2014 - at their record levels - as the amount of land for sale drops even further.
Little early evidence of price change in first quarter but prices expected to rise on the back of continuing low levels of supply.
Prices remain at record levels for both bare (£8,100 per acre) and equipped farms (£11,250).
However, over the whole of 2014, we expect more land to be marketed compared with 2013 as we have more ready to market and other agents do too.
Demand remains strong for the best land and high amenity units.
smithsgore.co.uk
Only 11 farms were publicly marketed covering 1,900 acres so scarcity remains the keyword.
England Farmland values in England (£/acre)
Values across England remain at record levels and we expect them to remain at this level or break the £10,000 per acre barrier during 2014. Prospects are better for equipped farms than bare land.
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000
The 10,800 acres marketed in Q1 is the lowest amount in the past five years, which themselves have been a historically low period.
2,000 0 08Q1
09Q1
10Q1 Bare land
Dairy
Livestock
Mixed
27
5
34
22
13Q1
29
1
63
16
14Q1
12
2
39
12
£6,200
Bare pasture
£6,100
£6,200
13Q4
14Q1
=
Bare arable
£7,250
£7,500
Bare pasture
£6,000
£6,500
Equipped land
£8,250
£8,500
13Q4
14Q1
East Midlands
£7,100
Bare arable
£8,000
£8,000
=
Bare pasture
£6,250
£6,250
=
Equipped land
£11,000
£11,000 =
13Q4
14Q1
Bare arable
£8,000
£8,200
Bare pasture
£6,000
£6,300
Equipped land
£10,000
£10,500
Smiths Gore offices
Bare land £/ac 09 10
13Q4
14Q1
£6,100
£6,200
Bare pasture
£4,400
£4,500
£7,700
£8,000
13Q4
14Q1
Bare arable
£8,000
£8,000 =
Bare pasture
£5,000
£5,000
=
Equipped land
£9,000
£9,000
=
% change
Acres
£4,800
-2%
19,500
£5,400
13%
23,100
13Q4
14Q1
Bare arable
£7,500
£7,750
Bare pasture
£5,100
£5,500
Equipped land
£9,500
£9,500
13Q4 East of England
West Midlands South Central South West
£7,100
=
Yorkshire & Humber
£6,200
£/ac
% change
135
£7,200
178
£8,300
=
14Q1
Bare arable
£8,250
£8,500
Bare pasture
£5,100
£6,000
Equipped land
£9,500
£9,500
13Q4
14Q1
=
Bare arable
£7,500
£7,500 =
Bare pasture
£6,250
£6,250 =
Equipped land
£9,000
£9,500
Equipped land No of sales
14Q1
Bare arable
14Q1
Bare arable
Equipped land
13Q1
Equipped land
South East
North West
13Q4
12Q1 All land
North East
Arable 12Q1
11Q1 Equipped land
All land
Acres
No of sales
£/ac
% change
-11%
96,700
15%
98,700
Acres
No of sales
360
£6,700
433
£7,600
-11%
116,400
496
13%
121,800
611
11
£6,000
11%
24,400
148
£9,400
13%
104,500
462
£8,700
14%
128,900
610
12
£6,900
15%
17,500
128
£9,700
3%
73,100
338
£9,000
3%
90,600
466
13
£7,100
3%
26,500
232
£10,800
11%
95,400
468
£9,800
9%
121,900
700
12Q1
£6,000 =
0%
3,800
29
£9,400 =
0%
12,400
59
£8,800
1%
16,200
88
12Q2
£6,300
5%
6,700
38
£9,600
2%
28,800
119
£8,900
1%
35,600
157
12Q3
£6,600
5%
4,100
36
£9,600 =
0%
23,400
116
£9,000
1%
27,400
152
12Q4
£6,900
5%
2,900
25
£9,700
1%
8,500
44
£9,000 =
0%
11,400
69
13Q1
£7,000
1%
5,400
43
£9,800
1%
12,100
66
£9,100
1%
17,500
109
13Q2
£7,100
1%
7,900
78
£10,200
4%
48,100
212
£9,500
4%
56,000
290
13Q3
£7,200
1%
9,000
74
£10,300
1%
26,500
130
£9,500 =
0%
35,5 00
204
13Q4
£7,100
-1%
4,200
37
£10,800
5%
8,900
61
£9,800
3%
13,100
98
14Q1
£7,100
=
0%
2,900
27
£10,800 =
0%
7,800
38
£9,800 =
0%
10,800
65
Scotland Farmland values in Scotland (£/acre) No change in prices but good demand and low supply will maintain upwards pressure on values during the year.
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000
2,500 acres is almost double the amount for sale compared with 13Q1 but there are few decent sized units.
2,000 0 09Q1
10Q1
11Q1 Bare land
Arable
Dairy
Livestock
Mixed
12Q1
2
3
5
7
13Q1
2
0
3
4
14Q1
5
0
11
1
£/ac
% change
Acres
No of sales
12Q1
£6,100
5%
3,700
17
13Q1
£6,200
2%
1,400
9
14Q1 £6,300
2%
2,500
17
12Q1
Equipped land
13Q1
14Q1
All land
Smiths Gore offices
Bare land £/ac
Equipped land
% change
Acres
–
3,800
24
£6,000
0%
3,400
28
£6,000 =
22%
3,100
20
£5,000
-17%
6%
3,900
28
£6,250
25%
£5,950
2%
3,100
21
£6,350
2%
£5,500 =
0%
400
4
£6,250 =
0%
12Q2
£5,500 =
0%
1,600
10
£6,250 =
0%
15,600
44
£6,100 =
12Q3
£5,750
5%
1,100
7
£6,250 =
0%
15,100
40
£6,200
12Q4
£5,850
2%
800
7
£6,250 =
0%
1,600
8
£6,200 =
13Q1
£5,850 =
0%
500
4
£6,250 =
0%
900
5
£6,200 =
13Q2
£5,950
2%
1,100
6
£6,350
2%
12,500
42
£6,300
09
£4,500
10
£4,500 =
11
£5,500
12
£5,850
13 12Q1
No of sales
£/ac
All land
% change
Acres
No of sales
£/ac
% change
Acres
No of sales
–
23,300
85
£5,800
0%
31,000
100
£5,900
–
27,100
109
2%
34,400
128
27,700
94
£5,100
-14%
30,800
114
35,700
105
£6,200
22%
39,500
133
38,400
117
£6,300
2%
41,500
138
3,300
13
£6,100 =
0%
3,700
17
0%
17,200
54
2%
16,300
47
0%
2,300
15
0%
1,400
9
2%
13,600
48
13Q3
£5,950 =
0%
1,300
9
£6,350 =
0%
21,300
51
£6,300 =
0%
22,600
60
13Q4
£5,950 =
0%
200
2
£6,350 =
0%
3,700
19
£6,300 =
0%
3,900
21
14Q1
£5,950 =
0%
900
6
£6,350 =
0%
1,600
11
£6,300 =
0%
2,500
17
Wales Arable
Dairy
Livestock
Mixed
12Q1
2
0
2
0
13Q1
0
0
12
0
14Q1
0
0
9
2
Farmland values in Wales (£/acre) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
£/ac
% change
Acres
No of sales
4,000
12Q1
£9,000
-3%
1,200
4
2,000
13Q1
£10,100
12%
1,700
12
0
14Q1
£10,800
7%
1,900
11
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1 Bare land
Bare land
13Q1
12Q1
Equipped land
14Q1
All land
Equipped land
All land
£/ac
% change
Acres
No of sales
£/ac
% change
Acres
No of sales
£/ac
% change
Acres
No of sales
09
£4,500
6%
1,700
14
£9,500
31%
9,800
54
£8,800
28%
11,500
68
10
£5,000
11%
1,200
9
£10,000
5%
32,100
50
£9,300
6%
33,300
59
11
£6,000
20%
1,300
8
£9,500
-5%
7,300
48
£9,000
-3%
8,600
56
12
£6,500
8%
400
4
£9,250
-3%
7,200
29
£8,800
-2%
7,600
33
13
£8,000
23%
1,500
14
£11,250
22%
11,600
60
£10,800
23%
13,100
74
12Q1
£6,000
9%
0
0
£9,500
10%
1,200
4
£9,000
11%
1,200
4
12Q2
£6,250
4%
200
2
£10,000
5%
3,400
7
£9,400
4%
3,600
9
12Q3
£6,250 =
0%
200
2
£10,000 =
0%
2,200
14
£9,400 =
0%
2,400
16
12Q4
£6,500
4%
0
0
£10,000 =
0%
400
4
£9,500
1%
400
4
13Q1
£7,500
15%
100
1
£10,500
5%
1,600
11
£10,100
6%
1,700
12
13Q2
£7,750
3%
400
4
£11,000
5%
3,700
23
£10,500
4%
4,100
27
13Q3
£8,000
3%
200
3
£11,250
2%
4,700
18
£10,800
3%
4,900
21
13Q4
£8,000 =
0%
600
5
£11,250 =
0%
1,800
9
£10,800 =
0%
2,400
14
14Q1
£8,100
1%
600
5
£11,250 =
0%
1,300
6
£10,800 =
0%
1,900
11
Figures in this review are from our comprehensive database of all sales of publicly marketed farmland over 50 acres; they are therefore transaction-based, other than the Scottish, Welsh and regional values which are from our regional farm agents as reliable figures cannot be generated from the small numbers of transactions in these areas. The figures exclude sales where the residential value of the sale is greater than 50% of the total. If you have any questions about this report, please contact: Dr Jason Beedell Head of Research t 01733 866562 e jason.beedell@smithsgore.co.uk
Contacts National Head of Farm Agency
Giles Wordsworth
London
0207 409 9490
England
Giles Wordsworth Sam Tydeman
London Newmarket
0207 409 9490 01638 676743
North East North West Yorkshire and Humber West Midlands East Midlands East of England South East South Central South West
Stephen McOwan Simon Waller William Douglas Ed de Lisle Luke Humphries Sam Tydeman William Banham Giles Wordsworth Harry St John Simon Derby Toby Perry Christopher Anderson
Corbridge Clitheroe York Lichfield Peterborough Newmarket Maidstone Oxford Oxford Taunton Exeter Truro
01434 632404 01200 411052 01904 756303 01543 266407 01733 559322 01638 676743 01732 879058 01865 733302 01865 733304 01823 445036 01392 294891 01872 274646
Head of Farms and Estates Agency Team
John Coleman
Edinburgh
0131 344 0881
Head of Property Investment and Valuations
Gerald FitzGerald
London
0207 409 9492
Scotland