Farmland Market Review 1Q2014

Page 1

Market Intelligence Report

Farmland Market Great Britain - 2014Q1 Less land and fewer farms have been marketed than in early 2013 but the first quarter is always ‘quiet’. We expect this to turn around as we have more farms ready to market in the second quarter than we did last year. Values are at record highs through the UK and our farmland model estimates that they will remain so. Investors continue to move into the ‘safe haven’ of farmland and farmers remain the dominant, if slightly more careful, buyers, which makes lotting and marketing land attractively even more important than usual. Giles Wordsworth National Head of Farm Agency and Dr Jason Beedell Head of Research

England

Scotland

Wales

Prices hold firm in early 2014 - at their record levels - as the amount of land for sale drops even further.

Little early evidence of price change in first quarter but prices expected to rise on the back of continuing low levels of supply.

Prices remain at record levels for both bare (£8,100 per acre) and equipped farms (£11,250).

However, over the whole of 2014, we expect more land to be marketed compared with 2013 as we have more ready to market and other agents do too.

Demand remains strong for the best land and high amenity units.

smithsgore.co.uk

Only 11 farms were publicly marketed covering 1,900 acres so scarcity remains the keyword.


England Farmland values in England (£/acre)

Values across England remain at record levels and we expect them to remain at this level or break the £10,000 per acre barrier during 2014. Prospects are better for equipped farms than bare land.

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000

The 10,800 acres marketed in Q1 is the lowest amount in the past five years, which themselves have been a historically low period.

2,000 0 08Q1

09Q1

10Q1 Bare land

Dairy

Livestock

Mixed

27

5

34

22

13Q1

29

1

63

16

14Q1

12

2

39

12

£6,200

Bare pasture

£6,100

£6,200 

13Q4

14Q1

=

Bare arable

£7,250

£7,500 

Bare pasture

£6,000

£6,500 

Equipped land

£8,250

£8,500 

13Q4

14Q1

East Midlands

£7,100

Bare arable

£8,000

£8,000

=

Bare pasture

£6,250

£6,250

=

Equipped land

£11,000

£11,000 =

13Q4

14Q1

Bare arable

£8,000

£8,200 

Bare pasture

£6,000

£6,300 

Equipped land

£10,000

£10,500 

Smiths Gore offices

Bare land £/ac 09 10

13Q4

14Q1

£6,100

£6,200 

Bare pasture

£4,400

£4,500 

£7,700

£8,000 

13Q4

14Q1

Bare arable

£8,000

£8,000 =

Bare pasture

£5,000

£5,000

=

Equipped land

£9,000

£9,000

=

% change

Acres

£4,800 

-2%

19,500

£5,400 

13%

23,100

13Q4

14Q1

Bare arable

£7,500

£7,750 

Bare pasture

£5,100

£5,500 

Equipped land

£9,500

£9,500

13Q4 East of England

West Midlands South Central South West

£7,100

=

Yorkshire & Humber

£6,200

£/ac

% change

135

£7,200 

178

£8,300 

=

14Q1

Bare arable

£8,250

£8,500 

Bare pasture

£5,100

£6,000 

Equipped land

£9,500

£9,500

13Q4

14Q1

=

Bare arable

£7,500

£7,500 =

Bare pasture

£6,250

£6,250 =

Equipped land

£9,000

£9,500 

Equipped land No of sales

14Q1

Bare arable

14Q1

Bare arable

Equipped land

13Q1

Equipped land

South East

North West

13Q4

12Q1 All land

North East

Arable 12Q1

11Q1 Equipped land

All land

Acres

No of sales

£/ac

% change

-11%

96,700

15%

98,700

Acres

No of sales

360

£6,700 

433

£7,600 

-11%

116,400

496

13%

121,800

611

11

£6,000 

11%

24,400

148

£9,400 

13%

104,500

462

£8,700 

14%

128,900

610

12

£6,900 

15%

17,500

128

£9,700 

3%

73,100

338

£9,000 

3%

90,600

466

13

£7,100 

3%

26,500

232

£10,800 

11%

95,400

468

£9,800 

9%

121,900

700

12Q1

£6,000 =

0%

3,800

29

£9,400 =

0%

12,400

59

£8,800 

1%

16,200

88

12Q2

£6,300 

5%

6,700

38

£9,600 

2%

28,800

119

£8,900 

1%

35,600

157

12Q3

£6,600 

5%

4,100

36

£9,600 =

0%

23,400

116

£9,000 

1%

27,400

152

12Q4

£6,900 

5%

2,900

25

£9,700 

1%

8,500

44

£9,000 =

0%

11,400

69

13Q1

£7,000 

1%

5,400

43

£9,800 

1%

12,100

66

£9,100 

1%

17,500

109

13Q2

£7,100 

1%

7,900

78

£10,200 

4%

48,100

212

£9,500 

4%

56,000

290

13Q3

£7,200 

1%

9,000

74

£10,300 

1%

26,500

130

£9,500 =

0%

35,5 00

204

13Q4

£7,100 

-1%

4,200

37

£10,800 

5%

8,900

61

£9,800 

3%

13,100

98

14Q1

£7,100

=

0%

2,900

27

£10,800 =

0%

7,800

38

£9,800 =

0%

10,800

65


Scotland Farmland values in Scotland (£/acre) No change in prices but good demand and low supply will maintain upwards pressure on values during the year.

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000

2,500 acres is almost double the amount for sale compared with 13Q1 but there are few decent sized units.

2,000 0 09Q1

10Q1

11Q1 Bare land

Arable

Dairy

Livestock

Mixed

12Q1

2

3

5

7

13Q1

2

0

3

4

14Q1

5

0

11

1

£/ac

% change

Acres

No of sales

12Q1

£6,100 

5%

3,700

17

13Q1

£6,200 

2%

1,400

9

14Q1 £6,300 

2%

2,500

17

12Q1

Equipped land

13Q1

14Q1

All land

Smiths Gore offices

Bare land £/ac

Equipped land

% change

Acres

3,800

24

£6,000

0%

3,400

28

£6,000 =

22%

3,100

20

£5,000 

-17%

6%

3,900

28

£6,250 

25%

£5,950 

2%

3,100

21

£6,350 

2%

£5,500 =

0%

400

4

£6,250 =

0%

12Q2

£5,500 =

0%

1,600

10

£6,250 =

0%

15,600

44

£6,100 =

12Q3

£5,750 

5%

1,100

7

£6,250 =

0%

15,100

40

£6,200 

12Q4

£5,850 

2%

800

7

£6,250 =

0%

1,600

8

£6,200 =

13Q1

£5,850 =

0%

500

4

£6,250 =

0%

900

5

£6,200 =

13Q2

£5,950 

2%

1,100

6

£6,350 

2%

12,500

42

£6,300 

09

£4,500

10

£4,500 =

11

£5,500 

12

£5,850 

13 12Q1

No of sales

£/ac

All land

% change

Acres

No of sales

£/ac

% change

Acres

No of sales

23,300

85

£5,800

0%

31,000

100

£5,900 

27,100

109

2%

34,400

128

27,700

94

£5,100 

-14%

30,800

114

35,700

105

£6,200 

22%

39,500

133

38,400

117

£6,300 

2%

41,500

138

3,300

13

£6,100 =

0%

3,700

17

0%

17,200

54

2%

16,300

47

0%

2,300

15

0%

1,400

9

2%

13,600

48

13Q3

£5,950 =

0%

1,300

9

£6,350 =

0%

21,300

51

£6,300 =

0%

22,600

60

13Q4

£5,950 =

0%

200

2

£6,350 =

0%

3,700

19

£6,300 =

0%

3,900

21

14Q1

£5,950 =

0%

900

6

£6,350 =

0%

1,600

11

£6,300 =

0%

2,500

17


Wales Arable

Dairy

Livestock

Mixed

12Q1

2

0

2

0

13Q1

0

0

12

0

14Q1

0

0

9

2

Farmland values in Wales (£/acre) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000

£/ac

% change

Acres

No of sales

4,000

12Q1

£9,000 

-3%

1,200

4

2,000

13Q1

£10,100 

12%

1,700

12

0

14Q1

£10,800 

7%

1,900

11

09Q1

10Q1

11Q1 Bare land

Bare land

13Q1

12Q1

Equipped land

14Q1

All land

Equipped land

All land

£/ac

% change

Acres

No of sales

£/ac

% change

Acres

No of sales

£/ac

% change

Acres

No of sales

09

£4,500 

6%

1,700

14

£9,500 

31%

9,800

54

£8,800 

28%

11,500

68

10

£5,000 

11%

1,200

9

£10,000 

5%

32,100

50

£9,300 

6%

33,300

59

11

£6,000 

20%

1,300

8

£9,500 

-5%

7,300

48

£9,000 

-3%

8,600

56

12

£6,500 

8%

400

4

£9,250 

-3%

7,200

29

£8,800 

-2%

7,600

33

13

£8,000 

23%

1,500

14

£11,250 

22%

11,600

60

£10,800 

23%

13,100

74

12Q1

£6,000 

9%

0

0

£9,500 

10%

1,200

4

£9,000 

11%

1,200

4

12Q2

£6,250 

4%

200

2

£10,000 

5%

3,400

7

£9,400 

4%

3,600

9

12Q3

£6,250 =

0%

200

2

£10,000 =

0%

2,200

14

£9,400 =

0%

2,400

16

12Q4

£6,500 

4%

0

0

£10,000 =

0%

400

4

£9,500 

1%

400

4

13Q1

£7,500 

15%

100

1

£10,500

5%

1,600

11

£10,100 

6%

1,700

12

13Q2

£7,750 

3%

400

4

£11,000 

5%

3,700

23

£10,500 

4%

4,100

27

13Q3

£8,000 

3%

200

3

£11,250 

2%

4,700

18

£10,800 

3%

4,900

21

13Q4

£8,000 =

0%

600

5

£11,250 =

0%

1,800

9

£10,800 =

0%

2,400

14

14Q1

£8,100 

1%

600

5

£11,250 =

0%

1,300

6

£10,800 =

0%

1,900

11

Figures in this review are from our comprehensive database of all sales of publicly marketed farmland over 50 acres; they are therefore transaction-based, other than the Scottish, Welsh and regional values which are from our regional farm agents as reliable figures cannot be generated from the small numbers of transactions in these areas. The figures exclude sales where the residential value of the sale is greater than 50% of the total. If you have any questions about this report, please contact: Dr Jason Beedell Head of Research t 01733 866562 e jason.beedell@smithsgore.co.uk

Contacts National Head of Farm Agency

Giles Wordsworth

London

0207 409 9490

England

Giles Wordsworth Sam Tydeman

London Newmarket

0207 409 9490 01638 676743

North East North West Yorkshire and Humber West Midlands East Midlands East of England South East South Central South West

Stephen McOwan Simon Waller William Douglas Ed de Lisle Luke Humphries Sam Tydeman William Banham Giles Wordsworth Harry St John Simon Derby Toby Perry Christopher Anderson

Corbridge Clitheroe York Lichfield Peterborough Newmarket Maidstone Oxford Oxford Taunton Exeter Truro

01434 632404 01200 411052 01904 756303 01543 266407 01733 559322 01638 676743 01732 879058 01865 733302 01865 733304 01823 445036 01392 294891 01872 274646

Head of Farms and Estates Agency Team

John Coleman

Edinburgh

0131 344 0881

Head of Property Investment and Valuations

Gerald FitzGerald

London

0207 409 9492

Scotland


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