Market Intelligence Report
Rural House Price Survey England May 2014 First signs of cooling in the house price recovery in Northern England while prices in Southern England rise even faster
smithsgore.co.uk
Rural House Price Survey May 2014
Andrew Turner Head of Residential Agency 01904 756303 andrew.turner @smithsgore.co.uk
Annual change in house prices (compared with 12 months ago)
This month’s Land Registry data shows a strong consolidation of price rises across a belt of Central and Southern England, with the East and South East both returning annual rises of 8.4%, and England’s smallest county, Rutland, leading the way outside London with 11.7%. Transaction levels have continued to rise across the country, and in the first quarter of 2014 were 35% higher than in the same period a year ago. Whilst the headline numbers continue to look encouraging, we are starting to see some heat coming out of the market in a few of our regions, as more property comes onto the market, better balancing buyers and sellers. These remain the most encouraging housing market conditions outside of London for many years, but without the scramble for property seen in the capital, and more houses coming onto the market to satisfy demand, the scaremongering of some commentators, concerned that we may be heading for a property ‘bubble’, seems misplaced.
Annual change in house prices Year to the end of May 2014
>8% 6 to 8% 4 to 6% 2 to 4%
Whilst there will always be localised hotspots which outperform their neighbours, it is clear from the ‘heat map’ that accessibility to London is driving price rises in the provinces, and the further away you are from London, the lower the pressures driving up prices. Affordability is key, and without the external influences experienced in London, it stands to reason that prices must be kept in check by relatively static wages and the well-publicised limits on new mortgage lending.
0 to 2% 0% 0 to -2% <-2%
Rural House Price Survey May 2014 Top 20 annual risers and fallers
Top 20 performers Greater London
18.5
London
Rutland
11.7
Northern
Brighton and Hove
9.8
Southern
Bracknell Forest
9.6
Southern
Medway
9.3
Southern
City of Bristol
8.9
Southern
City of Peterborough
8.9
Southern
West Sussex
8.7
Southern
Hertfordshire
8.6
Southern
Bedford
8.4
Southern
Slough
8.4
Southern
8
Southern
7.9
Southern
Cambridgeshire Wokingham Surrey
7.7
Southern
Kent
7.5
Southern
Lincolnshire
7.3
Northern
Halton
7.3
Northern
Suffolk
7.3
Southern
Milton Keynes
7.2
Southern
7
Southern
Oxfordshire
Bottom 20 performers
Urban
Rural
% change
% change
East Riding of Yorkshire
2.7
Northern
Redcar and Cleveland
2.6
Northern
Wiltshire
2.5
Southern
West Yorkshire
2.4
Northern
City of Derby
2.1
Northern
Torbay
2
Southern
Merseyside
2
Northern
Darlington
1.7
Northern
Cheshire West and Chester
1.6
Northern
Northumberland
1.5
Northern
Middlesbrough
1.3
Northern
Stockton-on-Tees
1.2
Northern
Wrekin
1.1
Northern
Durham
0.5
Northern
Cumbria
-0.4
Northern
Stoke-on-Trent
-0.7
Northern
City of Kingston Upon Hull
-0.7
Northern
Lancashire
-2.1
Northern
Hartlepool
-3.3
Northern
Blackburn with Darwen
-7.3
Northern
Methodology and definitions This analysis of housing markets is based on all residential property transactions made in England and notified to the Land Registry, so typically 50,000 or more transactions a month. Price changes for counties are seasonally adjusted rolling averages calculated using the most robust methodology, called Repeat Sales Regression, to ensure an â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;apples with applesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; comparison. Regional and England figures are unweighted averages of price changes in the region or country. Definition of rur al and urban areas Urban and rural counties are categorised by the proportion of the population living in rural areas: Urban areas
All rural areas Rural suburban areas
Mid rural areas
Very rural areas
Less than 26% living in rural areas
26 to 44% living in rural areas
45 to 69% living in rural areas
More than 70% living in rural areas
Blackburn with Darwen Blackpool Bournemouth Bracknell Forest Brighton and Hove City of Bristol City of Derby City of Kingston Upon Hull City of Nottingham City of Peterborough City of Plymouth Darlington Greater London Greater Manchester Halton Hartlepool Hertfordshire Leicester Luton Medway Merseyside Middlesbrough Milton Keynes NE Lincolnshire
Bedford Cheshire West and Chester Essex Hampshire Kent Lancashire Leicestershire Northamptonshire Nottinghamshire Redcar and Cleveland Staffordshire Warwickshire West Berkshire West Sussex Worcestershire
Urban areas
Poole Portsmouth Reading Slough South Gloucestershire South Yorkshire Southampton Southend-on-Sea Stockton-on-Tees Stoke-on-Trent Surrey Swindon Thurrock Torbay Tyne and Wear Warrington West Midlands West Yorkshire Windsor and Maidenhead Wokingham Wrekin York
Bath and NE Somerset Buckinghamshire Central Bedfordshire Cheshire East Derbyshire Dorset East Sussex Gloucestershire Herefordshire Norfolk North Lincolnshire North Somerset Oxfordshire Suffolk Wiltshire
Cambridgeshire Cornwall Cumbria Devon Durham East Riding of Yorkshire Isle of Wight Lincolnshire North Yorkshire Northumberland Rutland Shropshire Somerset
Estate Agency Contacts Andover Berwick-upon-Tweed Carlisle Clitheroe Corbridge Darlington Edinburgh Marlborough Oxford Petworth Stamford Stow-on-the-Wold Winchester Wooler York
Fin Hughes Barbara Pentecost Stephen McOwan Justin Swingler Stephen McOwan Melissa Lines John Coleman Edward Hall Harry St John Daniel Clay Annabel Morbey Robert Pritchard Philip Plambeck Patrick Paton Andrew Turner
01264 774900 01289 333030 01228 546400 01200 411046 01434 632404 01325 370500 0131 344 0880 01672 529056 01865 733300 01798 345994 01780 484696 01451 832832 01962 857427 01668 281611 01904 756303
If you would like to discuss housing markets, please contact Andrew Turner on 01904 756303 or andrew.turner@smithsgore.co.uk If you have any questions about the survey, please contact Dr Jason Beedell, Head of Research, on 01733 866562 or jason.beedell@smithsgore.co.uk