Market Intelligence Report
Rural House Price Survey England March 2014 Buyers and sellers Spring into action in the Shires
smithsgore.co.uk
Rural House Price Survey March 2014
Andrew Turner Head of Residential Agency 01904 756303 andrew.turner @smithsgore.co.uk
Annual change in house prices (compared with 12 months ago)
Impressive growth in sales volumes helps to keep a check on soaring values With the first full quarter’s figures in from Land Registry, the growth in the housing market can be seen to be firmly established. A slight fall in the monthly average house price in March is clearly just a ‘blip’ - the real story is that in every traditional English county apart from Durham, the market is showing positive annual growth. Of the rural counties, Rutland leads the way with annual growth of 10.3%, outstripping 11 London Boroughs. A better indicator of a fundamentally healthy market is the volume of sales, and the latest Land Registry figures show a dramatic 41% increase over the same period a year ago, with the biggest increase in the £500,000 to £600,000 bracket, proving that the recovery is not all about the activities of the super-rich in central London.
Annual change in house prices Year to the end of March 2014
>8% 6 to 8% 4 to 6% 2 to 4% 0 to 2% 0% 0 to -2%
At the sharp end, we are experiencing a transformation in the number of buyers, and a surge in houses coming onto the market. No one wants to see boom-bust, and if willing buyers and sellers are in some sort of equilibrium, this should help to keep a check on soaring price rises, with their inherent problems for struggling buyers, and risks to the wider UK economic recovery.
>-2%
Rural House Price Survey March 2014 Top 20 annual risers and fallers
Top 20 performers
% change
Greater London
13.8
London
City of Bristol
6.5
Southern
Windsor and Maidenhead
6.4
Southern
Southend-on-Sea
6.4
Southern
Hertfordshire
6.4
Southern
Surrey
6.2
Southern
West Sussex
6.0
Southern
Reading
6.0
Southern
Brighton and Hove
5.9
Southern
South Gloucestershire
5.8
Southern
Central Bedfordshire
5.4
Southern
Wokingham
5.4
Southern
Bedford
5.4
Southern
Kent
5.4
Southern
Poole
5.0
Southern
Bracknell Forest
5.0
Southern
West Berkshire
5.0
Southern
Halton
4.9
Northern
Rutland
4.9
Northern
Essex
4.6
Southern
Bottom 20 performers
% change
Hartlepool
1.8
Northern
Worcestershire
1.8
Northern
North East Lincolnshire
1.7
Northern
Cheshire East
1.7
Northern
North Lincolnshire
1.6
Northern
City of Peterborough
1.4
Southern
Lancashire
1.4
Northern
West Yorkshire
0.9
Northern
Cornwall
0.9
Southern
Darlington
0.9
Northern
Merseyside
0.8
Northern
Cumbria
0.7
Northern
South Yorkshire
0.5
Northern
Leicester
0.2
Northern
Tyne and Wear
-0.5
Northern
City of Kingston Upon Hull
-1.5
Northern
Redcar and Cleveland
-1.8
Northern
Stockton-on-Tees
-2.5
Northern
Durham
-4.2
Northern
Blackburn with Darwen
-6.9
Northern
Urban
Rural
Methodology and definitions This analysis of housing markets is based on all residential property transactions made in England and notified to the Land Registry, so typically 50,000 or more transactions a month. Price changes for counties are seasonally adjusted rolling averages calculated using the most robust methodology, called Repeat Sales Regression, to ensure an ‘apples with apples’ comparison. Regional and England figures are unweighted averages of price changes in the region or country. Definition of rur al and urban areas Urban and rural counties are categorised by the proportion of the population living in rural areas: Urban areas
All rural areas Rural suburban areas
Mid rural areas
Very rural areas
Less than 26% living in rural areas
26 to 44% living in rural areas
45 to 69% living in rural areas
More than 70% living in rural areas
Blackburn with Darwen Blackpool Bournemouth Bracknell Forest Brighton and Hove City of Bristol City of Derby City of Kingston Upon Hull City of Nottingham City of Peterborough City of Plymouth Darlington Greater London Greater Manchester Halton Hartlepool Hertfordshire Leicester Luton Medway Merseyside Middlesbrough Milton Keynes NE Lincolnshire
Bedford Cheshire West and Chester Essex Hampshire Kent Lancashire Leicestershire Northamptonshire Nottinghamshire Redcar and Cleveland Staffordshire Warwickshire West Berkshire West Sussex Worcestershire
Urban areas
Poole Portsmouth Reading Slough South Gloucestershire South Yorkshire Southampton Southend-on-Sea Stockton-on-Tees Stoke-on-Trent Surrey Swindon Thurrock Torbay Tyne and Wear Warrington West Midlands West Yorkshire Windsor and Maidenhead Wokingham Wrekin York
Bath and NE Somerset Buckinghamshire Central Bedfordshire Cheshire East Derbyshire Dorset East Sussex Gloucestershire Herefordshire Norfolk North Lincolnshire North Somerset Oxfordshire Suffolk Wiltshire
Cambridgeshire Cornwall Cumbria Devon Durham East Riding of Yorkshire Isle of Wight Lincolnshire North Yorkshire Northumberland Rutland Shropshire Somerset
Estate Agency Contacts Andover Berwick-upon-Tweed Carlisle Clitheroe Corbridge Darlington Edinburgh Marlborough Oxford Petworth Stamford Stow-on-the-Wold Winchester Wooler York
Fin Hughes Barbara Pentecost John Milburn Justin Swingler Stephen McOwan Melissa Lines John Coleman Edward Hall Harry St John Daniel Clay Annabel Morbey Robert Pritchard Philip Plambeck Patrick Paton Andrew Turner
01264 774900 01289 333030 01228 546400 01200 411046 01434 632404 01325 370500 0131 344 0880 01672 529056 01865 733300 01798 345994 01780 484696 01451 832832 01962 857427 01668 281611 01904 756303
If you would like to discuss housing markets, please contact Andrew Turner on 01904 756303 or andrew.turner@smithsgore.co.uk If you have any questions about the survey, please contact Dr Jason Beedell, Head of Research, on 01733 866562 or jason.beedell@smithsgore.co.uk