Market Intelligence Report
Rural House Price Survey England August 2014 Prices are continuing to rise across most of England
smithsgore.co.uk
Rural House Price Survey August 2014
Andrew Turner Head of Residential Agency 01904 756303 andrew.turner @smithsgore.co.uk
Annual change in house prices (compared with 12 months ago)
Whilst Land Registry figures provide the most powerful data available on the health of the housing market, there is an inevitable time lag between deals being done and transactions registered. Combined with the fact that agreed sales are often painfully slow to nurse through the legal process, this means that the data we are looking at now is evidence of market activity from 3, 4 or even 5 months ago. After 7 incredibly difficult years, it was perhaps naĂŻve to expect that the market would turn back on like a switch. What we are seeing is the spluttering back into life of a market which, outside of London, has been comatose since 2007.
Annual change in house prices Year to the end of July 2014 >8% 6 to 8% 4 to 6% 2 to 4%
Market activity from Easter until late June was strong in most areas; the Summer however has been disappointingly quiet across the country, with an imbalance in favour of buyers leading to downwards pressure on prices once more. To counter this, the past couple of weeks have seen an increase in the number of active buyers registering with our offices, which should put a competitive element back into the market. The best indicator of a healthy market isn’t a rise in prices, but an increase in the number of transactions, and the signs seem universally good that we are set on a course of improved sale volumes, spurred on by Help to Buy, cheap money, and improving employment prospects.
0 to 2% 0% 0 to -2% <-2%
Rural House Price Survey August 2014 Top 20 annual risers and fallers Top 20 performers
% change
Greater London
19.30
London
Slough
11.90
Southern
Thurrock
11.20
Southern
Hertfordshire
11.00
Southern
Bracknell Forest
10.90
Southern
Brighton and Hove
10.70
Southern
City of Bristol
10.30
Southern
Windsor and Maidenhead
10.20
Southern
Wokingham
10.20
Southern
Surrey
9.50
Southern
Milton Keynes
9.50
Southern
Medway
9.20
Southern
Luton
9.00
Southern
Reading
8.90
Southern
West Sussex
8.90
Southern
Rutland
8.70
Northern
Oxfordshire
8.60
Southern
South Gloucestershire
8.60
Southern
Cambridgeshire
8.40
Southern
Bedford
8.30
Southern
Bottom 20 performers
% change
Southampton
3.50
Southern
Torbay
3.50
Southern
East Riding of Yorkshire
3.30
Northern
Darlington
3.20
Northern
Tyne and Wear
3.20
Northern
West Midlands
3.20
Northern
Durham
3.20
Northern
Cheshire West and Chester
3.00
Northern
Northumberland
2.70
Northern
Merseyside
2.30
Northern
Herefordshire
1.90
Northern
Wrekin
1.70
Northern
Cornwall
1.50
Southern
Redcar and Cleveland
1.20
Northern
Cumbria
-0.10
Northern
Stoke-on-Trent
-0.20
Northern
Lancashire
-0.70
Northern
Middlesbrough
-1.80
Northern
Stockton-on-Tees
-2.60
Northern
Hartlepool
-5.80
Northern
Urban
Rural
Methodology and definitions This analysis of housing markets is based on all residential property transactions made in England and notified to the Land Registry, so typically 50,000 or more transactions a month. Price changes for counties are seasonally adjusted rolling averages calculated using the most robust methodology, called Repeat Sales Regression, to ensure an â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;apples with applesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; comparison. Regional and England figures are unweighted averages of price changes in the region or country. Definition of rur al and urban areas Urban and rural counties are categorised by the proportion of the population living in rural areas: Urban areas
All rural areas Rural suburban areas
Mid rural areas
Very rural areas
Less than 26% living in rural areas
26 to 44% living in rural areas
45 to 69% living in rural areas
More than 70% living in rural areas
Blackburn with Darwen Blackpool Bournemouth Bracknell Forest Brighton and Hove City of Bristol City of Derby City of Kingston Upon Hull City of Nottingham City of Peterborough City of Plymouth Darlington Greater London Greater Manchester Halton Hartlepool Hertfordshire Leicester Luton Medway Merseyside Middlesbrough Milton Keynes NE Lincolnshire
Bedford Cheshire West and Chester Essex Hampshire Kent Lancashire Leicestershire Northamptonshire Nottinghamshire Redcar and Cleveland Staffordshire Warwickshire West Berkshire West Sussex Worcestershire
Urban areas
Poole Portsmouth Reading Slough South Gloucestershire South Yorkshire Southampton Southend-on-Sea Stockton-on-Tees Stoke-on-Trent Surrey Swindon Thurrock Torbay Tyne and Wear Warrington West Midlands West Yorkshire Windsor and Maidenhead Wokingham Wrekin York
Bath and NE Somerset Buckinghamshire Central Bedfordshire Cheshire East Derbyshire Dorset East Sussex Gloucestershire Herefordshire Norfolk North Lincolnshire North Somerset Oxfordshire Suffolk Wiltshire
Cambridgeshire Cornwall Cumbria Devon Durham East Riding of Yorkshire Isle of Wight Lincolnshire North Yorkshire Northumberland Rutland Shropshire Somerset
Estate Agency Contacts Andover Berwick-upon-Tweed Carlisle Clitheroe Corbridge Darlington Edinburgh Marlborough Oxford Petworth Stamford Stow-on-the-Wold Winchester Wooler York
Fin Hughes Barbara Pentecost Stephen McOwan Justin Swingler Stephen McOwan Melissa Lines John Coleman Edward Hall Harry St John Daniel Clay Annabel Morbey Robert Pritchard Philip Plambeck Patrick Paton Andrew Turner
01264 774900 01289 333030 01228 546400 01200 411046 01434 632404 01325 370500 0131 344 0880 01672 529056 01865 733300 01798 345994 01780 484696 01451 832832 01962 857427 01668 281611 01904 756303
If you would like to discuss housing markets, please contact Andrew Turner on 01904 756303 or andrew.turner@smithsgore.co.uk If you have any questions about the survey, please contact Dr Jason Beedell, Head of Research, on 01733 866562 or jason.beedell@smithsgore.co.uk