14 minute read
Edwards takes 11th Congressional District over Beach-Ferrara
ther to the right than Dan Forrest,” Bitzer said.
On the Democrat side, it’s assumed Attorney General Josh Stein will run for governor, but there have also been rumblings he may be challenged in a primary by at least one serious candidate. Bitzer said it matters that Stein, the elected Attorney General for the last six years, has won two statewide elections.
“That helps in building a campaign toward 2024’s nomination,” Bitzer said.
Some Republicans The Smoky Mountain News spoke with expressed concerns that seeing Trump and Robinson at the top of their ticket may harm down-ballot candidates, and some of the Democrats outright said that’s exactly what they hope to see.
“If you have some of these extremists like Trump and Robinson at the top of the ticket in North Carolina, it’s going to cause a lot of Republicans and unaffiliated voters to reassess what kind of state they really want us to live in,” Turner said.
“I sure hope that Trump and Robinson are at the top of the ticket in 2024 because that would be the stupidest thing Republicans could do,” Meyer said.
In 2022, Trump-supported candidates — many of whom are ardent election deniers — fell short in races across the country, including Kari Lake, who ran for governor in Arizona, and Pennsylvania Senate hopeful Mehmet Oz. in North Carolina, Bo Hines, who lost his run for NC-13, frequently voiced support for Trump.
“Trump candidates are not attractive to a large swatch of voters,” Woodhouse said.
For example, Woodhouse was excited that freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn, a steadfast Trump supporter, lost his primary to Sen. Chuck Edwards, a Hendersonville Republican who won in the General Election against Democrat Jasmine BeachFerrara and will now represent NC-11 in Congress (see STORY, p. 6). He believes Edwards will be a far more competent legislator than Cawthorn.
“A lot of voters in the middle that are hesitant to vote for candidates that are completely engulfed in Trump. Ted Budd wasn’t, Chuck Edwards wasn’t,” he said.
While Woodhouse thinks Biden or even Vice President Kamala Harris appearing at the top of the Democratic ticket in 2024 would hurt that party’s down-ballot hopes, he also has plenty of concerns for his own side.
“I worry greatly about the future of my party, which I’ve spent a good deal of my adult lifetime working to support,” he said.
The kinds of bills the General Assembly takes up and how those votes shake out, especially how veto override votes and court cases play out, may have an impact on 2024 election results. Multiple people who spoke with SMN expressed the belief that House Speaker Tim Moore is likely to have a congressional district carved out for him in the 2024 maps — something that was attempted in 2022 but ultimately didn’t pan out.
REACHINGOUT
There’s no shortage of unique dynamics that could shape the crucial 2024 elections, but a big part of success for either party will be identifying areas where they can pick up persuadable voters — which despite a rise of unaffiliated voters still seems to be in shorter and shorter supply.
Republicans interviewed for this story said they need to up their efforts to court urban voters while Democrats wanted to figure out how to reach out to rural folks while also increasing turnout in population centers like Mecklenburg. That county came in under 44% turnout despite a statewide turnout of about 51%, which is itself lower than 2018 and a good deal lower than the 2020 presidential election cycle.
Bitzer noted that where the “real play” will be is in “urban suburbs,” in other words, outlying areas in urban counties, such as Buncombe County outside of Asheville or Mecklenburg County outside of Charlotte. Whoever can win in those areas while also shoring up their weaknesses whether in urban or rural areas, will have the best chance.
Whatley thinks his party has the perfect messaging to attract those traditionally liberal urban voters.
“Long-term, we have to be able to compete in urban, suburban areas and rural areas,” he said. “I think with our economic messaging, we can do that. It doesn’t matter where you live, you’re worried about inflation, gas prices, grocery prices.”
Meyers said that the Democratic brand has been damaged in rural areas in the eastern and western parts of the state, adding that it’ll take local leaders such as Canton’s Democratic Mayor, Zeb Smathers, to begin building a working-class message from the ground up.
“Zeb is taking care of jobs and providing recreation for people who live and retire here, but people hear more about AOC than the work he’s doing,” Meyers said.
Another element that may tip the scales in favor of Democrats is the state’s changing demographics as an influx of millennials and even younger voters continues to come into the state. While those people typically make their way to blue districts, this reliable Democratic voting bloc is also spilling into other counties. Buncombe County is well-known as Western North Carolina’s blue stronghold, however that element may be seeping into surrounding areas. In 2022, Henderson County, typically reliably red, only went 55-45 for Republicans.
“I think that continued in-migration and … the generational transformation of this state will play a large role,” Bitzer said. “Millennials who are now under 41 and particularly Gen Z, if they show up at their respective political weight, the state will go from purple with a slight red tint to purple with slight blue hue in it.”
Edwards takes 11th Congressional District over Beach-Ferrara
BY CORY VAILLANCOURT POLITICS EDITOR
Hendersonville’s three-term Republican Sen. Chuck Edwards is moving up in the world, from Raleigh to Washington, after defeating his Democrat and Libertarian opponents in the Nov. 8 General Election.
Now, Edwards will get to work trying to restore the trust of 11th District residents after the previous two Republican representatives basically abandoned the job.
Mark Meadows, now considered a central figure in former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, resigned his seat in Congress in March 2020 to become then President Donald Trump’s chief of staff, leaving Western North Carolina without a voice in Washington as the country struggled through a global pandemic and passed some of the largest spending packages in U.S. history.
After Meadows’ departure, during which he attempted to block out other Republican candidates in favor of Maggie Valley realtor Lynda Bennett, Hendersonville’s Madison Cawthorn slipped through a crowded Primary Election field to grab a spot in the runoff and subsequently win the nomination over the Trump-endorsed Bennett by almost 32 points.
Cawthorn was criticized for his poor attendance record on the Hill, and alienated establishment Republicans with inflammatory statements and a premature announcement that he’d run in a proposed new congressional district that ultimately never came to be.
Buncombe County Commissioner Jasmine Beach Ferrara became the first Democrat to challenge Cawthorn back in the spring of 2021, but once the final maps came down, Cawthorn had little choice but to return to the district that elected him after saying he’d run elsewhere.
After Cawthorn’s departure, Edwards declared his intent to seek the seat.
While running in the Primary Election campaign Edwards appeared at nearly a dozen forums, calling out Cawthorn’s absences, and then defeated Cawthorn in a hard-fought Primary Election during which it seemed each day brought a new scandal for Cawthorn.
Of the eight Republicans in the field, Edwards beat Cawthorn by just 1.57%, or 1,384 votes, out of more than 88,000 cast.
After the Primary Election Edwards refused to appear at any legitimate forum with his two opponents, instead opting for a taped appearance on a television station he’d paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to in the past for advertising.
The 11th Congressional District saw some changes during the redistricting process last year but remains largely the same as it was in 2020. Nonpartisan mapping website davesredistricting.org estimates the new 11th should perform at 53.6% for Republicans.
Edwards slightly overperformed; as of press time on Tuesday, Nov. 15, the North Carolina State Board of Elections showed Edwards with 53.94% of the vote.
Like Cawthorn, Edwards won every county in the district except Buncombe. Mark Meadows was the last Republican to win Buncombe, which he did in 2016 by about 1,000 votes.
Also like Cawthorn and Meadows, Edwards does not have a college degree and got his start making sandwiches. Edwards went on to become the owner of several McDonald’s franchises across Western North Carolina, and in 2020 took a $1.1 million PPP loan that he never paid back while also carving out a $50,000 tax break for himself while in the General Assembly.
Last month, Edwards told The Smoky Mountain News that he’d talked “many times with members of the Republican caucus in Washington and there is absolutely no interest from Republicans to cut Medicare or Social Security,” contradicting previous and subsequent claims by members of his own party.
Small business owner and Libertarian David Coatney finished a distant third in the race with 1.69% percent, but couldn’t outpace 2020 Libertarian nominee Tracy DeBruhl, who ended up with 1.92%.
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Mark Letson
WAVE, CONTINUED FROM 6 reversal of fortune for Letson, who lost to Democrat Mark Jones in 2020 by 7 votes.
Jones (Democrat) and Tom Stribling (Republican) weren’t on the ballot this year after their 2020 victories, meaning if current reurns hold up through the election certification date of Nov. 18, the Jackson Commission could go from a 4-to-1 Democrat majority to a 4to-1 Republican majority (see JACKSON, P. 14)
Similar Republican gains were apparent in local school board races. Republicans took both contested seats in Swain County and all four contested seats in Haywood County, but split two seats in Macon County.
Republicans also flipped several sheriff races, in historical fashion. Both Haywood and Jackson counties will have their first Republican sheriffs, possibly ever.
Republican Bill Wilke defeated Larry Bryson by 21 points in Haywood and Republican Doug Farmer topped Rick Buchanan by almost four points in Jackson. In Swain County, Republican Sheriff Curtis Cochran defeated Democrat Doug “Tank” Anthony by more than 43 points.
“We had some small wins,” Carey said. “Just to be frank, I don’t have all the data I need at this point to really take a deep dive, and I really think that’s something that needs to be looked at and analyzed. I think it comes down to us needing to reevaluate our strategy and reevaluating where we fell short.”
Results from other Haywood County races, however, could prove a liability for local Republicans after voters made some questionable choices at the polls that many claim put partisanship ahead of performance, said Haywood County Democratic Party Chair Myrna Campbell.
“It’s like they don’t care about the responsibility that citizens have to uphold the government,” she said.
The most shocking upset came when newcomer Sebastian Cothran, a 21-year-old Republican, defeated incumbent Democrat Greg West for the position of Haywood County Tax Collector.
West had pushed the county’s tax collection rate to new heights — despite being hobbled by the COVID-19 pandemic and tough economic times — but voters chose Cothran, who’s never had a real job besides mowing lawns.
Cothran is about to graduate from UNCAsheville as a double major in accounting and political science. As he assumes the tax collector position, he’ll have to maintain that collections rate or there will be serious consequences for county commissioners during the next budget cycle — one percent of collections is equivalent to roughly $460,000 in tax revenue.
“It’s just irresponsible,” Campbell said. “You know that the tax collector job is maybe the most critical in county government, because if the revenue doesn’t come in, then the county is in deep trouble and that’s why all the other counties in the state have this as an appointed position.”
The other surprise came in the form of a victory by Terry Ramey on the Haywood County Commission after he’d tried and failed to get elected to the body three previous times.
Generally, Haywood’s Republican incumbents did well on Nov. 8. Commissioner Jennifer Best led the five-way race with 24.58% of the vote, a few points shy of her ticket-leading Primary Election performance.
Tommy Long, who with Pless back in 2018 handed the Haywood Commission its first-ever Republican majority, finished a close second to Best with 22.45% of the vote.
Longtime Democratic incumbent and two-time chairman Kirk Kirkpatrick, however, was ousted by Ramey, who’d run as a Democrat in 2016, a Republican in 2018 and a Republican in 2020. He finished last in each of those Primary Elections.
Just prior to the General Election, it was first reported by The Smoky Mountain News that Ramey was the only candidate who owed back taxes to the county he was running to represent. At the time, Ramey disputed the bills, but told SMN that if they were valid, he’d pay them. Some of the bills are more than a decade old, totaling thousands of dollars.
County administrators confirmed that they’d met with Ramey, and that the bills were valid. Ramey has repeatedly threatened The Smoky Mountain News for reporting on his unpaid taxes.
“You know, they talk about being a lawand-order party and all that,” Campbell said. “Paying your taxes is the law and you’re breaking the law when you don’t pay. So to support a candidate like that, it certainly doesn’t deliver the right message.”
Putting local Democrats into position to capitalize on the results of the 2022 General Election will take time, and work, according to Campbell. That could involve a more concerted effort to involve Gen Z voters, who are largely credited with helping to break the red wave before it made it all the way from Western North Carolina, through Raleigh, to Washington, D.C.
“We need to start with getting some new blood, some new leadership in the at the precinct level. Young voters are what won for Democrats nationally, and I think we need to push to get more young voters involved here in Haywood County as well,” Campbell said. “That was a priority of mine when I first became chair, but I didn’t focus on it enough. That needs to be the focus in 2023.”
Democrats across the 11th Congressional District and the state of North Carolina will convene this spring to consider new leadership from a precinct to a county level, but when Haywood Dems consider their ballots, Campbell may not be on it.
“I haven’t totally decided that. I really think it’s time to pass the torch. This was my fourth term. I didn’t really intend to run a fourth time, but I formed a nominating committee in 2021 and they didn’t come up with a slate, so I was willing to do another term,” said Campbell, who previously served as a high-level aide to NC-11’s last Democratic Congressman, Heath Shuler. “But I really think it’s time for new leadership all around.”
Carey, who will serve in her NC-11 chair role at least until that position goes up for election in May, remains optimistic about Democratic efforts to regroup by 2024.
“I think, more than anything, this is going to take time,” she said. “It’s going to take time, and we just have to stay hopeful and motivated about the future, which I certainly am. I think we need to work a little bit more closely with the state to make sure that our candidates are also receiving the quality of support that they need. We have some of the most dedicated, talented volunteers working in the Democratic Party and we do not fall short of having people with a lot of heart. Knowing that makes is what makes me feel so hopeful about the future.”
Sebastian Cothran Jennifer Best
