Builders Outlook
www.elpasobuilders.com
But first, they have to move out of their parents’ homes and into a place of their own, said NAHB Assistant Vice President for Survey Research Rose Quint. In 2015, about 15 percent of adults ages 25-34 lived with a parent, about 3 percent more than the highest share between 1983 and 2007 – 12 percent. That translates into 1.3 million people who normally "would be out there, forming their own households, demanding their own units," either as buyers or renters, she said. Quint had anticipated that new mortgage programs and looser mortgage insurance requirements unveiled a year ago would have led to an increase in consumers buying homes for the first time. But a look at the size of the typical new singlefamily home in 2015 found the opposite: home sizes grew to an average of 2,721 square feet, the highest yet, and an indication that the new-home market continues to be dominated by move-up buyers, rather than first-time buyers. "Before we see that expected pullback in square footage and price, we’re going to have to see a significant return of the first-time buyer," who is more likely to buy a smaller home at a lower price point, Quint said. This year, home buyers of all ages say they are looking for homes with separate laundry rooms, energy-star appliances and windows, exterior lighting and a patio. What they don’t want are rooms with cork flooring, elevators, pet washing stations, expensive outdoor kitchens and fireplaces, and two-story entryways and family rooms. And their countertops should be granite, but never laminate, according to a Fall 2015 survey of potential buyers. In terms of house type, buyers want a detached, single-family home: 65 percent of all buyers and 68 percent of millennials expressed that
preference. That number rises to 72 percent with Gen X (born between 1965 and 1979) but falls somewhat to 55 percent with those born before 1945, Quint said. Better Homes and Gardens Brand Executive Editor Jill Waage echoed Quint’s findings on preferences for well-equipped kitchens and casual, comfortable living spaces – especially outdoor living rooms, where millennials want to entertain their families and friends. What’s important about this generation is their comfort with technology. Millennials "are leading the way on this," Waage said. "They are the first generation to walk into homeownership with a smartphone in their hands." These millennials want to use technology to make entertainment choices easier, monitor the comings and goings of packages, repairmen and their children, and improve their health and well-being. When it comes to product choices, "they’ve read the ratings, comments and reviews, and they know what’s worth it," and have probably created a Google alert so they know when it’s on sale, she said. Their home improvement preferences center on home organization and workspaces, as the separation between working in an office and telecommuting continues to blur. "This generation is searching out ideas, following bloggers," and creating Pinterest boards with their preferences, Waage said. "They’ve already curated their dream home online, saving it on their boards so they can [be ready] when the day finally comes." The survey results are also important to home builders in the 55+ market, said David Peskin, president of Reverse Mortgage Funding LLC (RMF), which sponsored the NAHB study on consumer preferences. “The boomer generation is currently experiencing a transition to their next
National, State & Local Building Industry News 2016: Issue 1
Millennials to Shape Housing Preferences – Once They Start Buying
The millennial generation is poised to make a significant impact on home design with their strong preferences for energy efficiency and smart home technology; comfortable, workable kitchens and more casual spaces, said speakers today from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Better Homes and Gardens. Both spoke at a press conference on housing preferences for millennials, Gen X, boomers and seniors held during the NAHB International Builder’s Show In Las Vegas.
phase of life, so the home building and finance industries should commit to better understand the wants and needs of this generation to offer the best possible solutions for them," Peskin said. "The results of this important survey shed light on the buying preferences of older Americans, and confirm that an uneasiness over finances is one of the primary
reasons they are hesitant about relocating to a new residence that better suits their needs. At RMF, we are committed to helping home owners age 62 and older meet their financial needs, so this data will be informative to the way we educate consumers about our Home Equity Conversion Mortgage for Purchase (H4P) product."
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Builders Outlook
HEAT UP YOUR SALES WITH NATURAL GAS. Nothing is more attractive to homebuyers than the right mix of comfort and value. Natural gas homes can provide both. Natural gas furnaces are more efficient than their electric counterparts, and natural gas dryers can dry two loads of laundry for the cost of drying one load in an electric model.* For more information: ElPasoNewBusiness@TXGas.com William Nieves: 915-496-6126 Jorge Sejera: 915-680-7216 *Source: Council for Responsible Energy
2016 issue 1
2016 issue 1
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Builders Outlook
President’s Message
Year off to shaky start but El Paso is steady as she goes
Carlos Villalobos
“Even during the worst housing crisis in recorded history, we were starting about 2,640 homes a year, in 2015 we only pulled around 2,000 permits. We haven’t started less than 2,000 in 20 years, so it is very unlikely that we start less than that in 2016.”
President, El Paso Association of Builders
The year got off to a shaky start, with the Dow Jones losing over 1,000 points or 6% in the first week, oil prices settling at their lowest level since February 2004, China facing a considerable economic slowdown and an across the board commodities crash signaling we have oversupplied the market with production capacity and inventoried goods. We’ve seen better days, but such is the nature of economic cycles. At the end of the day, a lot comes down to consumer sentiment, people will keep buying homes if they feel confident in the economy and security in their jobs, and of course, have money in their pockets. Fortunately for us, lower prices at the pump mean more money in consumer’s pockets and thus more
disposable income for goods and services, did anybody say mortgage payment? Another positive for us here in El Paso is that according to past performance, we should have nowhere to go but up. For those of you who attended the installation in December and had to sit through my nerdy presentation, you might remember the graph that represents starts in El Paso for the past 15 years. (Pictured above) This graph shows that even during the worst housing crisis in recorded history, we were starting about 2,640
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homes a year, in 2015 we only pulled around 2,000 permits. We haven’t started less than 2,000 in 20 years, so it is very unlikely that we start less than that in 2016. Another important issue at stake here is lot availability. It’s been getting harder and harder for developers to produce affordable lots given today’s development costs, we can only hope that the commodities crash will help alleviate some of the costs associated with developing land, such as diesel, hot mix asphalt and concrete. It is my opinion that tight supply of
affordable lots has created some upward pressure on affordable housing demand in the Sun City, I believe the low number of starts we had last year is another representation of this phenomenon. In conclusion, I predict a little bit more of the same for 2016, El Paso seems to walk to the beat of its own drum and that drum has been knocking out at least 2,000 homes per year for the past 20 years, so let’s keep our heads up and build El Paso.
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Builders Outlook
2016 Issue 1
Executive’s Message Ray Adauto, Executive Vice President EPAB A trip to Las Vegas to visit the International Builders Show (IBS) was just what the doctor ordered. I got to visit with old friends, make new ones, and most of all hang around our members away from home. Thanks to all of you that took the time and expense to go. My special thanks to Randy and Bobby, Edmundo and Carlos, Fernando and Sam. Also to Randall and his family for a great start to the week. Make plans for Orlando next year and the year after. I hope to be able to go then as well. Going away has its advantages, but once you get back you realize really quickly that you’re not in Vegas anymore. It’s a challenging time for us at the EPAB mostly because we’ve changed our routine and it’s creating some confusion, mostly about dues. Let me repeat
What do Las Vegas, the Pope and home building have in common?
here that we have changed the due date for all members to January of the calendar year for renewals. That means that no matter if you used to be billed in April, you are now going to be billed in the months of November and December for payment of dues by the end of January. If you haven’t paid by then you are considered in default of membership. With the move to January and the dues increase some of you are now realizing we just made the change. If you have any questions on that please call me. But most importantly mark your calendar for January dues. Now isn’t that simple? The Pope is coming, the Pope is coming and this city is going to experience something either magical or frightening. Traffic on
the week of February 15 is going to be brutal, according to all the information we know. If you don’t need to be south of the I-10 on Papal day February 17 then don’t. Schools are closing, city hall is closing, and downtown will be cordoned off. Even sections of Loop 375, the border highway, Paisano and others will be shut down. See our accompanying press release from the City of El Paso. Be safe, be cautious.
Finally I have had the opportunity to be invited to speak before some financial folks about new home construction in El Paso. Some things that are being looked at is what is hurting the industry? Is it over regulation, tougher qualifying for customers, and higher land prices or does it come from the one big thing we can control. That’s bonuses to realtors and agents. This is a questionable practice that is anti-consumer and anti-industry some say. Things are already tough enough without these costly adventures. Trust me that it is a local practice that doesn’t make economic sense to any builder. And it looks like its inviting regulators to inspect the practice. Just saying, don’t gamble with your business this way.
2016 issue 1
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Builders Outlook
National Builder News Builder Confidence Holds Firm in January
n Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes held steady at 60 in January from a downwardly revised December reading of 60 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. “After eight months hovering in the low 60s, builder sentiment is reflecting that many markets continue to show a gradual improvement, which should bode well for future home sales in the year ahead,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo. “January’s HMI reading is right in line with our forecast of modest growth for housing,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The economic outlook remains promising, as consumers regain confidence and home values increase, which will help the housing market move forward.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores for each
component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The HMI component gauging current sales condition rose two points 67 in January. The index measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell three points to 63, and the component charting buyer traffic dropped two points to 44. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, all four regions registered slight declines. The Northeast, Midwest and West each posted a one-point decline to 49, 57 and 75, respectively, while the South fell two points to 61.
Residential Remodeling Spending Trending Up
n Spending on residential remodels will
continue to trend upward, according to experts at a press conference hosted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Remodelers at the International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas. Professional remodelers from around the country agreed with the forecast, citing clients’ increased financial security. NAHB projects that remodeling spending for owner-occupied single-family homes will increase 1.1 percent in 2016 over 2015, and another 1.9 percent in 2017.
BUILDING
NAHB projects that remodeling spending for owner-occupied singlefamily homes will increase 1.1 percent in 2016 over 2015, and another 1.9 percent in 2017. “Our remodeler members have regained confidence in the market as home owners move forward with new remodeling projects, as reflected in the positive fourth quarter results of NAHB’s Remodeling Market Index,” said 2016 NAHB Remodelers Chair Tim Shigley, CAPS, CGP, GMB, GMR, a remodeler from Wichita, Kan. “NAHB Remodelers looks forward to working in a strengthened market as remodeling continues to increase in popularity.” “After recent revisions, Census estimates now indicate that improvements to owner occupied housing increased at a real rate of 1.3 percent last year, which is consistent with NAHB’s expectations and our measure of remodelers’ sentiment,” said Paul
El Pa aso
Emrath, NAHB’s vice president for survey and housing policy research. “Going forward, we expect this modest growth in the market to continue, fueled in part by steady appreciation in house prices that will enable owners to tap into their home equity to fund remodeling projects.” “While the economic recovery has brought about a surge of remodeling activity for second homes in our market, access to credit continues to hamper the remodeling market’s full potential locally,” said Jeff Grantham, CAPS, CGP, CGR, GMB, a remodeler from Petoskey, Mich. “We remodel many of these homes to make them accessible to family members of all ages.”
SINCE 1950
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Builders Outlook
Financial Perspective
Elliot Eisenberg Economic & Policy Blog
Looking at 2016, the domestic economic landscape looks solid, albeit unspectacular. The unemployment rate should continue falling, house prices are likely to rise by 5%, and the economy will be led almost entirely by the continuing improvement in household balance sheets, and in conjunction with increased employment and slightly faster wage growth. Government spending will be slightly higher in 2016 (but not enough to matter), capital expenditures by firms will remain weak, and exports will continue to suffer due to the strong US dollar. The most serious domestic problem is weak inflation, and it should
2016 Issue 1
Economic Forecast: 2016: Slightly Better Than 2015 begin to increase. Despite continuing poor global economic growth, the American economy will not weaken, but is also unlikely to strengthen much. With this in mind, I expect full-year 2016 GDP to come in at 2.4%, slightly higher than the expected 2.2% GDP growth experienced in 2015. New housing starts should increase by about 12%, with total starts coming in at 1.25 million. Single-family starts will likely total 830,000, up from 710,000, while multifamily starts should hit 410,000, up from 400,000. New and existing home sales should rise by about 4% and end the year at 6.0 million, with mortgage purchase volume advancing by $60 billion and refinance activity falling by about $250 billion. Housing inventories should jump by about 150,000 units, to 5.5 months of inventory, up from 5.0 months now. Given the continued improving labor market, expect net new monthly job growth to average 185,000/month, which while down from 205,000/month in 2015, is excellent given the
shrinking size of the working age population. As a result, the unemployment rate should fall from 5.0% today to between 4.6% and 4.8% by year end and possibly lower, depending upon the behavior of the labor force participation rate (LFPR). If the LFPR rises, and that would be good, unemployment may end the year as high as 4.8%, but if the LFPR continues to fall, an unemployment rate of 4.6% or even 4.5% is distinctly possible. As for inflation, headline inflation will noticeably increase while core inflation (which excludes food and energy) edges up only slightly. Inflation should rise because energy and commodity prices are not likely to fall further and the dollar is unlikely to continue strengthening. As a result, the downward pressure these forces have exerted on headline inflation will cease and headline inflation, now at 0.3%, should move towards the core rate which is now at 1.3% and will probably rise to 1.7% by year end, which is still below the Fed target of 2%. As a
result, the Federal Reserve will have the luxury of time to slowly raise the federal funds rate from where it is now, between 0.25% and 0.50%, to between 1.00% and 1.25% by year end, with a rate increase coming every three to four months As a result of slightly faster GDP growth and falling unemployment in 2016, 10-year Treasuries will end the year at 2.75% and 30-year mortgage rates will probably hover around 4.5% as the yield curve flattens due to faster rising short-term rates. But slightly easing credit conditions and rising consumer spending due to improving employment numbers and wages will keep the economy and housing market on track despite mildly higher interest rates. Finally, I put the chances of a recession in 2016 at 15% to 20%. So look forward to steady economic activity in 2016 and fear not slowly ascending interest rates.
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at Elliot@graphsandlaughs.net. His daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.
U.S. recession cries get louder
America's economy is not in a recession, but fears of one are growing fast. http://money.cnn.com/
The chance of the U.S. sinking into a full-blown recession now stand at 18%, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists this week. That's nearly double what the nation's top economic policymaker predicted only a month ago. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen put the probability of a recession in 2016 at about 10% during her December press conference after the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in years. She has said repeatedly that she thinks a recession is not on the horizon. The U.S. has enjoyed two years of incredibly strong job growth -the best since 1999 -- and the economy is expanding at a healthy pace of around 2% a year. "There are plenty of things to worry about in the world, but the health and ongoing strength of the U.S. economy is not one of them," says James Smith of EconForecaster.com. But the risks are rising, and the pessimists are getting bolder in their predictions. The stock market is off to its worst start ever to a year. China's stock market is tanking again, pulling much of Europe and Asia into bear market territory. While it's clear that China's economy is slowing down, no one is certain just how bad it is. Chinese data is questionable, and the country's head
statistician is now under investigation for possible corruption. While the U.S. remains healthy for now, to paraphrase John Donne, "no economy is an island" anymore. There's a spillover effect. American stocks plunged into correction (a 10% drop) this month as investors don't see how U.S. companies can continue to grow a lot when China and so many emerging markets are having issues. Citigroup predicted a 65% chance of a U.S. recession, a call that was so eyebrow raising that Yellen herself felt the need to swat it away, calling it "absolutely" wrong. The stock market almost never leads the economy into a recession. It's usually the other way around. "The equity market has completely divorced itself from U.S. economic fundamentals," says Bernard Baumohl, chief economist at The Economic Outlook Group. "Low interest rates, cheap oil prices, and the lowest input costs ever for business are not -- and never will be -- the precursors of recession." Nearly all the experts say the key is the American consumer. As long as people keep spending, the U.S. -- and the world -- should pull through. But there are warning signs even beyond the stock market. "The manufacturing sector is already in recession," says Brett Ryan, chief economist at Deutsche Bank. Ryan
and many economists told CNNMoney they are watching claims for unemployment benefits closely as an indicator that the strain is moving beyond manufacturing and into other parts of the economy. Beyond jobs, Ryan is also watching car sales, tax receipts and loans (specifically the Fed's senior loan officer survey). So far, everything other than manufacturing still looks solid. The Fed's modest interest rate hike was supposed to be a vote of confidence that the U.S. economy had finally put the Great Recession behind it and was back on solid footing. But now Washington, Wall Street and Main
Street question if that optimism is far too rosy. The Fed predicts four more rate hikes in 2016. Investors now think that's far-fetched and will be watching the central bank's statement closely on Wednesday for signs the Fed is "on hold" again. "It's no leap to say the four rate hikes envisioned by the Fed this year seem increasingly implausible," wrote Morgan Stanley in a recent report. "Stall speed in the U.S., or even a shift to a lower channel of growth, would likely halt the Fed in its tracks."
2016 ISSUE 1
Buildeers Outlook On the Scene Board Member Orientation
The 2016 Board of Directors had an orientation on what and how’s of being a director for the association. Ray Adauto did a quick review of what the association is and isn’t and how each director must conform to regulations that affect the board. “What I want them to go out with is the understanding that this is much a business as it is anything else, and we have responsibilities to uphold,” Ray told the Outlook. Among the issues that were presented was the importance of protecting sensitive information that is discussed at Board meetings, or within the financial information that is learned and discussed. “I think what Ray wanted to do is to emphasize to us that there are real responsibilities as an elected or appointed member of the Board,” said President Carlos Villalobos. “We are the ultimate responsible party and I’m glad we all agree to uphold the directorship,” he continued.
Builders Outlook
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Buildeers Outlook On the Scene
International Builders Show, Las Vegas
It’s Vegas Baby!
By Ray Adauto The 2016 edition of the International Builders Show took place in Las Vegas January 19-21. The annual gathering of product, services, education and fun was held at the Las Vegas Convention Center. “Surfaces” the show for counter tops and related items was held at the Mandalay Bay Hotel on the south strip. The IBS has grown to include KBIS, the kitchen and bath show along with window coverings show. No matter how prepared you think you are the show takes at least two full days to see and more than likely three. The National Association of Builders along with state and local associations come together for education on all types of subjects. Those classes begin on the Saturday before the exhibitions open and continue after the exhibitors close. This year the El Paso Association of Builders continued to be well represented at the IBS. Although this reporter wasn’t able to see everyone who did attend from El Paso I was able to run into several members. Frank and Isela Torres took in Las Vegas early, enjoying a quick non-stop on the same plane I took. The flight went well but at the luggage carousel we encountered an unusual sight of a piece of luggage hung up against the conveyor belt and the carousel. Several times we were told that there appeared to be a problem and that help would be coming. Finally after 45 minutes they diverted our luggage to another carousel and we were off. If you’ve ever been to Vegas for a convention you know that in spite of the preparedness of the city things can and do go wrong. Imagine if you will having one hundred thousand people coming into town and then throw in filming for the new Bourne film. Exactly what happened and that meant traffic was a nightmare. For those taking taxis the cost of travel multiplied as the meter kept running during the long waits at lights, diversions, and closures. For those driving you had to figure alternate routes. Still transportation to and from the IBS went pretty well on the provided buses. There are several halls at the show and we started at the north hall for KBIS, simply one of the best parts of this show. Whatever you could imagine was on display from giant companies like Delta and Moen, to some of the smaller boutique or international companies trying to get a foothold in the market. Because of the international flavor visitors came from all around the world, looking and making deals. The central halls were where the IBS or builders show took place. Hundreds of thousands of square feet of all things for building, from trucks to tumblers, nails to glues everything you need to build was on display. I found several items of interest here mostly having to do with insulation and alternative energy. Contrary to tradition these alternate ways to get water, provide electricity or dampen the cold were really growing and maturing. One particular vendor showed how to capture drinking water from the air, a sort of machine out of the future. Others showed the latest in lighting with heavy emphasis on LED technology. In the South hall many smaller companies showed off their products including several companies launching new products at this show. Asia, and in particular China was well represented again. Some exciting products from Mexico and Canada were also displayed. Edmundo Dena (Accent Homes) and Carlos Villalobos (EPAB President and Pointe Homes) toured with me on Wednesday and came away enthusiastic with what they saw. “I was hoping to find something that I can use at Accent to bring more of a wow factor to my product line, and I think I found several items I’ll be looking at more closely,” said Dena. “I agree that we came to see something, exactly what I don’t know but that’s what’s great about a huge show like this, you’ll find something
unexpected, just like I did,” President Villalobos said. Both agreed that the show is overwhelming especially for the first timer. “Even though we have been here before there’s always new things to look at,” said Leti Navarrete who along with husband Javier enjoyed the show. Member that I saw were from Classic American Homes, Pacifica Homes, CTU Metro Homes, Cullers and Caldwell, Cullers Homes, Tropicana Homes, Bella Vista Homes, Custom Dream Homes, MA Homes, Crown Heritage Homes, Morrison Supply, Ferguson Supply, GMF Homes, Accent Homes. If I missed some of you I’m
sorry but there’s so much going on that sometimes I only saw folks away from the show. My thanks to all of you who shared the experience with me or sat enjoyed Vegas at the restaurants, tables, or show floor. I’ll think you all will agree that nothing compares to a show like the IBS/KBIS in Vegas. Next year the show moves to Orlando, Florida. It’s Disney and Universal versus Caesars and the Wynn. Make plans to attend the 2017 IBS/KBIS in Orlando.
City prepares for Papal Visit
El Paso, Texas – The City of El Paso is preparing to impose traffic control and operational changes in the interest of public safety, health and welfare as a result of Pope Francis landmark visit to the border. Pope Francis will be in Juárez on February 17, 2016. He will not visit El Paso. However, due to the proximity of his motorcade route and mass to the El Paso-Juárez border, the City of El Paso will restrict travel in downtown and South-Central El Paso. Enhanced traffic control will also be necessary near the Sun Bowl where the Catholic Diocese of El Paso will have a celebration on the day of the Pope’s visit to commemorate the historic event. Travel Updates, Road Closures For safety purposes, the public is being asked to avoid traveling to downtown and South-Central El Paso on the day of the papal border visit. The City of El Paso will not provide any mass viewing areas related to the papal border visit. The Mass in Juárez will not be visible from El Paso roadways. Loop 375 will be closed as part of security measures. The public will not be allowed to gather on Loop 375. The Information about the Diocese’s event at the Sun Bowl is available at http://www.elpasodiocese.org/popesvisit.html. The public’s cooperation and patience in abiding by the travel restrictions and enhanced traffic control in downtown, South-Central and West-Central will be appreciated. El Paso Police and Fire officials have been meeting regularly with other public safety and law enforcement agencies to prepare for the visit and to coordinate efforts. Planned road closures and travel restrictions include: • Loop 375 from U.S. Highway-54 to Santa Fe will be closed in both directions to traffic (vehicular, pedestrian, bicycle, etc.) for approximately a 24-hour period starting at 3 a.m. on February, 17, 2016. • Loop 375 from U.S. Highway-54 to
Yarbrough will be closed to traffic (vehicular, pedestrian, bicycle, etc.) from 10 a.m. until the Pope departs the Mass location and his motorcade travels away from roadways adjacent to the El PasoJuárez. • City streets in South-Central El Paso bounded by Loop 375 to the south, Campbell to the west, Paisano to the north and Coles/First to the east will have limited access to traffic (vehicular, pedestrian, bicycle, etc.) starting at 3 a.m. on February 17, 2016. Access in the restricted area will be limited to residents and businesses. Once Pope Frances arrives at the Mass location in Juárez no one will be allowed to leave or re-enter the restricted area until the Pope departs the mass. • Campbell from Paisano to Interstate 10 will be closed to vehicular traffic starting at 3 a.m. on February 17, 2016. The closure will remain until the Pope departs the mass. • Cotton from Paisano to Interstate 10 will be closed to vehicular traffic starting at 3 a.m. on February 17, 2016. The closure will remain until the Pope departs the mass. • Delta will be closed from Paisano to Boone will be closed to vehicular traffic starting at 3 a.m. on February 17, 2016. The closure will remain until the Pope departs the mass. • Additional closures may be necessary should plans related to the papal border visit change. Community Meetings The City of El Paso is hosting community meetings in South-Central to notify residents and businesses of traffic control plans impacting their neighborhoods. Three meetings will be held at the Armijo Recreation Center gymnasium at 700 E. Seventh
Here is what you need to know:
Avenue. Meeting time and dates: • 1:30 p.m. Wednesday, January 27, 2016 • 10:30 a.m. Thursday, January 28, 2016 • 6 p.m. Monday, February 1, 2016\
International Bridges All international ports of entry in the region, including Paso Del Norte, Stanton Street, and Ysleta, will be open in both directions on February 17, 2016. The public is asked to plan ahead if traveling across the border. The Office of Emergency Management in El Paso recommends traveling across the border at least a day in advance for those planning on participating in papal events in Juárez. Customs and Border Protection has committed to assisting with moving traffic steadily northbound at the border by having all lanes open on February 17, 2016. Commercial traffic will be rerouted on February 17, 2016 from the Bridge of the Americas to Ysleta to assist with mitigating traffic. Anyone traveling across the border should carry a current passport or border crossing card. The public’s cooperation and patience will be appreciated at the Paso Del Norte, Stanton Street and Ysleta bridges as delays in getting through toll collection stations may occur due to the increase international travelers. Providing toll collectors with exact change will assist in keeping delays to a minimum. Debit and credit card payments will be accepted. Mexican currency will also be accepted. Fare information is available at www.elpasotexas.gov/internationalbridges/fares. Sun Metro Fixed routes will be serving customers traveling to downtown El Paso on February 17, 2016. They will have extended hours on that day with the last buses leaving at 10:15 p.m.
Several Sun Metro routes will be detoured as a result of the planned road closures. Service delays should be expected for all routes serving the Downtown Transfer Center. Information about detoured routes is available at www.pope915.com and may be obtained by calling (915) 2123333. Park and Ride Park and Ride services will be available to the Sun Bowl on February 17, 2016. Park and Ride roundtrip fare to the Sun Bowl is $3. Exact change is required. Parking is free at Sun Metro lots. Departures to the Sun Bowl will be scheduled for every 30 minutes between 10 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. at all locations. Park and Ride locations: • Eastside Transfer Center, 1165 Sunmount near Cielo Vista Mall • Far Eastside: Edgemere at R.C. Poe • Mission Valley Transfer Center, 9065 Alameda • Northeast Transfer Center, at Diana and Dyer • Al Jefferson Westside Transfer Center, 7535 Remcon
City Office Closures The City of El Paso will be operating under a modified work week. All administrative offices will be open on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The city is working on Friday in lieu of its regular Wednesday work day due to the papal border visit. Essential personnel will follow a normal work schedule. Stay Informed Information about traffic control, travel and City service operational changes related to the papal border visit is available at www.pope915.com. The public may also access information by clicking on the Pope915 banner at the City’s homepage at www.elpasotexas.gov or by subscribing to social media using Twitter hashtag #pope915 or liking the City of El Paso on Facebook @ www.facebook.com/elpasotexasgov.
The value of your EPAB Membership just got even better!
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10
Builders Outlook
Legislature The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) urged Congress to pass legislation that would help streamline programs to help low-income home buyers and renters. “The Housing Opportunity Through Modernization Act of 2015 (H.R. 3700) includes many NAHBsupported bipartisan fixes to HUD programs, specifically regarding Section 8, FHA and rural housing,” NAHB Immediate Past Chairman Kevin Kelly testified at a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee’s Housing and Insurance Subcommittee. Introduced by Subcommittee Chairman Blaine Luetkemeyer (RMo.), the legislation includes a number of reforms to increase access to affordable rental housing, provide assistance to low-income renters and facilitate homeownership. Specifically, the bill would:
2016 issue 1
Home Builders Support House Bill that Streamlines HUD Programs
recent executive order on Federal Flood Risk Management Standards could result in unintended consequences for housing. The executive order expands floodplains management requirements far beyond the long-established 100-year floodplains limits for all federally funded construction projects. HUD has indicated it will apply the new flood risk management standard to multifamily projects using FHAbacked loans for new construction and substantial rehabilitation as well as Community Development Block Grants and HOME grants. However, HUD has not mapped the geographic limits of the floodplain nor analyzed the costs and benefits of implementing the new standard. To avoid undermining the many positive outcomes H.R. 3700 will have on housing affordability, NAHB is
urging HUD to develop and release for public comment a cost-benefit analysis associated with the new standard and identify the additional floodplain area for which future HUD actions must comply before it begins to implement the executive order. “We strongly urge HUD to use any
and all flexibility when implementing the order to ensure HUD’s rules do not make construction or substantial rehabilitation of HUD-financed or HUD-assisted multifamily housing cost prohibitive,” said Kelly.
• Allow the contract terms of HUD’s Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program to be extended from 15 to 20 years. • Pare down duplicative requirements that have made the Section 8 program difficult to administer.
• Protect Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher residents from displacement due to fluctuations in the Fair Market Rent, which determines payment standard amounts for the voucher program.
• Change the Rural Housing Service Single Family Guaranteed Loan Program so that it will be current with other government loan programs while providing efficiencies for home buyers and lenders.
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• Create a Multifamily Housing Revitalization Program to provide affordable rural multifamily housing.
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• Reduce current FHA regulations surrounding existing condominium projects, including streamlining project certification rules and reducing owner-occupancy requirements.
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“Rep. Luetkemeyer’s bill makes necessary and common-sense changes to important housing programs,” said Kelly. “It will reduce costs to taxpayers and improve access to affordable housing to those most in need. We urge the House to act swiftly to advance this bill.” Executive Order on Floodplain Rules Could Harm Housing Affordability While this legislation would help housing affordability, Kelly expressed concerns that President Obama’s
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2016 issue 1
Builders Outlook
In History Architecture
Mabel Welch (1890-1981)
11
El Paso's first and greatest female architect
A wife and mother in her 20s. A widow and the sole owner of a construction business at 35. A University student at 46. A registered architect at 49.
I
n today’s American culture, women are encouraged to follow their dreams regardless of age. But for a woman who moved from Mississippi to Texas in 1900 in a covered wagon to marry late, have her first child at almost 30, run a successful business and go to a university in her 40s in the early part of the twentieth century was most unusual. Mabel Clair Vanderburg Welch never blinked an eye. As she once said, “Things had to be done, and I managed to get them done.” Mabel Welch accompanied her husband from DeKalb, Texas, to El Paso in 1916, looking for a cure for his tuberculosis. Born near Longtown, Mississippi, she would not only embrace her new home but become the first woman architect in El Paso and only the second registered one in Texas. Following graduation from high school, Mabel Vanderburg served apprenticeships in both millinery and interior decoration, traditional female pursuits in her day. These two artistic endeavors would serve her well both in helping her husband with his building company and later when she herself began building homes. After courting for five years, Malcolm and Mabel married in 1915. During an Army physical, Malcolm was told he had TB and a doctor recommended that he come to dry West Texas. Malcolm took three years to convalesce, and although he had been a successful merchant in DeKalb, he began building houses in El Paso, an occupation that would keep him outside in the soothing dry air he and Mabel had come to love. Having built houses on a farm he owned, Malcolm began financing homes for El Paso residents and by 1920 began building homes in earnest. From the beginning, Mabel was an active part of Welch Construction Company. She did all the drawings for the houses her husband built, as well as the interior decorating. He built houses on Trowbridge Drive, Pershing Drive, Tularosa Avenue, Hastings Drive – all over Central El Paso – and in the Lower Valley, all of dark brick with white trim and black lines around screen doors. The couple would move into a newly built house until it was sold. In a 1960 interview Mabel said, “For five years we did not occupy the same house over two months at a time. My husband built them and I furnished them.” Three years after their arrival in El Paso, their only child, Elvin Carl, was born in December 1919. Even though Mabel Welch called herself “old fashioned” for believing that “women who have a good economic position should not work,” she herself was not only a wife and mother but a draftswoman and decorator and part owner of a successful company in the 1920s. In 1924, Malcolm’s TB became active again and Mabel had to finish a house under construction. While her husband was in the hospital, Mabel built the home she lived in most of her life at 3131 Wheeling Ave. The house was designed as a duplex, with her tubercular husband living in quarantine in the east side which opened to a porch where he could talk with his building crews. As an adult, his son Elvin recalled the only way he and his dad could communicate while the latter was quarantined was to wave to each other from their respective sides of this uniquely designed house. In a typed autobiography her son recently presented to the El Paso County Historical Society, Mabel Welch noted that at first, the men who worked for her husband refused to work for a woman. So she replaced them and had “no more trouble.” She proceeded to build nine homes in the 3100 block of Wheeling Avenue and a total of 15 on the street in order to be close to her son and husband. During this
Welch also built huge homes on Rim Road for prominent families, including A. B. Poe, J. P. Kemp and F. P. Schuster, whose house was designed not in Spanish style but English Norman, based on ideas the Schusters had collected from various sources during a trip to Europe in 1927 time, Malcolm advised his wife on financial matters, building techniques and methods of dealing with building crews, and she learned every part of the business. In 1927, Malcolm died, and Mabel became the sole owner of the construction business, drawing all the plans, supervising the building, and even keeping the books. At the time of Malcolm’s death, the Welches had a home under construction which had to be completed or Mabel would have lost the $10,000 bond. She needed money to complete construction and also to build other houses nearby, so she went to Sam Young, then president of El Paso National Bank, who lent her the money immediately, despite the fact that widows were poor financial risks in her day. In her autobiography, Mabel said that Young lent her money because he “had never seen me dancing or partying in Juárez.” Mabel had begun building Spanish style homes before her husband’s death. Having discovered Spanish architecture in California while on a vacation, she thought the style complemented El Paso’s culture more than the Eastern red brick bungalow style that was then popular. She showed Malcolm one of her early Spanish houses on 2915 Wheeling Ave. on the way to the hospital for the last time before he died. “It’s very beautiful,” he said. Her second such design was at 2731 Wheeling Ave. and then three elaborate twostory houses followed in Castle Heights below Manhattan Heights. From then on, Mabel Welch would be known for her SpanishMediterranean designs – with wrought iron decoration, red tile roofs, arches, balconies, and courtyards. While many builders went out of business during the Depression, Welch did not. She sold her medium-priced houses as quickly as they were built. In 1934, the Women’s Division of the Chamber of Commerce began an architectural program in El Paso to support the use of Spanish design. Welch herself wrote, “A city with our historical background and geographical location should have an architectural flavor appropriate to, and typical of, our surrounding culture.” In 1935, the city presented her with an official commendation for changing the predominant style of architecture in El Paso from American bungalow to Mediterranean. In 1936, Welch studied architecture and related subjects at the University of Chicago. In 1937, Mabel Welch began studying with George Washington Smith of Santa Barbara, the foremost authority on Spanish Colonial Revival architecture in California and credited for that state’s love affair with the style. She also
studied Spanish architecture in Mexico City and San Antonio. In 1939, the Society of American Registered Architects admitted Mabel Welch, El Paso’s first woman so honored. The first expensive Spanish style home that Welch built was at 3100 Gold Ave. for the Paul Harvey family. With walls two feet thick, as many as five layers of tile on the roof, heavy wooden beams to support the tile and ironwork made to look old, the house caused Welch to hire Mexican artisans to produce many of the Spanish techniques, as American workers did not have the needed skills. Welch writes in her autobiography that she hired a Mexican wood carver to carve the faces of the Harvey children on the ceiling beams of the living room and other decorations throughout the home. Welch also built huge homes on Rim Road for prominent families, including A. B. Poe, J. P. Kemp and F. P. Schuster, whose house was designed not in Spanish style but English Norman, based on ideas the Schusters had collected from various sources during a trip to Europe in 1927. The original recycler, Welch bought marble mantles and stair treads from the old U.S. Courthouse downtown when it was razed and used the marble in the Schuster “castle” in 1939. She was to use other salvaged materials in other houses during her career. In 1943, Welch and several other members of the Women’s Division of the El Paso Chamber of Commerce took a goodwill tour of Chihuahua City, about 220 miles south of El Paso to study the city’s Spanish architecture and the regulations that kept that city so clean and inviting. Welch came back with many ideas to incorporate into her own designs. This goodwill tour also created a bond with Mexico, and it was such a success that the El Paso Chamber invited the Chihuahuan women to visit later that year. Four of Welch’s Spanish designs were chosen for inclusion in Planning Your Home for Better Living by Clarence W. Dunham, Yale engineering professor and Milton D. Thalberg. The house at 3038 Federal Ave. was one of the featured homes in the book used at Yale University for several years as a compilation of outstanding architecture throughout the nation. In 1959, Mabel Welch became a Fellow in the Society of American Registered Architects in recognition of her long and distinguished career. She built more than 800 homes in West Texas, New Mexico and Northern Mexico. Many of those were in Manhattan Heights, a historical district at the base of the Franklin Mountains in Central El Paso. Welch built a number of large homes after World War II on Gold Avenue, Silver Street and Frankfort Avenue. She also became a real estate broker
and bought older homes to remodel and sell. While excelling in her career, Welch raised her son, who became an electrical engineer, and spent much of his life working with the nation’s space and guided missile programs. She was active in the Women’s Division of the Chamber of Commerce for decades, influencing many businesses to build in Mediterranean style downtown, helping to give El Paso a distinctive look. Taking an active role in making El Paso an attractive place to live, Welch established the “Beautify El Paso Association” in 1966 and worked on President Lyndon B. Johnson’s beautification committee. She served her city in many ways including working for the Sun Carnival Association and women’s auxiliaries of Texas Western College (now UTEP), the symphony and Providence Memorial Hospital. She was a member of the National Society of Arts and Letters, the El Paso Museum of Art, the Historical Society and the Humane Society. Welch was always interested in furthering the relations between El Paso and Mexico and was active in the Pan American Round Table and established the Juárez Chamber of Commerce Women’s Department. Texas Governor Coke Stevenson recognized Welch for “renewed efforts toward good neighborly relations with Mexico.” By 1960, Welch recognized that fewer homes were being built in Mediterranean design. Whereas in the 1920s and 1930s, adobe was among the cheapest of building materials, it had become one of the most expensive, along with the red tile roofs her designs featured. Late in life, she gave her vast collection of books on Spanish architecture to the El Paso Public Library. Welch died in December 1981 in California where her son and family lived. She was 91. In fall 2008, the El Paso County Historical Society inducted her into its Hall of Honor. Her son Elvin, retired and living in Yakima, Washington, attended the ceremony. He told Pat Worthington, curator for the Society, that his mother had made him promise to burn all her plans and papers in McKelligon Canyon after her death. Like a good son, Elvin did. What has not been destroyed, however, are all the marvelous Spanish homes in Manhattan Heights and other areas in town that Mabel Welch created for families, a concept that gave her such joy. By Elizabeth Torres, Javier Medina, and Ruth Vise. Source: http://epcc.libguides.com/content.php?pid=309 255&sid=289161
12 Introductions
Meet your board member
The Builders Outlook asked EPAB Board Members some interesting questions There responses were even more interesting!
Sal Masoud
What is the strangest food you have ever eaten? Deep fried cockroaches and Whataburger What in your life is more important than money? My children What makes you feel old? Knowing I am going to be a grandfather in March. Who do you admire as a leader? Saladin If you could have a drink with someone form history who would it be? Genghis Khan What is the best invention during your lifetime? The internet
?
What... Builders Outlook
Leslie Driggers What makes you feel old? Â Paying income taxes.
Person in history I'd like to have a drink with: Mabel Welch. What creeps you out? Appliances that think they're smarter than individual humans. Cause you'd fight for? Human rights in childbirth and parenting, supporting the right to informed consent. First job? Babysitting John Martin's adorable little kids. First paying gig!
2016 issue 1
Mark Winton
If you had 1,000,000 dollars to give away, how would you do it? Build free homes for disabled veterans. What makes you feel young? Looking at all the other builders. What makes you feel old? Starting to go grey at 29. Who do you admire as a leader? Joe Rogan Where are you most likely to be at 8:00 on a Saturday night? At home getting ready to go out with my wife
The El Paso Association of Builders presents
PARADE
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May 28-June 12
Preview Party May 27
Development by: Southwest Land Development Beautiful Homes by: BIC, Palo Verde, Pointe Homes, DR Horton, CTU Metro Homes, Pacifica Homes, Deal 2 Deal, Trinity Homes and Edwards Homes
2016 Issue 1
Association News & Events
13
Builders Outlook
If you have an event or meeting that you would like to share with EPAB members, please submit your information to: margaret1@elpasobuilders.com
&
innovative design
UPCOMING EVENTS FEBRUARY 10 BOARD MEETING 11:00 AM GENERAL MEETING 12 NOON MARRIOTT HOTEL FEBRUARY 24 LUNCH AND LEARN NOON EPAB OFFICE MARCH 11-13 HOME & GARDEN SHOW CONVENTION CENTER
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Connect to the El Paso Association of Builders: www.elpasobuilders.com
ted escobedo
ted@snappypublishing•com talk & text: 915•820•2800 Get Creative. Make it Snappy.
BUILDERS: Are you searching for customers who are searching for a new home?
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14
Builders Outlook
2016 issue 1
Expert Advice
Your step by step guide for personal financial planning
Joe Bernal
Employer Benefits of El Paso
All experts agree that the surest way to have healthy finances your entire life is to create and follow a long-term financial plan. Here’s your step by-step guide to getting yours started. Step 1 — Establish Your Emergency Fund Plan how you will create an emergency fund, where you keep at least six months’ worth of living expenses safe and liquid. This account is not only meant for saving money for rainy days (losses incurred by investments, disability, disaster recovery, unemployment, etc.), but also for planned expenses. Proactively assess what big expenses will come your way in the next few years, such as replacing your old furnace or a down payment for a new home, and save accordingly. Step 2 — Plan to Repay Your Debt Make reducing and eliminating debt your priority — using all available funds to pay off debt. Start with your credit card debt and student loan, and pay them down as quickly as you can. Assess their interest rates and see possible options for reducing those interest rates. Check if loans are taxdeductible and how much you can write off. Step 3 — Take Advantage of Employer matches If your employer offers a 401(k) retirement plan, find out whether your employer offers a matching contribution. Many employers will match up to a certain dollar amount every dollar you contribute. Contribute as much as you can, because whatever you add simply increases because of the employer match. You can contribute up to $18,000 during 2016. Individuals age 50 and over can make an additional $6,000 “catch
up” contribution. Additionally, some 401(k) plans allow you to make Roth contributions. You cannot deduct these contributions from current income, but you will receive any withdrawals you make after retirement free of income taxes. If your employer does not offer this option, you might want to look into opening a Roth IRA. Your tax advisor can help you determine the proper mix of tax-advantaged benefits for your expected post-retirement situation. Although retirement may seem far off, being aggressive with your savings right now will let you enjoy the advantages of interest compounding. Step 4 — Insure Most people think they are appropriately covered with their current insurance policies, only to realize they’re not when tough times or a disaster bulldozes through their life. Create your long-term insurance plan based on the needs of your family, your age and current (and expected) economic situation. Start with the most basic requirements first—health insurance and life insurance, if you have dependents. From there, you can expand your portfolio to include disability income insurance, critical illness insurance, long-term care insurance and even annuities. Step 5 — Saving For Kids You may have already started saving for your childrens’ college tuition. Although starting early is the best plan of action, you can maximize your savings by starting a 529 college savings plan. Some universities have prepaid tuition plans, which allow you to lock in current rates. (Of course, if you do this, your child will have to go to this university!) Families can also minimize college expenses by selecting lower-cost schools or dividing time between military service/community college and university. For a review of your financial situation and assistance in developing your financial plan, please contact us. Employer Benefits of El Paso (915) 542-0900 joe@employeebenefitsep.com www.employeebenefitsofelpaso.com
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Builders Outlook
15
2016
El Paso Disposal
Issue 1
772-7495 6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905 915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038
■ EXECUTIVE OFFICERS
PRESIDENT
Carlos Villalobos
VICE PRESIDENT
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS
(800) 368-5242
Don Rassette
SECRETARY/TREASURER
TEXAS ASSOCIATION OF
Kathy Parry
BUILDERS
(800)252-3625
ASSOCIATES CHAIR John Dorney
ECECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT Ray Adauto
PAST PRESIDENT Edgar Montiel
Membership Retentiion Patrick Tuttle
Finance Committee Kathy Carrillo
Henry Tinajero
■ ADVISORY TO THE BOARD
Jay Kerr, Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr
James Martinez, Law Office of James Martinez
2015 Builder Member Of The Year Edgar Montiel
2015 Associate Of The Year Interceramic Tile
2015 John Shatzman Award
Honorary Life Members Mark Dyer
Wayne Grinnell
Don Henderson Cliff C. Anthes Anna Gill
Brad Roe
Rudy Guel
Robert Najera, Joseph Custom Homes
E H Baeza
Bud Foster, Southwest Land Development Services Walter Lujan, Dawco Home Builders
Mark Winton, Mark Winton Homes, Inc. Jason Cullers, Cullers Homes
Samira Gonzalez, ICON Custom Homes Sal Masoud, DRE Development
Joe Bernal, Employer Benefits Of El Paso Linda Troncoso, TRE & Associates
Bret Thompson, Foxworth Galbraith Lumber Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC Patrick Tuttle, Legacy Real Estate Sam Trimble, Lone Star Title
Luis Rosas, HUB International Gilbert Pedregon, GECU
Gregg Davis, First Light FCU ■ TAB STATE DIRECTORS
Randy Bowling Greg Bowling
Sam Shallenberger ■ NATIONAL DIRECTORS
Bobby Bowling IV.
Demetrio Jimenez
915-208-9313 602-708-7560
Chester Lovelady
Leti Navarrete, Dream Homes/Bella Homes
Edgar Garcia, Bella Vista Cutom Homes
Total Customer Satisfaction
Bradley Roe
Antonio Cervantes, BIC Homes
Leslie Driggers-Hoard, Homes By Design
Residential Specialists Tract Homes • Custom Homes
Palo Verde Homes
■ BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Fernando Torres, CTU Metro Homes
For All Your Electrical Needs
Past Presidents
Committed to Serve
Greg Bowling
Kelly Sorenson Mark Dyer
Mike Santamaria John Cullers
Randy Bowling
Doug Schwartz Robert Baeza
Bobby Bowling, IV Rudy Guel Anna Gil
Bradley Roe
Bob Bowling, III Edmundo Dena
Hershel Stringfield Pat Woods
EPAB Mission Statement: The El Paso Association of Builders is a federated professional organization representing the home building industry, committed to enhancing the quality of life in our community by providing affordable homes of excellence and value. The El Paso Association of Builders is a 501C(6) trade organization. © 2015 Builder’s Outlook is published and distributed for the El Paso Association of Builders by Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing, LLC ted@snappypublishing.com El Paso • Texas • 915-820-2800
Builders Outlook
www.elpasobuilders.com
National, State & Local Building Industry News 2015: Issue 10
2016: Housing Recovery to pick up steam amid challenges
S
teady employment and economic growth, pent-up demand, affordable home prices and attractive mortgage rates will keep the housing market on a gradual upward trend in 2016. However, persistent headwinds related to shortages and availability of lots and labor, along with rising materials prices are impeding a more robust recovery, according to economists who participated in a National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Fall Construction ForecastWebinar. “This recovery is all about jobs,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “If people can get good jobs that pay decent incomes, the housing market will continue to move forward.” The good news, Crowe added, is that total U.S. employment of 142 million is now well above the previous peak of 138 million that occurred in 2008. The one caveat is that job growth has been concentrated heavily in the service sector, which tends to pay lower wages than goods producing jobs. Meanwhile, home equity has nearly doubled since 2011 and now stands at $12.5 trillion. “The single biggest asset in most people’s portfolio is the home they own,” said Crowe. “That’s important because the primary purchasers of new homes are the sellers of existing homes. The more equity
Fall Home and Garden Show attracts thousands The annual Fall Home and Garden show brought thousands of people into the Judson Williams Convention Center as the show kicked off October 9. The throngs of people were greeted by a very nicely presented show compliments of the producer Show Technology out of San Antonio. The show featured a spectacular showcase home by new builder member Metro Homes. The design of the display was made to be partially constructed off site in order to meet the time lines established for the show. “I have to tell you that even with that additional time we really hustled to make sure we had a great product to show,” said Fernando Torres of CTU Metro Homes. Beautiful and elegantly staged the house became the favorite of the show winning Best of Show for the efforts. “We are excited to be able to show off our models to the public and to the real estate agents because we’re new to the market and we think we have a very good product to offer the consumer,” Torres continued.
they have, the more comfortable they feel about purchasing a new home.” And while mortgage interest rates are expected to rise over the near-term, averaging 4.5 percent in 2016 and 5.5 percent in 2017, Crowe said this is not expected to have an impact on the housing recovery. “As the economy gets better, job and wage growth should keep pace. So even though mortgage rates will rise, they will still be low by historical standards and very affordable.”
Supply Headwinds Crowe noted several factors that are hindering a more robust recovery. Citing an NAHB survey of its members, 13 percent of builders reported the cost and availability of labor was a significant problem in 2011 and that concern jumped to 61 percent in 2014. About one-fifth of builders shared the No doubt that the home brought together ideas that really made the showcase home that much more interesting. The process of actually piecing the walls together, setting up the floor and the all that goes on a wall or in the ceiling is not something for the faint hearted. “We were asked by Habitat for Humanity to donate what we could from this build, and I’m proud that we could,” Torres told the Outlook. The rest of the showcase was quickly taken to a lot waiting for some of the frame and other parts that could be used so to not go to waste. Overall a very beautiful green showcase home that will continue to give for years to come. The Fall Home and Garden was the only show of its kind this year since the civic center was taken over for the Men’s Bowling Championship (ABC). The civic center turned into a large bowling alley complete with state of the art lanes. “We run into situations like this when the civic center or halls we use are the only ones that can fit our shows,” said Tommy Mantini of Show Technology. “We have to be flexible but then again I know that this year we would have pent up demand and it showed during this event.” What impressed many was the carpeted aisles and the amount of room to comfortably move around. “I thought this was one of the nicest shows we’ve had in
same concerns regarding lots in 2011 and that ratio shot up to 58 percent in 2014. Concerns over building materials stood at 58 percent among builders in 2014, up from 33 percent in 2011.
some time,” said Associates Chairman Sam Shallenberger. “We had new displays and exhibitors and that was a nice thing to have.” The presenting attraction was the Wall Wizard, Brian Santos who did several demonstrations during the three day event. “I really love coming to El Paso and seeing so many folks for the first time,” Brian told the Outlook. “The El Paso Association of Builders has helped me get other gigs with other associations and I’m grateful for the recommendation,” he continued. Santos, who has authored several “how to” books and is an inventor and innovator for several companies including Home Depot. “My relationship with Rubber Maid and Home Depot and Lowes is really a great thing to
Single-Family Continues to Post Gains Turning to the forecast, NAHB is projecting 719,000 single-family starts in 2015, up 11 percent from the 647,000 units produced last year. Single-family production is projected to increase an additional 27 percent in 2016 to 914,000 units. On the multifamily side, production ran at 354,000 units last year, slightly above the 331,000 level that is considered a normal level of production. Multifamily starts are expected to rise 9 percent to 387,000 units this year and post a modest 3 percent decline to 378,000 units in 2016. Residential remodeling activity is forecasted to increase 6.8 percent in 2015 over last year and rise an additional 6.1 percent in 2016. Continued Page 6
Advertise your business to the home building industry
bring to the consumer because I know what’s hot in the world of walls,” Santos said. Our sincere thanks to CTU Metro Homes and all the suppliers and the staff of David Acosta Real Estate. We also owe a debt of gratitude to the exhibitors who filled the civic center with good products and lots of things for the visitor to see. Our Spring Home and Garden Show is on for March 11-13, 2016. Don’t miss this opportunity to reach potential customers. Visit Show Technology today at www.showtechnology.com to get information on the Spring show. See More Photos Page 8
The Builders Outlook is the official publication of the El Paso Association of Builders. Our award winning monthly newspaper is the only publication to target El Paso home builders and related businesses.
Widely distributed throughout the city and available to readers online, the Builders Outlook is an important advertising medium for any business that want to reach this valuable market.
Call 778-5387 today for more information