WA R & I M P E R I A L I S M the Ukrainian regime, with rolling corruption crises and cabinet dismissals. If or when Zelensky signs a treaty that falls short of restoring 100% of “Ukrainian territory” there will be a fierce reaction from sections of the population who have accepted the scale of casualties and destruction in order to achieve this goal. Who is likely to lead such a struggle? At this point it would likely be the far right in Ukraine which would benefit in this situation. But given the vicious attacks on working people by the Zelensky regime, there is also the potential for the reemergence of the class struggle.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE LOOMS AS UKRAINE WAR ESCALATES TOM CREAN, NEW YORK CITY The horrific war in Ukraine, which began nearly a year ago, is by far the biggest on the European landmass since World War II. Total casualties, both dead and wounded, number in the hundreds of thousands. City after city in Eastern and Southern Ukraine have been reduced to rubble. The effects for the civilian population have been devastating. Of the pre-war population of 40 million, 8 million have fled Ukraine while 5.9 million more are internally displaced. The World Food Program estimates that one in three households in the country is food insecure. International Socialist Alternative opposed Russian imperialism's brutal invasion from the start as well as Putin's attempt to deny Ukraine's right to even exist as a nation. From the beginning, this war has been a battleground for the inter-imperialist conflicts which increasingly dominate our epoch, most immediately between Russian imperialism and NATO, itself a "subplot" in the wider Cold War conflict between U.S. and Chinese imperialism. Not only is the war from over, it is clearly escalating with the possibility of becoming a much wider conflict.
The Character Of The War The Ukraine war cannot be understood outside of the context of the new era of global instability, where inter-imperialist rivalry and conflict is posed in a far sharper way than during the previous era of neoliberal globalization. The inter-imperialist character of the conflict is not its only feature, because it also has the element of a fight against foreign occupation by an invaded people, as well as other features. But to put it bluntly, the motivation, suffering, and struggle of the Ukrainian people has, in agreement with Zelensky, been “hijacked” by Western imperialism for its own ends. The Russian regime has increasingly sought to break out of NATO encroachment and assert itself. both in its own backyard and beyond, as it has done in Syria and now
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in sub-Saharan Africa. Putin and China's Xi Xinping signed a “no limits” partnership right before the war, which emboldened Putin. However, the invasion of Ukraine was a profound blunder by Putin’s regime; Russia massively overestimated their own military capacity. The U.S. in particular has seized the war as an opportunity to reassert itself globally and to strengthen NATO and their broader Cold War bloc, not just against Russia but against China. While it escalates militarily in Ukraine, U.S. imperialism is also waging economic war against China, seeking to cut off its access to high-end semiconductor technology and thereby block its development in high tech. The Biden administration seeks to inflict a defeat on Russia in no small part to send a very clear message to Xi Jinping about Taiwan. The U.S. is now also directly warning China against sending military aid to Russia, saying this would be a “serious problem” for rapidly deteriorating U.S./China relations.
What Comes Next As the war enters a new phase, Western (and especially U.S.) imperialism has decided it needs to go further. A whole series of countries from Poland to the UK and the U.S. have now pledged to send hundreds of tanks to Ukraine on a timescale ranging from a few months to a year or more. But even before the tanks were promised, the U.S. committed to equipping the equivalent of two armored battalions with Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles. There is no immediate prospect of the war coming to an end. Neither side is ready to negotiate. This points to the war dragging on for months if not years with the danger and even likelihood of further escalation. There have of course been many threats by the Putin regime to use nuclear weapons. This remains unlikely for a number of reasons. However, as the past year has amply demonstrated, war, even involving nuclear powers, can escalate massively even while being restricted to the use of “conventional” weapons. The main
What Is The Way Forward?
danger is that the war becomes an ever more direct conflict between NATO and Russia and that it spreads geographically. But the consequences of the continued war go much further. These include the disastrous effect on global food and fertilizer supplies, including the threat of mass starvation in parts of the world. This has already begun in the Horn of Africa. Another year or more of war will also have significant negative consequences for the fragile world economy despite the recent more upbeat projections by the IMF. A defeat for Russia remains the most likely outcome of the war although clearly there is concern in the Zelensky regime and NATO that the Russian military has “not said its last word.” Russia has far more soldiers and a population nearly four times the size of Ukraine. Latest reports indicate that Russia may be preparing to use its still largely intact and potent air force on a wider scale in Ukraine. Military defeat for Russia would almost certainly produce a massive political crisis and possibly lead to the removal of Putin, though in the short term, given the weakness of the Russian left and labor movement, this may lead to an even more dangerous military dictatorship led by nationalist hardliners, not a social revolution. On the other hand, recent reports point to problems with morale in the Ukrainian army due to the conduct of the war by the regime. This has been acknowledged by Zelensky himself. Other reports indicate that there have been significant desertions of soldiers who understandably don't want to be thrown into the “meat grinder” of Bakhmut. There are also signs of increasing tensions within
The course of the war completely confirms that there is no basis for genuine independence for Ukraine on the basis of capitalism. This will require a revolutionary struggle led by the Ukrainian working class against all imperialist forces linked to a workers movement internationally conscious of its tasks. The key missing factor in Ukraine today is an independent working-class force. A working class-led struggle would not just be military but more fundamentally political in character. It would mean the mass mobilization of the population, and the formation of workers councils in workplaces and communities to organize the struggle. A working-class force in Ukraine could potentially have enormous success in launching a direct class appeal to Russian soldiers, hundreds of thousands of whom are conscripts who don't want to be there. Our goal is to end the slaughter and to wage a common struggle against the real enemies of the people, the oligarchs in Kyiv and Moscow, and imperialism in general. Today, the warmongers are in the driver's seat. But this can and will change. In Russia, the left and liberal opposition that came on the streets to oppose the invasion of Ukraine a year ago faces intense repression. But while protest has been suppressed, the massive casualties and forced conscription have created enormous anger and resentment in wide sections of the population far beyond the metropolitan centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg. War poses a unique test for the left and revolutionary left. The bulk of the left, including the far left, has utterly failed this test. The reformist left in the West has lined up behind Western imperialism while many on the “far left” have been apologists for Russian imperialism, as the “lesser evil” or even allegedly “non-imperialist” power. The task facing the labor movement today, and especially its most conscious elements, is to build a mass movement of workers and youth against the war, against all measures of escalation, and against both imperialist camps. J
The total aid of all types committed by the West from January 24, 2022 through January 15, 2023 totalled over 140 billion euros. The U.S. alone has committed 44.3 billion euros ($47.2 billion).
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