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RESEARCH
Our Cross Asset Analysis Suggests a Sell in May and Go Away A review of the S&P500 Index using Management Joint Trust’s methodology and newly developed automated approach. Executive Summary:
Jean-Francois Owczarczak CFTe, MSTA, FRM and CEO of Management Joint Trust SA Jean-François Owczarczak is the CEO of Management Joint Trust SA (MJT), a Geneva based market consultancy firm founded in 1969, which has been publishing on-line charts since the mid 1980s using its envelopes and oscillators methodology (www.mjtsa.com).
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Considering our methodology over our bi-monthly, weekly and daily frequencies, our manual analysis suggests that the S&P500 could retest up into April, perhaps May and may reach marginal new highs. It then retraces back below current levels into the Fall in first instance. On our bi-monthly charts, this top appears quite secular and could weigh on equity markets into 2023.
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Our automated price projections do confirm this scenario, or at least a retest up into April for the S&P500 Index. The cross asset environment we expect using our automated projections on other Key Market Drivers, suggests a possible Growth recovery from March into late April / early May. During this period, Growth may lead US markets in an attempt to retest their highs. Thereafter, from May, inflationary/stagflationary pressures should make a come back leading the S&P500 to top-out again and correct down into the Fall in first instance.
S&P500 Index Weekly chart or the perspective over the next 2 to 4 quarters
Jean-François has 19 years experience in institutional cross asset advisory, holds the CFTe (for which he received the Bronwen Wood Award for the best CFTe II exam paper in the world in 2012) and the FRM Financial Risk Manager certification. MJT’s products were nominated 13 times over the last 7 years in the Technical Analyst Awards and its cross asset research product The Capital Observer won the Best Specialist research category in 2018. Please don’t hesitate to contact Jean-François on support@mjt.ch or through his LinkedIn or Twitter accounts.
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MJT has been editing on-line charts since 1985. These range from long term bimonthly charts to Weekly, Daily, Hourly and intra hour frequencies. They cover circa 5’000 instruments worldwide across all asset classes as well as any relative studies or basket portfolios you may want to analyze. For an initial introduction to our
