FOUR PROFILES OF GUATEMALAN DEPORTEES AND POTENTIAL MIGRANTS
Four Profiles of Guatemalan Deportees and Potential Migrants: The Relationship Between Living Conditions and Guatemalan Deportees
Sophia Piral Fulbright Foreign Student from Guatemala Master of Public Affairs Student, 2nd year University of Missouri December 2020
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FOUR PROFILES OF GUATEMALAN DEPORTEES AND POTENTIAL MIGRANTS
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Abstract The goal of this research is to have a better understanding about four profiles of Guatemalan deportees in order to help policies, projects, and local interventions be designed to improve the living conditions from the municipalities where they return to; as I assumed that those municipalities will potentially continue sending more migrants. It is important to continue researching about the predictors of irregular migration as the number of minor and adult deportees increases year after year, resulting in more people leaving the country in an undocumented condition and putting their lives in high risks year after year —high risks of rape, robbery, authority abuse, violence, sickness, and so much more, with no shelter, money, support, water or food during the journey—. Therefore, I ran several Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions and nested regression models to understand what could be the strongest predictors of Guatemalan deportees from Mexico on their way to the U.S. (first profile), from the U.S. (second profile), adults (third profile), and minors (fourth profile) during 2019 and in which municipalities and departments those predictors are highly represented. I used data from the 2018 National Census of Population and Housing and 2019 Returned Migrants National Reports (deportees only) for this research. Based on the results from the different OLS regression analyses, I can conclude that each profile has its own mix of statistically significant predictors: 1) deportees from Mexico: rurality, Mayan ethnicity, not having water access, and being economically inactive; 2) deportees from the U.S.: rurality, illiteracy, not having a cell phone, not having water access, and being economically inactive; 3) adult deportees (coming from Mexico and the U.S.): rurality, not having a cell phone, not having water access, and being economically inactive; and 4) minor deportees (coming from both countries): rurality, Mayan ethnicity, not having water access, being economically inactive, and adult migration. This research allowed me to make policy and project recommendations at the end of the document to help reduce potential migration. Keywords: deportees; Guatemalan irregular migration; immigration; poverty; Northern Triangle of Central America; undocumented; municipality; equality; departments