Karachi Report

KARACHI

DISCUSSIONS

ON REFUGEES AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LARGEST CITY OF PAKISTAN

University of Illinois Chicago (UIC)

College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs

UPP 508: Global Urbanization and Planning

Fall 2022

Professor

Şevin Yıldız

Team Members

Patrick Hoffmann

Soyeon Jang

Violeta Lialios-Bouwman

Jarod Rhymes

Source : Arfat Jabber

Cover source : Sakina Hassan

What makes

city vulnerable? Effects

What are informal residents facing due to increase population and climate change?

What has governement done to help informal residents deal with increasing population and bulnerability to climate change?

Initiatives

1 INTRODUCTION

The summer of 2022 began the most devastating monsoon season in Pakistan’s recent history. Extreme flooding, heavy rain, and landslides have impacted over 33 million people, leaving 5.5 million people with no access to clean water and over 1,500 dead (UNICEF, 2022; Reuters, 2022). Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan with a population of just over 14.9 million people, is home to a prevalent number of informal settlements who have been disproportionately impacted by the flood.

Resting on the southern corner of Pakistan, northeast of the Arabian Sea, the city is projected by the United Nations (UN) to become one of the ten largest megacities in the near future. (United Nations, 2018). This extreme population growth coupled with more frequent and severe weather events is exposing a deeply embedded lack of infrastructure and resiliency in Karachi’s informal settlements. Community-driven initiatives have become a dominant and positive force in the city, utilizing citizen-science methods such as mapping to prevent evictions due to drain widening, a government technique for reducing urban flooding (Chandra, 2021).

This report presents a review of Karachi’s refugee history, environment, demography, and urban sprawl and identifies 5 major informal settlements that are at the forefront of these interactions: Orangi Town, Machar Colony, Pahar Ganj, Rehri Goth, and Labour Square. The residents of these communities come from diverse backgrounds as a result of forced political migration, rural migrants, and an increasing number of climate refugees. We discuss community actions taken by these informal settlements to protect themselves from vulnerable living conditions caused by climate change and population increase.

Informal Settlements in the Analysis

KARACHI

Source : Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Census-2017 Final Results. Sindh District Table. World Food Programme SDI, Google Maps

HISTORY AND GROWTH OF VULNERABLE COMMUNITES

COLONIZATION PARTITION

What makes Karachi’s growth unique is its history of forced migration and geopolitical crisis. Being located near the mouth of the Indus River, Karachi was a small fishing village in the 18th century. Not until the late 1700’s did the settlement begin to function as a trading port. As the city expanded, the British East India Company captured the city for its geographically advantageous location on the Arabian Sea and naturally protected harbor. Infrastructure improvements followed British annexation in 1842 resulting in a network of railroads connecting Karachi to the hinterland of Pakistan and the adjacent Delhi-Punjab network. Functioning as a thriving seaport as well as airport, Karachi became the economic center for the Sindh region. (Khan, 2022)

As World War II came to a close, rising tension between the British Empire and the colonized region of India resulted in India’s independence in 1947. Two countries were created: Pakistan, separated into east and west, and India. Today, West Pakistan is modern day Pakistan, and East Pakistan is modern day Bangladesh. This division was created to separate the Muslim minority from the Hindu majority as British rule segregated these religious communities through political processes breeding conflict between the once peacefully coexisting groups.

The splitting of India came to be known as the Partition, one of the deadliest and most violent events in Indian and Pakistani history. (Roy, 2021). Estimates of the event vary widely, ranging from two hundred thousand to two million people who lost their lives during the chaotic and forced migration. Approximately 14 to 16 million people were displaced as Muslims moved to Pakistan and Hindus moved to India. (Ansari, 2022)

Figure 1. Early Colonial India

Source : John Berry

PARTITION (CONT.)

The Partition created massive migration and displacement, pushing Karachi towards becoming one of the largest megacities in the world and contributing to the creation of informal settlements around the growing city. By 1951, the city had over doubled in population size, having a growth rate of 9.4 percent year over year. Approximately 900,000 refugees, primarily Urdu speaking Muslims known as the Muhajir, entered the city dividing the property left behind by the 230,000 Hindus who left Karachi.

The imbalance of infrastructure from the population that left compared to the population that entered caused urban densities to skyrocket. Homes designed for single families had to be divided to make room for the sudden growth in population. With the majority of the population leaving Karachi, only 16 percent of the inhabitants at the time were native-born and the region became religiously homogeneous in a once diverse landscape (United Nations, 1988).

INTERNAL MIGRATION

The Partition produced a substantial migration of refugees and many of them found home in Karachi, however, this would not be the last time Karachi saw growth through populations fleeing their homes looking for safety and opportunity. Due to the infrastructural investments during British rule and the connection to longstanding trade routes, Karachi became the main economic driver for Pakistan and from 1947 to 1959 became Pakistan’s capital city. Shortly after, Rawalpindi became capital followed by Islamabad which has remained as the capital ever since. This change in the capital city did not stop Karachi’s growth as industry started to develop around the main ports, further evolving the economy. Although the migration between India and Pakistan eventually stalled over border disputes, Karachi continued to grow.

People who migrated to Pakistan, but not to Karachi, found themselves in an overburdened agriculture sector unable to find sustainable work. With too many workers and not enough land to cultivate, people looked elsewhere for employment and made their way to Karachi (United Nations, 1988). By 1960, Pakistan’s urban population only accounted for around 22 percent of the population. That ratio has continued to climb and presently is around 37 percent (World Bank, 2018).

BANGLADESH INDEPENDENCE AFGHANISTAN INSTABILITY

In 1971, the Bangladeshi liberation war broke out forcing people to flee genocide and relocate primarily in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh, or East Pakistan, was unfairly represented in the national political system and began to protest the 1970 election. Civil unrest stirred over talks of representation resulting in Pakistan carrying out the atrocity known as Operation Searchlight. Pakistani soldiers murdered an estimated 3 million Bangladeshi citizens causing a massive refugee crisis (Boissoneault, 2016). This isolated Bengali people in Pakistan and they became faced with extreme discrimination.

Even today, ethnic Bengali people in Pakistan are not recognized as citizens and no longer have a country to go home to as they are a part of an era when there was more than one Pakistan. Even though many people have been living in Pakistan for over 40 years, they are still fighting for citizenship and legal identification (Maryam, 2021).

It is estimated that over 200,000 Bengali people live in Karachi, however, because of the lack of identification and civil rights given to ethnic Bangladeshi people, it is a difficult population to track (Hashim, 2018). Likely, this estimation is below the actual population count.

Looking on to the 1980’s until the present, the next major population increase came from refugees fleeing the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Roughly 3.7 million Afghans fled to Pakistan, around 600,000 to Karachi (Hasan, 2010). This rapid migration caused substantial growth for Karachi, placing more demand on the already straining infrastructural system.

Currently, Afghan families that have lived in Karachi for decades are facing many of the same problems as the Bengali people. Afghan and Bengali children born in Pakistan are not given citizenship, which creates populations that do not have national identification and therefore very little rights or respect. Presently, there are over 3 million Afghan refugees still in Pakistan.

Repatriation efforts have stalled with continued instability as the United States (US) withdrew all their troops from Afghanistan in 2021, resulting in a Taliban take over and another Afghan refugee crisis. The Chief Executive Officer of Pakistan Society for Human Rights & Prisoners Aid, Mudassar Javed, went on record stating population estimates for Afghan populations could be closer to 3 million in Karachi alone (European Union Agency for Asylum, 2022). While not clear how grossly miscounted refugee populations are in Pakistan, it is clear that migrating refugee populations make up a substantial portion of Karachi’s growth over the past several decades.

LEAPING BRIDGE by Arpita Singh. 2015.

EXISTING CONDITIONS

POPULATION

Pakistan completed a national census in 2017 marking an almost two decade hiatus from demographic data collection. As a politicized process for sub-national level allocation of political seats, funding, and resources, the 2017 census accuracy has been called into question by political officials in Pakistan. A study conducted by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (AAS) evaluated the census process and determined multiple limitations with the sub-national level estimates.

On a whole, the study found the national population to be on par with the 2017 census, however, due to the lack of information on migration and data validity, results were inconclusive on sub-national level accuracy. According to the analysis, the province of Sindh is one of the provinces with lower reported population estimates in comparison to real world observations (Wazir & Goujon, 2019).

While the population estimates for Karachi may have been underrepresented, the city was still estimated to inhabit a little under 15 million people, making it one of the largest cities in the world in 2017 (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2017). Karachi is also very ethnically diverse. The majority of the population at 45 percent are Urdu speaking people followed by 25 percent Pakhtun, 10 percent Punjabis, 10 percent Sindh, and the remaining make up belongs to other migrant populations from Bangladesh, North Africa, and Myanmar (Ahmar, 2018).

Karachi is home to the world’s largest informal settlement, Orangi Town, which houses over 2 million people. Approximately 50 percent of the population living in Karachi reside within informal settlements leaving portions of the population at

high risk for climate related disasters. Similar to the misrepresentation of the census data, geospatial data on the locations of informal settlements in Karachi are remarkably inaccurate.

Despite Orangi Town’s notoriety, the World Bank’s geodatabase apparently containing information on 2017 informal settlements had zero indication of any settlements in the Orangi Town region (World Bank, 2020). This is a common occurrence in cities with informal settlements, as many government’s refuse to acknowledge these people as real and take up space (Samper et al, 2020).

Figure 2. Karachi Population and Projection to 2035

Source : United Nations World Population Prospects 2022

ECONOMY

Today, manufacturing and trade dominate Karachi’s economy, providing the bulk of employment (see Figure X). Growing from a colonial port, Karachi has continued to improve its industrial sector off of the success and prime location of its trading ports. Not until recently has manufacturing started to decline as cheaper Chinese products have entered the market. With a bolstering economy that has accounted for 11 to 20 percent of the country’s GDP year over year, Karachi is a major economic driver for Pakistan. Karachi has also combated its high poverty rate of 23 percent in 2005, lowering it to 9 percent in 2015. While this success should be recognized, it is also important to note the scale at which Karachi is dealing with. Nine percent may not sound like a lot, except in Karachi that is over 1.3 million people. (World Bank Group, 2018).

POLITICS

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which has had a relatively small voting base in Karachi throughout the previous three elections, has been able to control the provincial government due to its domination of the rural Sindh province. Despite being the most populated city in the nation and the principal residence of the majority of Sindh’s political leaders, Karachi’s urban issues frequently have little bearing on the provincial government politically (Siddiqui, 2022). Urban, Urdu-speaking Karachi is consistently put up against rural, Sindhi-speaking Sindh Province.

Source : Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Census-2017 Final Results. Sindh District Table. World Food Programme SDI

Figure 4. Karachi 2017 Population Density

Figure 3. Karachi Economy

Source : World Bank Group, Transforming Karachi into a Livable and Competitive Megacity

Sabir Mazhar/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Climate refugees will be the next major population entering Karachi from rural Pakistan and through its international port. Worsening climate conditions are pushing people away from rural life due to extreme temperature, rising sea level, and heavy rain. Recent flooding in Pakistan has devastated 3.5 million acres of crops, killed 936,000 livestock, destroyed 1.8 million homes, and has temporarily displaced an estimated 7.6 million people (IOM, 2022).

If the severity of the situation continues, climate events will start to permanently displace rural residents. The agriculture sector employs 39% of Pakistanis, so if the sector is unable to adapt to changing climate conditions millions of people will need to turn towards cities for opportunity (World Bank Group & Asian Development, 2021).

Karachi itself is highly vulnerable to the climate crisis. Urban flooding and extreme heat threaten substantial segments of residents, many of whom live within informal settlements. Displaced populations have limited housing options, often needing to turn to informal housing for shelter. As climate change displaces more people, vulnerable populations will migrate to Karachi looking for employment and housing, however they may find more unsustainable living conditions caused by climate change.

Can Karachi’s informal settlements protect a growing, vulnerable population against climate change?

2 ENVIRONMENT

According to the 2021 Global Climate Risk Index (CRI), Pakistan has been ranked as one of the top ten countries most affected by climate change from 2000 to 2019. The World Bank has also identified Karachi as one the planet’s climate hot spots (Bhutto, 2020). Given Karachi’s vulnerability to climate change, climate stresses are predicted to increase due to extreme temperatures, erratic precipitation, and rising sea levels. These imminent climate threats will continue to strain the populations of current and future residents of Karachi creating issues of instability in an already sensitive region.

Source : Sourav

Figure 5 . Global Climate Risk Index Ranking 2000-2019

Source : Germanwatch

WHAT MAKES THE CITY VULNERABLE?

In 2022, Pakistan and India experienced a devastating heatwave and recorded the region’s hottest March since 1901 (CNBC, 2022). Like the heatwave of 2015, the majority of the deaths were concentrated in the Sindh province (World Bank Group & Asian Development Bank, 2021). Matthews et al. (2017) identify Karachi among the most vulnerable cities to increasing extreme heat events. Even under lower emission goals, abnormally high temperature days (which are considered heat waves) are becoming a regular occurrence. Heat waves not only threaten human lives, but they also increase the potential for more extreme and erratic rainfall events, contributing to flooding (Freeman, 2022).

Karachi recently experienced its heaviest rains in almost a century with more than 2.3 inches (60mm) of rainfall, equivalent to an entire months’ worth of rainfall. Thousands of homes and settlements were subsumed and destroyed, with more than 100 people killed (Bhutto, 2020). Monsoons are a common occurrence in Pakistan and the surrounding region, lasting for several months every summer. However, in recent years, climate change has been accelerating its intensity and causing irregular patterns (Saifi & Mogul, 2022). The region has been experiencing back-to-back extreme weather events every year, with more citizens grappling with losing electricity, contracting water-borne diseases, and experiencing food and water shortages.

Figure 6. Average Annual Mean Temperature of Pakistan, 1901-2021

Figure 7. Projected Change in Precipitation Distribution in Pakistan, Multi-model Ensemble

Source : World Bank Group, Climate Change Knowledge Portal

Source : World Bank Group, Climate Change Knowledge Portal

SEA LEVEL RISE

On top of heavy rainfall, Karachi is facing the threat of a rising sea level given its location along the coast. Rising sea levels impact the environment of coastal areas by causing soil erosion, contamination, flooding, degradation of native mangroves forests, and deteriorating coastal ecosystems. Researchers at the University of Sindh in Jamshoro predict that 26,000 square kilometers of land will be lost if the sea level rises by 0.66 meters, and, 33 percent of the coastal land along with its wetland ecology will be lost in the next hundred years if we continue on the same path (Ali, 2022).

POOR INFRASTRUCTURE

The poorly maintained infrastructure in Karachi, primarily drainage systems, make the city even more vulnerable to flooding (Anwar, 2012). Malir and Lyari rivers are the two main basins that contribute to about 80 percent of the local surface runoff. Storm water drains (nalas) also carry water from their catchment areas, as a drainage network. However, the nalas were not designed for intense rainfall and are working at reduced efficiencies due to sewage blockages and encroachments (City District Government Karachi, 2007). The government of Sindh constructed the trunk sewers along the main roads, but sewage continues to flow into the storm water drains. Unfortunately, massive estate development in the hills north of the city are further eroding natural drainage channels causing intensified flooding issues for the people living in the south below them.

Figure 9. Drain clogged with solid waste

Figure 8. Projected Sea Level Rise of Costal Pakistan, 2008-2019

Source : Fahim Siddiqi / White Star

Source : World Bank Group, Climate Change Knowledge Portal

EFFECTS OF FLOODING

Floods impact life in many ways, not only drowning human lives, but leaving people homeless and breeding waterborne illnesses. The citizens of Karachi, particularly those living in informal settlements with insufficient drainage infrastructure, are facing both food and health crises brought on by the unprecedented floods spurred by climate change. Food availability in the region relies on local croplands and livestock which have been negatively impacted due to flooding. During the heavy flooding of 2022, wheat planting and the overall agricultural sector declined, with prices set to increase into the future (S&P Global, 2022).

Risks of waterborne diseases such as cholera and gastroenteritis are increasing due to flooding. The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the surge in diseases has the potential for a ‘second disaster’. Acute diarrhea and suspected malaria has also increased in Sindh province after being hit by the floods (Hassan & Shahzad, 2022). Damaged health facilities due to extreme weather events are worsening the situation and remaining facilities are overwhelmed, leaving people without adequate treatment.

We’re in a very dire situation. There’s no buffer stocks of wheat, there’s no seeds because farmers have lost them

(Palakrishnan, 2022)

The biggest challenge we are facing is because of malaria and gastroenteritis. We don’t have enough protective nets or medical kits to detect malaria. Relief organizations and the government are regularly supplying us with required material but the magnitude of the problem is just so huge

(Amjad Mastoi, 2022)

Source : Worldview Earthdata Nasa.

Figure 10 . Aerial Photo of Sindh, before and after the 2022 Pakistan Floods

Flooding in Karachi has resulted in a substantial loss of life as well as displacing residents from their homes. With climate change worsening every year, dramatic weather events such as heavy rainfall and heat waves will become the new normal. Residents will have to adapt to worsening floods that crumble infrastructure and exacerbate issues such as food security and waterborne diseases.

Infrastructure and the built environment do not have enough time between extreme climate disasters to better prepare for the next leaving communities worse off. Karachi’s government needs to step in and support existing communities, so they can be better prepared for the estimated growth of the future.

Source : Shahzaib Akber / EPA

Figure 11 . Flooded residential area by heavy monsoon in 2020

3 URBAN SPRAWL & SETTLEMENTS

The built-up area of Karachi was a little over 100 square kilometers at the time of the Partition in 1947. The current size of its metropolitan area is now over 3,427 square kilometers. The British land settlements of the 19th century governed land ownership and governance prior to the division. All land belonged to the government of Sindh which had granted sizable land portions to the Karachi Port Trust. The Karachi Port Trust also happens to be one of the largest owners of the land on which many urban colonies of Karachi exist (Hasan, 2015). Population growth due to migration meant that houses occupied originally by wealthy Hindu families were eventually occupied by numerous low-income Muslim families. Oftentimes, additional floors were built into existing house structures and community areas were converted into multi-family homes.

In 1958, the Greater Karachi Resettlement Plan was enacted with consulting from Greek planner, Constantinos A. Doxiadis. The plan was meant to integrate the massive migrant population into satellite towns surrounding the city. The plan revolved around industries and housing that never fully surfaced. A high density, multi-ethnic, and economically diverse city was reduced under the Doxiadis plan to an ultimately low-density sprawl, divided by race and economic class (Hasan, 2015).

Source : Amir Guriro/File

Figure 12 . Photo of Machar Colony

An estimated 80,000 additional housing units are needed in Karachi per year. About 32,000 housing units are provided by the formal sector, while an additional 32,000 are constructed in informal settlements. Most of the unmet demand is represented by poor Karachiites who account for over 75% of the total population (Hasan, 2015). Due to this, informal settlements in Karachi, referred to as Katchi Abadis, have continued to expand across the city. The residential land area in Karachi makes up 36 percent of the total area of the city, and one eighth of this land houses 60 percent of the total population in the Katchis Abadis (Hasan, 2015). Contrastingly, almost 75 percent of the residential area outside of the informal settlements house only 38 percent of the population.

Today, 72 percent of the Katchi Abadis are accepted by the government thanks to the efforts of local residents demanding land titles for their property (OPP, n.d.). However, due a lack of government response to assist with the development of the settlements, issues of sewage disposal, diminishing water supply, and lack of clinics and schools have become rampant problems. The following section gives a brief overview of the largest and most vulnerable informal settlement communities in Karachi, many of which are home to the refugees discussed in Section 1.

Figure 13. Karachi Urban Sprawl, 1946 - 2006

Source : Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi, Yasmeen Anis and Saima Shaikh, Impact of Emerging Geo-Informatics Technologies in City and Regional Planning of Pakistan

SETTLEMENT PROFILES

ORANGI TOWN

Orangi Town is notorious for being the largest slum in the world with a size over 8,00 acres and home to roughly 2.4 million people (this number is likely underestimated due to the lack of census and demographic data collected from within the communities) (Ghandhara, 2016). Orangi Town, unlike other informal settlements, experiences a large amount of sprawl and was originally the place of conflict between the Mohajirs refugees and Pathans in the 1990s (Siddiqi, 2009). The settlement is disproportionately impacted by urban flooding given its low-elevation compared to the rest of Karachi (Independent Digital News and Media, 2020). The residents of Orangi Town have been facing issues of urban flooding due to blocked drainage pipes and a lack of sewage pipelines for years.

The settlement’s large population was initiated by the refugees from the Partition in 1947 and has continued to rise exponentially with Pakistan’s own population. By around 1950, the massive size of the settlements forced the Karachi government to issue refugees with “slips” that provided them permission to live and develop informal settlements on vacant land (Reuters, 2016). More than 20 years later in the 1970s, the Orangi Town settlement was granted partial acceptance by the government and a land titling and upgrading system was initiated, directed towards helping the community-driven upgrades that were already taking place.

We are fed up with stench of wastewater and frequent mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever. So, we have decided to lay a sewerage pipeline in our street on a self-help basis

(Javed. S, community member)

In Orangi Town, housing is not thought of as an issue (Rockefeller Foundation, 2013). People regularly build homes out of locally manufactured concrete blocks and are able to house between eight and 10 people. A thriving informal economy is also present in Orangi Town and many people have micro businesses out of their homes. The real issue is the lack of resilient and clean infrastructure, which creates dangerous situations for residents especially after flooding events. (Saeed, 2016)

PAHAR GANJ (QASBA COLONY)

Located in the hills of the northeastern section of the city, Pahar Ganj is largely home to Pashtun Muslim migrants from northern Pakistan and Christians from Punjab. Pahar Ganj has had drainage channels developed throughout history, but many have fallen into disrepair. Due to this, flooding has become a rampant issue. The former potable water resource for the settlement came from a now dried-up well and residents currently resort to getting water from the adjacent planned neighborhoods (Hasan et al, 2017).

Solid waste disposal is also a significant problem within the settlement. Waste builds up and is picked up irregularly by the Karachi Municipal Corporation (KMC). Piles of solid waste are not only an annoyance for residents but serve as an extreme health hazard. In efforts to mitigate some of the waste disposal responsibilities, city workers often set fire to waste which causes even more health complications and air pollution. During monsoon season, the settlement’s stormwater drain becomes overfilled and floods the streets with wastewater. Despite these challenges, this area of the city is rapidly rising in value and both developers and the city are creating constant pressure on residents to move out, only to be forced into an area that is also failed by the government of Karachi.

Figure 15. Pahar Ganj

Figure 14. Orangi Town

Source : The Oriental Institute

Source : Orangi Town Karachi

REHRI GOTH (QASBA COLONY)

Rehri Goth is a historical fishing village located on Korangi Creek on the southeast section of Karachi on land owned by the Karachi Port Trust. Home to more than 45,000 people, most of whom are Sindhi speakers, it is a mix of migrants and native-born populations. Being located on a body of water, flooding and water pollution create a constant threat. Many of the settlements sit below road level and neighboring villages often dump waste directly into the sea., causing severe pollution in Rehri Goth and causing the fishing economy to deplete over the last several decades.

The infrastructure built by the Karachi government to supply water provides very little to meet the needs of Rehri Goth’s residents, most of whom rely on vendors to get clean, potable water. This lack of drinkable water and poor infrastructure, like in many other settlements in the Sindh Province of Pakistan, led to over 1,200 deaths during the heatwave of 2015.

Due to global warming, it is suggested that “mega-heatwaves” will become increasingly more common in the future (up to 10 times more likely over the next 40 years). Therefore, due to previous events of heat waves in the country as well as in neighboring India claiming hundreds of lives, this current death toll could have been prevented if authorities took serious and timely decisions.

(I.

Masood, National Library of Medicine)

The deaths in the 2015 heatwave were primarily caused by severe dehydration and heatstroke. Within a span of three days, temperatures rose to around 113°F, highs that had not been seen in the region since 1938. (Masood et al, 2015).

Figure 16. Fisherman walking in Rehri Goth

Source : AN Photo

MACHAR COLONY

With over a million inhabitants, most of whom are Bengali or Burmese, Machar is one of the largest urban settlements in Karachi. Situated near Karachi’s West Wharf, Machar covers an area of 4.5 km2 (Hasan et al, 2017). The Karachi Port Trust (KPT) owns the property where the Machar settlement is located. Due to its closeness to the harbor and the port, the settlement started to grow dramatically in the 1960s and migrants were able to find jobs in the fishing business. Today, many of the residences

in the colony have structural problems given that a large portion of the land was created by reclaiming mangroves and wetlands. For the people of Machar, the fear of rising sea levels is omnipresent.

Machar suffers from improper trash disposal, leading to health difficulties for the surrounding population. Hundreds of trucks of garbage are dumped each day. This in turn has filled much of the surrounding valleys with huge piles of trash (Zahidi , 2015). In the past two decades, it is believed that Machar Colony has been raised over 10 feet due to an improper drainage system that leads to massive levels of flooding. Stagnant water and an improper sewage reclamation system are among the community’s largest issues. Most residents have access to utilities like electricity and gas, yet many are left without clean drinking water.

LABOUR SQUARE (LABOR COLONY)

Labour Square was originally established as a lowincome housing project for the residents of Karachi but by 2010, the settlement served as a sanctuary for Pakistani citizens fleeing from flooding in the surrounding Sindh Province (Hasan et al, 2017). What was meant to be a temporary housing situation, soon became permanent housing for hundreds of residents, despite the actions of Karachi’s Labor Department. Due to this, the government has been

reluctant to offer any type of fundamental services or facilities management to the people of Labour Square. This has caused trash to accumulate and illnesses like malaria, typhoid, and hepatitis to proliferate. Several residents died during the 2015 heat wave, much in part because water is not provided by the city, as in the case of many other informal settlements within Karachi.

4 IMPACTS & SOLUTIONS

WHAT ARE INFORMAL RESIDENTS FACING DUE TO INCREASED POPULATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE?

A major hazard posed by climate change in the informal settlements of Karachi is water sanitation issues from drains blocked by garbage, sludge, and the informally constructed homes themselves (Siddiqui, 2022). These back ups are the main cause of urban flooding on top of climate change. Without adequate drainage, water builds up and subsequently destroys submerged homes, moreover, diseases originating in the stagnant water are rampant. The Karachi government has indicated that removing informal settlements would be required in order to widen these drains – more than

100 homes in Manzoor Colony have already been marked for demolition (Reuters, 2021).

To avoid evictions, informal settlement residents are working with non-profit organizations to map the drainage network and identify key obstructions that could be removed and allow the drains to function properly, therefore letting these communities stay put. Given the influx of migrants to the city, evicting people who are already residing in a settlement causes an internal flow of homeless people on top of the incoming migrants.

Source : Urban Resource Centre

Figure 17. Obstructed nala

WHAT HAS THE GOVERNMENT DONE TO HELP INFORMAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE? RESIDENTS DEAL WITH INCREASING POPULATION AND

Karachi’s environmental disaster has been exacerbated by corruption, poor management of the nation’s water resources, lack of essential infrastructure, and inadequate administration which disproportionately impact the poor and middle class. Many buildings that were developed informally are unable to withstand heavy rain and flooding, and new developments are being created in areas that had already been impacted by the floods of 2010 (Kurtzer, 2022). Local governmental institutions have permitted the quick and extensive development of residential neighborhoods, apartment complexes, and commercial structures without consulting the offices and departments responsible for the projects, and without any monitoring of the projects’ environmental impacts or structural integrity.

The lack of contingency plans that the Pakistan and Karachi governments had upon the onslaught of the 2022 monsoon was severely felt. Relief camps struggled to accommodate the fleeing Pakistani residents and there was no comprehensive evacuation plan. Informal settlements struggled severely with flooding and associated diseases. Moreover, after the rains began, Pakistan’s top meteorologist was accused of theft and fired, leaving the region without crucial technical expertise. The estimated damage recovery for Pakistan was estimated to cost close to $30 billion, as Pakistan prepares for the UN Climate Change Conference, COP 27, in November of 2022 (Brohi, 2022).

MANGROVE FORESTS COASTAL RISK REDUCTION

The mangrove forests of the Indus delta are an important coastal risk reduction strategy that protects land from large waves, storm surges, tsunamis, coastal erosion, and sea level rise (Wetlands International and The Nature Conservancy, 2014). They are also a natural carbon sequester and globally account for nearly 15 percent of the global coastal carbon-storage capacity (Time, 2022). The Sindh Forest Department, World Wide Fund for Nature Pakistan (WWF-Pakistan), and collaboration with local non profit organizations have been able to grow the mangroves along the Sindh coastline to over 200,000 hectares, from only 46,000 in the late 20th century (Anadolu Agency, 2022).

In spite of the mangrove’s growth and importance as a climate change and flooding mitigation strategy, the forest’s ecosystem is dependent on a fresh water supply from the River Indus which is increasingly rare in the Karachi city region. Mangrove forests are also highly sensitive to pollution and unsustainable practices coming from urbanization, sanitation issues, and encroachment (Anadolu Agency, 2022). Given the rise in flooding and associated water sanitation issues in Karachi, the implementation of resilient sewage infrastructure is vitally connected to the health of the mangrove forests.

COMMUNITY INITIATIVES

The process of teaching citizens how to contribute towards the betterment of their communities is referred to as citizen or community science. Studies on the urban poor have found that the main forms of resilience to flooding in these communities have been developed through collective action or social capital (Wilhelm, M). Social capital can be improved through external organizations and larger governments supporting citizens on the ground with technology, resources, money, food, and educational opportunities to participate in the creation of solutions that work (Wilhelm, M).

ORANGI PILOT PROJECT

he Orangi Pilot Project (OPP) has led the way for community-driven infrastructure solutions to preventing the devastating impacts of flooding in Orangi Town and other informal settlements across Karachi (Hasan, 2006). Beginning in the 1980s, activists began working on the lack of sanitation and started teaching residents how to invest in and install their own sewage pipelines. OPP has also initiated several programs ranging from womens’ saving schemes to micro-credits for water supply (OPP, n.d.).

Director of OPP Saleem Aleemuddin has stated that since the government receives nearly zero revenue from the informal sector, it pays minimum interest to the developments happening in the settlements (Reuters, 2016). Today, the OPP has helped install sewer pipes in over 90 percent of Orangi Town’s streets, all from a network collaboration by multiple non-government organizations (OPP, n.d.; Reuters, 2016).

The Orangi Pilot Project (OPP) also advises residents on how to design and engineer their informal

settlement homes into high-rise, multi-family units (Hasan, 2006). Structural, plumping, and ventilation are key issues that need to be addressed, especially in a region experiencing environmental impacts such as flooding and extreme heat. Soak pits are porous chambers that allow sewage to absorb into the ground and are regularly used by informal settlements that do not have working toilets (Reuters, 2016).

In 2016, Sultana Javed’s children caught dengue fever after falling into the water of the soak pit and being stung by diseased mosquitoes (Reuters, 2016). This incident sparked outrage in the residents and mobilized them to form a coalition with more than 20 other families to install new sewage systems themselves, by hand. Residents worked directly with the OPP to receive design advice, engineering, and technical support in order to install the sewage system. A plan was initiated that let households share the total cost for the materials, which turned out to be roughly $630 (Reuters, 2016). The labor was performed by the residents themselves.

Source : Hemanshu Kumar

Figure 18. Community Initiative in Karachi

TECHNICAL TRAINING CENTER (TTRC)

The Technical Training Resource Center (TTRC) is a community organization working within the Manzoor Colony to mark, map, and photograph drain blockages. In 2021, the organization’s maps indicated that only around 40 houses needed to be removed to clear the drains, whereas the Karachi government indicated that thousands of homes needed to be demolished (Reuters, 2021). Thanks to this mapping project, more than half of the planned demolitions were halted in the Manzoor Colony. This sparks the question of if the government has other reasons behind wanting to demolish homes other than preventing clogged drains.

Figure 19. Community members mapping flooding

Source : Urban Resource Centre

Source : OUP Pakistan

Source : The John Turner Archive

Figure 21. Underground sewage system that residents installed in Orangi

Figure 20. Orangi Pilot Project

Building community resilience to flood hazards involves understanding the complex local interdependencies between resident social responsibility, physical characteristics of the flood, and the state of the built environment (Millions, 2011). Informal settlements in Karachi are at an increased risk of danger from flooding due to the lack of sewage and sanitation systems in their communities.

On top of the need for better infrastructure and sanitation systems, the need for more housing space is increasing as more flows of people move into Karachi. Arif Hasan, a leading architect in Karachi and a central figure in the OPP, thinks that new approaches to housing are needed. A key solution in his eyes is the local development of informal settlements by the community members themselves. Upgrading, as opposed to redeveloping, gives residents the opportunity to invest in their homes and communities, while simultaneously helping out new residents.

Karachi will also continue to experience new phases of growth and displacement, in large part due to the slow-onset impacts of flooding, drought, sea-level rise, crop yield reductions, and water stress. A report published by ActionAid, Bread for the World, and the Climate Action Network- South Asia (CANSA) estimates that by 2030, close to 600,000 people will be displaced from Pakistan – and without immediate action, this number could reach more than 1 million (Climate Refugees, 2021). This action is already visible in the programs and initiatives coming out of the informal settlements themselves. Coupled with the continued care for the mangrove forests, Karachi has a long but hopeful path to climate resilience.

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LIST OF FIGURES

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Early Colonial India

Karachi Population and Projection to 2035

Karachi Economy

Karachi 2017 Population Density

Global Climate Risk Index Ranking 2000-2019

Average Annual Mean Temperature of Pakistan, 1901-2021

Projected Change in Precipitation Distribution in Pakistan, Multi-model Ensemble

Projected Sea Level Rise of Costal Pakistan, 2008-2019

Drain clogged with solid waste

Aerial Photo of Sindh, before and after flood

Flooded residential area by heavy monsoon in 2020

Photo of Machar Colony

Karachi Urban Sprawl, 1946 - 2006

Orangi Town

Pahar Ganj

Fisherman walking in Rehri Goth

Obstructed Nala

Community Initiative in Karachi

Community members mapping flooding

Orangi Pilot Project

Underground sewage system that residents installed in Orangi

University of Illinois Chicago (UIC)

College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs

UPP 508: Global Urbanization and Planning_ Fall 2022

Professor : Şevin Yıldız

Team Members : Patrick Hoffmann

Soyeon Jang

Violeta Lialios-Bouwman

Jarod Rhymes