EXISTING CONDITIONS

Population

Pakistan completed a national census in 2017 marking an almost two decade hiatus from demographic data collection. As a politicized process for sub-national level allocation of political seats, funding, and resources, the 2017 census accuracy has been called into question by political officials in Pakistan. A study conducted by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (AAS) evaluated the census process and determined multiple limitations with the sub-national level estimates.

On a whole, the study found the national population to be on par with the 2017 census, however, due to the lack of information on migration and data validity, results were inconclusive on sub-national level accuracy. According to the analysis, the province of Sindh is one of the provinces with lower reported population estimates in comparison to real world observations (Wazir & Goujon, 2019).

While the population estimates for Karachi may have been underrepresented, the city was still estimated to inhabit a little under 15 million people, making it one of the largest cities in the world in 2017 (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2017). Karachi is also very ethnically diverse. The majority of the population at 45 percent are Urdu speaking people followed by 25 percent Pakhtun, 10 percent Punjabis, 10 percent Sindh, and the remaining make up belongs to other migrant populations from Bangladesh, North Africa, and Myanmar (Ahmar, 2018).

Karachi is home to the world’s largest informal settlement, Orangi Town, which houses over 2 million people. Approximately 50 percent of the population living in Karachi reside within informal settlements leaving portions of the population at high risk for climate related disasters. Similar to the misrepresentation of the census data, geospatial data on the locations of informal settlements in Karachi are remarkably inaccurate.

Despite Orangi Town’s notoriety, the World Bank’s geodatabase apparently containing information on 2017 informal settlements had zero indication of any settlements in the Orangi Town region (World Bank, 2020). This is a common occurrence in cities with informal settlements, as many government’s refuse to acknowledge these people as real and take up space (Samper et al, 2020).

Economy

Today, manufacturing and trade dominate Karachi’s economy, providing the bulk of employment (see Figure X). Growing from a colonial port, Karachi has continued to improve its industrial sector off of the success and prime location of its trading ports. Not until recently has manufacturing started to decline as cheaper Chinese products have entered the market. With a bolstering economy that has accounted for 11 to 20 percent of the country’s GDP year over year, Karachi is a major economic driver for Pakistan. Karachi has also combated its high poverty rate of 23 percent in 2005, lowering it to 9 percent in 2015. While this success should be recognized, it is also important to note the scale at which Karachi is dealing with. Nine percent may not sound like a lot, except in Karachi that is over 1.3 million people. (World Bank Group, 2018).

Politics

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which has had a relatively small voting base in Karachi throughout the previous three elections, has been able to control the provincial government due to its domination of the rural Sindh province. Despite being the most populated city in the nation and the principal residence of the majority of Sindh’s political leaders, Karachi’s urban issues frequently have little bearing on the provincial government politically (Siddiqui, 2022). Urban, Urdu-speaking Karachi is consistently put up against rural, Sindhi-speaking Sindh Province.

Source : Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Census-2017 Final Results. Sindh District Table. World Food Programme SDI

Climate refugees will be the next major population entering Karachi from rural Pakistan and through its international port. Worsening climate conditions are pushing people away from rural life due to extreme temperature, rising sea level, and heavy rain. Recent flooding in Pakistan has devastated 3.5 million acres of crops, killed 936,000 livestock, destroyed 1.8 million homes, and has temporarily displaced an estimated 7.6 million people (IOM, 2022).

If the severity of the situation continues, climate events will start to permanently displace rural residents. The agriculture sector employs 39% of Pakistanis, so if the sector is unable to adapt to changing climate conditions millions of people will need to turn towards cities for opportunity (World Bank Group & Asian Development, 2021).

Karachi itself is highly vulnerable to the climate crisis. Urban flooding and extreme heat threaten substantial segments of residents, many of whom live within informal settlements. Displaced populations have limited housing options, often needing to turn to informal housing for shelter. As climate change displaces more people, vulnerable populations will migrate to Karachi looking for employment and housing, however they may find more unsustainable living conditions caused by climate change.