Macro Forces and Emerging Trends

For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously researched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result. Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our futures. Our 15th annual Tech Trends Report identifies new opportunities for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business. We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries, including all levels of government. For those in creative fields, you will find a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination.

Our framework organizes nearly 600 trends into 13 clear categories, which are being published as separate reports. Each report includes specific use cases and recommendations for key roles in many organizations: strategy, innovation, R&D, and risk.

Each trend offers six important insights.

1. Years on the List

We track longitudinal tech and science trends. This measurement indicates how long we have followed the trend and its progression.

2. Key Insight

Concise description of this trend that can be easily understood and repeated to others.

6. Action Scale

FTI’s analysis of what action your organization should take. Fields include:

 Watch Closely

Mounting evidence and data, but more maturity is needed. Use this trend to inform your vision, planning, and research.  Informs Strategy

Strong evidence and data. Longer-term uncertainties remain.

This trend should inform your strategic planning.

 Act Now

Ample evidence and data. This trend is already mature and requires action.

3. Examples

Real-world use cases, some of which should be familiar to you.

4. Disruptive Impact

The implications of this trend on your business, government, or society.

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7TH YEAR ON THE LIST

1 Digital Fitness and Training

Tempo uses 3D sensors and AI to analyze form and provide real-time feedback. Credit: Tempo

KEY INSIGHT 2

Digital fitness companies like Peloton experienced 400% to 500% growth in 2020 but that growth has significantly slowed. With rising competition, we will likely see consolidation in the area. Continued investment in the area means rising competition, and we are starting to see some consolidation.

EXAMPLES 3

Digital fitness players are rolling out new offerings with hopes of sustaining pandemic subscription levels. Smart gym company Tonal added live classes that provide real-time feedback and a “social zone” where users can interact with each other. Apple Fitness+ also rolled out SharePlay, which allows users to work out “together” even when miles apart. Peloton and Apple have both expanded into employer programs; both companies inked partnerships with UnitedHealth that gives the insurer’s members access to their apps for free. Investments have also flowed into the sector: Investors put $200 million behind Whoop, which provides biometric-driven personal coaching; $200 million behind Hydrow, a connected rowing company; and $220 million into Tempo, which uses 3D sensors and AI to provide real-time feedback.

6

Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now

DISRUPTIVE IMPACT 4

As the in-home fitness industry scrambles to maintain subscriptions, some companies are tapping employer and insurer wellness programs to offer free access, while others are starting to expand into hospitality, by offering connected equipment in hotels for business travelers. Traditional gyms and fitness centers, meanwhile, will be forced to upgrade equipment and offerings to stay competitive and relevant in the personalized fitness world.

EMERGING PLAYERS

• Peloton • Apple Fitness+ • Tonal • Lululemon’s Mirror • Ergatta • Zwift • Wahoo Fitness • CLMBR • Hydrow • Tempo • NordicTrack Vault

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5. Emerging Players

Individuals, research teams, startups, and other organizations operating in this space. Mature organizations are included when they are producing new contributions.

© 2022 Future Today Institute

Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes

You will find scenarios imagining future worlds as trends evolve and converge. Scenarios offer a fresh perspective on trends and often challenge your deeply held beliefs. They prompt you to consider high-impact, high-uncertainty situations using signals available today.

1. Headline

A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes.

2. Temporal and Emotive Tags

A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, or catastrophic.

3. Narrative

The descriptive elements of our imagined world, including the developments leading us to this point in our future history.

Scenario sources: The Future Today Institute uses a wide array of qualitative and quantitative data to create our scenarios. Some of our typical sources include patent filings, academic preprint servers, archival research, policy briefings, conference papers, data sets, structured interviews with experts, conversations with kids, critical design, and speculative fiction.

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An Offer You Can’t Refuse • Mid-future pessimistic scenario

11 12 13 Health & Medicine

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Subscriber: Julie White Plan ID: 701-9923802-8100257

Date of Service: August 26, 2030

Dear Julie White: On behalf of Amazon Care, I want to thank you for allowing us to serve you during your recent visit. Below is an invoice for the medical services rendered, with a breakdown of your pricing options. The quality of our services depends on our members opting in to share data, but we understand that choice may not fit every situation. The first column indicates the payment requested if you choose to withhold your health data. If, however, you decide to support our efforts to continually learn and improve our services, we offer a special discount, which is reflected in our second pricing option. Please indicate your selection in the member portal within 10 days, and the appropriate payment will be deducted from your Amazon Coin balance. Thank you for being a valued member. We hope we have met your expectations and that you are on a speedy road to recovery.

Description

Price 1 (Data Opt-Out)

Price 2 (Data Opt-In)

Flexible Bioelectronic Bandage $23,000 Smart Thread Sutures $467,000

BioMesh Drug Delivery Tattoo $512,000 Ama-skin Electronic Skin Monitoring—10 days TOTAL

$20 $460

$893,000

$540 Included with Prime Care

$1,895,000 $1,020

© 2022 Future Today Institute