UNMANNED
IAF
Special
Indian armed forces have shown interest in Predator B MQ-9B aircraft
SKY IS NOT THE LIMIT FOR THE UNMANNED FORCE More significantly, the next generation of unmanned systems will fly without human intervention and navigate an obstacle-free course in real-time without prior knowledge of either terrain or environment By Joseph Noronha
Photograph: GA-ASI
Military analysts, artificial intelligence (AI) experts and aviation enthusiasts are likely to keenly follow a unique aerial challenge next year. In July 2021, the United States Air Force (USAF) plans to pit an advanced autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) against a piloted jet fighter. While the precise nature of the contest has not yet been revealed, it could revive memories of other human versus machine clashes like the one between IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer and the then world chess champion Garry Kasparov. Their duel was settled on May 12, 1997, with Deep Blue the victor. Since then, no human being has aspired to beat an AI-endowed supercomputer at chess. Irrespective of the outcome, next year’s airborne competition managed by the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) will mark another major milestone in the inexorable rise of intelligent machines in general and unmanned aircraft in particular. CHINA’S CHALLENGE However, the USAF fears that its Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) that have dominated conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and other regions, may be helpless against stronger adversaries. Even the most advanced General Atomics MQ-9A Reaper
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could be shot out of the skies by the integrated anti-aircraft defences of China or Russia. In fact, unmanned aircraft are turning out to be almost embarrassingly fragile. While 14 UAVs were destroyed mainly in active conflict zones in 2019, this year’s toll is likely to cross 30. And the downed systems belong not just to the US; but to a host of UAV operators. The weapon that accounts for destruction of most of the UAVs, is surface-toair missiles (SAM) sourced mainly from Russia and China. China is itself a leading developer and producer of UAVs and UCAVs of all types, both commercial and military and is in the forefront of unmanned innovation. Chinese military leaders have long seen UAVs as a low-cost, highly effective means to reduce casualties and obtain desired military effects. China has been the world’s leading exporter of UCAVs since early 2019 and it won’t be dethroned from that position in a hurry. China’s cheap yet effective systems are growing in popularity even in traditional Western markets. Two popular UCAVs are the Cai Hong “Rainbow” series made by the Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) and the Wing Loong series manufactured by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG). They have already left their mark on conflicts across West Asia and North Africa.
ISSUE 9 • 2020
29
