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THE STAR Businessweek Disaster preparedness

JUNE 30, 2018

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Flooded Havana streets after hurricane Irma 2017

Puerto Rico’s ordeal by hurricane is not yet over Puerto Rico was pummelled last year by not one hurricane, but two. The second of these, Maria, made landfall on September 20 with winds of 155 miles an hour. Page 3

Caribbean Recovery Lessons learned from the devastating 2017 hurricane season By Catherine Morris, STAR Businessweek Correspondent

Hurricane Irma swept into the Caribbean on September 6, 2017. By the time it made landfall in Cuba, the category-five hurricane had devastated much of the region, particularly the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, British Virgin Islands (BVI), Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barts. Hot on its heels was the equally destructive Maria which formed in the Atlantic just two weeks later. Also a category-five, Maria compounded the destruction in the Leeward Islands and is regarded as the worst natural disaster on record in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Nine months later, the region is rebounding. Many of BVI’s resorts and hotels have re-opened, almost half of Dominica’s total room stock is now back onstream and most of the affected islands are welcoming cruise ships back to their ports. The road to recovery has been a difficult one, however, and the economic aftershocks will be felt for some time. As the 2018 hurricane season gets underway, experts predict between five and nine storms and

say as many as four of these could be major hurricanes. Eager to avoid last year’s devastation, stakeholders are now asking what lessons they can take from the 2017 crisis.

Under-threat ancient sites scanned for virtual reality experience Ancient historical sites that are threatened by natural disaster or conflict can be explored online under a new initiative harnessing the latest laser scanning equipment and virtual reality technology. Page 5

TOURISM DOWNTURN

While the Caribbean hit a tourism milestone last year, welcoming 30 million visitors, the progress and potential of its number one industry was significantly impacted by hurricanes Irma and Maria. According to figures from the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), stay-over visitors fell 1.7 per cent in the second half of 2017 and some hurricaneaffected destinations saw their tourism industry decrease by as much as 18 per cent. Continued on page 8

Plus more FT articles Pages 6 and 9

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5 Essential Steps for Strong Disaster Recovery

By Ed Kennedy, STAR Businessweek Correspondent

The STAR Businessweek BY Christian Wayne – Editor at Large

We’re no strangers to severe weather in the Caribbean. Most of the time we enjoy the sunshine our islands are known for but, once a year, every year, we pause to acknowledge the strength of mother nature and begin readying ourselves for the Atlantic hurricane season. As we know, smart preparation is the key to not only ensuring the well-being of loved ones, but also the well-being of our business and professional concerns in the aftermath of a natural disaster. In this special edition of The STAR Businessweek we’re taking a look at what measures business leaders can take to ensure business continuity beyond just ‘battening down the hatches’. The financial losses caused by natural disasters continue to rise each year, with developing countries experiencing the greatest fiscal impact. Since the wake of the record-breaking 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, however, innovative risk management solutions designed for countries impacted by severe weather volatility, like ours, have begun to emerge. For example, organisations like the United Nations and the World Bank have begun championing rapid insurance-based crisis response products like those that assisted Dominica shortly after Hurricane Maria. But this edition of The STAR Businessweek aims to be forward-looking just as much as we aim to be practical. We have 4 extra pages this week, so feel free to hop around. You may want to begin on page 10 with STAR journalist Claudia Eleibox’s interview with local farmers or with the cutting-edge early warning system hoping to recruit some of the world’s 5bn smartphones to its cause. But who’s to say you won’t start with global real estate firm Savill’s World Research findings and analysis provided by the Financial Times; illustrating the domino effect of natural disasters on our deeply interconnected world economy, starting on page 6? On behalf of our team at STAR Publishing Company Ltd. and on behalf of our readers, I’d like to send a special thank you to the advertisers and businesses who supported this publication. Readers, be sure to enquire about their disaster preparedness solutions by contacting the advertisers directly. Thank you, and remember . . . It’s Nothing Personal. It’s Business.

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hen a disaster strikes or is set to arrive‚ the people of the Caribbean always turn their attention to what is most important. Securing the safety of family‚ helping out friends where they can‚ and looking to do all possible to help the local community withstand the impact‚ or at least begin recovery as soon as possible after it. It’s completely right that these are the core focus. Yet ultimately there are many other steps that can, and should be, taken to anticipate a disaster, and to ensure that the damage of a disaster is minimised. The first priority in such a situation is the preservation of life, as it’s a reality that people’s very survival can be tested by a hurricane. But beyond that, special attention must be paid to livelihood. Ensuring you have a plan in place to withstand the disaster not only frees you to focus on the chief task of personal safety, but also increases the odds you’ll be able to return to normal life sooner, rather than later, once the worst of a natural disaster has passed.

1. Know there is help locally and globally

In generations gone by, withstanding a natural disaster would, by and large, be a local concern. Yes, help would often come from further afield eventually, but it would take time. Time, like all resources in a disaster scenario, is always in short supply. Waiting a mere couple of days may not be a big deal usually but in a post-disaster environment is can be painstaking. That’s why proactively thinking ahead of time about resources available to you near and far is vital. This applies whether it’s exclusively your personal affairs you need to consider, or also those of your business. Ensuring there is an emergency cash flow stored, and that crucially you will be able to access it after a disaster has struck, is essential. Family, friends and business partners overseas can be a great resource to utilise if available to you.

2. Secure property (and then resecure!)

It’s well known that a natural disaster like a hurricane can wreak havoc on a property. That’s why doors and windows are reinforced, loose goods tied down, and sandbags and other supplies brought in to be a buffer. These strategies may help stop the worst of a disaster’s impact but will do little to stop a determined criminal intent on making the most of a terrible situation. That’s why as well as securing property to withstand a disaster, it’s necessary to secure it in a way that deters theft. The exact scope this takes will depend on your property and its security needs. Yet it’s worth remembering that the more security you have, the easier it is to strike a deal with an insurance company for a lower premium. Speaking of insurance . . .

3. Reviewing your insurance plan

Of all the paperwork that it’s crucial to ensure is in order around the time of a natural disaster, your insurance policy is key. It’s no secret that insurance policies have a lot of fine print. Reviewing your agreement regularly is essential to ensure your police is comprehensive in its coverage. It must be kept up to date, as any assets not included in the policy won’t be covered post-disaster.

4. Waste and debris management

Whether your property emerges unscatched or sustains damage from a natural disaster, it’s all but assured the impact of a natural disaster will up-end your surroundings. Trees will fall, debris will scatter, and all of it requires clean up. Depending on the scale of the damage, you may be able to take care of it with some neighbours and a few sets of gloves. But oftentimes professionals will be required. That’s why it’s always a good idea to get in touch with a local waste or debris management business before a hurricane or other natural disaster arrives. That way you’ll be sure to know who to reach out to when need arises.

5. Multiple channels of communication

Each of these steps are separate but share a common theme. All of them rely upon good communication with others in your local community and beyond. That’s why ensuring you maximise your communication capability before a natural disaster arrives is vital. Having two mobile phones on separate networks is a good way to diminish the risk of communication breakdown. Beyond this, having multiple communication apps installed - from WhatsApp and Skype to Facebook Messenger and LinkedIn - is prudent to ensure you can not only communicate across multiple channels, but receive the latest news and updates. Finally, taking time to note where an internet cafe or wi-fi hotspots are ensures you have a back-up place if your personal devices fail.

SUMMARY

Nobody likes the thought of facing down a natural disaster. To many, it delivers a feeling of anguish and anxiety, as a visit to the doctor does. You feel like there is not much in your situation that can really be improved by confronting the uncomfortable scenarios that planning for a natural disaster asks you to do. Yet failing to do so will always make the situation far worse. There’s a big difference between being a post-disaster survivor and being sustainable after a disaster. Failing to prepare and make a plan for dealing with the disaster - both before and after it has occured - can place an extra burden on people of the Caribbean. It can make post-disaster recovery feel like a ‘second wave’ that’s almost as bad as the initial impact. That’s why personal safety should always be pursued alongside a broader plan for livelihood security. Ensuring, wherever possible, remittances have been arranged with family and friends overseas; that your home and/or business is secured to weather the storm and any other threats that may follow on from it; insuring your property so, if the worst does happen, you have a path to recovery. Also making a plan for waste and debris management. Some properties are lucky to emerge from a disaster without a single piece of paint chipped yet more often than now, dealing with debris and damage will be required, and ensuring you’ve a line of communication throughout all this is crucial. It’s true that nobody can have a perfect plan to anticipate everything that could happen in a disaster. But having a plan is always better than none at all. The stronger the plan, the greater the odds for people of the Caribbean to come through a disaster, and recover quickly soon after.

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Puerto Rico’s ordeal by hurricane is not yet over The public health crisis was far worse than official data recognise By FT Correspondent

The aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Catano, Puerto Rico. A recent study says the death toll was at least 4,645, or 73 times the official estimate © AFP

uerto Rico was pummelled last year by not one hurricane, but two. The second of these, Maria, made landfall on September 20 with winds of 155 miles an hour. It was the most powerful storm to strike the island in more than 80 years. At an estimated US$90bn, the cost of the damage was third-highest in the history of tropical cyclones, after Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey. It turns out that the human toll may also have been far higher than official data recognises. Assessing loss of life

in the wake of natural disasters can be a contentious process. According to the deaths register, only 64 people died in Maria’s destructive path. Each fatality attributed to the hurricane had to be verified by a medical examiner in or from San Juan — something that was evidently not practical at the time. According to research led by the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, that figure grossly underestimates reality. Several investigations concluded late last year that 1,000 or more people died directly or indirectly as a result of the hurricane. The more detailed Harvard-led study, published in May 2018 in the New England School of Medicine journal, found the toll to be at least

4,645 in the three months after, or a staggering 73 times the official estimate. The findings were based on a survey of 3,299 households and a comparison with 2016, which showed a 62 per cent increase in mortality year on year. “Interruption of medical care was the primary cause of sustained high mortality rates in the months after the hurricane,” the study found. The US territory is still on its knees, barely emerging from a public health crisis exacerbated by the widespread damage done to the island’s dilapidated electricity grid, hospitals, and communications systems. The Harvard-led study makes the case both for much greater aid — including debt relief —

and also for sustained reforms to assist in the recovery. Puerto Rico was so ravaged partly for legacy reasons — long-term inattention to the frail state of infrastructure. Compounding this were mis-steps in the relief effort, some of which make the blunders of the George W Bush administration in Katrina’s wake look mild. Instead of calling for mutual aid from US public utilities — standard practice after natural disasters — the island’s power authority awarded a $300m reconstruction contract to a little known company, Whitefish Energy, based in Montana. It had two full-time employees at the time. This was later rescinded after controversy over alleged connections between the Whitefish investors and the Trump administration, which denies having any hand in the affair. It took Washington time to waive the anachronistic Jones Act, which requires all shipments from one US port to another to be carried on US-flagged vessels. This slowed and added cost to the delivery of vital supplies. It also took too long for Congress to endorse the necessary funding in Medicaid to support healthcare delivery, something made doubly necessary by the territory’s bankrupt status. The hurricane season started on 1st June. Although it is statistically unlikely that the island will be struck two years in a row, it has happened before. Were it to do so again, it is hard to imagine how Puerto Rico would recover. The economic and financial crisis afflicting the island has already created a steady exodus to the US over two decades. The hurricane spurred 200-300,000 more departures. If recovery efforts are not given the same priority as the US mainland receives after such disasters, the island population will only continue to melt away.

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Under-threat ancient sites scanned for virtual reality experience Google and CyArk unveil 27 sites, including Aztec temples and a Damascus palace By James Pickford, FT Correspondent

Online users of the Bagan project can control their path onscreen or wearing virtual reality headsets to “travel” through the building and zoom in on its colourful murals and architectural elements

ncient historical sites that are threatened by natural disaster or conflict can be explored online under a new initiative harnessing the latest laser scanning equipment and virtual reality technology. Aztec temples in Chichen Itza, cliff dwellings in Mesa Verde and rock art sites in Somaliland are among 27 sites that can be seen as the result of a partnership between Google Arts & Culture, the London cultural arm of the search group, and CyArk, a US not-forprofit group specialising in capturing archaeological data. Ben Kacyra, an expert in 3D laser scanning technology, was prompted to set up CyArk after seeing footage of the Taliban destroying the 1,500-yearold Bamiyan Buddhist statues in Afghanistan. The organisation aims to record sites threatened by conflict, natural disasters, pollution or human development and has documented hundreds of locations since its foundation in 2003. Google has taken CyArk’s data, gathered by handheld or tripodmounted laser scanner or drones, and presented it in a three-dimensional format alongside commentary from historians and links to explanatory articles and commissioned videos. The project selected one site — an ancient Buddhist temple complex in Bagan — as the subject of an experiment designed to test the limits of what could be done with 3D data on computers, mobile phones and virtual reality headsets. CyArk had visited the temple complex

A 3D image of Aztec temple Teotihuacan in Mexico © CyArk

CyArk gathers data through handheld laser scanners and drones

The spectacular courtyard of the Al Azem Palace in Damascus © CyArk

before a devastating earthquake in 2016. Returning after the disaster, it was able to show the precise extent of the damage sustained to the buildings, constructed between the ninth and 13th centuries on the banks of the Irrawaddy river. Online users of the Bagan project can control their path on-screen or wearing virtual reality headsets to “travel” through the building and zoom in on its colourful murals and architectural elements. Chance Coughenour, programme manager at Google Arts & Culture, said: “No one can physically enter this building right now because it’s at risk of collapse.” Researchers have also captured images of the Al Azem Palace in Damascus, Syria, with its 18th century Ottoman era courtyard; the temple of Echmoun in Lebanon, built in the seventh century BCE; and Roman ruins of Stabiae, near Pompeii, where excavations have uncovered more remains than can be protected from the elements. Elizabeth Lee, CyArk vice-president of programmes and development, said its data were already being used by specialist academics and architectural historians but the group hoped the initiative would broaden access to teachers and the general public. She added there was “a huge need” for CyArk to reach sites it had not yet recorded. Two places the organisation is considering are Iraq — off limits during successive conflicts — and Libya, which contains sites of enormous historical importance such as Leptis Magna, built during the Roman era. CyArk’s data are available via Google on request to anyone who fills out an online form, as long as it is for noncommercial uses. “There’s a little bit of trust,” said Ms Lee. “We’re opening it up in good faith — the majority of users will respect that.”

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Risky business: when will the threat of natural disaster hit property prices? Some of the most expensive cities are high-risk, but the economics of housing there still stack up — for now By Nathan Brooker, FT Correspondent

n September 1938 a storm hit New York that, meteorologically speaking, was nothing to write home about. By landfall, it had been downgraded to a category-three cyclone. That’s neither particularly strong nor rare — six storms of at least that intensity have been recorded in the Atlantic basin so far this year. And yet, the storm, nicknamed the Long Island Express because it bore down on New York harbour at astonishing speed, remains the deadliest storm ever to hit that part of the US. It killed at least 682 and cost, in today’s money, US$5.1bn. Were it to land tomorrow, the damage would cost at least 100 times that amount. “The problem then and the problem now isn’t the wind damage; it’s the storm surge,” says Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at UCL. “A surge of 12ft would flood much of Lower Manhattan. That’s where some of the world’s most expensive property is; it’s where Wall Street is.” A category-three storm would probably close the stock exchange, he says — Hurricane Sandy did, and that was downgraded to a category-one storm. The subway system would flood, people wouldn’t be able to get to work; there would be major power losses, he says, because the US grid is ill-equipped to deal with it. “Shutting all that down, even for a relatively short period of time: the costs would run into the hundreds of billions,” he says. “Easily.” In the real world, the US is still reeling from the impact of three category-four storms that have battered the country: Harvey, Irma and Maria — aside from the human toll, the combined financial damage has been estimated as high as half a trillion dollars, says McGuire. Flooding has severely affected trophy home

locations such as Key West, the Caribbean and Miami; and wild fires have ravaged wide areas of California’s Napa Valley — AccuWeather estimates the cost of those fires could exceed $85bn. According to David Alexander, professor of risk and disaster reduction at UCL, the cost of natural disasters is getting worse not only because storms are more frequent or more powerful — though it’s very likely that they are, thanks to climate change and rising sea levels in particular — but because of the increasingly complex domino effects that disasters can trigger. “We are entering the age of the cascading disaster,” he says. The example he gives is of the Japanese earthquake of 2011. The earthquake itself killed only about 100 people, he says, but it caused a tsunami that killed 18,000. When the wave hit the Fukushima nuclear plant it disabled the emergency generators, which led to the meltdown of three reactors. “At this stage, it’s hard to tell whether the tsunami or the nuclear release was the bigger disaster,” he says. “It certainly wasn’t the earthquake.” The long-tail of effects on Japan, its energy proficiency, infrastructure, economy, jobs and house prices is still being felt. In October, a court ordered Tokyo Electric Power Company to pay ¥670m to compensate a golf course near the plant for lost revenues. “We’re much better today at measuring the indirect costs of natural disasters,” says Alexander. “If you can’t put your [bank] card into the slot and pull out your money, that’s an effect and someone will be measuring it.” Savills’ new Impacts report details the risks natural disasters can pose to international property markets, and in some cases, the costs can appear profound. Taipei — which Savills estimates to have a collective housing wealth of about

Disaster preparedness

$200bn — is vulnerable to wind storms, earthquakes and flooding. According to Lloyd’s City Risk Index, 34 per cent of Taipei’s projected annual GDP is at risk, making it the world’s most exposed city. “What’s most intriguing,” says Yolande Barnes, head of Savills World Research, “is that the really big cities continue to grow and thrive in risky places, and that’s because their economic advantages outweigh the risks.” In Los Angeles, housing demand has never been greater. The population has grown by 2.2 per cent in the past five years and, over the same period, according to Savills, the price of a square foot of real estate has grown 65 per cent. In September, the median price of a single-family home in the city had risen to a record-breaking $575,000, according to data and analytics company Corelogic. And this is despite the fact that, according to Lloyd’s, Los Angeles is the most exposed city to natural disasters in the US. Aside from its estimated housing wealth of $2.6tn, some $46.5bn of the city’s GDP is at threat from earthquakes, flooding, drought and the rest. “Los Angeles is subject to — and has suffered — catastrophic earthquakes in relatively recent memory,” says Barnes, “but it’s a huge success story. It brings in people from all over the world [who] are drawn there by the thriving economy and a wide variety of prosperous industries including entertainment, creative and tech.” In earthquake-prone Tokyo, the property market operates in a different way to most other developed countries and is more closely connected to the risk of natural disasters, says Barnes. Homes in Japan devalue by about 2 per cent a year, and will usually be rebuilt or renovated after 30 years with updated anti-seismic technology. “So in Tokyo you have an explicit distinction between land value — which is key — and building value,” she says. In the past, earthquake risk has promoted the use of lightweight materials such as wood and paper. “Even without a catastrophic earthquake, there is the expectation that you need to replace buildings after about 35 years because those materials deteriorate — that’s become ingrained in practice.” The threat of natural disasters — and a tax regime that incentivises people to sell relatives’ homes when they die rather than inherit them — has helped shape people’s attitude to property, says architect Takeshi Hayatsu. “It’s not that people don’t feel an emotional attachment to old houses, they do;

but people in Japan like new things. In Japan, new is best.” The UK is not free from the risk of natural disasters. London is built on a floodplain, but thanks to the Thames Barrier — which limits flooding and storm surge — most of its $3.1tn housing wealth and £600bn annual projected GDP is relatively protected. The same cannot be said of other parts of the UK. In 2007, severe flooding in parts of Yorkshire, the Midlands and the west of England caused insurers to shell out more than £3bn in claims. “I don’t think the concept of the cascading disaster has really hit the insurance markets yet,” says Alexander. “The insurance markets seem to have simply been thinking in terms of the usual linear relationship: hazard strikes vulnerability equals impact — which is how we’ve thought about these things for 100 years — but the fact is many of the implications of cascading disasters are simply not known.” In the wake of Harvey, Irma and Maria, reinsurance company Munich Re warned shareholders that payouts from the storms would result in a third-quarter loss and could cause it to miss its profit targets for the year. The US’s National Flood Program, a government-run insurer, has been in the red since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It has come under fire as stories about repeated payouts of

at-risk properties have come to light. For example, a house on the banks of the San Jacinto river in Texas has flooded 22 times since 1979 — and cost the insurance programme $1.8m over that time, despite it being worth about $700,000. Property owners have become used to offloading risk to insurers, says Barnes, but that may have to change. “The insurance market we have now is arguably a product of the six decades of growth we’ve seen in capital values — people have come to expect growth from property. But buildings cost money to own and maintain, which that value appreciation had tended to hide.” As property markets around the world enter a period of low capital growth — home values in London are down 0.6 per cent year-on-year, in New York they’re down 2 per cent — insurers are going to have to confront that hitherto hidden depreciation. Property buyers, she says, will also have to pay more attention as they move from flipping homes to maximising yields. “I think people have been optimistic about risk,” says Barnes, “but the mentality of property owners in the future could become far more risk-averse than they are today because if you’re looking at an income stream, rather than yearon-year capital growth, you’re going to need to pay more attention to natural and man-made

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risks.” The other outcome, of course, is that buyers will move away from major cities and concentrate on riskier, higher-yield markets or abandon property altogether. Last year, the gross rental yield on a London home averaged 3.5 per cent, according to Deutsche Bank. In Manhattan, it was 2.5 per cent, according to StreetEasy — numbers hardly likely to excite. “I think rather than investors changing behaviour, you’ll get different ones,” says Neal Hudson of Residential Analysts. So speculative buyers, who were prepared to accept low yields because they were seeing high capital growth, will disappear and in will come longer-term money looking for sensible yielding assets. In fact, says Hudson, it may already be happening in London’s high-priced, low-yield new homes market, where developers — unable to find buyers — are cutting prices and offering their stock to corporate landlords. For some — financially speaking at least — the storm has already hit.

Map by Liz Faunce. Follow Nathan Brooker on Twitter @ncbrooker

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Caribbean Recovery Lessons learned from the devastating 2017 hurricane season Continued from page 1

Growth was impeded across the whole region, even on those islands which were fortunate enough to be out of the path of the storms. One of the key issues arising from the hurricanes and their aftermath was the faulty perception that the entire Caribbean region was closed for business. The unity of the Caribbean brand did not work in the region’s favour as travel agents, international media and potential visitors assumed the destruction was common to all destinations. Now island tourism boards are realising that educating the world about the region’s unique geography must be a vital component of future marketing efforts. Delivering the CTO’s annual report earlier this year, CTO Secretary General Hugh Riley said: “Reinforcing the value and the attributes of the Caribbean brand, educating the public and the travel industry on the geography of the Caribbean, and generating demand for the region’s tourism product will take time, careful strategy, and money.” Money is often the sticking point in recovery efforts but here, too, there are lessons to be learned. Of primary importance is the need for the region to come together and give whatever financial assistance it can. Shortly after the storms struck, the CTO established the Caribbean Relief Fund which, to date, has raised around US$135,000. Many of the donors were local, with Belize Tourism Board raising over US$59,000. Similar funds were created by Invest Caribbean Now and CARICOM. In Saint Lucia, the Chamber of Commerce and National Emergency Management Organization assisted with supplies and funds. As welcome as they are, charitable donations and public sector funds cannot possibly finance all the recovery and reconstruction efforts needed after a natural disaster on the scale of Irma and Maria. Engaging the private sector has also

proved crucial in getting the tourism industry back on its feet. In a recent report, the World Tourism and Travel Council suggests that governments incentivise the private sector to help speed recovery efforts, increasing access to capital for SMEs so they can be a part of the solution and easing entry and work permit restrictions for specialised services.

INFRASTRUCTURE WOES

While rebuilding tourism infrastructure is vital to recouping business, it cannot be done without first repairing vital networks, ensuring that tourists and citizens alike have access to basic services as quickly as possible. Irma and Maria wiped out an estimated 70-90 per cent of infrastructure on affected islands, according to the United Nations. A category-five hurricane can decimate a country, tearing apart homes, destroying buildings and washing away roads. Storms take their toll on telecommunications networks which can severely hamper the work of emergency teams. Earlier this month Saint Lucia hosted a 3-day Caribbean Building Standards Forum and Exhibition at which regional and international technical experts came together to discuss building codes, construction products and services, and technologies that can enhance the integrity of structures vulnerable to natural disasters. The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) is also doing its part to encourage a regional approach to infrastructure needs and has unlocked US$104m in loans and grants for the hurricane-stricken nations to help them “build it back better”. For Caribbean entrepreneur Lauren Thomas one of the key lessons to come out of Irma and Maria was the need for public and private sector co-ordination. Thomas, who witnessed “complete devastation” from her home in the US Virgin Islands, saw a disconnect between suppliers and providers in the

HURRICANE Tips BEFORE THE STORM

Contact LUCELEC before trimming or cutting down trees that are near overhead electricity lines. Watch out for power lines before you begin working on a ladder. Be sure that ladders or scaffolds are far enough away so that you, and the ends of the tools you’re using, don’t come within 10 feet of power lines. And never use any electrical appliance in wet surroundings outdoors or in the rain. Have flashlights, battery-powered radios and extra fresh batteries available. Severe weather may result in power outages as a result of damaged infrastructure or in the event that the power system is shut down for safety reasons.

DURING THE STORM

During severe weather, if your roof or windows leak, water in your wallsand ceiling may come into contact with electrical wiring. Immediately turn off your main switch followed by circuit breakers. Disconnect all electrical appliances that are still plugged in, and turn off all wall switches. Remember, never stand in water while operating switches or unplugging any electrical device. Turn off your electricity at the main switch if you have to evacuate, if you expect flood water to approach your home, or if your home is flooded. In a thunderstorm, unplug all electrical appliances and equipment. It is not sufficient to just switch them off. Lightning can produce high voltages on electrical networks, which can damage equipment.

wake of the storms. To remedy this, she established InCarib, the region’s first online directory of Caribbean infrastructure suppliers which is due to launch at the end of August. Using InCarib, governments and regional development agencies can browse an online database to find providers in a range of industries from building supplies and water management to the energy sector. “We cannot just walk across borders to help each other,” she says. “There needs to be more systems in place. One of the best things that came out of the hurricane season is that the Caribbean as a whole realised that there needs to be more collaboration. We are separate, but it is very important we work together as a region to handle these types of situations. “Conversations in the Caribbean are headed in the right direction. People are becoming more proactive this year and it is all revolving around building back better.”

A NEW NORMAL

Every year, the environmental challenges escalate. While the link between hurricanes and climate change is uncertain, the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions predicts that rising sea levels and warmer temperatures will intensify the impacts of extreme weather events such as Irma and Maria. As the threat grows, so too must the response if the Caribbean is going to sustain economic growth. As Prime Minister Chastanet told the United Nations General Assembly in September: “What is fast becoming the ‘new normal’ is the intensification of extreme weather events, which demands from us real solutions in real time. No longer can we depend on old mechanisms with dense bureaucracies that delay or limit a nation’s ability to safeguard its citizens during a crisis and slow the rebuilding effort.”

AFTER THE STORM

During or immediately after a storm, don’t venture out in the dark because you may not see downed power lines that could be energized and dangerous. Stay away from low-hanging or downed power lines. Treat all downed power lines as if they are energized. If your building was flooded and water rose above the electrical outlets, contact a licensed electrician before turning on the main circuit breaker. Any appliances or equipment that may have been submerged will need to be thoroughly dried and checked by a qualified repair person prior to being turned on. If someone has touched a fallen power line, stay away unless you have been trained to deal with the situation safely. Call emergency services as unskilled efforts to rescue the victim could be fatal. If a live power line hits your car, stay inside. It is the safest place. If you must leave, jump clear of the car without touching the car’s body and the ground at the same time. Report outages, any low-hanging or downed power lines by calling LUCELEC’s Trouble Call Department. Residents in the North should call 452-2165, and those in the South should call 454-6617. Please provide your name, telephone number and precise address, as well as the location of the fault. If the electricity pole nearest you has a number on it, please provide that number as well. After power is restored switch on appliances one at a time. This causes less stress to the power system and ensures that all customers get restored without unnecessary delays.

P.O. Box 230 Castries St. Lucia, W1 T: 758 457 4400 F: 758 457 4409 E: lucelec@candw.lc W: www.lucelec.com

Disaster preparedness

JUNE 30, 2018

www.stluciastar.com

Mobile phones and AI vie to update early disaster warning systems Networks of sensors can predict earthquakes with greater precision

By Nic Fildes, FT Correspondent (telecoms)

Alert service: Mobile phones can help predict earthquakes © AFP

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atural disasters caused havoc in 2017. The United Nations calculates that earthquakes, floods and landslides affected 445m people and killed 8,000. The estimated economic impact was almost US$139bn. The world’s nearly 5bn mobile phone users, however, are being drafted in to help — both in the aftermath of a disaster and to provide an early warning system. One of the first things that people want to do after disaster strikes is make contact with emergency services and loved ones. Several mobile operators are formalising their role at these times of stress. For example Telefónica, which operates in countries like Chile which have a high earthquake risk, has teamed up with Facebook to embed the social network’s “safety check” into its artificial intelligence platform Aura so that they can more easily let friends and family know that they are safe. Tigo El Salvador, a leading mobile phone operator, introduced a “zero rate” — where data for emergency communications do not count toward a customer’s bill — after an earthquake last June. In the Philippines, an area at high risk of tsunamis, mobile phone operator Smart sent out 10m texts and alerts to customers while its rival Globe delivered 250m free messages last year. Now mobile phones can be harnessed to predict natural disasters as well as tackle their aftermath. Battalgazi Yildirim worked as a post-doctoral research fellow in the geophysics department at Stanford University before setting up Zizmos, a mobile phonebased earthquake detection system. This start-up product, launched in 2015, offers a cheaper alternative to conventional detection and warning systems. Japan’s Earthquake Early Warning System, for example, cost $1bn over the course of 15 years, but is based on a limited number of sensors. Zizmos hopes to establish a network of millions of low-cost sensors in urban environments to create a cloud-based detection system via the smartphone. Its eQuake app uses the smartphone’s accelerometer, which measures the tilting motion, and compass, in order to crowdsource data when tremors occur. The data are transmitted back to the cloud where Zizmos systems monitor whether a quake is imminent and alert users to find a safe place. The app received a $1m grant from Verizon and has been downloaded more than 100,000 times so far. Yet phone-based systems have their limitations. The Zizmos app works only when the phone is connected to WiFi and stationary, sitting for example on a coffee table rather than in someone’s pocket. To

extend its reach, Zizmos is also developing an internet of things module that can be installed in homes to act as “backbone” for the seismic network. Ultimately a global earthquake early warning system could be established overnight, says Mr Yildirim, if smartphone makers embedded the technology directly into handsets, rather than relying on people to download an app. With millions more mobile handsets automatically sending tremor data, the accuracy of the system would increase. “We strongly believe that the smartphonebased application is a very elegant solution, We also believe that it will [only be] a viable solution if one of largest phone manufacturers such as Samsung, Apple, Huawei or Google who has control on the Android operating systems [gets] behind it,” he says. The satellite industry, too, is looking at doing more to predict earthquakes and tsunamis. The industry is preparing for “big leaps forward in sophistication” according to Paul Gudonis, head of enterprise at Inmarsat, the UK satellite communications company. This could include better earth observation images and networks of sensors installed in remote locations transmitting data via satellite to scientists. Many countries most at risk “don’t have large pots of money” for advanced satellite links, says Mr Gudonis, but “necessity is the mother of innovation”. One example is sensors placed on fishing buoys that can monitor and predict swells in the water that could signal a tsunami. The sensors communicate the data via satellites as they are too remote to be covered by traditional telecoms networks. Adding machine learning to the equation could take prediction to the next level. An academic paper published in the journal Science Advances in February argues that artificial intelligence could help build a sophisticated catalogue of seismic activity. The authors argue that AI can be used to better identify tremors and distinguish them from normal geological noise. The method is similar to the way digital personal assistants, like Amazon’s Alexa, can isolate human voices from background noise in the home. An AI system was tested in Oklahoma, which saw a huge spike in seismic activity three years ago. The ConvNetQuake neural network the academics developed detected 17 times more earthquakes than the Oklahoma Geological Survey, which used traditional earthquake monitoring methods. The paper concluded that an AI approach would be ideal for places with high levels of continuous seismic activity, such as volcanoes, and areas at the boundaries of tectonic plates, whether Japan or the San Andreas Fault system in California.

Disaster preparedness

JUNE 30, 2018

www.stluciastar.com

Can Farmers Defend themselves against Hurricanes? By Claudia Eleibox, STAR Businessweek Correspondent

building sheds and pens that can withstand hurricane winds and rainfall—though some farmers find it may be too expensive for animals and plants—are necessary investments in the long run. Farmers in the Caribbean are also constantly encouraged in the agricultural practice of record-keeping, an important procedure to manage international trade standards and to qualify farmers for governmental compensation after a natural disaster.

here’s no way to cypher which island will take the hit each time but the Caribbean archipelago is the most likely region to be affected by the Atlantic hurricane season, and whilst there are other natural disasters that the Caribbean is prone to—earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, fires etc.—hurricanes are what we know best. There can be no limit to the measures taken to preserve human life at that time but for farmers and other agricultural workers, just like any other business owner, there’s a bit more at stake. The inevitable pitfall is that farmers rely solely on

TRY TO INSURE natural resources and weather conditions. How does one save Mother Nature from herself?

START BY INVESTING RIGHT

Although still unguaranteed, this is the most important preparation method that farmers can take. Most banks and credit unions in the Caribbean provide incentives for agricultural loans. Farmers should take advantage of the low interest rates and grace periods to build stable farm facilities and structures. Today, some farmers still respond to hurricanes by taking minimal measures. However, proper drainage systems from the get go and routinely

Realistically, crop insurance is fairly new but it’s a drop in the bucket. No matter the real value of property, farmers only get about 40% of their average crop sale over a specified time period. In other cases, only harvested crops are insurable, and not the other acres of investment on the field. There are a few other options, and saving is hardly one, especially for farmers in the Caribbean who only make enough profits to maintain their farm and family. Accumulating enough money in time to help the business recover after a hurricane is almost impossible. But if a farmer is able, it’s his most secure gamble.

Getting a livelihood protection policy, or something similar, is the next best thing in the Caribbean. Some farmers in Saint Lucia are leaning more to this alternative. However, payouts from this policy depend only on specified wind speed and rainfall ranges outside of which famers don’t get compensation. It’s important for farmers to form groups that are able to pressure governments to create disaster relief funds similar to those for tourism sectors in the Caribbean, or for members to create a pool fund for disastrous events.

SUMMARY

It’s equally difficult and unpredictable to work in the agricultural industry as it is to prepare for a hurricane and it’s obvious in the Caribbean that the latter heavily contributes to the former. The unfortunate actuality for farmers is that they are the only ones who suffer a total wipeout. Governments are able to source food elsewhere and the country moves on whilst recuperating. It’s only the farmer who has to restart his business from the ground and, by the time that happens, another hurricane season is upon him.

For more products to make your home safer & stronger and more storm resilient, contact us at: Renwick & Company Ltd Vide Boutielle, Castries Tel:(758) 455 8000 Email: contact@renwickslu.com Facebook.com/renwick-company-ltd

Disaster preparedness

JUNE 30, 2018

www.stluciastar.com

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Disaster preparedness

JUNE 30, 2018

www.stluciastar.com

Karlis Noel responds to community concerns with innovation!

By Keryn Nelson, STAR Businessweek Correspondent

completed. When finished it will be tested for a few weeks before being shipped to Nauru.

ystems Engineer Karlis Noel has been making waves as of recent with his revolutionary eco-friendly equipment. Noel successfully developed a mobile desalination system with Zero Brine discharge—a first-of-its-kind invention with the ability to turn seawater into potable water. Noel is bringing his vision to the world through his company, KC Safaris. Luckily, we were able to catch up with the Systems Engineer for this special issue of The STAR Businessweek.

DO you see your product changing ATTITUDES on energy and sufficiency?

Noel: Well, I hope that people will see alternative energy sources as viable and efficient methods for carrying out tasks that would normally consume large amounts of conventional energy. That would certainly help. Also, with the current desalination technology developed, I hope to alleviate the stress of worrying about finding a source of potable water in the event of a disaster. Instead of having tons of water shipped, we will actually be able to produce it ourselves.

What inspired you to create this WATER system?

Noel: Growing up in Laborie, we would always have the water cut during rainy days. Things like bathing, flushing the toilet and doing the laundry became difficult. Now if a little rainy day could cause so much trouble, imagine what a hurricane could do to us. The most logical remedy to our water dilemma was to find a way to take advantage of the large body of water right in front of us, the sea, through desalination. Post-disaster, there is always no water.

Noel’s invention could prove particularly valuable in the aftermath of hurricanes and other natural disasters

They’re full of questions and eager to taste the water produced!

did you feel discouraged At any point? What impact have you Noel: Initially, when I raised the topic of noticed In communitieS wHERE KC Safaris operates? desalination. people showed little to no interest. Noel: There has been great interest, particularly from educational institutions. Teachers and students have all come to witness the process of desalination and solar power.

Certain people thought it was highly impractical and others were concerned about the brine produced by desalination. This ultimately led to the invention of a desalinator that produces no

brine. It is in my nature to always go against the wind.

HOW HAS THIS PROJECT AFFECTED YOU PERSONALLY? Noel: Being an entrepreneur has really broadened my skill set. I had to go from just being able to build cool-looking machines to being able to explain my ideas to others and to handle other tasks related to the project.

TELL US ABOUT YOUR PRODUCT BEING ADOPTED ON THE What ADVICE WOULD PACIFIC ISLAND OF NAURU. YOU GIVE TO OTHER Noel: The Nauru project came about because INVENTORS? the island’s groundwater has been saturated with seawater. They contacted me through GEF [Global Environment Facility]. The unit is being built in my workshop in Laborie: its 90%

Noel: If you have an idea that you feel would benefit others, or even the whole world, then do all that is in your power to make it real because, believe me, the world needs ideas like those!

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The STAR Businessweek - Disaster Preparedness

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Karlis Noel responds to community concerns with innovation!

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