STAR Businessweek - Fair Farming

THE STAR Businessweek JULY 14, 2018

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Fair Farming How Fairtrade is helping revive Saint Lucia’s beleaguered banana industry Bananas were one of the first tropical fruits exported to European markets; now they can be found in every grocery store around the world. But it’s been a long journey for the world’s best loved fruit and its farmers - particularly in the Windward Islands where producers have had to battle shifting global trade alliances, natural disasters and rising costs.

By Catherine Morris, STAR Businessweek Correspondent Continued on page 4

Mauritius ‘miracle’ puts Australia in the shade Mauritius has not rested on its laurels, with its desire to attract foreign businesses, particularly in the financial services sector, evidenced by its standing at 25th, out of 190 countries, in the World Bank’s 2018 Doing Business report, enough to place it highest in Africa.

Pages 3 & 7

Negativity about immigration falls sharply in Brexit Britain British voters have the most positive views about immigrants since at least 2011, with negativity about immigration falling sharply since 2015, according to a leading survey.

Page 8

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What power do little nations have in the digital age?

By Ed Kennedy, STAR Businessweek Correspondent

more like the Cold War era than it has any time since it ended.

The US and China are squaring off in trade wars and face growing military tensions in Asia.

In times of such tension, it has been harder for smaller nations to have a big voice. It nonetheless is essential they do, especially as there are borderless threats growing significantly.

DIFFERENT KINDS OF WEAPONS

The STAR Businessweek

BY Christian Wayne – Editor at Large

This week’s issue is all about little nations and sovereign underdogs—well, mostly.

The Financial Times article on the “Mauritius Miracle” is one I have been waiting to share with our Businessweek readers for quite some time. You see, it’s not that I think our leaders have their heads in the sand when it comes to looking for development exemplars around the world, I just think their approach is a little too . . . misguided. While there’s nothing wrong, in theory, with Saint Lucia wanting to be like an America or like a Norway, we should maintain a semblance of reality, no?

What does Saint Lucia have in common with the United States? Very little. What do we have in common with Norway? . . . still waiting . . . Nothing? Exactly. It would be something entirely different if our local stewards of development compared spurring development in Saint Lucia to, say, spurring development in a small rural town in mainland America as a point of comparison but, of course, that’s never the case.

“The Americans are doing this, so we’re doing that.”

“The Norfund surpassed US$ 1trillion dollars today. We need one of those!” I get it. I share a surname with a certain fictional DC Comics superhero, but I don’t fanatisize about engaging in grand plots of vigilantism when nightfall and moonlight descend on Castries. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big dreamer but, at the same time, I do spend a solid proportion of my day in reality. I assume our local politicians do the same.

Mauritius has a little less than 10x our population and a little more than 3x our geographic size—for sake of comparison, that makes Mauriutus the 170th smallest country in the world and Saint Lucia the 179th. Mauritius, like Saint Lucia, has few natural resources to speak of and also, like Saint Lucia, is surrounded by largely unimpressive neighbours. Yet still, this year marked the island nation’s 37th year without a recession.

It’s now on course to become the second high-income country in Africa after Equatorial Guinea, but how? Read Mauritius ‘Miracle’ Puts Australia In The Shade on pages 3 & 7.

Also be sure to check out our in-house piece on the D7—the newest multilateral organisation you’ve never heard of—here on page 2, and this week’s lead story on the importance of the Fairtrade movement to the Caribbean’s shaky agriculture industry starting on the cover.

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The voice of little nations can grow stronger in the digital age

istory shows small nations have an immense capacity to be influential. In the little nation of Israel, two of the world’s great faiths—Judaism and Christianity—began. In the little nation of Ireland, writers like Wilde, Joyce and Yeats penned works that won fans for generations. More recently, the Russian World Cup saw little nations like Iceland and Uruguay delight and inspire all.

The influence of little nations is not always positive, and this has been seen locally. Many people of the Caribbean may initially have seen Fidel Castro as a champion who would throw off foreign oppression and recognise the Cuban people’s sovereign power. But history has shown the Castro regime did indeed do much oppressing itself and, even today, the Cuban people are still denied certain human rights.

Incidentally, as a nation of 11.5 million people, Cuba is the largest ‘little nation’ in the region—an area where only six nations have over 1 million people. In a world where the US has 350 million people, China 1.4 billion, and India 1.3 billion, how

strong is a little nation’s voice in 2018?

Has the digital age helped or hindered it? The answer to this requires some recent history.

A GROWTH SYSTEM

In 1992 political scientist Francis Fukuyama published his famous work The End of History and the Last Man. Fukuyama theorised the triumph of liberal democracy and its close links to economic growth showed it was the best model, and the last step in the evolution of a society.

At the time his theory was supported by plenty of evidence.

The USSR had crumbled and, with it, the end of any chance that global communism would triumph. Alongside the US, the economic success of Japan, German and Western Europe was celebrated. For a time it seemed like Fukuyama’s theory was borne out globally.

But Japan’s bubble burst, the People’s Republic of China surged and Vladimir Putin took office intent on reestablishing Russia’s military prowess (even if its economy continues to stagnate). Right now, the world looks

Identifying how influence has changed is central to understanding how a little nation can hold power in the global community.

Once upon a time military might counted for everything.

A look at the annual spend of any major military power confirms this is still the case. Yet today, it’s globally recognised that the era of military empires and colonial imperialism is over.

This will bring some relief to nations with a bitter history of colonialism. No world power today would be optimistic at its capacity to unilaterally invade a nation and declare it now the territory of a foreign king or queen. The ostracising of Russia and hard sanctions it has been dealt since its 2014 incursion into the Ukraine is testament to this.

This is surely comfort to nations with a bitter history in this sphere. Yet, though that era is gone, none can overlook the fact that foreign intrusion can come in new forms.

From the risks of incurring gargantuan foreign debt at the government level, to the security risks of citizenship by investment at an individual level, to issues like net neutrality as a whole.

As distinct from naval ships sailing up to a shore, net neutrality isn’t akin to an invasion but, if it fundamentally undermines the present prosperity and future growth of a nation, is it not a threat?

A NEW ARENA FOR ENGAGEMENT

For those nations that can sidestep the pitfalls of our rapidly globalising world, there is real opportunity here. While none would cheer the advent of climate change, it has thrust into the spotlight nations that are being most directly impacted. That means seats at the table that set the course of global future directions in sustainability, environmental policy, and beyond.

Alongside this, in a world that has seen a democratic deficit in recent years, the leadership of Caribbean nations as a voice for the democracy and rule of law cannot be overlooked. While CIPs are controversial, there is no controversy surrounding why foreign investors find living within a Caribbean nation appealing Continued on page 5

EMERGING MARKETS

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Mauritius ‘miracle’ puts Australia in the shade Island nation’s 37 years without a recession offers lessons to the rest of Africa

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By Steve Johnson, FT Correspondent

uring a private meeting at April’s Commonwealth summit in London, Australia’s representatives were keen to push the oft-repeated message that the “Lucky Country” has now chalked up a record-beating 26 years without a recession, surpassing the previous tally held by the Netherlands.

Not so, shot back Pravind Jugnauth, prime minister of Mauritius, who pointed out that the Indian Ocean island state has gone an impressive 37 years without a recession and had its eyes on becoming only the second high-income country in Africa.

Annual economic growth has not dipped below 1.6 per cent since the 1980s—in a country with a population growth rate of just 0.6 per cent (albeit this was higher in the 1980s and 1990s).

As a result, real per capita GDP (at purchasing power parity, 2011 dollars) has quadrupled from $4,529 in 1980 to a projected $20,404 this year, according to the IMF, illustrated in the chart on page 7.

This took the nation of 1.3m people from 82nd in the world in terms of income per head to 53rd, based on countries included in the 1980 data (eg not including the post-Soviet or post-Yugoslav states that did not exist in 1980).

Mauritius’ rise has been impressive, considering “it doesn’t have any natural resources apart from its beaches,” in the words of Ian Matthews, head of business development at Bravura, a Mauritiusheadquartered boutique investment bank.

Indeed, James Meade, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, wrote in the 1960s that “it is going to be a great achievement if [an independent Mauritius] can find productive

Mauritius’ rise has been impressive, considering “it doesn’t have any natural resources apart from its beaches,” in the words of Ian Matthews, head of business development at Bravura

employment for its population without a serious reduction in the existing standard of living,” adding that “the outlook for peaceful development is weak”. VS Naipaul, Nobel laureate for literature, was equally dismissive.

“Two Nobel Prize winners said it was going to fail, there is too much ethnic division, they are in the middle of the ocean, they have nothing to offer anybody,” said Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, an emerging market-focused investment bank.

Yet development has been so strong that Joseph Stiglitz, a left-leaning former chief

economist of the World Bank, coined the phrase the “Mauritius miracle” in 2011, writing that it had built “a diverse economy, a democratic political system, and a strong social safety net,” and that 87 per cent of Mauritians own their own homes, pointedly adding that “many countries, not least the US, could learn from its experience”.

Of more relevance might be whether there is anything other emerging countries, particularly those elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, can learn from Mauritius’ example.

At independence from the UK in 1968, the mainstay of the economy, as in many poorer

countries, was agriculture, specifically the sugar industry.

Mauritius started to industrialise and diversify its economy in the 1970s, abandoning a policy of importsubstitution that failed, in part, due to the small size of the domestic market.

Instead, it embraced exports, with an ambitious export processing zone act that fast-tracked approvals for exportfocused manufacturers, according to analysis by the World Bank.

Continued on page 7

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INVESTING IN COMMUNITIES “Farmers receive a Fairtrade minimum price, which is higher than the price for generic bananas on the market. This makes their business more attractive and assists them in meeting the high cost of banana production.”

—NFTOSL General Manager Silvanius Fontenard

Fair Farming How Fairtrade is helping revive Saint Lucia’s beleaguered banana industry Continued from page 1

Almost all banana farmers in the Eastern Caribbean are designated Fairtrade producers, making them part of a global social movement that focuses on improving working conditions and creating development opportunities for small farmers and labourers. There are around 300 Fairtrade farmers in Saint Lucia, all producing bananas which are shipped to the UK. The Fairtrade label has been a lifeline for these farmers, as it helps the industry get back on its feet.

BRINGING BACK BANANAS

Saint Lucia’s banana industry has a turbulent history. Once a thriving and profitable mainstay of local agriculture, the sector began declining in the 1990s when the European Union re-examined its system of preferential market access and began harmonising tariffs and quotas. Saint Lucia found itself buffeted by the resulting increased competition and lowered prices.

Several devastating hurricanes in the early 2000s also weakened the sector. The country’s banana farmers saw their livelihoods rapidly dwindle and many left the sector, diversifying into other crops or abandoning agriculture altogether.

In recent years there’s been something of a rebound, however. Agriculture Minister Ezechiel Joseph said the sector produced almost 20,000 tonnes of bananas in 2017 - an almost 300 per cent increase from the previous year. While the numbers are still a far cry from the island’s heyday (Saint Lucia shipped 132,000 tonnes in 1992), it is a positive sign that demand remains strong and growth is on the horizon.

The Fairtrade system has a part to play in this recovery, generating employment, stabilising incomes, investing in infrastructure and establishing support networks within countries and across the region.

The official Fairtrade designation covers a vast global network of small farmers, co-operatives and workers. There are over 1.6m Fairtrade farmers and workers worldwide, and 21% of them are found in Latin America and the Caribbean. Efforts to establish a national Fairtrade body began in Saint Lucia in 2002 and the National Fairtrade Organization (St Lucia) Inc (NFTOSL) was formally launched in 2004.

The Fairtrade standards, enshrined in a Charter of Principles in 2009, cover a wide range of issues such as fair wages for workers, decent working conditions, health and safety standards and terms of trade. Under the scheme, producers that meet those standards are guaranteed a minimum price for their goods to ensure they can cover their costs and continue trading in the face of market volatility. The minimum price is designed to act as a safety net, protecting farmers’ incomes when times get tough.

“Farmers receive a Fairtrade minimum price, which is higher than the price for generic bananas on the market. This makes their business more attractive and assists them in meeting the high cost of banana production, which is much higher [in the Caribbean] than in most other regions,” explains NFTOSL General Manager Silvanius Fontenard. “This increases the income earned by the industry, and obviously the country.”

Alongside the minimum price, producers also receive a Fairtrade premium. This is an additional sum that’s earmarked for farmers and their communities. The premium for Saint Lucia’s farmers is US$1 per box on 90% of the fruit sold (the first 10% does not earn a premium). The funds are siphoned off into a communal fund and used to improve local social, economic and environmental conditions. The farmers themselves decide where the money is best spent, whether on healthcare, education or reinvested into their businesses, funding new agricultural equipment or facilities. In this way, the Fairtrade benefits ripple outward, impacting not only farmers inside the network but also their families, their communities and, ultimately, their countries. In 2015 nearly EUR 80m was invested in the region through Fairtrade premiums, 67% of the global total.

In the last decade, the NFTOSL has invested over EC$2.6m into social projects that have benefitted some of Saint Lucia’s most deprived communities. In one example, Fairtrade farmers in the Mabouya Valley used their premium to fund a school and developmental centre for children with special needs.

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SUSTAINABILITY AND SURVIVAL

Faced with increasing competition in a crowded market and more intense environmental threats, Caribbean banana farmers are struggling. In Saint Lucia the Fairtrade system is a vital part of keeping the industry alive, according to Fontenard who says: “The cost of production of bananas is very high compared to in Latin America and Africa, who are our main competitors in the UK market. As a result, the survival of the banana farmers here is enhanced by the Fairtrade price and social premium. Without the Fairtrade system it would be very difficult for most farmers here to make a living.”

Fairtrade is not without its critics, however.

The biggest market for Saint Lucia’s bananas is the UK, where the brand has taken a hit in recent years due to rumours of mismanagement, oversupply and failure to enforce Fairtrade standards.

Transparency and data management is a key area of focus for the Latin American and Caribbean Network of Fair Trade Small Producers and Workers (CLAC). In its 2018 Banana Plan, the group has set a goal of strengthening its Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Department which governs certification, standards and the collection of research and data for partner organisations and consumers.

As Fairtrade organisations move to quell concerns, demand for Fairtrade is now on the rise. The latest generation of shoppers is more likely to be ethical consumers who understand their purchasing power and have a desire to affect change. In 2016 the global Fairtrade banana market rose by 5%, with just under 600,000 tonnes of the fruit sold worldwide.

Fairtrade International celebrated its 20th

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Continued from page 2

anniversary last year. Looking ahead to the future, the organisation has drawn up a comprehensive strategy that details its goals through to 2020. Priorities on this roadmap include building resilient agriculture in the face of climate change concerns, empowering more women and young people in farming and developing more beneficial relationships with commercial partners.

CLAC is responsible for guiding these efforts in the Caribbean, and also wants to align its strategy with the region’s Sustainable Development Goals. According to CLAC Chair Marike de Peña: “We have arrived at a crucial moment in time. These goals aim to build a more equitable, inclusive and resilient society. Building a more sustainable world requires action, and must be regarded as an obligation to our children and future generations.”

The UK offers leading digital nations recruitment advice at a D5 summit

given the stability and prosperity that local nations can offer.

‘Brand Caribbean’ is strong in this regard, whether its nations have populations of billions or thousands. It is an identity ripe for export in the digital age, especially in a world where the leadership of nations in the digital economy sees them assessed not for their population, but their technology.

How else to explain how the little Eastern European nation of Estonia is today the envy of the emerging tech world for its pioneering of eGov and blockchain?

If the Caribbean is to export its influence, looking to Estonia’s advances in this space warrants critical consideration.

Especially given the rising prominence of the Digital 7 (D7) group in which it’s a

founding member.

Recent decades show Fukuyama was incorrect in claiming a triumph of liberal democracy.

Future decades will test whether he was totally wrong, or just simply premature. Notwithstanding the efforts by authoritarian governments, in the digital arena the world has trended to information exchange that’s truly global, and communication that’s truly open. Among all voices, big or small.

Today all members of D7—South Korea, Canada, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Israel, Uruguay, and New Zealand—have a devotion to growing digital government, and to democratic government.

The latter four also have small populations and would surely welcome other like-minded populations that share a commitment to

growing digital opportunity, and to ensuring all nations have a voice at the table when global issues arise. The road ahead doesn’t see power diminishing for little nations in our world; it can grow, provided the right path is taken.

SIZING UP THE CONNECTION

The voice of little nations can grow stronger in the digital age. There is now a greater capacity for smaller nations to build bigger bridges locally and globally, than anytime before in human history.

While it is a time of opportunity, there are also new threats emerging in our world.

Not only can little nations have a greater voice, it now is increasingly vital they do, to ensure that, in the online and offline world, they maintain and grow an enduring connection within the online community.

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What power do little nations have in the digital age?

The Fairtrade standards, enshrined in a Charter of Principles in 2009, cover a wide range of issues such as fair wages for workers, decent working conditions, health and safety standards and terms of trade

“Without the Fairtrade system it would be very difficult for most farmers here to make a living,” says Mr. Fontenard

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Development

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Free WiFi Services Installed in the Constituency of Micoud North Press release

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ducation Minister and Parliamentary Representative for Micoud North Honorable Dr. Gale Rigobert has welcomed the launch of the Government of Saint Lucia Island-Wide Network (GINet) Project in her constituency, and appealed to students to use the free internet services for research and educational advancement.

The launch of the GINet Project in Micoud took place on Wednesday July 4, 2018, and forms part of the government’s quest to bridge the urban/rural digital divide, and address the issue of low internet penetration. The project, in the main, involves the installation of seventy access points in public spaces around the island and will provide residents and tourists with free internet access. As far as Micoud is concerned, eight access points have been installed throughout the vicinity of the playing field and the primary and infant schools.

According to Dr. Rigobert, “The expectation is, therefore, that citizens who were previously barred or disconnected or, for whatever reason—be it a lack of competence or the inability to pay for such service—will now

have this privilege to congregate in this vicinity to become connected, not only for recreational purposes, but for you to be able to explore the world from your fingertips, acquaint yourself with new knowledge, become aware of new opportunities for yourself and for your community.”

The US$4 million GINet Project is a partnership between the Government of Saint Lucia and the Government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) which has injected the larger share of US$3.28 million into the project, in addition to the provision of technical expertise.

Dr. Rigobert said the Government of Saint Lucia is very grateful for this contribution towards the development of ICT on the island.

She voiced: “It means a lot to us that, thanks to your generosity and benevolence, persons that might have found themselves on the wrong side of the digital divide have now found themselves on the right side of that divide.”

It is the intention of the Government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) to extend the GINet Project to other constituencies and, according to His Excellency Ambassador

H.E. Douglas C.T. Shen (centre) with Hon. Dr. Gale Rigobert (right) and Ms. Brenda Paul, Chairperson of Micoud North Consituency Council

Douglas Shen, the aim is to make Saint Lucia the icon for information and Communication Technology in the Eastern Caribbean.

“I think Taiwan has the advantage of high tech and this is what we need in Saint Lucia. So I

would like to guarantee you, as long as I am here I will try to promote the high tech in Saint Lucia and this is what we need in Saint Lucia. After the GINet we are going to have a new project in Saint Lucia which will be committed to building a smart island,” said Ambassador Shen.

The Department of Public Service, which is the implementing agency for the GINet Project, is elated that communities can now experience the tremendous benefits of being connected. “We are enthusiastic about the project, which should see Saint Lucia’s world internet ranking improving, and look forward to experiencing the resulting positive national impact associated with nurturing a more connected and better equipped people,” said the Department’s Acting Deputy Permanent Secretary, Mrs. Sheila Imbert.

The communities of Canaries, Dennery, Micoud, Vieux Fort and Central Castries have been identified as the beneficiaries of phase one of the GINet Project. The next GINet WiFi launch is earmarked for Castries in the coming weeks.

The Saint Lucia Government Gazette Company Registration Name: Brickstone Corporate Services Ltd.

Name: C.J.R. Investments Inc.

Description: Corporate and secretarial services

Description: Retail and real estate

Directors: Julia Chase; Joanne Charles;

Directors: Cordelia Raynold

Duane Jean Baptiste; Thomas Theobalds

Date Incorporated: 25-Jun-18

Date Incorporated: 20-Jun-18

Chamber: SEDU, Saint Lucia

Chamber: Brickstone Law, Saint Lucia

Name: SirWay Ltd. Name: Multiplicity Inc.

Description: Consultancy firm

Description: Construction and project management

Directors: Konsta Sirvio; Zavr Izzatdust

Directors: Adela Charles; Sebastian Charles; Sydel Charles

Date Incorporated: 25-Jun-18

Date Incorporated: 22-Jun-18

Chamber: Norman Francis Chambers,

Chamber: Pierre, Mondesir & Associates, Saint Lucia

Saint Lucia

Name: Dècor Rail Inc.

Name: Furniture Tech Ltd.

Description: Architectural railing

Description: Furniture manufacturing

Directors: Kenneth Doxerie

Directors: Howard Dariah; Lance Octave

Date Incorporated: 25-Jun-18

Date Incorporated: 28-Jun-18

Chamber: SEDU, Saint Lucia

Chamber: Brickstone Law, Saint Lucia

EMERGING MARKETS

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Mauritius ‘miracle’ puts Australia in the shade Continued from page 3

Mr Robertson noted that many other African states have still not prioritised export industries (which tend to be the most productive) to this extent, an approach that could benefit the likes of Nigeria, although the latter does at least have the benefit of a large domestic market.

Mauritius’ industrialisation and export push was founded on the textile industry, a relatively low-skilled sector that involved converting imported fabrics into finished goods.

“A lot of people talk about the tourism side but the biggest industry is textiles,” said Mr Matthews.

Simultaneously, though, the country embarked on a push to improve its human development indicators, preparing the ground for a move up the skills chain.

School enrolment rates were raised, life expectancy jumped from 62 in 1970 to 74.6 today, infant mortality fell from 64 per 1,000 live births in 1970 to 10 and the Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, dropped from 0.50 in 1962 to 0.36 (ie closer to perfect equality of 0), even as this measure has risen in many countries.

This improvement in the quality of its workforce paved the way for Mauritius to move into higher-skilled, higher-value added sectors, such as business process outsourcing and financial services Mr Robertson, who has extensively researched the links between countries’ literacy rates and their subsequent ability to develop, said: “You need to get to 70 per cent literacy to industrialise. This happened in the 1970s, and [Mauritius] then moved on to financial services in the 1980s and 1990s.

“That has got them to be the thirdrichest country in Africa,” behind only the Seychelles, another Indian Ocean island state, and Equatorial Guinea, although in the case of the latter so much of the income is grabbed by a kleptocratic elite that the bulk of the population still lives in abject poverty, rendering its high GDP/capita somewhat meaningless.

Mauritius is “an example for Africa of how you can be written off when your literacy rate is sub-70 per cent but it doesn’t take long for things to come together, maybe a decade”, Mr Robertson added.

“They are a good 50 years ahead of some African countries. Ethiopia still hasn’t got the literacy rate Mauritius had in the 1950s. Some countries are three generations behind,” he said.

Mauritius has not rested on its laurels, with its desire to attract foreign businesses, particularly in the financial services sector, evidenced by its standing at 25th, out of 190 countries, in the World Bank’s 2018 Doing Business

Mauritius is “an example for Africa of how you can be written off when your literacy rate is sub-70 per cent but it doesn’t take long for things to come together, maybe a decade”, Mr Robertson added

report, enough to place it highest in Africa.

“South Africa was the gateway to Africa because of its sophisticated financial services industry but we have seen a lot of the international banks opening offices in Mauritius in the last few years. It has made itself a much more attractive jurisdiction [and is] putting pressure on South Africa,” said Mr Matthews.

“It doesn’t have exchange controls, which is a problem most of Africa has. It’s relatively tax benign and is an easy place to do business, so a lot of fiduciary businesses have sprung up. A lot of funds that invest in Africa invest via Mauritius.”

Mr Matthews also praised Mauritius’ strong rule of law. Noting that the Supreme Court has granted permission to the state prosecutor to challenge Mr Jugnauth’s acquittal in a corruption case by appealing to the UK’s Privy Council — retained as the highest court of appeal after independence — Mr Matthews said this was “an exemplary example of how politically important figures are still subject to the rule of law, which I don’t think is the case in the rest of Africa”.

Mauritius still has challenges, of course. One of the issues flagged up in the IMF’s 2017 review of the country is that “lacklustre productivity and rapid real wage growth in recent years have reduced cost competitiveness”.

To some extent, Mr Robertson sees the nation as being a victim of its own success, with wages being pushed up by a tight

labour market.

“The result of [Mauritius’] success is that the labour market has stopped growing.

They don’t have many kids and haven’t for some decades and their population is ageing,” he said. “They are possibly the first country in sub-Saharan Africa that is confronting the challenges that China and Europe are facing. They have lost their demographic dividend.”

Mr Robertson argued that the short-term solution was to open up the economy to foreign workers, while in the longer run Mauritius should focus on raising productivity levels by improving education levels still further.

Mr Matthews agreed, saying the country “will lose more of the blue-collar jobs to other places in the world, especially Africa [but] increasingly take on value-added jobs,” mirroring the way China has moved up the skills chain.

Mauritius clearly has some natural advantages some other African countries cannot necessarily replicate, such as its attractions as a tourist destination and large Indian diaspora, which has helped develop links with India’s financial sector.

The latter could prove less fruitful in the future, however, after an amendment to the country’s double taxation avoidance agreement with India means capital gains taxes will, for the first time, be levied on Mauritius-based investments in India.

More broadly, Mauritius has been caught up in a global clampdown on offshore tax

havens. The country has, so far, managed to keep on the right side of the OECD, which is leading the crackdown, but only by agreeing to review some of its existing tax treaties.

With the country now on the OECD’s “white list” of tax jurisdictions that co-operate with other countries, Mr Matthews said the Paris-based body “seems to have become comfortable with Mauritius as an investment destination, not as unfair tax competition”.

Mr Robertson argued that many of the steps Mauritius is now taking are not overly relevant for the rest of Africa because its education levels are so far ahead, but that some of the measures it took to get to this stage of development are worth its regional peers studying.

Some have already taken that step, with Ivory Coast, Madagascar, Ghana and Senegal all asking for Mauritius’ help and advice in setting up special economic zones, something that could prove a win-win if Mauritius ends up providing banking services to such projects.

As for Mauritius’ hope of reaching highincome status by 2023, a target that would require raising its GDP per capita from $9,794 last year to more than $12,000 in order to meet the World Bank’s definition, Mr Matthews felt 2023 “might be a bit ambitious,” even if the country can extend its record-breaking recessionfree run to an impressive 42 years.

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UK immigration

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Negativity about immigration falls sharply in Brexit Britain

Social Attitudes survey shows most positive views on migrants since at least 2011

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By Henry Mance, FT Political Correspondent

ritish voters have the most positive views about immigrants since at least 2011, with negativity about immigration falling sharply since 2015, according to a leading survey.

The British Social Attitudes survey, seen as the country’s most rigorous polling exercise, found that just 17 per cent of Britons thought that immigrants had a negative impact on the economy. Just 23 per cent thought immigrants undermined Britain’s cultural life.

Both counts are markedly lower than when the questions were last asked in 2015, before the Brexit referendum campaign. In 2011, when the questions were first asked, about 40 per cent of people thought immigrants were bad for the economy or British cultural life.

“There is little sign here that the EU referendum campaign served to make Britain less tolerant towards migrants; rather they have apparently come to be valued to a degree that was not in evidence before the referendum campaign,” the survey said.

Rhetoric about immigration spiralled during the referendum campaign and there were reports of increasing crimes against immigrants after the vote. However, this summer the England football team has been heralded as an example of the benefits of diversity: six members of England’s starting 11 had at least one parent born outside the UK. But the BSA underlined that opinions on Brexit have shifted little. The public has proved “relatively resistant to attempts to change their minds about what the consequences of leaving the EU would be”.

“There is little sign here that the EU referendum campaign served to make Britain less tolerant towards migrants” according to the survey

It also found growing public support for more welfare spending for the disabled, the unemployed and parents but not for pensioners. Overall views on welfare are their most positive since at least 2001. Separately, 71 per cent of voters favour a rise in the minimum wage. Public exhaustion with austerity and stalling wages is seen as a key factor in the better than expected electoral fortunes of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.

One of the survey’s most intriguing findings relates to automation: three-quarters of respondents said that, within 10 years, machines or computers would do many of the jobs currently done by humans, but only one in 10 were worried about the threat to their own jobs.

More than 90 per cent of people agree that climate change is definitely or probably happening due to human activity, but only 36 per cent see humans as the primary cause.

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