Global Tax Expert Says CIP Here To Stay

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GLOBAL TAX EXPERT SAYS CIP HERE TO STAY

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Oil and Water: Guyana’s Path Ahead

Guyana’s good fortune in striking oil is among the most compelling business stories in the Caribbean today, not just for the dynamism it promises to bring to the nation’s economy, but for its potential to completely transform the country.

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A History of Hurricanes: The Evolution of the Caribbean’s Storm Response Strategy

Andrew Henderson is the founder and managing partner of Nomad Capitalist, a business that assists clients in the acquisition of second passports, the establishment of foreign bank accounts and other complementary pursuits. STAR Businessweek correspondent Ed Kennedy spoke with Andrew on the contemporary landscape of tax, Citizenship

by Investment Programmes (CIPs) and the impact of political volatility on the industry.

The first recorded hurricane in the Caribbean hit Hispaniola in 1495, during Christopher Columbus’ second voyage to the island. Described as “violent” by the Europeans, the storm rattled the fleet but was nothing new to the indigenous Carib and Taino people who named it “huracan”.

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Continued on page 4 Devastation in Haiti after Hurricane Matthew (Photo courtesy United Nations)

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DESTINATION WEDDINGS

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BAD ROMANCE:

Weddings and honeymoons dominate St Lucia’s tourism but is it time to shake up the matrimony market?

BY CATHERINE MORRIS, STAR BUSINESSWEEK CORRESPONDENT

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The Pitons are a draw for adventurous couples (Photo courtesy the Caribbean Tourism Organisation)

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aint Lucia has been voted ‘World’s Leading Honeymoon Destination’ ten times by the World Travel Awards, and is on track to take that honour once more after being nominated again this year.

In 2018 romance accounted for almost 24,000 stay-over arrivals and was the third largest niche behind holiday/ leisure and visiting family or relatives.

Whether drawn by the Instagram-worthy scenery for those enviable wedding and engagement photos, lured by the tropical climate or taking advantage of attractive packages offered by resorts or the Saint Lucia Tourism Authority (SLTA), couples are the stand-out segment that many stakeholders view as the ‘golden goose’ of the market.

But is this reliance on romance the best strategy? As with any business, diversification is key – to hedge against uncertainty in the market, broaden the customer base and plan for long-term profitability. By focusing so intently on honeymooners and the like, is Saint Lucia’s tourism missing out on other niches?

LEVERAGING LINKS SLTA Public Relations Manager John Emmanuel thinks not. He says the Authority’s strategy is to leverage its romantic reputation to spread the wealth to other sectors and adds: “Our brand is a focus on all that is alluring, beautiful and romantic about our culture. We market Saint Lucia as an island made for lovers [but] we take a holistic approach. We try to tie that market into others. We do not want to put everything into one basket.”

Generally speaking, travellers in love are big spenders. They stay at top-brand resorts such as Sandals and Royalton, they spend in a number of subsidiary sectors for items such as couples’ experiences, wedding outfits, catering, photography and event management. “A lot of money goes into destination weddings. For the normal couple the next biggest investment after a home is their wedding. The planning does not happen overnight, it is years in the making,” says Emmanuel.

This gives operators a chance to leverage links with other on-trend niches such as health and wellness, and Continued on page 6

GUYANA

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OIL AND WATER: GUYANA’S PATH AHEAD

BY ED KENNEDY, STAR BUSINESSWEEK CORRESPONDENT

G

uyana’s good fortune in striking oil is among the most compelling business stories in the Caribbean today, not just for the dynamism it promises to bring to the nation’s economy, but for its potential to completely transform the country. As we’ve detailed prior at STAR Businessweek, this transition won’t be easy, owing to numerous competing interests that threaten to place barriers in the path of national progress.

It was always understood by advocates and critics alike that just as it took many years for the nation’s oil to be discovered, there would be many twists and turns as the shift from oil discovery to output began. So how has Guyana fared in the past year? And what is the forecast for its future?

HOW WE GOT HERE As of September 2019 it is estimated that Guyana has more than US$ 6bn worth of oil-equivalent barrels within the Stabroek Block. ExxonMobil commenced oil and gas operations in 2008. The Liza-1 well discovery was announced in May 2015, with many other major finds subsequently.

The Longtail-1 well in June 2018, the Hammerhead-1 in August 2018 and the Tilapia-1 in January 2019 have added to the stockpile. Now exploration is set to continue, with ExxonMobil moving on from its recent drilling at Tripletail, and searching for reserves in the Uaru-1 well, 10kms east of the Liza Field.

The government has also since signed a number of other oil contracts alongside its deal with ExxonMobil.

WHERE TO NOW? The current excitement of the Guyanese people is tempered by a difficult truth – that converting oil reserves into clear-cut financial benefits won’t be easy, especially while balancing competing national interests.

In his 2019 budget speech, Minister of Finance Winston D. Jordan outlined his government’s vision, saying, “Discovery of very significant oil reserves has put Guyana at a critical point in its history, providing us with the opportunity to shift our development path, modernize our economy and transform the lives of our citizens.”

Further: “We [Guyanese] are poised for rapid economic expansion, and our government is committed to pursuing economic and social policies

Concession blocks sold by the Guyanese government to oil and gas majors and juniors current through 2018

conducive to equitable, sustainable and environmentally-friendly growth.”

Jordan flagged the upgrade of road, airport and telecommunications as key priorities in the short term; beyond that, greater investment in education and health. Thereafter, the aspiration to see the newfound wealth from the oil flow down to the Guyanese most in need.

Guyana’s sudden shift from being among the least affluent nations in the Caribbean to predictions it could become one of the richest nations in the world, means there’s an opportunity in the decade ahead to undergo a substantial nation-building project.

This is something the Guyanese leaders feel they can and must do if they are to properly seize the opportunities the oil finds have presented, but the past year has proved a rocky beginning to Guyana as a major oil-producing nation.

THE CRISIS OF THE GOVERNING CLASS Although there is oil and a promising future for Guyana, undoubtedly the nation’s governing class did itself few favours in advancing it over a past year that was replete with political upheaval.

The undercurrent of this issue is that the injection of such substantial revenue into the nation means the risk grows that political instability today will generate more woe tomorrow.

June 2019 saw a landmark ruling made in the Caribbean Court of Justice

surrounding an appeal to the CCJ after a vote of no-confidence in Guyana’s House of Assembly during December 2018. This appeal followed Guyana missing a legal deadline for elections to occur in March 2019; elections are now set for March 2020. The battle lines for this contest are drawn between the People’s National Congress and the People’s Progressive Party, with the latter flagging a number of oil contracts signed after the ExxonMobil one may come up for review, if it is in government after the election.

Many Guyanese now look back on the contract first formed in 1999 between ExxonMobil and the government – and subsequently modified in October 2016 – as a missed opportunity to negotiate a better deal. Even without any attempt to reopen or renegotiate the deal by the government, ExxonMobil must brace for a tough reception, with a Guyanese government in 2020 intent on seeing the contract performed strictly through every single barrel. There could also be consequences for Guyana’s governing class too. With political instability comes unpredictability; although the nation is an attractive market right now, it’s not invulnerable to competition from elsewhere.

AT HOME AND ABROAD Beyond the domestic turmoil Guyana has encountered, the past year has seen complications arise in its

foreign affairs. Some of these could be potentially beneficial.

Venezuelan National Assembly speaker and disputed president Juan Guiado has won attention from Venuezelan prosecutors after allegedly negotiating to renounce Venezuela’s claim to the disputed territory. Whether this actually occurred, or Guiado would follow through with a sale upon becoming the unquestioned leader of the nation, is unclear but it creates a new calculation for Guyana in the future relationship between Georgetown and Caracas.

There’s also the matter of climate change. The Guyanese governing class know that in the short term they have strong prospects of growing their oil output while positioning themselves as climate activists, and certainly Guyana isn’t alone in this arena. Canada, under the recently re-elected leadership of Justin Trudeau, has staked a claim as an international leader on climate action, while nonetheless signing up for a US$ 3.45bn tar sands pipeline.

A decade from now, when the consequences of climate change in the region could grow even worse and action become far more urgent, Guyana could increasingly find that its oil industry becomes a foreign affairs liability, especially in regional SBW relationships.

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INTERNATIONAL TAXATION

GLOBAL TAX EXPERT SAYS CIP HERE TO STAY: Interview with Andrew Henderson, Nomad Capitalist Continued from page 1

BUSINESSWEEK: You’ve made a selling point of tax minimisation. Many countries have looked to clamp down on what they see as tax avoidance or evasion, wanting to see instead a framework whereby profits earned locally are taxed locally. Do you see this trend becoming global or will nations, such as those in the Caribbean, resist and remain attractive to interested parties?

ANDREW: I think it will become more and more difficult to pursue tax minimisation. That said, right now, to my mind, there’s a lot of tax, and not much action – and ultimately there will always be somewhere to domicile that’s favourable. The more that pressure grows for a clampdown, the more will nations who offer low taxation find new customers, and be incentivised to keep offering such an option to high net worth individuals. I also think over time most countries will shift to doing an onshore/ offshore hybrid – like the UK, where what someone pays each year on their earnings while living in London would be very different to someone who bases their tax affairs in the island of Jersey.

BUSINESSWEEK: St Kitts and Nevis has had scandals with its CIP. Do you believe such episodes diminish a CIP’s desirability or are potential applicants keen on a destination, regardless?

ANDREW: I think most people want a CIP, keen on having a back-up plan. In this regard, what each CIP offers in terms of price and other factors, and what is most convenient for the applicant – for example, an American getting a second passport for a Caribbean nation will mean their back-up is closer to home than a European one – will be a stronger drawcard. Certainly more so than whether an applicant particularly likes St Kitts’ beaches more than Dominica’s, or any scandals each nation has had accordingly.

BUSINESSWEEK: Recent political earthquakes have been the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit issue.

Debate persists about whether these events are outliers or the start of a new chapter. Do you anticipate a reset, or do you believe events like this will be the new normal?

ANDREW: I think issues like this are an example of people being upset, of the middle class being upset. I get it, and the trends that underwrite it. We’ve seen a situation over the past 30 to 40 years where people in litigation and management have set about hiring people in emerging countries. As a result, wages have gone up in developing nations, but haven’t gone up in highly advanced ones like the United States. In this environment, people are frustrated and they vote for what they hope will deliver them change, whether or not the leader actually can or will.

Andrew Henderson, founder and managing partner of Nomad Capitalist (Source: https://nomadcapitalist.com/)

BUSINESSWEEK: You’ve detailed what such change means domestically in nations like the US; what do you think it means internationally?

ANDREW: I think you’re going to be seeing a lot of people with pitchforks in hand, coming after those who’ve had success. Governments are not keeping up with the needs of their people. As a result, in the next 10 to 20 years, I think they’ll be a real pursuit of successful people in some countries, and also governments breaking the ‘social contract’ and dipping into people’s retirement accounts and investments like it to bankroll public spending. It’s why I always advise my clients to diversify their investments.

Never put all your money in one account, even when it comes to ‘trusted’ ones like a government retirement account. Doing so is just dumb given the volatility in politics right now.

I think you’re going to be seeing a lot of people with pitchforks in hand, coming after those who’ve had success

BUSINESSWEEK: We’re also seeing volatility in the world. Hong Kong’s a noted example. To what extent do you see CIPs growing in value, not only for the freedoms they offer, but for the protection of people, allowing them to avoid persecution in their native land?

ANDREW: Well, it’s no secret we have an expensive fee structure at Nomad Capitalist. We streamline a service for people with high net worth so we will typically deal with clients who look at a CIP more like a back-up plan than a ticket to freedom. Although, it’s also true that back-up plans are becoming more important for all. Sure, if you’ve 100 or 200 million dollars, you need an insurance policy in case your native nation has a crisis. Yet, even for people with a smaller net worth, it can take a lifetime to build a fortune and it can be lost overnight depending on if a government decides to freeze bank accounts. So, as more and more people become wealthier and more mobile, I could see an uptick in CIPs appealing to a wider audience.

BUSINESSWEEK: How can the CIP industry improve, going forward?

ANDREW: I think nations need to do a better job at differentiating themselves.

Few have a unique selling point. I also think many overprice their CIP offering.

If you have a newer CIP and it’s the

same as every other one in your region for the same price, it’s naive to think business is going to boom. So more points of difference and lower prices would be nice to see.

BUSINESSWEEK: What misunderstanding do you feel needs to die in this space?

ANDREW: I think any idea CIPs are the flavour of the month is wrong.

Here’s why: people need to get used to the politics of envy, of the differences between us, and that these are enduring.

For example, most Americans don’t have a passport, and many haven’t even left their home state. My business isn’t going to appeal to someone with that mindset. Yet these people are the same ones who think Trump is going to get coal jobs back; it won’t happen.

I feel the future is about ownership – of your destiny and your assets. I’m transparent about my business and what it offers to deliver ownership. I wish politicians were more transparent about the nature of the issues out there, and to what extent they could actually fix them.

To learn more about Andrew Henderson and the work of Nomad Capitalist, visit www.nomadcapitalist.com. You can also see Nomad Capitalist’s video blog on YouTube via www.youtube.com/user/ nomadcapitalist/videos

HURRICANE RESILIENCE

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A HISTORY OF HURRICANES: The evolution of the Caribbean’s storm response strategy

BY CATHERINE MORRIS, STAR BUSINESSWEEK CORRESPONDENT

T

he first recorded hurricane in the Caribbean hit Hispaniola in 1495, during Christopher Columbus’ second voyage to the island. Described as “violent” by the Europeans, the storm rattled the fleet but was nothing new to the indigenous Carib and Taino people who named it “huracan”.

More than five centuries later, there are a lot more tools at the region’s disposal to deal with the aftermath of storms, but there are also a number of unaddressed issues that continue to affect the scale of the devastation, such as substandard housing, inadequate medical infrastructure and lack of a co-ordinated global consensus on how to treat climate refugees.

INFRASTRUCTURE INNOVATION There have been five category 5 hurricanes in the last four Atlantic hurricane seasons. The history of the Caribbean is a history of resilience and rebuilding as storms lay waste to the islands year after year, but many in the region are still living in shanty town conditions little better than the huts of their ancestral predecessors.

When Hurricane Maria hit Dominica in 2017 it wiped out 90 per cent of the island’s structures, not only reducing homes to rubble but also obliterating the infrastructure necessary for basic services such as electricity, water and sanitation.

Innovation in this space, aided and propelled by advances in technology, has led to more storm-resistant structures hitting the market. There are now hurricane-proof homes, hurricaneproof greenhouses and hurricane-proof windows, all capable of withstanding category 5 winds. But these innovative designs are out of reach for most homeowners whose household income barely stretches to cover a mortgage.

According to the University of Alabama, a hurricane-fortified home (as classified by the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety) sells for 7 per cent more than an average property. And building homes from sturdier material, such as concrete, costs about 15 per cent more than wood frames, according to experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. As the market grows, it’s likely that increased competition will drive down prices but safe and resilient housing remains inaccessible to the average citizen in the short term.

CLIMATE REFUGEES Most of the structures in Grand Bahama and the Abaco Islands of the Bahamas were no match against the fury of category 5 Hurricane Dorian when it

Commonwealth Secretary General Patricia Scotland at the Commonwealth Foreign Affairs Ministers Meeting (Photo courtesy Commonwealth of Nations)

pounded the Bahamas in September.

Extreme flooding, sea surges, high winds and lashing rain made hundreds of homes uninhabitable and completely destroyed Haitian shanty towns in those areas.

When the storm finally passed, around 70,000 were left homeless. Those lucky enough to have family and friends with a spare room managed to get a roof over their heads but others were forced to rely on overcrowded shelters in Nassau or leave the country entirely (heading to neighbouring Caribbean countries, the United States or Canada).

Suddenly these climate refugees weren’t just a Bahamian problem, but a global concern.

Commonwealth Secretary General Patricia Scotland visited Bahamian Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis in early October and took the opportunity to highlight the problem of hurricane evacuees, saying: “I believe this is a global challenge, and one of the issues which has been really important for us is to consider how climate change is making more climate refugees, and trying to deal with that by being able to create sustainability in each state to enable people to stay home.

“This isn’t just an issue for the Bahamas. This unfortunately is a global issue. Every country is going to have to think together as to how we do this.”

For small Caribbean islands, infrastructure, health and housing are already overburdened by rising populations. Extreme weather events do not cause these problems, they exacerbate them. Enabling climate

refugees to stay in their home countries is the work of decades and must occur year-round, rather than in the immediate aftermath of headlinehitting events that draw attention in the short-term but quickly fall out of focus.

The World Bank estimates that climate change could force over 140 million people to migrate by 2050 and termed it “a looming human crisis”.

But the prediction is not entirely dire.

The Bank also predicts that “robust development planning at the country level” could reduce this figure by as much as 80 per cent, or more than 100 million people.

Robust development planning requires resources, however. While Small Island Developing States are among the most vulnerable to environmental risk, they are also the least financially equipped to deal

“One of the issues which has been really important for us is to consider how climate change is making more climate refugees” - Commonwealth Secretary General Patricia Scotland

with those risks. External development financing, combined with clear longterm strategising, is key. Saint Lucia has made strides in this area with a 10-year National Adaptation Plan which runs until 2028 and addresses infrastructure and spatial planning deficiencies. The country also recently became the first in the region to partner with the World Economic Forum to develop a Country Financing Roadmap to help meet its Sustainable Development Goals.

Addressing the climate refugee crisis is a battle that must be fought on two fronts. In-country planning is vital but the reality is that, for coastal communities and low-lying islands, fleeing across a border is sometimes the only option, at least in the shortterm. Each country has its own legal definition of what constitutes a legitimate asylum seeker but these rarely take into account people displaced due to weather. Environmental migrants do not enjoy the same protections and rights as victims of war or political unrest – partly because climate change is a controversial and complicated topic, partly because the political climate is shifting to protectionism and borders becoming more rigid. Discussions at the United Nations and other global bodies frequently touch on climate migrants but, as evidenced by the furore over Dorian-displaced Bahamians trying to obtain entry to the United States, little progress has been made. As each hurricane season brings more and more category 5 wrecking balls, international inertia is no longer acceptable.

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DESTINATION WEDDINGS

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BAD ROMANCE: Weddings and honeymoons dominate St Lucia’s tourism but is it time to shake up the matrimony market?

Continued from page 2

have been turning to more and more outrageous offerings to keep couples interested. Getting down on one knee to propose is now apparently passé as couples pop the question on mountains, with wild animals and in the ocean.

The craze for underwater weddings turned tragic recently when a Louisiana man drowned trying to propose to his girlfriend while free-diving in Tasmania.

Capturing the next wave of romance travellers isn’t just about gimmicks. For Emmanuel, it’s about planning ahead.

“Our brand ethos is to build on what we have and accentuate it. Our strategy is to research and see where the trends are going, to be very nimble and very flexible. We continue to monitor the market.” Latest data from the SLTA shows that festivals and other events are becoming an increasing draw for visitors and Emmanuel wants to encourage crossover with the romantic market through events such as Creole Heritage Month, Carnival and even sporting activities.

“We know we cannot just keep people coming for romance, so there is a strong push to build up things around this. We have a number of traditional, grassroots activities. We are saying: ‘Come to Saint Lucia and experience it our way.’”

Beach weddings continue to be popular in Saint Lucia (Photo courtesy the Caribbean Tourism Organisation)

experiences, as couples seek to maximise their down time by taking trips, or relaxing in a spa before the big day.

“We are pushing soft adventures, experiences, wellness and events and festivals along with the romance market,” says Emmanuel.

But those niches are markets in their own right, and usually cater to tourists with smaller budgets who risk being sidelined in favour of couples. Traveller demographics are shifting rapidly. The younger generation is now travelling to immerse themselves in a destination, shunning big name resorts in favour of Airbnb, opting for cultural experiences and sharing their trips with a wide social media audience. While these tourists may not bring in as much per trip as the average honeymooner, there is a greater likelihood of them becoming repeat visitors, they are powerful marketing tools in their own right and they arguably contribute more to a destination by interacting with local communities.

Just as general traveller demographics shift, so too do marital trends. Data from the Pew Research shows that Americans are walking up the aisle later in life with the average age at first marriage hitting 30 for men and 28 for women in 2018.

While marriage rates decline worldwide, cohabiting is on the rise as couples favour less conventional living arrangements.

The lucrative LGBTQ community is also a powerhouse in this niche. More likely than straight couples to be childfree, these travellers generally have more disposable income and leisure time – making them a market ripe

for the picking. The World Tourism Organization estimates that LGBTQ tourism is worth more than US$ 140bn worldwide. But the Caribbean has a troubled history with this market. Many destinations, including Saint Lucia, still criminalise male sexual relations.

Emmanuel does not believe this has discouraged same-sex couples from visiting, however, saying: “It may not be as open as some other parts of the world but I do not think Saint Lucia is missing out [on this market]. There is nothing stopping same-sex couples from coming to Saint Lucia and walking down the street, being on the beach or going to our festivals. They come all the time.”

And, as for same-sex wedding ceremonies, he says this is something the SLTA will accommodate when and if they become legalised in the country.

“Once the time is right and society allows it, we will have no difficulty marketing that. We ensure we are always ready to adapt to changes.”

THE MARKET EVOLVES Romance isn’t going anywhere. There will always be lovers wanting the perfect backdrop to celebrate their union. The worry is that the solidity of the market may give a false sense of security to tourism stakeholders who haven’t revamped the formula in decades.

Tourism is an ever-changing business and the romance niche is not immune to upheaval. Every island in the Caribbean can promise beaches and sunshine making it a fiercely competitive segment.

As competition heats up, some operators

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