Economic Development Report: Baltimore, MD by Stephen Brown

!"#$%&'()*+,& - ' . / &0 0 1 & Stephen Brown

Table of Contents Introduction......................................................................................................................................3 Background and Historic Info..........................................................................................................4 Economic Structure..........................................................................................................................6 Economic Base Analysis..................................................................................................................7 Export Base Multiplier ..................................................................................................................10 Industry Projections.......................................................................................................................10 Dependence on Large Companies.................................................................................................10 Shift Share Analysis......................................................................................................................10 Health of the economy...................................................................................................................11 Social and Demographic Characteristics.......................................................................................12 Labor Market Analysis..................................................................................................................18 Labor Supply.................................................................................................................................18 Labor Demand...............................................................................................................................19 Comparing Supply and Demand....................................................................................................20 Proposed Project and Impact Analysis..........................................................................................22 Policy Recommendations..............................................................................................................24 Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................25 Bibliography..................................................................................................................................26 Appendices.....................................................................................................................................27

Figures and Tables Figures 1, 2, 3...................................................................................................................................4 Table 1 Population Growth Comparison.........................................................................................5 Table 2 Populations of Political Jurisdictions within the Baltimore-Towson MSA........................5 Table 3 Economic Structure.............................................................................................................6 Table 4 Location Quotients for Two Digit NAICS Codes................................................................8 Table 5 Age and Gender Distribution............................................................................................14 Table 6 Race Distribution..............................................................................................................15 Table 7 Educational Attainment....................................................................................................16 Table 8 Income Distribution..........................................................................................................17 Table 9 Cost Benefit Analysis of Proposed WWTOD....................................................................23

!"#$%&'(#)%"* The Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is located in the state of Maryland on the East-Coast of the United States of America. Located about 40 miles northeast of Washington D.C. (Encyclopedia Britannica 2011), the MSA is the largest economic center in the state of Maryland. It occupies 2,601.48 square miles of land, and is home to a population of 2,710,489 people (US Census Bureau 2011). The MSA is comprised of seven political jurisdictions; Baltimore City, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County, Howard County, and Queen Anneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s County (United States Department of Labor 2011). This report begins by discussing the early settlement of the region and the birth of Baltimore City's economy; the foundation for the MSA that has grown to encompass not only the City of Baltimore, but six nearby counties as well (U.S. Census Bureau 2011). The economic history presented here will outline Baltimore's strong beginnings as a bustling seaport and manufacturing hub, and continue with a discussion of the modern industries that have eclipsed manufacturing and trade to place Baltimore-Towson at the forefront of healthcare, technology, and education. The unexpected consequences of this industrial revision, such as poverty, unemployment, and economic destruction will be explored via discussion of the inability of the population to meet the demands of the fast-growing, progressive establishments that compose much of the MSA's economic base. Finally, policy recommendations that address future growth of the economy and population will be offered

!"#$%&'()*+")*+,-./'&-#+0#')'1-#+2)3'&1"/-') Baltimore-Towson is situated 40 miles northeast of Washington D.C., and 15 miles above the Chesapeake Bay, at the head of the Patapsco River Estuary (Encyclopedia Britannica 2011). It occupies 2,601.48 of Maryland's total 9,707.24 square mile land area (US Census Bureau 2011). The MSA population is 2,710,489 people; more than half of the state's total population; 5,296,544 (US Census Bureau 2011). The elevation of the region ranges from 0 to 148 feet above sea-level. The City of Baltimore surrounds a large natural harbor, and lies on the fall line where the foothills of the Piedmont Region give way to the coastal plains of the Tidewater; its climate is mild, and its ground is fertile. (Baltimore: History - City Founded on Tobacco-Centered Economy, Radical Politics Gain Popularity 2009). The Baltimore region’s earliest known inhabitants were the Susquehannock Indians. The area was explored by John Smith in the early 17th century, and settled by European immigrants in the year 1661 (EBSCO Publishing Service Selection Page 2011). Baltimore was established as a town in 1729, at which time it served as a port for the shipping of tobacco and grain (Baltimore: History - City Founded on Tobacco-Centered Economy, Radical Politics Gain Popularity 2009). During the American Revolution, the City functioned as an important shipbuilding center and seaport; it was the launch-point for the U.S. Navy’s first ship, The Constellation, in 1797. The City of Baltimore seceded from Baltimore County in 1851, and became Maryland’s only independent city (EBSCO Publishing Service Selection Page 2011).

Figure 1: Map of East Coast of United States of America

Figure 2: Map of Maryland Counties

Figure 3: Outline of

Baltimore MSA The Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area, originally the Baltimore Standard Metropolitan Area, initially consisted of Baltimore County, Baltimore City, and Anne Arundel County. In 1960, the Metropolitan Area grew to include Carroll and Howard Counties; 1981 saw the addition of Harford County; and in 1983, Queen Anne’s County completed the MSA. After the 2000 U.S. Census, the area was renamed the Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area (U.S. Census Bureau 2011). Figures 1-3 give a clear indication of the location of the State of Maryland, Baltimore City, and the boundaries of the seven municipalities that constitute the Baltimore-Towson MSA.

Baltimore’s economic history is dominated by steel manufacturers and oil refineries. The area around the river developed as a major shipping point, now called the Inner Harbor, and for over three centuries, the Baltimore-Ohio Railroad accommodated extensive shipping and trade, both on land and at sea. Baltimore experienced remarkable industrial growth through the first half of the 20th century. After World War II, however, the population and the health of the economy began to decline. Today, the city still serves as a major rail, road, sea, and air port and

In 2010, the population of the Baltimore-Towson MSA was 2,710,489. This was an increase of 157,495 people, or 6.2% from the 2000 population of 2,552,994. Although the MSA showed population growth of over 150,000 people (6.2%), the region grew at a much slower rate than both the state (9.0%) and the country (9.7%). Interestingly, although the total population of the MSA grew, the population of Baltimore City shrank by nearly 25,000 people. The populations of the United States, the state of Maryland, the Baltimore-Towson MSA, as well as the populations of the six counties and one city that comprise the MSA are displayed in the tables 1 and 2 below. 1,2,3

Table 1: Population Growth Comparison

! Population 2000 Population 2010 # Change 20002010 % Change 20002010

United States1 281,424,602 308,745,538

State of Maryland1 5,296,544 5,773,552

Baltimore-Towson MSA 2 2,552,994 2,710,489

+27,320,936

+477,008

+157,495

9.7%

9.0%

6.2%

Table 2: Populations of Political Jurisdictions Within the Baltimore-Towson MSA

Jurisdiction 1 Anne Arundel Baltimore City 3 Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard Queen Anneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

Population 2000 Population 2010 489,664 537,656 651,154 626,664 754,308 805,029 150,897 167,134 218,590 244,826 247,849 287,085 40,560 47,798

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2011 Source: Diversity Data 2011 3 Source: City of Baltimore 2010 2

% Change 9.8% -3.8% 6.7% 10.8% 12.0% 15.8% 17.8%

# Change 47,992 -24,490 50,721 16,237 26,236 39,236 7,238

+(%"%,)(*-#$'(#'$.* The Baltimore-Towson MSA has a diverse economy with great potential for growth. Table 3, below, 4 uses the 2008 NAICS County Business Patterns data to show the MSA's total employment by industry in both absolute numbers and percentage of total local employment. Table 3: Economic Structure Baltimore-Towson MSA NAICS Code

Industry

2008 Employment

2008 Percent of Total Local Employment

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

373

0.0332%

Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extraction

509

0.0454%

Utilities

6,182

0.5510%

Construction

82,715

7.3726%

31-33

Manufacturing

66,829

5.9567%

Wholesale Trade

55,167

4.9172%

44-45

Retail Trade

140,597

12.5318%

48-49

Transportation and Warehousing

38,751

3.4540%

Information

26,208

2.3360%

Finance and Insurance

62,126

5.5375%

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

21,606

1.9258%

Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services

104,159

9.2840%

Management of Companies and Enterprises

24,516

2.1852%

Administrative, Support, & Waste Management & Remediation Services

82,042

7.3126%

Educational Services

52,473

4.6771%

Health Care and Social Assistance

179,357

15.9866%

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

20,389

1.8173%

Accommodation and Food Services

101,922

9.0846%

Other Services (except Public Administration)

55,874

4.9802%

Unclassified

125

0.0111%

1,121,920

100%

Total Employment

Proportional Distribution Method, using Three-Digit NAICS codes was applied in order to estimate numbers for which a range was provided.

Some of the most successful sectors of the MSAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy in 2008 are Retail Trade, which makes accounts for 12.53% (140,597 employees) of the economy, and Healthcare and Social Assistance, which comprises 15.99% (179,357 employees) of the economy. The region also has more than its share of jobs in the Education; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; and Construction industries. Of these industries, that employ large numbers of Baltimore-Towson's workforce, most are concentrated in sectors that require high levels of education Although not presented here, the three- and four-digit NAICS codes, the subdivisions of the major industries show that within the largest sectors in this economy, there are sub-sectors that hire greater numbers of workers than others. It seems that firms in Baltimore-Towson tend to employ workers with either very high levels of education, or require very few professional skills. For example, within the Retail Trade sector, concentrations trend toward low-skill jobs such as food and beverage stores, clothing stores, and general merchandise stores; while in the Education; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industry, the majority of workers are grouped in the legal, engineering, and computer systems design categories. Economic Base Analysis The Economic Base Theory assumes that a local economy is divisible into two sectors: basic and non-basic. Basic sectors are composed of industries that employ a greater percentage of their regional workforce that the national average, implying regional specialization in these industries. Goods and services from the basic industry are often exported to external markets, which means that they produce revenue from both local sources and from regions outside the chosen MSA. The non-basic sector is composed of industries that either import or use locally the goods and services produced. This theory states that local firms in the basic sector are strongest; due to the fact that even if there is some decline in the local economy, businesses that are able rely on external markets will survive. Industry specialization is determined using the Location Quotient (LQ) method. Location Quotients are used to identify specialized industries within the region as they compare to the performance of identical markets in another economy, in this case that of the nation. Industries with an LQ greater than 1 have higher-than-average employment and are assumed to export their goods and services to external markets. Industries with an LQ less than 1 have lower-thanaverage employment, and are most likely not meeting the local demand for a specific good or service. Industries with an LQ equal to 1 meet the local demand for a product or service exactly. The industries that cater primarily to local demand, and those that rely on external markets can be determined by comparing the Baltimore-Towson MSAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total employment numbers to national figures. Table 4, on the next page, shows the LQ for each industry at the two-digit NAICS level.

Table 4: Location Quotients for 2-Digit NAICS Codes Baltimore-Towson MSA 2008 Percent of !"#$%& Employment Total Local Industry $'()& 2008 Employment "*+,-./0.+)1&2'+)30+41&2,35,6*& 11 373 0.0332% 76(&8.60,6*& 9,6,6*1&:.7++4,6*1&76(&;,/& 21 509 0.0454% 76(&<73&=>0+7-0,'6& ?0,/,0,)3& 22 6,182 0.5510% $'630+.-0,'6& 23 82,715 7.3726% 976.@7-0.+,6*& 31-33 66,829 5.9567% A5'/)37/)&B+7()& 42 55,167 4.9172% C)07,/&B+7()& 44-45 140,597 12.5318% B+763D'+070,'6&76(& 48-49 38,751 3.4540% A7+)5'.3,6*& #6@'+E70,'6& 51 26,208 2.3360% 2,676-)&76(&#63.+76-)& 52 62,126 5.5375% C)7/&=3070)&76(&C)607/&76(& 53 21,606 1.9258% F)73,6*& G+'@)33,'67/1&%-,)60,@,-1&76(& 54 104,159 9.2840% B)-56,-7/&%)+H,-)3& 9767*)E)60&'@&$'ED76,)3& 55 24,516 2.1852% 76(&=60)+D+,3)3& "(E,6,30+70,H)1&%.DD'+01&I& A730)&9767*)E)60&I& 56 82,042 7.3126% C)E)(,70,'6&%)+H,-)3& =(.-70,'67/&%)+H,-)3& 61 52,473 4.6771% 8)7/05&$7+)&76(&%'-,7/& 62 179,357 15.9866% "33,3076-)& "+031&=60)+07,6E)601&76(& 71 20,389 1.8173% C)-+)70,'6& "--'EE'(70,'6&76(&2''(& 72 101,922 9.0846% %)+H,-)3& ;05)+&%)+H,-)3&J)>-)D0&G.K/,-& 81 55,874 4.9802% "(E,6,30+70,'6L& ?6-/733,@,)(& 99 125 0.0111% B'07/&=ED/'4E)60& 1,121,920 100%

Local LQ 2008 0.24 0.09 1.04 1.27 0.55 0.96 0.97 0.94 0.82 1.03 1.06 1.40 0.91 0.86 1.80 1.12 1.06 0.92 1.10 0.88 1.00

In Baltimore-Towson, in 2008, three industries stood out as very specialized, and therefore most important to the MSA's economy. Industries with above-average levels of specialization not only drive the economy, but protect it in times of economic hardship as well. Arranged by importance from highest- to lowest-level of specialization, these important industries are Educational Services (LQ 1.80); Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (LQ1.40); and Construction (LQ 1.27). The six other industries with LQs greater than 1 were: Utilities; Finance and Insurance; Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing; Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation; and Other Services (Excluding Public Administration). The variety of specialized industries makes BaltimoreTowson's economic base fairly diversified, although of these nine basic industries, four had LQs below 1.1, meaning that external markets in these industries contribute very little to the MSA's economy as a whole. The industries that will likely thrive, even in the event of a national economic downturn are Education, Healthcare, Construction, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Three of these four rely on employees who have attained advanced education. Because the Construction industry relies heavily on the economy, and therefore its LQ is most likely lower in 2011, it is constantly subject to unstable external conditions. The other three, however, will likely remain successful due to Baltimoreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s reputation as an enclave of well-educated professionals. The MSA's non-basic sector is composed of the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting; Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction; Manufacturing; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation and Warehousing; Information; Management of Companies and Enterprises; Administrative, Support, Waste Management, and Remediation Services; Accommodation and Food Services; and Unclassified industries. Although the manufacturing industry in the nation is in progressive decline, it is still surprising that Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade were not in Baltimore-Towson's basic sector in 2008. Baltimoreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s early success relied primarily on its harbor for importing and exporting goods. The fact that neither of these industries is likely supplying external markets could be one factor that has contributed to the economic decline of the city in decades prior. The fact that the MSA has undergone a shift from reliance on low-skill jobs to dependence on high-skill jobs has left much of the population unemployed and in poverty. While the change in basic industries has likely expanded revenue streams for the MSA as a whole, many of its residents may not be impressed.

Export Base Multiplier The Export Base Employment Multiplier provides insight as to the number of non-basic jobs created by each job in a basic industry. Baltimore-Towson has an Export Base Employment Multiplier of 11.273. In 2008, there were 1,121,920 jobs in the Baltimore-Towson MSA. 99,525 of these jobs were considered basic employment. Using the Export Base Multiplier, projections for yearly change in regional employment can be made; based on 2008 data, every one job created in the basic sector, will result in the creation of 10.273 jobs in the non-basic sector. Industry Projections Based on Jay Bermanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (2005) employment projections for 2014, the Baltimore-Towson MSA will see growth in all but one of its basic industries; the Utilities sector, which is headed for an annual reduction of six jobs. Employment in all other basic sectors is projected to grow steadily. Each year until 2014, employment in the basic sector will have increased by approximately 11,944 jobs; 11950 jobs created annually, and 6 jobs lost. The total number of jobs created in the basic sectors by 2014 is estimated to be 71,702, while 36 employees in the Utilities sector will be left to find another source of income. The largest projected growth rate is in the Educational Services and the Health Care and Social Assistance sectors, in which employment will increase by 1,522 and 4,843 jobs, respectively. Dependence on Large Companies Out of 67,399 total establishments, 151 employ more than 500 people. Of these, only 57 employ more than 1000. The industries that dominate the local economy, based on two-digit NAICS data are Accommodation and Food Services, which provides 101,922 jobs; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, which provides 104,159 jobs; Retail Trade, which provides 140,597 jobs; and Health Care and Social Assistance, which employs the largest number of workers in Baltimore-Towson - 179,357 people Shift Share Analysis Compared to the nation's economic growth, Baltimore-Towsonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future looks bleak. Assuming a national growth rate of 9%, employment in the nation increased by 9% between 1999 and 2008. The total National Growth Effect was 91,560; the total Industry Mix Effect was 29,812; and the total Regional Shares Effect for Baltimore-Towson was the loss of 27,265 jobs over the ten year period. The industries that experienced the highest National Growth were Educational Services, and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, which experienced growth of 29% and 26%, respectively. The Baltimore-Towson saw the most growth in Educational Services, with a total of 7,273 jobs created, and Construction, which grew by 8,102 jobs. The Administrative, Support, and Waste Management and Remediation Services sector took the hardest hit, losing almost 18,000 jobs, followed closely by Management of Companies and Enterprises, which lost 11,600 jobs. The MSA's Shift Share Total growth was 94,146 jobs, primarily in the basic sectors. Health Care and Social Assistance was the only basic sector to experience significant job loss. Overall,

Baltimore-Towson’s basic industries are competitive when compared to the same industries at a national scale, however most of the non-basic industries present no competition. Health of the Economy Based on this analysis and earlier research, it seems Baltimore-Towson’s economy is not completely healthy. With the exception of jobs that require advanced degrees, employment prospects are slim. In the current economic climate, there is little that any government at any level can do to improve the financial conditions of the MSA. However, in the future the counties that comprise the MSA should work with economic developers towards re-establishing Baltimore as a competitive seaport. Because the city’s Inner Harbor is already an attraction, the region can capitalize on tourism to stimulate some sectors of the economy, and attempt to recruit large corporations to employ more of the region’s residents, as well as attract new ones. The MSA, located so nearby the nation’s capital, should witness the same kind of population and employment growth that Northern Virginia has seen over the past few decades.

-%()/0*/"&*1.,%2$/34)(*54/$/(#.$)6#)(6* According to data from the 2010 U.S. Census, and the 2010 American Community Survey, the demographic characteristics of the Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area are as follow5: The total population of the MSA is 2,710,489. 1,304,960 (48.1%) are male, and 1,405,529 (51.9%) are female, which represent a fairly equal distribution. The median age of the entire population is 38.1. the median age for males is 36.6, and for females, 39.4 (U.S. Census Bureau 2010). Also, in all seven jurisdictions, the median age for females is higher than for males. Careers in Education and Healthcare tend to attract females, as teachers, doctors, or nurses; thus it is possible that the greater population and higher age of the female population is filling these jobs. More information on age and gender can be found in table 5, which follows this discussion. Of the MSA's total population, 1,684,436 people (62.1% of the population) are White; 778,879 people (28.7% of the population) are Black or African American; and 179,518 people (6.7% of the population) are Other Races. 67,656 people (2.5% of the population) claim Two or More Races. The racial distribution in the suburban counties, compared to that in Baltimore City is even more skewed towards white folks (U.S. Census Bureau 2010). More information on the racial distribution of the MSA can be found in table 6, which follows this discussion. The educational attainment of the 2,091,889 people over 18, (77.2% of population) is as follows: of the population between ages 18 and 24, 43% have some college education or an Associates Degree, and 13% have a Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Degree or higher. Of the population 25 years of age and over, 87.7% have at least a High School Degree, 35.1% have a Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Degree or higher, with 15.2% of the surveyed population having Graduate or Professional Degrees (U.S. Census Bureau 2010). More information on the educational attainment of the population can be found in table 7, which follows this discussion. The income distribution of the population is broken down by household; 1,022,553 households are reported. Of these, 66,283 households (6.5%) have an annual income of less than $10,000; 39,688 households (3.9%) have an annual income between $10,000 and $14,999; 78,096 households (7.6%) have an annual income between $15,000 and $24,999; 85,998 households (8.4%) have an annual income between $25,000 and $34,999; 120,957 households (11.8%) have an annual income between $35,000 and $49,999; 188,682 households (18.5%) have an annual income between $50,000 and $74,999; 132,722 households (13%) have an annual income between $75,000 and $99,999; 171,150 households (16.7%) have an annual income between $100,000 and $149,999; 72,492 households (7.1%) have an annual income between $150,000 and $199,999; and 66,485 households (6.5%) have an annual income of more than $200,000. The median annual household income is $64,812, and the average household income is $84,348 (U.S. Census Bureau 2010). More information on income distribution can be found in table 8, which follows this discussion. The percentage of families and people whose income in the past 12 months is below the poverty level is as follows: 7.6% of all families, and 11% of all people fell below the poverty line. 14.9% of people under 18 years of age, and 9.9% of people 18 years and older fell below the poverty line. Interestingly, 21.8% of female headed households with no husband present were below the poverty level, while only 2.7% of married couple families were below the poverty line. More information on poverty can be found in table 8, which follows this discussion. 5

Tables containing detailed information are on the pages following the discussion.

The full retirement age for people born before 1942 is approximately 65 years of age. It is safe to assume that about 12.6% of the total population is retired, because they are above 65 years of age. It is also safe to assume that approximately 18.9% of the population is unemployed due to their being 15 years of age and below. This means that 31.5% of the total population likely does not have a steady job that contributes to their annual income. Also, according to the census data, 1,472,632 people (68%) of the population 16 years of age and older are part of the labor force. This verifies the previous assumptions that approximately 31.5% of the population is unemployed. Of those people over 18 years of age that are employed, an average of about 89% have a high school education or better, and an average of 32.4% have a Bachelor’s Degree or higher. The median annual income for a High School graduate with no college is $31,704, and for those with a Bachelor’s or Graduate Degree, $55,105 and $74,325, respectively. For a person with less than a high school degree, the average annual income is $21,093. The level of education of the population in the Baltimore-Towson MSA, strangely, does not directly correspond to the income distribution. 18% of the households in the MSA’s population have an annual income below $25,000. 43.3% of the population have an income of $75,000 or higher. The level of household income reflects. Assuming that two working adults are present in most households, a household income above $75,000 is right in line with the numbers. Also, with 25.6% of the population over 18 years of age having less than a high school education, the 18% of households with an income less than $25,000 appropriately reflects the census data. Only 12.6% of the population is over 65, leaving 87.4% as current or future workers. This means a stable work force for the future, of which 89% has attained at least a High School education, with less than half (32.4% of the population) attaining at least a Bachelor’s Degree. The MSA’s basic employment consists mostly of jobs in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, Educational Services, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Construction industries. If demographic estimates concerning education are correct and remain at similar levels over the next decade, the MSA will likely see great population growth to fill the high-skill jobs that require educational attainment of a Bachelor’s, Graduate, or Professional Degree. The Construction industry is the only major basic employer that does not require higher education. It is possible that the income levels of the MSA will become more concentrated in the ranges above $50,000 and below $35,000 as the salaries related to the major industries would suggest.

Table 5: Age and Gender Distribution 2010 Demographic Profile Data: Baltimore-Towson MSA Age and Gender of Population Percent Subject Number Percent Subject 1

Subject Total population Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over Median age in years

Number 2,710,489

100

Male

1,304,960

48.1

167,899 168,772 174,832 188,664 189,981 190,596 171,649 171,318 191,192 215,102 208,451 178,546 150,976 107,362 75,685 60,577 49,881

6.2 6.2 6.5 7 7 7 6.3 6.3 7.1 7.9 7.7 6.6 5.6 4 2.8 2.2 1.8

85,420 86,185 88,943 96,332 95,270 92,749 83,220 81,866 91,946 103,581 99,974 85,062 71,333 49,459 33,697 25,421 19,149

3.2 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.7

49,006

1.8

Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over Median age in years

15,353

0.6

38.1

36.6

Female Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over Median age in years

Number

Percent

1,405,529

51.9

82,479 82,587 85,889 92,332 94,711 97,847 88,429 89,452 99,246 111,521 108,477 93,484 79,643 57,903 41,988 35,156 30,732

3 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.7 4.1 4 3.4 2.9 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.1

33,653

1.2

39.4

15 Table 6: Race Distribution

2010 Demographic Profile Data: Baltimore-Towson MSA Race of Population2 RACE Number Percent Total population 2,710,489 100 One Race 2,642,833 97.5 White 1,684,436 62.1 Black or African American 778,879 28.7 American Indian and Alaska Native 8,517 0.3 Asian 122,911 4.5 Asian Indian 32,193 1.2 Chinese 22,178 0.8 Filipino 16,541 0.6 Japanese 2,185 0.1 Korean 25,127 0.9 Vietnamese 6,443 0.2 Other Asian 18,244 0.7 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific 1,467 0.1 Islander Native Hawaiian 350 0 Guamanian or Chamorro 634 0 Samoan 138 0 Other Pacific Islander 345 0 Some Other Race 46,623 1.7 Two or More Races (most commonly 67,656 2.5 reported) White; American Indian and Alaska 7,455 0.3 Native White; Asian 14,391 0.5 White; Black or African American 20,850 0.8 White; Some Other Race 5,089 0.2

Table 7: Educational Attainment

Baltimore-Towson MSA Educational Attainment3 Total Subject Estimate Population 18 to 24 years 268,727 Less than high school graduate 13.30% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 30.70% Some college or associate's degree 43.00% Bachelor's degree or higher 13.10% Population 25 years and over 1,823,162 Less than 9th grade 4.20% 9th to 12th grade, no diploma 8.10% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 26.20% Some college, no degree 20.20% Associate's degree 6.20% Bachelor's degree 19.90% Graduate or professional degree 15.20% Percent high school graduate or higher 87.70% Percent bachelor's degree or higher 35.10% Population 25 to 34 years 364,709 High school graduate or higher 89.20% Bachelor's degree or higher 39.20% Population 35 to 44 years 360,647 High school graduate or higher 91.50% Bachelor's degree or higher 39.50% Population 45 to 64 years 753,908 High school graduate or higher 89.90% Bachelor's degree or higher 35.50% Population 65 years and over 343,898 High school graduate or higher 77.40% Bachelor's degree or higher 25.40% MEDIAN EARNINGS IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2010 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) Population 25 years and over with earnings 43,539 Less than high school graduate 21,093 High school graduate (includes equivalency) 31,704 Some college or associate's degree 40,983 Bachelor's degree 55,105 Graduate or professional degree 74,325

Male Estimate 135,037 15.80% 31.90% 41.30% 11.00% 855,731 4.40% 8.70% 26.00% 19.80% 5.30% 20.00% 15.90% 86.90% 35.90% 177,841 87.00% 34.60% 173,125 90.00% 36.90% 361,230 88.80% 36.90% 143,535 78.40% 33.80%

Female Estimate 133,690 10.70% 29.40% 44.80% 15.10% 967,431 4.00% 7.60% 26.40% 20.60% 7.10% 19.80% 14.60% 88.40% 34.40% 186,868 91.30% 43.50% 187,522 92.90% 42.00% 392,678 90.90% 34.10% 200,363 76.60% 19.40%

50,825 25,047 36,484 47,382 67,087 91,407

38,632 16,777 28,098 35,504 48,245 61,827

Table 8: Income Distribution

Baltimore-Towson MSA Income Distribution Subject INCOME AND BENEFITS (IN 2010 INFLATIONADJUSTED DOLLARS) Total households Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 or more Median household income ($) Mean household income ($) PERCENTAGE OF FAMILIES AND PEOPLE WHOSE INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS IS BELOW THE POVERTY LEVEL All families With related children under 18 years With related children under 5 years only Married couple families With related children under 18 years With related children under 5 years only Families with female householder, no husband present With related children under 18 years With related children under 5 years only All people Under 18 years 18 years and over

Estimate

1,022,553 66,283 39,688 78,096 85,998 120,957 188,682 132,722 171,150 72,492 66,485 $64,812 $84,348

Percent

100% 6.50% 3.90% 7.60% 8.40% 11.80% 18.50% 13.00% 16.70% 7.10% 6.50%

7.60% 11.70% 12.10% 2.70% 3.20% 3.20% 21.80% 28.50% 35.00% 11.00% 14.90% 9.90%

!"#$%&'"%()*&+,"-./0/& Labor Supply Baltimore-Towson’s potential labor force consists of the entire population over the age of 16 that is not currently serving in the armed forces or in an institution. The estimated potential labor force is 2,165,411. The potential labor forces consists of 1,029,248 males, and 1,136,163 females. The estimated actual labor force in the MSA is 1,472,479 people; about 68% of the entire population 16 years of age or older. The actual labor force consists 1,472,632 people, of which 746,291 are males 16 and over, and 726,341 are females 16 and over (U.S. Census Bureau 2010). The most recent unemployment rate, according to FRED estimates for September 2011, is 7.6%. The unemployment rate has risen over the past five years. It climbed slowly from 2006 to 2008, at which time it was below 4%, but between 2008 and 2010, it reached its peak of almost 9%. Since 2010, the unemployment rate has dropped, but not nearly as steeply as it climbed previously (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2011). The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is defined as the percentage of the working population that is in the labor force. According to the 2010 U.S. Census data, the overall total Labor Force Participation Rate is estimated to be 91%. This number varies greatly however, when analyzed by the demographic characteristics of the labor force. The LFPR for males is 90.8%, and for females 91.5%. For Whites, the LFPR is 93%, for African Americans it is only 85.5%, for Asians the LFPR is 95.7% and for people of Hispanic or Latino Origin, the LFPR is 93.6%. For people between the ages of 16 and 64, the age group with the lowest LFPR is the 16 to 19 year olds – only 74.4%. People aged 20 to 24 see a 83.7% LFPR; people from 25 to 44 have an 91.8% LFPR; people between 45 and 54 have an LFPR of 93.1%, and people from age 55 to 64 have an LFPR of 94.2%. The LFPR also varies by level of education attained. For people with less than a High School Diploma, the LFPR is 82.3%. For those that did manage to graduate High School, the LFPR rises to 89%. For people who attended some college or were rewarded an Associate’s Degree, the LFPR is 92.8%; and for individuals with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher, the LFPR is 96.7% (American Community Survey 2011). According to the 2010 U.S. Census American Community Survey, approximately 84,988 people moved into the Baltimore-Towson MSA from within the state of Maryland. 54,124 people moved into the MSA from a different state, and 16,713 people moved into the MSA from abroad. The birth rate for the MSA in the past 12 months was 57 births for every 1000 women, with a total of 39,687 births total. The death rate for the state of Maryland is 818.00 per 100,000 people (LeDuc Media 2011), so it is safe to assume that the rate of mortality for the MSA is similar. There is a high rate of migration into the MSA, approximately 155,295 in the year preceding the survey. There are two possible reasons that these individuals may be moving into the MSA. The first is the proximity to Washington D.C., and the availability of jobs there, and the second is the growing sectors of the MSA’s economy that require high levels of education. A large percentage of the population of the MSA is does not have the education required to fill jobs in industries that require higher education, so these positions may be getting filled by people from outside it. (American Community Survey 2011).

The Baltimore-Towson MSA’s strengths, based on the labor supply, are many. One is the low rates of unemployment among people that have attended at least some college (7.2%) or have a Bachelor’s or higher degree (3.3%). Another is that the unemployment rates for labor force participants above the age of 25 are lower than the MSA total unemployment rate. A large portion of the labor force is between the ages of 25 and 54, meaning that they will most likely be participating in the labor force for 10 to 40 more years. A final strength is that the employment rates between males and females are very similar. There are about 20,000 fewer females than males in the labor force, but less than 10,000 fewer unemployed females, compared to males. Some weaknesses of the MSA are the very high unemployment rates for people under 24 years old, for African Americans, and for people with less than a college education. This suggests that there is very little job availability for under-educated workers, and that African Americans may not be receiving the education that they need to fill high-skill jobs.

! Labor Demand As of March, 2011, 1,255,700 people were employed in the Baltimore-Towson MSA. Going from the 2008 NAICS County Business Patterns data, there were 1,121,920 people employed in non-farm industries. The leading industries in the MSA are Construction; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; Health Care and Social Assistance; and Educational Services. The Construction industry employs 82,715 people; the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industry employs 104,159 people; the Health Care and Social Assistance industry employs 179,357 people, and the Educational Services industry employs 52,473 people. These are qualified as the leading industries in the MSA because they have high Location Quotients, meaning that they employ a higher percentage of the population than the national average. Furthermore, these industries provide high levels of income and will most likely stimulate the MSA’s economy by providing higher levels of income tax and selling comparatively higher priced goods and services to customers both inside and outside the MSA. In the construction industry, there are 7,244 total firms, most of which employ 1 to 9 people. The major sectors in this industry are Residential Building Construction, with a high number of firms that do Residential Remodeling; Specialty Trade Contractors; and Building Equipment Contractors. In order to become a contractor, one must typically acquire at least a Bachelor’s Degree, complete a licensing exam, and have the financial, marketing, and interpersonal skills necessary to build a successful business. The average wage for construction workers is about $900/week – close to $50,000/ year. The number of wage and salary jobs in the construction industry is expected to grow by 19% from 2008 to 2018. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics website, this industry has an average of about 90 job openings every month, and offers benefits, insurance and retirement plans. In the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industry, there are 9,218 firms, with over 8,000 employing fewer than 20 people. 6,000 of these employ only 1 to 4 people. The major sectors in this industry are Legal Services; Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services; Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services; Computer Systems Design and Related Services; and Management Consulting Services – each sector has more than 1,000 firms. The average income for this industry was $54,000 per year, but it fluctuated within the industry from Legal Services, which paid about $42,000/year to Architects and Engineers who were paid over $60,000/year. There were an average of about 650 job openings in this industry each month in 2011, and the industry offered benefits, insurance, and retirement plans.

Employment in this industry is projected to increase by 25% to 34% by 2018. In order to obtain a job in this sector, one must have at least a Bachelor’s Degree, but most employment requires a Master’s, Doctoral, or Professional Degree. The Health Care and Social Assistance has a total of 7,181 firms, over 6,000 of which employ between 1 and 19 people. 20,690 people were employed in Ambulatory Health Care Services, which include Ambulance Services, Physicians’ Offices, and Dentists’ Offices. Hospitals employed 65,446 people – 57,312 of which were employed in General Medical and Surgical Hospitals. 38,527 people were employed in Nursing and Residential Care Facilities; and 25,024 people were employed in the Social Assistance sector. Based on an average hourly compensation of $28.92, health care employees earn about $60,300 annually. The Health Care and Social Assistance industry saw about 540 job openings each month in 2011, and most jobs offer benefits, insurance and retirement plans. The projection for employment growth is 24% through 2018. This large growth can be attributed to the increasing number of aging individuals that require healthcare. In order to become a physician, dentist, or nurse, one must acquire a Bachelor’s Degree and then go on to medical or dental school, followed by an internship for several years. The Educational Services Industry had a total of 932 establishments in 2008, the majority of which employed between 1 and 99 people. Colleges, Universities and Professional Schools employed 32,246 people, and Elementary and Secondary Schools employed 10,785 people. Wages for instructors and administrators averaged out to about $79,000 annually. This industry had between 60 and 80 job openings per month, and offered benefits, insurance, and retirement plans. Wage and salary growth of 12% was projected for the 2008-2018 period. Education and training requirements range from a high school diploma for teacher assistants, to a doctoral degree in education administration for principals, college professors, and administrators. Comparing Supply and Demand There is a supply to demand mismatch of over 200,000 people between the total estimated number of people in the labor force, 1,472,479 and the current number of employed individuals, only 1,255,700. Most likely, this has occurred because of the high demand for individuals with high levels of education, but the lack of a qualified workforce. This claim is substantiated by the low unemployment rate for those with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher, and the high unemployment rate for those with less than an Associates Degree. (U.S. Census Bureau 2011) It is difficult to recommend bringing in more low-skill jobs to accommodate people who could not manage to graduate High School or attend some sort of college. Economic Development in the MSA should concentrate on increasing training and educational outlets for underprivileged individuals, and on encouraging the MSA as a tourist destination, which would open up jobs for under-educated workers, while still contributing to the region’s economy. Compared to the National unemployment rate of 6.9%, Baltimore-Towson’s 9% unemployment is high. However, when comparing educational attainment to unemployment, the numbers are fairly similar. Nationally, for people with less than a High School diploma, the unemployment rate is about 17%; for High School graduates, 12%; for those with some college or an Associate’s Degree, it is 9.3%; and for those with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher, it is about 5%. . This leads me to believe that the issue of under-educated and under-employed individuals is a problem that needs to be addressed systemically, not just in certain places. Policies should be

put in place that improve education for all children, and offer obtainable, affordable job-training or college for those without substantial financial resources. If I were to develop strategies for future economic development initiatives, I would focus first and foremost on encouraging the future population to obtain at least a High School diploma. With that as a foundation, options to attend trade schools, community colleges, or other training programs. I would also, on a much bigger scale, work towards spreading out clusters of highskill jobs, in order that situations such as Baltimoreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s do not spread. While it may be good for the economy to be specialized in high-skill jobs that create a lot of revenue, it is bad for the people who cannot, for one reason or another, fill those jobs. This kind of disparity creates poverty not only financially, but emotionally as well, and un-empowered people seldom climb the ladder of success.

!"#$#%&'(!"#)&*+(,-'((./$,*+(0-,12%3% ( (

The Westport Waterfront Transit Oriented Development (WWTOD) claims it will help minimize sprawl, generate $650 million in additional tax revenue by 2040, and create over 13,000 jobs: 4,000 temporary construction jobs, and 9,130 permanent jobs. The master plan for this development will meet LEED Platinum building standards, and the individual buildings will meet the LEED Silver standards. This 1.2 billion dollar Transit Oriented Development (TOD) was proposed to the City of Baltimore's Department of Transportation in 2008. Phase I of the WWTOD is scheduled for development between 2011 and 2015, followed by Phase II, which will begin in 2015 and be completed in 2020. The Westport Cost Benefit Analysis uses 2010 Dollars to estimate the monetary costs and economic impact of the project. Because value-ofmoney projections are only accurate to a certain extent, only Phase I of the development will be examined in this analysis. The Construction industry, as shown earlier, is already strong in the Baltimore-Towson MSA. It is among the economic base's strongest industries with a 2008 Location Quotient of 1.27 and a total of 82,715 employees. Creation of an additional 1,700 jobs in this sector, even though they are temporary, would definitely benefit the MSA's economy. Because construction jobs do not generally require high levels of education, this generous increase in employment opportunity could greatly benefit the large unemployed, undereducated population of Baltimore City. Phase I of the WWTOD will create 4,000 permanent jobs, 1,700 temporary construction jobs, and $1.8 billion dollars in economic output. The area most affected will be the neighborhoods that surround the WWTOD, that house 15,000 residents; 24% of which are living in poverty. Residents of these neighborhoods are projected to benefit by: filling 85 construction jobs and 198 permanent jobs. The available cost-benefit analysis was written by the developers of the WWTOD, but does not seem to have any implicit or explicit negative impacts. Based on the information presented in this paper, especially the data concerning educational attainment, poverty, income, and unemployment, I believe that the investment in the WWTOD will be a great benefit to the economy. The cost-benefit analysis I found does not go into great detail about the kinds of jobs outside the construction industry that will be created, but adding 13,130 jobs of any kind will be a great benefit to an MSA with 61,739 unemployed workers (U.S. Census Bureau 2011). This development makes great claims about its potential for job creation, economic benefits, and infrastructure improvements. If the results, and benefits to Baltimore are as magnificent as the cost-benefit analysis claims, the entire Baltimore-Towson MSA stands to benefit greatly from the WWTOD. Table 9, on the next page, outlines the great majority of the quantitative and qualitative costs and benefits available for the WWTOD.

All information from WWTOD Cost Benefit Analysis. STV, Inc, Redevelopment Economics, and CWS Consulting 2010

Table 9: Cost Benefit Analysis of Proposed WWTOD

Project

Cost

Benefits

MD 295 Improvements: 3 Bridges Replaced

$14,000,000

New bridges have an expected service life of 70 to 100 years. Over 40 years, this would save $3,401,887 compared to the costs of repairing the existing bridges.

Local Circulation and Safety Improvements and Transit Improvements

$19,720,000

Traffic accident reduction of 394 crashes over 20 years.

Bicycle and Pedestrian Improvements

$4,670,000

Westport will reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled by 40-45%, resulting in about $4,750 household savings, relative to the US average.

Rail Safety Improvements

$1,380,000

Pedestrian and bicyclist safety improved at railroad crossing. Fewer people hit by trains.

Total Project Cost

$39,770,000

Other Benefits

Total Economic Benefit: $448,110,219

Addition of 796 residencies, 130 of which will be made affordable to low-income Baltimoreans. Addition of 900,000 sq. ft. office space and 91,500 sq. ft. retail space that will provide 4,000 jobs "Knowledge Spillover Effect:" productivity increases are connected to urban density. Potential to recruit international businesses and exporting services: new businesses want to locate in mixed-use environments to appeal to the "creative class." Five international companies in Baltimore have already been attracted by mixed-use waterfront locations. Estimated property value increase of $52.9 million over 20 years for the WWTOD community. 4.8 to 5.4 fewer metric tons of CO2 spewed into atmosphere by residents and employees of the WWTOD, as compared to regional averages. $448 Million in total net benefits as compared to $39.8 in total required funding.

!"#$%&'()%"**)+,-.$"+/' Given the state of Baltimore-Towson's socioeconomic situation; the high unemployment rate that results from a mismatch between industry demand and the low educational attainment of a large portion of the population, future policies should be considered for increasing education levels and bringing more lower-skill industries into the basic sector. Without addressing the needs of the existing population, the unemployment and poverty rates will continue to rise. The following policy recommendations are aimed at providing more opportunity for children and adults to attain the knowledge and skills essential for gaining employment in Baltimore-Towson's professional economy; and increasing employment opportunity for those whose situations may not facilitate higher education. The focus is primarily on accommodating the unemployed and under-educated adult population; and secondarily on ensuring that no one is denied the opportunity to gain skills that will assist in career placement and development. Policy Recommendation #1: Work for all municipal road improvement projects, whether construction of new thoroughfares or rehabilitation of existing roads, bridges, or sidewalks, should utilize local firms that primarily employ residents of the jurisdiction in which they are to be completed. Preference should be given to firms that offer apprenticeships or training programs. Policy Recommendation #2: Public Housing developments should be reconstructed into Transit Oriented Developments; mixed-use, mixed-income communities with at least 50% of homes made affordable through subsidies or affordable rental/mortgage rates. TODs should work to recruit businesses that employ large numbers of people with limited skill sets. Some example business types are grocery stores, hotels, and restaurants. Preference should be given to residents of the community in which businesses are placed. Policy Recommendation #3: Job training and educational programs should be made available through county or city funded community centers. Attendance fee should be determined by household income on a sliding scale. These programs should work with nearby businesses and corporations to determine the local demand for job-skills and base curricula on demand in growing industries. Policy Recommendation #4: The counties within the MSA should include within their Capital Improvement Plans redevelopment of at least two schools per year. Development standards should conform to LEED requirements. These policies address employment and education either together or separately. Policy 1 will ensure that county or city money paid to workers stays in the local economy. By giving preference to companies that offer apprenticeships, improvements can be done more quickly, and cost less due to free manpower. Apprentices will develop skill sets in Construction, a basic industry, and have more to offer when seeking future employment. Policy 2 serves to improve the quality of life for low-income residents and provide opportunities for employment in another basic industry, Accommodation and Food Services. TODs will also allow greater access to jobs outside the development by placing public transit options near people who rely on them. Policy 3

25 is focused on building skills that are in high demand in the Baltimore-Towson MSA. By partnering with regional firms, learning centers can ensure that residents are gaining skills for local employment, and possibly offer students career options upon graduation. Policy 4 will benefit the economy in a number of ways. First, it will increase Construction jobs that employ undereducated workers. It will also reduce municipal spending on utility costs. Finally, it will benefit the environment, and provide more attractive places of learning.

!"#$%&'("#! Baltimore-Towson's MSA is well grounded in technology, professional services, healthcare, and education industries. What it lacks, however, are opportunities to employ the people that actually live there. Expanding educational opportunities, providing accessible, affordable job training, and striving to employ local firms for all possible work should be the focus of economic developers in the years to come.

!"#$"%&'()*+, 1. American Community Survey. U.S. Census Bureau. 2011. www.census.gov/acs (accessed 2011). 2. Berman, Jay. ""Industry Output and Employment Projections to 2013." Monthly Labor Review. November 2005. www.bos.gov/opub/mlr/2005/11/art4full.pdf (accessed September 20, 2011). 3. City Data. Baltimore: History - City Founded on Tobacco-Centered Economy, Radical Politics Gain Popularity. 2009. http://www.city-data.com/us-cities/The-South/BaltimoreHistory.html (accessed September 10, 2011). 4. City of Baltimore. 2010 Census Baltimore. 2010. http://www.baltimorecity.gov/Government/AgenciesDepartments/Planning/2010Census/ 2010CensusData.asp (accessed September 10, 2011). 5. Diversity Data. Baltimore-Towson, MD. 2011. http://diversitydata.sph.harvard.edu/Data/Profiles/Show.aspx?loc=148 (accessed September 10, 2011). 6. EBSCO Publishing Service Selection Page. EBSCOhost: Baltimore. 2011. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=funk&AN=BA018200&AuthTy pe=cookie,url,ip,cpid&custid=s9106766&site=ehost-live (accessed September 10, 2011). 7. Encyclopedia Britannica. Baltimore. December 12, 2011. www.britannica.com.proxy.library.vcu.edu/EBchecked/topic/51014/Baltimore (accessed September 10, 2011). 8. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED - Economic Research. 2011. http://research.stlouisfed.org/ (accessed 11 18, 2011). 9. HowStuffWorks. HowStuffWorks "Geography of Baltimore". 2011. http://geography.howstuffworks.com/united-states/geography-of-baltimore.htm (accessed September 10, 2011). 10. LeDuc Media. Maryland Life Expectancy. 2011. http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/usa/maryland-all-races-death-rate (accessed 11 18, 2011). 11. STV, Inc, Redevelopment Economics, and CWS Consulting. "Westport Waterfront TOD Cost Benefit Analysis." Baltimore: Transportation/TIGER. August 23, 2010. http://www.baltimorecity.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=kcgdPzoNNvs%3d&tabid=1103 &mid=2823 (accessed December 12, 2011). 12. U.S. Census Bureau. 2008 MSA Business Patterns (NAICS) Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area. 2008. http://censtats.census.gov/cgibin/msanaic/msasect.pl (accessed September 23, 2011). 13. —. Historical Metropolitan Area Definitions. (accessed September 10, 2011). 14. —. U.S. Census Bureau. 2011. http://www.census.gov (accessed 11 18, 2011). 15. —. USA QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau. 2011. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html (accessed September 10, 2011). 16. —. Census Bureau. Maryland QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau. 2011. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/24000.html (accessed September 10, 2011). 17. United States Department of Labor. Mid-Atlantic Information Office. May 4, 2011. http://www.bls.gov/ro3/cesqbalt.htm (accessed September 10, 2011).

Appendices

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National and MSA Employment 2008: !

!"#$%&"'( )*+'%,*-&#(( .//0( 4%#"'(-*+'%,*-&#( :./;</=;>>:( Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Unclassified

1"'#$*%2-3 4%56%&(789( )*+'%,*-&#( .//0( :;:.:;<./(

167,039 373

"#$%#&'! 509 "($%)*(! &%*)(%"('! '(%*$"%'+$! "%'"+%#*)! '+%"')%&+&! )%)(,%$*(! (%)()%#()! "%+''%"'"!

6,182 82,715 66,829 55,167 140,597 38,751 26,208

62,126 2,196,314 21,606

,%*(#%,)&! 104,159 #%,,&%)*&! 24,516 '*%##)%++&! 82,042 (%')'%#$&! '&%#'&%#+"! #%*"$%()"! ''%$#"%(#$! +%)+#%"*(!

52,473 179,357 20,389 101,922 55,874

'+%(&,! 125

43 NAICS Data with Location Quotient !

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Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing

Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Unclassified !

&$'($)*! 509 &+'(%"+! )("%+(&+*! *+("'&(*,'! &(*&,($"%! *,(&*%(),)! %(%+-('"+! +(%+%($+%! &(,**(&*&!

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2,196,314 21,606 -("+$(-%)! 104,159

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$(--)(%")! 24,516

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6,182 82,715 66,829 55,167 140,597 38,751 26,208 62,126

52,473 179,357 20,389 101,922 55,874

*,(+)-! 125

"#--!

NAICS Data, Location Quotient, Basic Employment !

!"#$%&"'( )*+'%,*-& #((.//0( 4%#"'(-*+'%,*-&#( >./?@/A?BB >( Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction

Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services

Administration) Unclassified

! 4%#"'(1"6$;()*+'%,*-&#(

(

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2,196,314 21,606 -("+$(-%)! 104,159

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$(--)(%")! 24,516

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+(*%*($')! *)($*)($,&! $("&'(+%&! Accommodation and Food Services **('$&(+$'! Other Services (except Public ,(%,$(&"+!

Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

:%;"#$%&( 1"6$;( <=%#$-& )*+'%,*-& #( #(

167,039 373

&+'(%"+! )("%+(&+*! *+("'&(*,'! &(*&,($"%! *,(&*%(),)! %(%+-('"+! +(%+%($+%! &(,**(&*&!

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade

1"'#$*%2-3 4%56%&(789( )*+'%,*-&#( .//0( >?>.>?@./(

6,182 82,715 66,829 55,167 140,597 38,751 26,208 62,126

*#-"! *#*$! *#"&! "#'$! ! *#*"!

52,473 179,357 20,389 101,922 55,874

*,(+)-! 125 !

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45 !

NAICS Data, Location Quotient, Basic Employment, and Base Multiplier !

!"#$%&"'( 1"'#$*%2-3 :%;"#$%&( 1"6$;( )*+'%,*-&#(( 4%56%&(789( <=%#$-&#( )*+'%,*-&#( .//0( )*+'%,*-&#( .//0( 4%#"'(-*+'%,*-&#( >./?@/A?BB>( >?>.>?@./( ( ( Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and 167,039 373 "#$%! !

Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade

Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Unclassified

&$'($)*! 509 &+'(%"+! )("%+(&+*! *+("'&(*,'! &(*&,($"%! *,(&*%(),)! %(%+-('"+! +(%+%($+%! &(,**(&*&!

"#"'! !

-("+$(-%)! 104,159

*#"%! *#$)! "#,,! ! "#'&! ! "#')! ! "#'%! ! "#-$! ! *#"+! *#"&! *#%"!

$(--)(%")! 24,516

"#'*! !

*"($$%(,,)! 82,042

"#-&! !

+(*%*($')! *)($*)($,&! $("&'(+%&! **('$&(+$'! ,(%,$(&"+!

*#-"! *#*$! *#"&! "#'$! ! *#*"!

6,182 82,715 66,829 55,167 140,597 38,751 26,208

62,126 2,196,314 21,606

52,473 179,357 20,389 101,922 55,874

*,(+)-! 125 !

"#--! ! !

! !

Total Basic Employment(

*()"$! *($$,! $'(&*-!

$+(+$+! *'(,'"! *(*-)! ,($))!

@@?B.B(

( ( 1"6-(7='#$+'$-2( >>C.DA( ! ! !

$%'! *)(+,%!

46 Table with Berman Projections

!! 4%#"'(-*+'%,*-&#(

!"#$%&"'( )*+'%,*-&#(( .//0( >./HI/JHKK>(

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Unclassified

:%;"#$%&( <=%#$-&#( ((

(./>?(@%A(B2%5#C( F2%G-;#-E( $&(1"6$;(D&E=6#2$-6( 1"6$;(8-;#%2( 1"6$;( 1"6-E(%&(1-2*"&( )*+'%,*-&#( )*+'%,*-&#( F2%G-;#$%&6(( ./>?( (( (( !!

373

"#$%! !!

&$'($)*! &+'(%"+! )("%+(&+*! *+("'&(*.'! &(*&.($"%! *.(&*%().)!

509 6,182 82,715 66,829 55,167 140,597

"#"'! *#"%! *#$)! "#..! "#'&! "#')!

!! !! !!

%(%+/('"+! +(%+%($+%!

38,751 26,208

"#'%! !! "#/$! !!

!! !!

&(.**(&*&!

62,126

*#"+!

*()"$!

!&$*!!

!&$()%)!!

2,196,314

21,606

*#"&!

*($$.!

!+&)!!

!$*(')+!!

/("+$(/%)!

104,159

*#%"!

$'(&*/!

!$(&"%!!

!*"&()&+!!

$(//)(%")!

24,516

"#'*! !!

*"($$%(..)!

82,042

"#/&! !!

+(*%*($')!

52,473

*#/"!

$+(+$+!

!*(.$$!!

!.+(''.!!

*)($*)($.&!

179,357

*#*$!

*'(.'"!

!%(/%+!!

!*/%($""!!

$("&'(+%&!

20,389

*#"&!

*(*/)!

!%&'!!

!$"(/./!!

**('$&(+$'!

101,922

"#'$! !!

167,039

.(%.$(&"+! *.(+)/! !

1"'#$*%2-3 4%56%&(789( )*+'%,*-&#( .//0( >H>.>HI./(

!! $%'! *)(+.%!

*#*"! "#//! !! ./>?(4%#"'()*+'%,*-&#(LC"&M-( 55,874 125

!,&-! !'*"!!

!! .($))!

!&(*)&!! !/+(&$.!!

!! !&*.!!

!.&(%/'!! !!

(>>HI??((

!.'&(/$.!!