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Nuclear Diplomacy
Strategic Vision vol. 7, no. 39 (August, 2018) Nuclear Diplomacy
North Korean nuclear program essential to warming ties on Korean Peninsula
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Chien-Chung Huang & Guang-Chang Bian
Armored vehicles roll through the streets of Pyongyang during the annual Victory Day Parade.
photo: Stefan Krawsoski
On 12 July, 2018, US President Donald Trump and the Supreme Leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, often called North Korea) Kim Jong Un held a historic summit at the Capella Resort on Singapore’s Sentosa Island, where the two leaders signed a joint statement. This historic meeting between the United States and North Korea was a reflection of their respective national interests. After three rounds of talks, four statements were made by the United States and North Korea. First, that the United States and the DPRK committed to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity. Second, that the United States and the DPRK would make joint efforts to build a lasting and stable peace on the Korean Peninsula. Third, the two parties reaffirmed the Panmunjom Declaration of 27 April, 2018, in which the DPRK expressed its commitment to work toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the United States and the DPRK committed to recovering the remains of American soldiers declared prisoners of war and missing in action dating back to the Korean War (1950-1953), including the immediate repatriation of those already identified. This article aims to examine, based on the background and the conclusions of the summit, the strategic process and outstanding measures taken by North Korea to hold a summit with the United States. Kim Jong Un, the third-generation leader of North Korea, took power in 2012, after his father Kim Jong Il died in 2011. He is also the highest-ranking leader of the party, the government, and the military. He has dealt harshly with people who disagree with him or threaten his position. Several military generals have been executed to ensure his control of the army, for example.
US President Donald J. Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae In arrive at the Blue House accompanied by their wives on November 17, 2017.
photo: Shealah Craighead
Inflammatory language
In diplomatic terms, Kim’s habitual use of exaggerated words has been criticized by many international relations scholars, security experts, and diplomats. However, the use of inflammatory language has successfully earned Kim a place in the spotlight of international media attention. Despite his extreme words and actions, some people still admire and respect this 30-something year-old leader who has used efficient methods to solidify his power over the military and the regime in such a short time. After stabilizing the regime, Kim Jong Un began to devote the country’s resources to the development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. This is an inhumane policy. North Korea blocks its citizens’ access to almost all foreign news, and very little information passes the other way as well, resulting in the world’s knowledge of this country being fragmentary. The general perception is that the people in North Korea suffer for daily needs, and the economy is in severe trouble. Most of the materials, resources, and energy keeping the economy afloat are provided by China.
Despite the people’s livelihoods being hampered by such a difficult environment, the regime has been actively devoting resources toward developing nuclear weapons since the 1960s. It believes that possessing nuclear weapons can threaten South Korea and prevent the United States from intervening in the historical imperative of unification. Since 2006, North Korea has conducted six nuclear weapons tests, four of which were executed during Kim Jong Un’s reign. Both the testing frequency and the scale of the nuclear weapons have gradually increased since Kim took office: The fourth nuclear test was conducted on 6 January, 2016 and North Korea declared that this was the first hydrogen bomb test.
Despite the fact that the United Nations Security Council almost immediately passed economic sanctions in March 2016, Pyongyang conducted another nuclear test on September 9 the same year, declaring this to have been its largest nuclear test to date. In order to deter North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons and nuclear tests, the United States, in April 2017, sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the vicinity of the Korean peninsula. In order to counter the United States, North Korea test-fired a missile with a range of more than 900 kilometers—a range that could hit parts of Hawaiiand the continental United States. The timing for the test was carefully chosen: the Fourth of July, America’s National Day. This sent a strong signal to show that North Korea has the ability to hit US soil.
In addition, North Korea conducted a sixth nuclear test of hydrogen bomb-type device on 3 September,2017. At this time, the international community no longer had to speculate about North Korea’s capability to manufacture nuclear weapons. Surprisingly, after demonstrating its capabilities to the world, North Korea began to demonstrate good will toward South Korea and the United States, and successively launched a series of peaceful dialogues.
Marine General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, receives a briefing from a South Korean soldier near the DMZ.
photo: Dominique Pineiro
Developing nuclear weapons is central to North Korea’s strategy. Though it faces punitive sanctions from various countries, developing nuclear weapons is an optimal and effective strategy to prevent Pyongyang from being threatened militarily. North Korea’s strategy can be further characterized by three approaches.
First, North Korea has successfully developed a viable threat photo: Dan Scavino against its enemy. According to management theory, the maximum capacity of a chain is determined by the weakest point - or, as the old saying goes, a chain is only as strong as its weakest ling. North Korea's livelihood is withdrawn and the overall military power is much weaker than the United States and South Korea, but North Korea knows that all the developed countries are afraid of nuclear war.
President Trump shakes hands with Kim Jong-un, June 12th 2018.
photo: Dan Scavino
The weakest link
In particular, economic and trade exchanges and technological cooperation between countries are vital, and therefore states are committed to avoiding the outbreak of large-scale wars. Therefore, although the link between the United States, Japan, and South Korea is powerful, their desire to avoid large-scale war is still - in Pyongyang's estimation - the weakest link. Conflicts with countries that possess nuclear weapons mean large-scale casualties and destruction. Thus, the development of nuclear weapon by North Korea has the effect of threatening and deterring these countries.
In March of 2018, Kim Jong Un met three times with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, and on 27 April, he met with South Korean President Moon Jae In at Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone. In addition to reporting to his ally in China, these meetings were also designed to extend an olive branch to Seoul in the hopes of reducing the risk of military confrontation between the two Koreas. In such a situation, the US proposal to impose punishing sanctions on North Korea has been slightly reduced in Northeast Asia, and has opened the door for President Trump's meeting with Kim Jong Un.
US Air Force Senior Airman Javon Bryant, a weapons load crew member, tightens a bolt on an NF-16 Fighting Falcon at Osan Air Base.
photo: Timothy Dischinat
Third, North Korea employs a fuzzy strategy by making value promises, which have enabled it to achieve tangible benefits. Although the four points of consensus of the US and North Korea summits are basically empty political declarations, the meeting with Trump was a diplomatic victory for Kim Jung Un. After successfully implementing these nuclear tests, nuclear weapons have been successfully developed, analysts believe. Kim suddenly acts as the savior of the world by destroying all nuclear and missiles facilities. Even if all hardware facilities are destroyed, the international community will still fear North Korea, because it has already manufactured and concealed enough small nuclear bombs to prepare for future combat needs. This is a bright, dark surface that creates vague fears. Therefore, North Korea has a lot of bargaining power for future negotiations.
In addition to the United States and North Korea, Singapore, the host country to the summit, also demonstrated its national strength. Singapore is a small country that was able to gain the trust of hostile nations and hold a high-profile summit on its soil. The message is that, in addition to its central role in economic and international trade, Singapore can also play an important role as an emissary for peace in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and the South China Sea.
Singapore and Taiwan also have strong rivals and lack natural resources. Although their security environments are different, Singapore’s strategic flexibility in internal affairs, economics, national security, and diplomacy is worth study by leaders and policymakers in Taiwan.
North Korea is surrounded by China and the United States, Japan, and South Korea, and no matter whether it is economically or militarily inferior to these countries, the Kim regime has mastered the ability to foment fear in advanced countries which seek to avoid large wars. Although North Korea is living under an absolute disadvantage, striving to develop nuclear weapons was the only way to command the attention of larger powers. In addition to helping the regime avoid invasion, these weapons have now been leveraged as a means of demonstrating good will and contributing to the well-being of the North Korean people.
Guang-chang Bian is a professor at the ROC National Defense University. He can be reached for comment at drbian1977@gmail.com
